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  • Twins Roster Built on Defense and Rule Changes


    Alex Boxwell

    With defense being more crucial than ever after the changes to the shift rules, the Twins are more positioned to benefit than any other team in baseball.

    Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

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    Neither is inherently evil, whether it's the pitch clock or your politics. The application of both is where it can get ugly quickly, and things may start to get a little awkward at family gatherings, and yes, I'm still talking about the pitch clock.

    Love it or hate it, the new rules are here for 2023, and the Twins have built a team that can take advantage of the new era of baseball. With the shift changes, the pick-off rules, bigger bases, and the fact that the full season for an MLB player is roughly 150 games, the Twins used these facts to help coordinate roster moves.

    The Twins offseason was a roller coaster ride for shmucks like me trying to figure out what was going on with this team. Now that the dust has settled, the picture is more visible. The front office has constructed a team with elite defense and some left-handed bats that can benefit from an open right side for the first time in their careers.

    Defensively, teams with elite athletes that can cover ground and make superstar plays, rather than having a spray chart in their back pocket telling them where to play to create outs, will benefit the most. Athletes will be back making more outs, not data points. Having an elite defensive shortstop becomes way more attractive now that there will be a premium on being able to range to the left and right and make big-time throws. 

    Now that shortstops can't swing to the other side of second base, we will see Carlos Correa (aka C4) ranging to his left and making that spin throw on the right side of second base a couple of times this year. I'm excited to see shortstops limited in their shifting ability and see some of the most impressive athletes in the world be able to show it off. The Twins get to be, arguably, the biggest beneficiary.

    The Twins also brought in Joey Gallo, who we have seen with a wider stance, driving the ball to all fields early in spring. Even this tiny sample size is encouraging. With no shift and pitchers not having as much incentive to throw the cutter inside because there is no iron curtain on the right side, we could see Gallo finally flourish. With a simplified Gallo approach, fans may see a fun uptick from your dad's least favorite player (trademark pending).

    Joey Gallo also fits the mold of the elite defenders that the team has placed a high value on; Michael A Taylor and the already-established Kepler/Buxton outfield combo may be worthy of a Soul Patrol-level nickname. The shift doesn't impact the outfield as much, but it's worth noting that the Twins attacked the defensive side of this team with the thought of improving their offense too, or the banned shift may provide that offensive uptick on its own.

    Every team in the league has abandoned the idea of a guy playing 162 games. (In 2022, only Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Dansby Swanson played in all 162 games.) The depth and positional flexibility will make Baldelli's job pretty simple (that thought may get the old-timers to sleep at night). 

    The Twins have solid defenders that can play all over. Farmer, Gordon, Solano, Gallo, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Taylor (fans will see him and Buxton in the same outfield) can all play multiple positions. So much tinkering can be done with this lineup and not lose the edge created defensively. There are quality options when a player gets a day off due to injuries, rest, or just putting the best nine out there on a given day.

    The Twins aren't a finished product as it stands right now. More moves may be coming, but the Minnesota Twins will defend as well as anybody in the league as a unit. Great defense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark has the potential to be a phenomenal winning formula. It's getting to be time for the rubber to meet the road. I'm excited to start seeing the payoff of all the moves and top-tier defense returning in the MLB.

    There is no doubt in my mind that Twins management took the new rules into account when building an elite defensive ball club for 2023. Regarding the rule changes, you can see the glass half empty or half full, but we should know by now that the Twins front office sees a glass that was made too big. They dealt with reality and facts and used that logic to create a competitive product for 2023.

    Go, Twins!

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    Very interesting, thanks.

    Count me among those who are in favor of the pitch clock.  Recall that first game Varland pitched last fall in Yankee stadium.  Seemed like each half inning was over shortly after it began.  Loved that pace.  Better yet, if 6:40 weeknight games are over by 9 and before dark, some of us old timers may think about seeing a couple rather than just Thursday afternoons.

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    Given the three true outcomes approach of today's hitters, I'm not totally sold on the defensive athleticism becoming the premium it once was, but I do think there will be a slight resurgence in it.  Particularly in the infield.  And I like that a lot.  I'm just not convinced that it's going to be all that noticeable generally speaking.  

    That said, the FO clearly thinks that it will be a bigger difference based on their acquisitions this offseason.  I'll be happy to be wrong if that logic pays off and a good defensive team makes a significant difference.  And I'd rather have a good defensive club than a bad one any day anyway. 

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    I'm excited about this defense. Though, I'm curious what the range numbers will look like now that Carlos can't start a play on the grass and leverage his big arm. Hopefully that doesn't hurt him too much. (Thankfully we're out of the dome, where a shortstop, like Gagne, was best setting up behind the infield line in shallow left-center.)

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    3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    The defense wasn't a problem last year, I think they way overcompensated with the free agents and trades. This team struggled on offense last year. That should have been a higher priority. 

    While I don't disagree the offense was a problem, when you rely on someone like Celestino as a primary backup at multiple positions, you have a defensive problem as well.

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    The Twins aren't the Yankees or Dodgers and, thus, will not be able to afford as much pitching, offense, and defense as they want. They have to make a plan and move the chips where they can to back the plan up. I'm sure poor hitting defensive studs are much cheaper than awesome hitting but poor defending players. I don't know if the plan will work, but as much as I wished they had more average hitters, I'm glad they are trying something new and sticking with it.  The rotation looks to be one of the best I've ever seen. Perhaps they have no Nolan Ryan-style aces, but they have 5 or 6 number 2s. Even Ober, who looks to be the cast-off would have been the team ace in the Nolasco years. They could use better middle relievers and better hitters, but they very well might have the best rotation and all-around defense in the MLB. 

     

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    "Now that shortstops can't swing to the other side of second base, we will see Carlos Correa (aka C4) ranging to his left and making that spin throw on the right side of second base a couple of times this year. I'm excited to see shortstops limited in their shifting ability and see some of the most impressive athletes in the world be able to show it off. The Twins get to be, arguably, the biggest beneficiary."

    That's what I say, IMO Correa was bored with the shift. I'm looking forward this season to see more spectacular plays at SS. Also 2B will be a ton more difficult with the ban shift.

    Hope they make use of Molitor's session on base running & will be interesting to see how teams will capitalize on Jeffers arm and seems everybody has adapted to the pitch clock.

    Seems like Kepler & Gallo are taking advantage of shift ban already.

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    54 minutes ago, dberthia said:

    While I don't disagree the offense was a problem, when you rely on someone like Celestino as a primary backup at multiple positions, you have a defensive problem as well.

    Celestino's bat was a bigger problem than Celestino's glove.

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    1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Another great article, Alex. Thank you. I'm looking forward to your next article.

    I concur.  I've always loved to hear what the guys who play or have played the game (especially at a really high level) think and how they process what is going on. 

    Really appreciate the great work Alex.

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    2 hours ago, Muppet said:

    The Twins aren't the Yankees or Dodgers and, thus, will not be able to afford as much pitching, offense, and defense as they want. They have to make a plan and move the chips where they can to back the plan up. I'm sure poor hitting defensive studs are much cheaper than awesome hitting but poor defending players. I don't know if the plan will work, but as much as I wished they had more average hitters, I'm glad they are trying something new and sticking with it.  The rotation looks to be one of the best I've ever seen. Perhaps they have no Nolan Ryan-style aces, but they have 5 or 6 number 2s. Even Ober, who looks to be the cast-off would have been the team ace in the Nolasco years. They could use better middle relievers and better hitters, but they very well might have the best rotation and all-around defense in the MLB. 

     

    5 or 6 #2 starting pitchers? Which pitcher would be a #2 for the Yanks, Astros, Guardians, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Rays. Those are the teams the Twins have to beat in the AL to get to a title run. Now if you said the Twins have a solid core of #3 or 4 starters, I'd agree. And the last teams I remember who've won it all with pitching and defense was 2015 Royals who had a lights out bullpen those 2 years. So that being said, I think at this juncture the Twins might be better defensively and their pitching too. But will it be enough? And will they be able to score more runs consistently. Because that's just as important. 

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    Another important piece I hope to touch on more as the season gets going is the base running aspect of these new rules. I think the stolen base is very much a lost art and a way this team could also take advantage of pitchers being hamstrung in their ability to throw over/dictate pace. Outside of Buxton we don't really have any true burners on the paths but I think guys like Kepler, Polanco, Taylor, and Buxton should all be double digit stolen base guys with pitchers having to rely on pitch outs (which they don't want to do) to mitigate the run game. Correa and Buxton obviously you have to leverage injury concerns as well but I really think there's going to be times where heady baserunners will take bags standing up.

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    2 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

    Another important piece I hope to touch on more as the season gets going is the base running aspect of these new rules. I think the stolen base is very much a lost art and a way this team could also take advantage of pitchers being hamstrung in their ability to throw over/dictate pace. Outside of Buxton we don't really have any true burners on the paths but I think guys like Kepler, Polanco, Taylor, and Buxton should all be double digit stolen base guys with pitchers having to rely on pitch outs (which they don't want to do) to mitigate the run game. Correa and Buxton obviously you have to leverage injury concerns as well but I really think there's going to be times where heady baserunners will take bags standing up.

    Those extra large bases will be just as important in taking extra bases. I'd hope the Twins concentrate on taking the bases they can take, whether it is by stolen bases or better base running.

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    Is Target Field a Pitcher's Park?  Not saying it's not, but would like to see some stats to back up that statement.  As an old-timer myself, I'm looking forward to seeing how these rule changes impact the game, hopefully for the better.

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    2 hours ago, silverslugger said:

    Is Target Field a Pitcher's Park?  Not saying it's not, but would like to see some stats to back up that statement.  As an old-timer myself, I'm looking forward to seeing how these rule changes impact the game, hopefully for the better.

    The "Park Factor" shown at ESPN's site has the Minnesota park as a mild-to-strong pitcher's park, i.e. below 1.0, depending on the year.  The yearly variability means you shouldn't take it as anything more than a general trend for guidance.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2022

    If you follow it back to the Metrodome days, we used to have a hitter's advantage instead.

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    I was expecting some sort of statistical support for the idea that the Twins stand to benefit "more than any other team"

    Instead this article just rehashes a litany of previous, more specific articles that actually do provide some statistical analysis of defense, the shift limitations, Gallo, the pitch clock, etc.

    I completely agree they stand to benefit, but I don't have the context of the 29 other teams and was hoping some of that would be provided here. I'm disappointed there was 0 statistical support provided for the main assertion of the article, and that there was little context given for how they benefit more than other teams.

     

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    I liked your article even though it turned out to be pretty much just an opinion column.  But it was a very interesting read.  I too am excited for the start of the season now less than 3 weeks away; even though I'm one of the thousands of fans that still cannot see the team on tv.  Anyway, if the team stays relatively injury free and if the players live up to all their hype,  it could be an interesting one.  It will be fun to see if Baldelli can actually manage a healthy major league team with a record payroll.  He may not be on the hot seat this year but on the warm seat especially if we don't see great improvement over the past two seasons of boring and undisciplined baseball.  Come on Rocco we are pulling for you.

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    1 hour ago, AlGoreRythm said:

    I was expecting some sort of statistical support for the idea that the Twins stand to benefit "more than any other team"

    Instead this article just rehashes a litany of previous, more specific articles that actually do provide some statistical analysis of defense, the shift limitations, Gallo, the pitch clock, etc.

    I completely agree they stand to benefit, but I don't have the context of the 29 other teams and was hoping some of that would be provided here. I'm disappointed there was 0 statistical support provided for the main assertion of the article, and that there was little context given for how they benefit more than other teams.

     

    Aww man, my high school English teacher is here.

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    I'm not sold on this best defense in the major leagues. They have proven players at SS and CF in Correa Buxton and Young. Solid in the corner outfield spots with Kepler and Gallo, but their hitting is suspect. 1B, 2B and 3B are all questionable. Polanco has limited range with his knee and 3rd and 1st base are being manned by Kiriloff and Miranda. Neither of those 2 with a proven glove. Miranda looked lost defensively last year. Kiriloff hasn't played enough although one poster suggested he's a potential gold glover. Thats just wishful thinking. There's no evidence to back up a statement like that.. With Farmer and Solano they'd be stronger defensively if that's the Twins plan. They might lead ESPN top 10 plays this year, but who cares. Especially if they lose games by scores of 4-3 or 3-2. Then the narrative will change. Twins defense and pitching are keeping them in games, but where's the offense?

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    For all the people attacking the lack of offense last year, I feel like they forget how our expect top offensive guys were hurt the second half of the season.  Buck and Polanco were expected to be 2 of our best hitters, and both missed a lot of time.  AK and Larnach who we had some counting on missed most of season.  I think part of the hope is that just greater health should improve the offense. 

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    1 hour ago, Alex Boxwell said:

    Aww man, my high school English teacher is here.

    I'm just glancing at Fangraphs, and comparing Farmer, Solano, Arraez, and Polanco, at second base.

    No doubt the Farmer and Solano signings were highly praised on this website, but I'm not convinced either of those players, glancing at their profiles, is any better than Luis Arraez at fielding that position. In that sense, the Farmer and Solano signings just look like ordinary free agents that would be signed in any other year, not sneaky signings designed to get a leg up on other teams with the new rules in mind. 

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    I appreciate and want good defense to help my pitching staff, and shorten innings. But, if I had to choose between big offense and great defense, I think I'd still choose the big offense. That being said, there is a difference between average defense and a poor defense that just gives away too many outs. 

    I don't think the defense was bad last year until all the injuries hit and the field was being taken by too many AAAA level players. And to be fair, that was a big problem with the offense last year as well. And yes, better health can greatly affect both this year. But Gallo, Taylor, Vazquez, Farmer, and Solano all offer solid to very good defense, and should raise the bar defensively, while providing just better overall roster construction and flexibility.

    I am mostly in favor of the limited shift rules. I'm not a complete traditionalist by any means, but the overshifting felt boring to me. But I'm not convinced the changes are going to be huge. The SS can still play pretty much even with 2B. An OF can still shade and even bring a man to play a rover type position in a short OF role. Will there be an affect? I believe so, but remain unconvinced it will show major results.

    For the record, I DON'T LIKE the SS and 2B having to stay on the dirt. MLB wants to limit the extreme shifts and return to more traditional alignments with 2 INF on each side of the 2B? Fine. But infielders have sometimes played on the grass since the game was invented. The dirt rule I'm not crazy about.

    *Love the pitch clock. The game will move better and be more exciting and just like their milb bretheren, ML players will adjust and this won't even be talked about in a few months.

    *I like the larger bases for player safety. Not sure it will make a major difference in SB when all is said and done. Might make it a bit easier to avoid a tag or over-sliding a base, but will a combined 3" shorter distance between bases make that much of a difference? Remember, the defender can potentially be an 1 1/2" closer to tagging the runner on a good throw.

    *I'm uncertain about the limited throws to 1B. 4-5-6 tosses to 1B is BORING and slows the game down insufferably. But is 2 throws "fair"? I think this rule might increase SB attempts more than the larger bags. And that just might be a good change.

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    10 hours ago, Alex Boxwell said:

    Aww man, my high school English teacher is here.

    Are you trying to make a point?

    Opinion articles are great, but when you use the framing of "the Twins are more positioned to benefit than any other team in baseball" in the first paragraph, it's not unreasonable to expect that assertion to be supported in some fashion.

    Here's hoping you'll take the criticism constructively as it's meant, rather than making light of it for whatever reason.

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