Twins 6, Blue Jays 3: Patient Lineup, Stingy Bullpen Salvage Series

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K (89 Pitches, 47 Strikes, 52.8%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (5), Christian Vazquez (2)
Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (.169), Christian Vazquez (.165), Willi Castro (.101)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Toronto Blue Jays are on a charmed streak right now, taking the first two games of the series at Target Field, with the second game particularly impressive as they scored against both Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in high-leverage moments en route to a 5-4 victory. To salvage the final game of the series, the Twins turned to Joe Ryan, their starter most prone to being bitten by "bad luck." As Twins fans, we know this to be partially self-inflicted, as the scouting report on Ryan is clearly to rattle him, with him having the tendency to lose focus after missed strike calls, infield hits and misplays.

Ryan's stuff looked crisp to start, as he dotted the edges of the zone while sitting 95-96 MPH with his fastball, even striking out the extremely contact-oriented Alejandro Kirk to end the first.

The Twins took a patient approach against scuffling Jays starter Bowden Francis. Francis was a revelation for the Jays down the stretch in 2024, taking multiple no-hitters into the ninth inning and looking like a building block for a team looking to synchronize the twilight of one core group of stars with the next generation.

Byron Buxton led off with a walk, and Matt Wallner drew one as well later in the inning. Francis was having trouble locating his breaking ball for strikes, and the Twins did a pretty good job of forcing him into the zone with hard stuff, but were ultimately unable to capitalize in a scoreless first.

The Jays looked to go quietly in the second, with second baseman Ernie Clement looking overmatched in the box against Ryan before slapping a two-out single the other way. Rookie Alan Roden then lifted a medium-depth fly ball that Wallner got a so-so break on, diving for a ball that scooted past and allowed Clement to score from first.

The Twins would answer, though not to the extent they would have liked. Willi Castro led off with another walk, followed by singles from Ty France and Brooks Lee. Christian Vazquez got the run home with a ground out, and after another Buxton walk (you read that right) Trevor Larnach just missed his pitch and settled for a sacrifice fly to center. Wallner hit a liner ticketed for the right field corner, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made a leaping catch to end the threat.

The third inning felt like a basketball game where a team shot 65% but gave up so many turnovers and rebounds they lost in a blowout. Bo Bichette drew a tough walk wherein Ryan was visibly frustrated with some of the calls. The home plate umpire even shouted out to Ryan, "You think everything is a strike!" Nevermind, Ryan then induced a grounder from Guerrero to Carlos Correa. What could go wrong? Well Correa's shovel pass to second base was way off the mark, and both runners were safe.

No problem. Ryan retired the hot-hitting Addison Barger on a looper to left field. He then got a ground ball from Kirk, a catcher who can't outrun Willian Astudillo—an inning-ending double play was sure to follow. However, the ball found a hole just by the outstretched glove of Lee, allowing Bichette to tie the game. Feeling snakebit, Ryan decided to challenge George Springer, and that has just never been a good idea/ Springer lashed a double down the left field line. 3-2 Blue Jays.

After throwing over 50 pitches over the first two innings, Francis got into trouble again in the third. Castro flipped a two-out single to left and France drew a walk. But Kirk, with a sterling defensive reputation, caught France napping off of first base to end the inning. France, who is so slow he was recently pinch-run for by Jonah Bride, probably didn't need to be straying that far off the bag as the trail runner. It was a TOOTBLAN.

After an uneventful top of the fourth inning, the Twins decided to strike with the very bottom of their lineup, getting back to back home runs from Lee and Vazquez to retake the lead.

The Twins looked to continue the momentum with Buxton hitting a hot shot down the third base line, but Barger made a great pick with even better "pop time" as his strong throw retired the speedy Buxton.

The Twins would add on in the fifth. With one out, Royce Lewis pinch hit for Clemens against lefty Mason Fluharty, who has flashed pretty good stuff in this series. Lewis worked a hard-fought walk and Castro, who has shown more life against lefties lately, smacked a single. That prompted the Jays to insert righty Erik Swanson, whose elbow is hanging by a thread and just returned from the IL. France greeted him with a double the opposite way, scoring Lewis. Lee then continued his great day at the plate with a walk on 3-2 to load the bases. An out later Buxton drew his third walk of the game to buff the lead to three runs.

Ryan was done after five innings, recovering from his rough third inning to post two scoreless frames, capping off his outing by inducing a double play from Kirk. Ryan threw only 53% of his pitches for strikes but his stuff was good and he spiraled less than he could have.

Brock Stewart, Cole Sands and Jax spun uneventful, scoreless innings, all facing the minimum. Jhoan Duran pitched the ninth with a three-run lead, and while he did allow a baserunner, it didn't get dramatic. Game over.

Stray Observations:

-Lee reminds me a little of Larnach last year, never getting super hot, but also not slumping for extended periods of time. His process has been decent and as a fan you don't feel defeated when he comes to the plate in a clutch spot, despite middling offensive numbers.

-Buxton is up to 17 walks on the year, after drawing a total of 20 walks in 2024. His chase rate is down about five percent in the early going, so it is fair to wonder if, in his age 30 season, Buxton is starting to develop an additional "old player skill."

-Lewis looks playable these days (he went 2-2 with a walk today). He may never be the .900 OPS superstar he was in 2023, but if he can be a .775 OPS guy with a good feel for clutch moments and average defense, I think I would take that if he can play 120 games a year. However, after seeing the resurgence of Giancarlo Stanton in the playoffs, there is precedent for a guy who runs like the tin man turning himself back into an offensive force (and Lewis is ten years younger).

-Castro is now sporting a .353 OBP after reaching four times today. This is the version of Castro that made the All-Star team last year while hitting a lot of leadoff. It is likely tempting to put him back there, but I kind of like the wild card element he brings to the bottom of the lineup.

-The Blue Jays managed just one hit after the third inning, with the bullpen bouncing back after a rough day on Saturday.

What’s Next: The likely starter on Tuesday will be Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 5.02 ERA), going against old friend Tyler Mahle (5-3, 2.02 ERA) as the Twins finish up the home stand against the Texas Rangers. Mahle has been resurgent in his first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2023 while still with the Twins. His fastball velocity has not fully returned, as he has averaged 92 MPH on the heater. However, the run value of both his fastball and changeup both exceed the 90th percentile, so his success has been legitimate so far. Wood Richardson has been decent in Triple A since his demotion, and will need to remain decent to help keep this starting rotation humming following the losses of Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews,

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: