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We all know that spring exhibition statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt. But certain traits, developments and observable trends can provide valid reasons for optimism and belief. Byron Buxton and Kyle Gibson were exhibiting all of them throughout the month of March. The drop-off that both these key pieces experienced as soon as the games started mattering have left the Twins reeling, and searching futilely for answers.
Buxton's spring was an extension of his breakthrough September in 2016. Once again, the young outfielder was flashing visible confidence, regularly connecting with good pitches and putting together solid at-bats. His performance was impressive enough to convince Paul Molitor that Buxton was ready to bat third in the lineup.
But in April, the self-assured hitter who finished last season on a blistering hot streak and piled up a team-leading 10 extra-base hits in the ensuing spring has inexplicably gone amiss. Buxton looks as timid and clueless in the box as he did as a green MLB newcomer, if not more so. With each horrendous plate appearance, the issues only seem to further compound and snowball.
The strategy of letting him try to fight through his struggles is yielding no discernible progress. Although the strikeouts have subsided somewhat, Buxton continues to be an exceedingly easy out, with mediocre or worse pitchers consistently having their way. In his first nine games he went 3-for-34. In eight games since, he's 3-for-31. According to FanGraphs, only one ball put in play this year by Buxton has qualified as a line drive. His 47 percent K-rate is 12 points higher than MLB pitchers have produced at the plate.
You would literally expect better from a random Single-A scrub thrown onto the big-league stage. From a player of such immense talent who posted an .880 OPS in the minors, it boggles the mind. And considering Buxton's monumental importance to the franchise, it's a highly disquieting dilemma.
Gibson isn't as vital to Minnesota's big-picture outlook, but he is quite crucial in the short-term. With all the question marks that surrounded (and continue to surround) Phil Hughes as well as the fifth starter spot, the Twins badly needed the veteran righty to rebound and join Ervin Santana as a reliable asset atop the rotation.
Gibson showed every sign of doing so in camp, with an authoritative presence on the mound carrying more relevance than his stellar numbers. Throughout spring competition, Gibson worked ahead in counts, snapped off nasty sliders and cruised through efficient outings. When batters made contact, they were hitting everything into the ground. He was executing his gameplans to a tee. Utilizing altered mechanics, Gibson reported feeling as good as he has in a long time.
But that version of the 29-year-old has vanished in four regular-season starts. All of the deepest flaws that held him down during a challenging 2016 campaign have been frustrating mainstays. Gibson's command has been terrible and his outings have routinely unraveled at the the first sign of trouble. Things reached a new low on Sunday when Gibson endured the worst start of his career before horrified home fans at Target Field. An eight-run shellacking at the hands of Detroit left him 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, and leaves the Twins contemplating a demotion to the bullpen or even the minors.
Ultimately, removing Buxton or Gibson may prove necessary but won't do much to brighten the team's fortunes.
In the outfield, they lack compelling alternatives for Buxton, and almost any reconfiguration that takes him out of the picture will dramatically reduce the unit's defensive aptitude, diminishing one of the roster's only clear strengths.
In the rotation, the Twins are already seeking to fill another vacancy following the demotion of Adalberto Mejia, and Hughes has done little to establish himself as any kind of stable presence. Minnesota desperately needs Gibson to figure it out, though patience is wearing thin and with good reason.
In both cases, it seems clear that the ability and tools are inherently there to get the job done. What's holding them back? Why are these two critical cogs so profoundly overmatched? Where has the sharpness and confidence they exuded throughout the spring ramp-up period gone?
And if those elements don't return soon, at least to some extent, what in the world are the Twins to do?







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