Troubled Youth

Nick, right on the money.  This was so well written I had to look to see who wrote it.

I think the bottom line is, Terry Ryan and his cohorts are TERRIBLE evaluators of talent.....which of course means, as long as he stays, there is no hope for improvement

None of Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Meyer, or Rosario (if I remember correctly) had consistent success at AAA before being called up. I know it's surprising that 4 out of 5 did so badly at the same time, but aren't we setting ourselves up for this possibility by consistently skipping AAA?

Yes, yes, yes. I almost never recommend skipping AAA. I think *moving* a bit quicker up is warranted, but not skipping. I said this about Rosario at the beginning of last year.

for some reason can't get on the field with any regularity. 
 

 I think those words highlight a large part of the problem. The handling of the prospects by the Twins has been more than questionable. Berrios started 4 games. Meyer had 1 start. Even if you think none of them were good starts (personally I think Berrios 2nd and 3rd starts were decent) I don't know how you give top prospects such a short leash before sending them down. Growing pains are part of the process. The Twins have been preaching about the youth movement coming up through the farm system, yet it seems they can't commit fully to what building a young team truly entails. 

Buxton struggled last year and this year. He spent part of the 2nd half last year on the bench with the Twins. They were so sure he was ready this year they traded Hicks. Then 3 weeks into the season they're convinced he can't handle the big leagues and he's back in AAA. Something just doesn't add up. Buxton in AAA right now isn't a bad thing, but the process by which he landed there again is problematic. 

Rosario having a down year shouldn't be a shock but I don't think anybody saw a .200 avg. There wasn't much the Twins could do about that one so they get a pass there. 

Sano will come around. In the last week he's trending upward so hopefully that continues. 

There are so many things to say about this team.   Where to start, I have no idea.    Certainly, as Nick writes, the vaunted up and comers have not delivered at the ML level.   Whether they are just overmatched right now; are/were overrated; or were counted on too heavily--probably a combination therein.

What I found most alarming during the off-season (aside from not tending to the bullpen) was that, even though the FO wanted Hunter back; was willing to pay him handsomely and guarantee him 350-400 at-bats, to be that veteran guy the young core could lean on; and to serve as a safety net to a completely unproven outfield lot, when he retired, the FO elected to make no attempt to replace him.

Let's think about this for a minute.   Since the FO wanted Hunter back, even in a 4th outfielder/spot-starter capacity, the "want" indicated a need for him, for what he or presumably someone "like" him could provide: Experience, personality, and a track record of production.   Someone who would not waste at-bats, someone who understood fundamentals.   Someone who could be a voice in the clubhouse.   And oh, by the way, back up that voice with some clutch hits.   Not talking MVP-caliber here, or even all-star.   But for God's sake, at least someone we could count on not to run into outs on the bases, and to not look totally overmatched.  

Now, an argument could be made that Hunter's abysmal June thru Aug last year may have signaled he was all but done.   And that he knew it, his decent September/swan song notwithstanding.   Fair enough.   But that would not negate the need to, at the least, replace his production--and his standing as a veteran outfielder.

So where was the 4th outfielder signing?   Why didn't we push for, say, Raj Davis, who signed a 1 year deal for 5.25 million - exactly the type of team-friendly pact the Twins try to specialize in; that does not clog up a spot long-term or get in the way of the young guys.   On the contrary, it is to protect the TEAM short-term (from depending too heavily on the youth) and to help the young guys. 

Davis is hitting .256 with 4 homers, 18 RBI, and 10 steals.   Does anyone on this forum think anything other than, had the Twins signed Davis, he would be a fixture in the lead-off spot.   Good grief. 

And no, Raj Davis is not the difference between 10-30 and contending.   But I would like someone to explain the logic of not backing up these young outfielders with a veteran who can produce (the Park signing did not replace Hunter.  Maybe in the abstract--a 6-hitter, 20 HR, 80 RBI--but not in the tangible reality of putting a veteran in the OF to replace the veteran we lost).

Anyway, today's rant.                          

I was hot for them to get Raj, not only for a vet presence, but to tutor those fast young guys in the art of stealing.  What a woeful load of winter time decisions they made.  Pfft.

Yes, yes, yes. I almost never recommend skipping AAA. I think *moving* a bit quicker up is warranted, but not skipping. I said this about Rosario at the beginning of last year.

At one point skipping AAA was a semi-regular occurrence. Most of the top prospects are in AA and AAA is for AAAA players and 37 year old journeymen trying to hang on.

Honestly, whatever ails this team must go way higher than Molitor.  Or even Ryan or the Pohlads.  We are in serious chicken sacrificing territory here.  Maybe even need a turkey, or small ostrich.

A major culprit is that Terry Ryan doesn't treat major league roster spots as the precious commodity they are. He gums up those spots with long contracts for one-year successes, tryouts for has-beens and never-will-bes, and lifetime achievement awards for mediocre starters that passed their undeserved tryouts. All of these make it impossible for high-ceiling prospects to get any run, even on terrible teams.

Alarp, "Absurd" is a great word to describe the leash the young guys have had. While Nolasco and Hughes can be terrible for years.

Whether we have an issue identifying talent, developing talent, or bringing guys up at the right time, or yanking them too early it is an organizational problem that starts and ends with the GM.

It seems to me that they lack a big picture thought process. Eddie Rosario for example, did anyone ever tell him in the minors that his plate discipline would not work in the big leagues? I am not saying completely change him. He was never going to walk 100 times a year. But at least steer him towards some middle ground between being Joe Mauer and hacking at every thing.

This sounds so harsh and my instinct is to defend Terry Ryan from it... but... there is really no other conclusion to be drawn. 

I don't think Ryan and cohorts are terrible at evaluating talent. I think Ryan and company are terrible at developing talent.

We all might have the luxury of folding up tent and playing for next year. Molitor and Ryan may not.  We'll have plenty of season to get young guys extended looks.  But I'd rather see them come up prepared.  I don't think trying not to strike out is a viable approach to an at bat and is more likely to lead to bad habits and tentative swings.  

I am starting to think that there is a specific player development problem in the Twins organization. I need some more time to flesh out this idea fully, so it may be incomplete and/or incorrect, but hear me out:

 

There has been a disturbing pattern on the position player side, and it has to do with discipline and approach. In particular, many of the young guys brought up in the past 3 seasons have had the same general profile: aggressive free-swingers who don't make enough contact, and therefore don't walk enough and strikeout too much. Rosario, Santana, Vargas, Arcia, and Buxton to a varying extents all have this profile. Hicks and Sano aren't free-swingers, but they both have contact issues. I don't know if this approach is specific developed in the minors, or if it is just how these players play. But it has a few major drawbacks:

1) It works in the minors. Pitchers have worse stuff, and much worse control/command, so it is easier to have success with a free-swinging, aggressive approach. Similarly, they can get walks just by being passive.

2) It might work in the majors for a while. Rosario, Santana, Vargas and Arcia have all had stretches of really good hitting. But as big league pitchers adjust to them (or their luck changes), it is hard to maintain success without a solid plate-discipline foundation.

 

So you end up with young hitters that are achieving "success" in the minors, but aren't able to translate their skills into (sustainable) success in the majors. I think there is a disconnect there, and I think it might even point to a fundamental issue with the Twins player development. 

I think this is likely the case. 

Trees - You had a .750 OPS in Single A.  You are promoted to AA.

Forest - You only walked 35 times this year. You swung at 40% of pitches out of the zone, and your 2.5 to 1 k to BB ratio will only grow as you progress.  You need to work on these things now in order to be a productive MLB player.  Your goal for next year is to get your swings at pitches out the zone down to x, your k to BB down to y, and average pitches per at bat up to z. 

The whole predictive analysis is a work in progress with this club.  The program and thought process could be fast tracked with new leadership.