Tough Decisions Are On Deck for the Twins

Although I mentioned this on the wrong thread, I feel there is no reason to keep Gordon. There are Nick Gordon clones available here and there. He is taking up a spot that could be filled with a more productive option. Bring up Julien. His OBP will be much higher in the long run and you don't lose that much flexibility.

49 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Toss Gordon keep Castro.  Kepler hasnt hit since 2019 but provides defense.  Unfortunately this team sorely needs offense so he has to be next man up to be next man gone.

Even if Kepler was the best defender in baseball, his offensive shortcomings aren't worth it. And, he's not anywhere close to the best defender in baseball - in fact, the whole "Kepler plays good defense" statement is debatable at this point. People keep saying that but only because it's something we've been told, there's really no hard data to back that up anymore. And he certainly doesn't pass the eye test. The guy's washed up and the sooner the Twins cut bait, the better - please, let's stop pretending he's Ozzie Smith already. 

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's been better than both.....

Larnach has been hurt the last two years. I'm in no hurry to judge him at this point. Let's see where he is in July.

This type of statement has been said about Larnach for the past 3 years. He's been hurt a LOT, and the only times he's been given the opportunity to play for long stretches, he's been very bad. Anyone can cherry pick a couple good weeks - just look at the final stats he's put up any year he's played. It's not pretty!  

We are fans, sure. But we have to be adults and remember that just because you want him to be good, doesn't mean he is good or will be good. Let's all stop pretending that 27 year-old guys who have been in the league for 3 years are "prospects". 

If you put Larnach's numbers next to some unfamiliar name in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, and you wouldn't think twice about him. Look up Larnach's name in the similarity index on statcast, and you'll see: Kyle Garlic, Nelson Velazquez, and Kerry Carpenter as the most similar matches. Are we still excited? Why? Because he mashed college pitching at Oregon State 6 years ago?

We've been saying "Wait and see" on Larnach forever. Dude, we've waited. And we've seen. And I don't think we're going to get much out of this guy and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we'll be. 

12 minutes ago, bighat said:

Even if Kepler was the best defender in baseball, his offensive shortcomings aren't worth it. And, he's not anywhere close to the best defender in baseball - in fact, the whole "Kepler plays good defense" statement is debatable at this point. People keep saying that but only because it's something we've been told, there's really no hard data to back that up anymore. And he certainly doesn't pass the eye test. The guy's washed up and the sooner the Twins cut bait, the better - please, let's stop pretending he's Ozzie Smith already. 

Are you actually looking at the hard data though?

Kepler was 6th among all outfielders in OAA last year, and 13th in 2021.  I'm not saying he's Ozzie Smith in the outfield but he's clearly a good defender and there is plenty of recent hard data to back that up. 

And his offense was about 5% worse than the league average the last two years. Overall that's still a decent player.  I do think he is easily expendable, but he's hardly been a drag on the team overall.

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's a fair stance, we don't agree. I'm not sure which player you want to see more of than him right now? 

I'd like to see Kirilloff starting in RF every day for the Twins, effective immediately. 

I don't think any of us want to lose Gordon for nothing, especially after he showed last year that he can be a useful bench piece. However, with the current makeup of the roster, I just don't see how he stays on the roster all year without an abundance of injuries. With Kirilloff raking at AAA, Royce Lewis due to come back in less than 2 months, and Farmer likely returning in a month or so, I can't imagine Gordon remaining on the team for the entire season. 

Gordon's play has been atrocious and every swing Kirilloff takes for the Saints is a waste, especially with how listless our offense has been. I would cut bait with Gordon right now, knowing that he doesn't have a long-term roster spot anyway. Lewis can replace 110% of his versatility (especially since we actually trust Lewis to play SS) when he's healthy, and Julien or Wallner can come up and replace Gordon's lefty bat if injury strikes. 

Kirilloff should be our everyday starting 1B against RHP, sliding Gallo to LF, and Larnach and Kepler rotating in RF. When Kirilloff needs a day off (which could be fairly frequent with his wrist injury), Gallo can slide back to 1B, with Larnach and Kepler in the corner OF spots. Additionally, the Twins have avoided deplying Kepler in CF because he prefers to play RF, but why should we care where Kepler prefers to play? At this point, he should be our 4th OFer, and should be treated as such -- Jake Cave didn't get to choose to exclusively play RF. Kepler should start some games in CF when a RHP is on the mound to stack the lineup with lefty bats. 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's been better than both.....

Larnach has been hurt the last two years. I'm in no hurry to judge him at this point. Let's see where he is in July.

Well I would say that Wade's 2021 season was the best so far(he was 21st in the MVP voting) and Baddoo's 21 season is the second best season. Other than that those two have been terrible and Larnach hasn't been much better. Again, I thought the point was they were let go because the thought was that Larnach and maybe AK were superior to them and as this point those two haven't been competent major league players or just barely. I believe Larnach will be better (thus they did the right thing keeping him over the other two) then either of those two but he needs to get better and a hurry, sending a 26 year old to the minors is not a good sign for his career.

Maybe it is time to play Gallo in centerfield against right handed pitchers when Kirilloff comes up. Taylor has done a good job out there.

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

"I feel pretty strongly that if we didn't have a ton of left handed bats in the system - Larnach is going to have a better long term career than Gordon."  Please clarify.

Simply meaning that because of so many left handed corner outfielders in our system - Larnach may indeed get traded.  But - I also feel that when all is said and done, Larnach will have a better MLB career than Gordon - maybe just not with the Twins.

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe it is time to play Gallo in centerfield against right handed pitchers when Kirilloff comes up. Taylor has done a good job out there.

It's early but Gallo's sprint speed is not good this year and that's continuing a multi-year decline.  I really do not think he is a ceterfielder anymore, and his arm is propping up below average range in the corners as well.

I think Kepler would be a good enough part-time backup there, but he's never been comfortable in center, and the team has seemed to have given up on the issue.

1 hour ago, bighat said:

I'd like to see Kirilloff starting in RF every day for the Twins, effective immediately. 

Toss up? We've actually been waiting longer for Kirilloff than Larnach. I don't honestly think any of us can tell the difference. #1 pick in '16, #1 pick in '18. Still waiting on both, and neither have separated themselves from the other. Why an automatic put him in RF for Kirilloff, and why a send him down for Larnach?

15 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Simply meaning that because of so many left handed corner outfielders in our system - Larnach may indeed get traded.  But - I also feel that when all is said and done, Larnach will have a better MLB career than Gordon - maybe just not with the Twins.

I can't see them trading Larnach.  That might work this year but next year Gallo / Kepler and Taylor are gone.  I will continue to hope they find a trade partner for Kepler or Gordon or just cut Gordon.

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where does Julien play? Gordon can sit on the bench, no biggie. Sitting Julien more days than playing him is not a good idea. That said, that guy should have a 1B glove, if Polanco is healthy, that's Julien's opportunity with Buxton the DH.

Yeah, that's just the problem.  I think the take on Julien learning 1B is a solid one, but I think that's probably going to take some time.  Remember the original plan was to have him learn one of the corner outfield spots, as that seemed to be the more immediate route to playing time.

Except we have a logjam there, too, which is the whole point of this topic.  I wonder if the front office truly anticipated that Byron Buxton was going to be the everyday DH heading into May, or if it was more of a situation where the knee was barking around Opening Day, but they'd hoped it would clear up after a week or two and he could go back in the field.  Because losing the option to DH guys like Larnach, Julien, and Kiriloff makes it significantly harder to get the young guys regular playing time.  Julien is not going to "replace" Jorge Polanco.  And, shockingly, Kepler just started 7 games in a row after coming back from injury, until he finally sat against a lefty (P. Corbin).  (FWIW, Kepler's splits in 2022 were somewhat even, but he was trash against lefties in 2020 and 2021).

It's not just that guys like Kepler are bad.  It's that when you bring a veteran back like that, they're so much harder to get out of the lineup when they inevitably slump.  400+ AB's this year from Larnach, Julien, or Kiriloff would be SO much more valuable than getting the same exact production from Kepler in their place.

All about options and Larnach has them. If he starts to tank anymore, he will justify keeping Gordon and Kepler, for the time being. Kirilloff would push Gallo back to the outfield. 

Farmer pushes Castro out. I was hoping Castro would give the Twins some base running. Not that he has had opportunities, but that was his best method for staying with the Twins.

Polanco could be an interesting option going forth. Does he hit well enough to keep around for at least another season? Where does that put folks like Lee and Lewis and Julien in the scheme of things, not to mention Martin.

Of course, everyone has to excel a bit better with the bats. Thank goodness the Twins rotation ahs kept the teams in games.

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We're worried Gordon would be claimed if waived? Why?

 

This isnt a tough call. I have trouble understanding how anyone would prefer Nick Gordon to Trevor Larnach. Nick Gordon wasn't, isn't and never will be someone who holds down a MLB position. He doesn't hit well enough.

Larnach has a chance to be an impact bat.

 

Nick Gordon 2021 OPS+ 2022 OPS+ 113 [443 PA] 2023 OPS+ -24

Max Kepler 2021 OPS+ 98 2022 OPS+ 93 2023 OPS+ 81

Trevor Larnach 2021 OPS+ 88 2022 OPS+ 104 2023 OPS+ 100

Joey Gallo 2021 OPS+ 93 2022 OPS+ 79  2023 OPS+ 193

One statement is true: Of all the full seasons listed above, the highest OPS+ of all was Nick Gordon.

Another truth is that OOTP had Nick Gordon rated as a 70 in LF using the 20-80.

I’d go with an outfield of Gordon, Taylor and Gallo and give Lewis and Martin and Wallner their chance to break in as warranted.

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not so tough - Gordon's composite for three years is 

250

.295

.384

.679

 

Trevor Larnach for the same period 

227

.318

.371

.689

 

We can cut both at this stage.

And Kepler - for those same three years has been 

.222

.312

.353

.664

We can cut him too.

Willi Castro for that three year period is

.229

.278

.359

.637

Yes we can cut him too.

So what is the hard decision - is it which one goes first?  

There is room for Kiriloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien without any trouble at all. 

Marcus Semien was traded away after his first 927 Pas.  At the time his stat line was .251 / .304 / .396.  There are many other similar stories.  Many players need a few hundred or a thousand PAs to get going at the MLB level.  Obviously, history has some predictive value but there are far too many success stories after a slow start to conclude a player will never be good because of a stat line.  Talk about making decisions based on a spreadsheet.

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Could we get a halfway decent A ball prospect for Gordon or a 17-18 year old DSL player?  That would be a more dignified option than cutting him.

Yeah, I don't understand why this idea isn't a lot more common. I mean, if a couple months of Nelson Cruz can fetch Joe Ryan, Gordon might be able to get a couple of lottery tickets in return.

I'b be a lousy GM, because I'd pretty much ignore where we are in the standings and look to trade players with marginal utility whenever a more promising replacement was surfacing in AAA. So, yeah, at the deadline, I'm dangling Gordon, Kepler, Pagan, Gallo, Solano, and maybe even Miranda, none of whom are likely difference-makers and all of whom can probably be adequately replaced by Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Garlick (for now), some combo of Sands, Henriquez, Headrick et al in relief, maybe Lee and Austin Lee when rosters expand... I say trade trade trade and hope for another Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran or three. Ignore the standings. Polanco goes over the winter if Lee looks ready to stick.

21 minutes ago, bird said:

Yeah, I don't understand why this idea isn't a lot more common. I mean, if a couple months of Nelson Cruz can fetch Joe Ryan, Gordon might be able to get a couple of lottery tickets in return.

I'b be a lousy GM, because I'd pretty much ignore where we are in the standings and look to trade players with marginal utility whenever a more promising replacement was surfacing in AAA. So, yeah, at the deadline, I'm dangling Gordon, Kepler, Pagan, Gallo, Solano, and maybe even Miranda, none of whom are likely difference-makers and all of whom can probably be adequately replaced by Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Garlick (for now), some combo of Sands, Henriquez, Headrick et al in relief, maybe Lee and Austin Lee when rosters expand... I say trade trade trade and hope for another Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran or three. Ignore the standings. Polanco goes over the winter if Lee looks ready to stick.

I would take your brand of  GM.  Continuously producing long-term value makes for sustainable success.  Pretty much what the Rays do.  Anyone can trade the future for the present.  That does not take great skill.   Balancing the two .... Not so easy.

It’s mind blowing to me that some are still clinging onto to Gordon.  Most have come around.

He can’t hit.  Never has been able to, aside from the outlier last year.  If you were able to get that from him consistently, he may pass as a platoon, replacement level guy.  We have 4-5-6 of those guys in AAA right now at their floor.  He has no defensive value whatsoever, don’t know why his “ability” to take up space at multiple positions matters.

Great guy by all accounts.  But, there’s a lot of great people out there that don’t get free rides in the MLB.

Wallner is a much better player right now.  Larnach is a much better player right now.  Julien is a much better player right now.  Kirilloff is a much better player right now.  It’s absurd to have a list of guys like that stuck in AAA for Gordon.

If he catches in and succeeds somewhere else, good for him.  I hope he does.  But, he’ll probably go unclaimed.  Nobody is banging down the door for a nearly 30 year old with no high end tool or upside.  40 man spots are too valuable.

6 minutes ago, gman said:

Larnach leads the team in RBI's. He leads the team in walks. He is third in OBP among players with over 50 plate appearances. And he is hitting 411 with runners in scoring position. The  team is having scoring. AND SOME OF YOU ARE SAYING WE SHOULD GET RID OF HIM. What exactly are you looking at?

And they want to keep Nick Gordon n his place.  I don’t know what is going on either, but it’s gone off the rails.  Maybe ergot poisoning.