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After Matt Wallner struggled to get going out of the gate this season, he was sent back to Triple-A St. Paul for a reset. That meant a healthy Trevor Larnach was going to get an opportunity, but having previously failed to capitalize on it, expectations were low.
Through his first month in the big leagues during the 2024 season, it appeared as though he was going to stick. The results were immediately positive, and Alex Kirilloff had all but flamed out after a strong April. The even better news is that Larnach’s current career-best 110 OPS+ is probably just scratching the surface.
Larnach's power output has fluctuated throughout the year, but his .242 batting average would be a career-best mark, and crucially, it feels sustainable. There might even be upside from here. Larnach's strikeout rate in MLB entering this season was over 31%. This year, it's 20%. Having notably been attacked with breaking stuff in years past, Larnach is laying off unhittable pitches and prolonging at-bats. Facing the fewest fastballs and most sliders he ever has, he's finally adjusted, and is not racking up whiffs the way he has in the past. While he could afford to add back into his walk rate, when swinging, the former Beaver is looking to do damage.
Larnach’s hard-hit rate has slipped or stayed level, but his average exit velocity is a career-high 91.6 MPH. It was because of his ability to drive the baseball that he found himself in the first round of the 2018 draft, and he has found it at the highest level. Making some slight changes to his setup and swing, he has begun to unlock a new level.
With a modest .271 BABIP, Larnach has been incredibly unlucky. His average exit velocity on outs in play is 90.7 MPH, which is in the 99th percentile for all batter seasons with at least 200 plate appearances over the last four years, and that's with an essentially league-average launch angle profile. His performance has outstripped his actual numbers, and continuing to produce the same batted balls will ultimately turn the tide in his favor.
Rocco Baldelli needs to continue seeing this sort of performance from Larnach. Wallner is back in the big-league mix. Max Kepler is entrenched as the Twins' regular right fielder, and Willi Castro is also capable of cycling in at left field. Larnach has likely distanced himself from Kirilloff, but none of the playing time can be taken for granted.
With eight home runs through 50 games this season, there’s a very straightforward path for him to reach double digits for the first time in his career. Although he is already 27 years old, Larnach could simply be a late bloomer coming into his prime, and seeing a 20- or 30-home run season come to fruition in the next season or two would hardly be a shock.
As the Twins look at roster reconfiguration next year, what Larnach is able to prove this season will go a long way toward determining his future with the franchise. He hits arbitration for the first time this winter, and could be an extension candidate if a bigger breakout is seen on the horizon--or a trade candidate, if he falters again.
The Twins have never gotten more than 79 games in a single season from Larnach. Due to both injury and ineffectiveness, he has routinely shuttled between the big leagues and the farm. With plenty of season left, it looks like he'll blow by that number this year--and he might be establishing himself as a well-rounded hitter, capable of handling breaking balls, offspeed pitches, and the role Kepler might vacate when he hits free agency in November.
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