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Coming off of their best season in three decades, the Minnesota Twins had plenty of momentum to take into the offseason. Having swept the Toronto Blue Jays during the Wild Card round and stolen a road game from the Houston Astros, the core of Rocco Baldelli’s team was set to return for another run. Youth litters the active roster, and injured stars Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton had ample time for healing over the winter.
Rather than ride that wave, the organization let it push them under.
Before the first free agent had even been signed, Sonny Gray had departed for a bigger payday, and the dust had even settled on the postseason excitement the Twins ran to the presses. Payroll was going to decrease, sizably even. There was no reason or benefit to announce this so publicly, and baseball reasons would have facilitated some of it, but the organization wanted the reality to sink in.
With players like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and the bulk of the bullpen making the major league minimum, the payroll could have logically decreased. Last season, the Opening Day roster had ten players making the major league minimum. That same number looks reachable this year but includes a veteran group that could consist of six contracts below $3.5 million.
Uncertainty surrounding Bally Sports and what would happen with a television contract was the reason, but that has now seemingly fallen flat. Not only did Minnesota fail to put together any other alternatives, but the one-year deal is expected to be a more modest hit and keep streamers at bay. With revenues from broadcast rights and revenue sharing pouring in before any gate fees are collected, the 2024 doom and gloom could be largely unfounded.
Of course, the Twins still needed to play it smart in free agency. Paying Gray at this stage of his career could go horribly wrong. Kenta Maeda's production could be replaced, and even Jorge Polanco had redundancy in his roster spot. Alternatively, they needed willing parties to entertain them as well. While Carlos Correa shocked the world twice, those realities aren’t typical for the Twins. Shohei Ohtani wasn’t going anywhere but the Dodgers, and even with Blake Snell or Cody Bellinger twisting in the wind, Minnesota is not their preferred destination.
However, they didn’t need to wait out the bottom of the market either. Josh Staumont may have a nice resurgence with a clean bill of health. Maybe Jay Jackson is a late-bloomer who can be lightning in a bottle. The front office has never spent on relief help, but Carlos Santana didn’t need to be the choice at first base, and the starting rotation is where things hurt the most. Anthony DeSclafani doesn’t represent the most imperative addition the Twins needed to make this offseason, and they kneecapped themselves from the get-go.
Pitching comes with significant costs, and as Minnesota has seen in recent seasons, those additions can be made in deals rather than just dollars. The Twins got great value in trading Polanco, but how far did they shy away from parting with the pieces that would have acquired Tyler Glasnow or Corbin Burnes because of the cost? They could have easily done the two-year deals for Lucas Giolito or Marcus Stroman. Looking at their preferred one-year pacts, playing in the Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, or even James Paxton pools would have been up their alley. All that is true had ownership not self-imposed a cap on the spending.
Major League Baseball is an uncapped sport, and while there will never be a level playing field when it comes to spending, thresholds should be adjusted while windows of opportunity are present. The Pohlad’s committed to increasing payrolls each of the past few seasons, with a franchise record in 2023, and then they reversed course in the ugliest way when the team could have used it most. Spending doesn’t guarantee victories, and we’ll see the Royals reflective of that in 2024. Still, additions enhance an overall chance, and Minnesota is rolling the dice when the only voice that told them to was themselves.
A year from now, the payroll should increase. Correa, Pablo Lopez, and Chris Paddack each see sizable bumps. There will be more handed to pre-arb guys, and those reaching a second year of arbitration will command more. Still, we have even less television uncertainty a year from now and more mouths to feed in that regard across the sport; it seems the time was now and logic went out the window.
Minnesota remains the favorite to win the division, but what could have been is a few pieces short and something that only ownership can shoulder the blame if that would have made a difference.
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