The Walks Are Real: Dasan Hill's Slow Start in Cedar Rapids

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Andrew West / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For a Twins farm system still searching for a true, no-doubt, top-of-the-rotation pitching prospect, 2026 loomed as a pivotal year for Dasan Hill . The 6-foot-5 left-hander, and Twins Daily’s #6 prospect, has flashed the kind of upside that could eventually vault him into that conversation. As a 19-year-old in Low-A Fort Myers, he posted a 2.77 ERA with 68 strikeouts in 52 IP (albeit with 33 walks) before a late-season promotion to High-A Cedar Rapids. But through his first five starts at Cedar Rapids this year, the early results have been anything but encouraging.

Hill owns an 8.44 ERA across 16 innings, along with a 1.88 WHIP. He’s struck out 24 hitters, which on its own is an excellent sign, but that’s been overshadowed by 13 walks and 17 hits allowed. That combination has created constant traffic on the bases, and it’s made it difficult for him to string together clean, efficient outings. For a pitcher expected to take a step forward this season, it’s been quite the opposite so far. 

The Twins don't currently have a clear-cut, top-100 caliber pitching prospect in their system. Hill has shown flashes of dominance, and his frame and ability to overpower and confuse hitters give him the potential to change that. Instead, he’s spent the first few weeks trying to find his footing. 

The biggest issue thus far, and the one driving most of the struggles, is command.

Hill’s walk rate sits at 17.1%, a number that’s simply too high to sustain success at any level. When nearly one out of every five hitters reaches via walk, everything else becomes exponentially more difficult. Pitch counts climb quickly, innings get extended, and even minor mistakes can turn into big innings. The margin for error becomes extremely small, and for Hill, it’s been almost nonexistent. Even with his ability to miss bats, that kind of inefficiency is hard to overcome.

To his credit, there have been signs of life in that department recently. Over his last couple of starts, the command has looked sharper, and the results have followed. Hill has racked up 14 strikeouts to just three walks over his last eight innings, a stretch that much more closely resembles the dominance we’ve been waiting to see. It’s a small sample within a small sample, but it’s at least a step in the right direction.

It hasn’t been all negative, either. Beneath the surface, there are indicators suggesting he’s been better than his ERA would imply. For one, his BABIP currently sits at a preposterously high .421. That number is hardly sustainable over multiple starts, let alone a full season, and will come down. That’s especially notable when paired with his batted-ball profile.

Hill has done an excellent job generating ground balls, posting a 58% ground ball rate so far this season. That’s a significant jump from the 40.6% mark he posted last year, and typically, that kind of improvement leads to better run prevention. Ground balls are generally less damaging than fly balls, but so far, the results haven’t matched the process.

That disconnect shows up when looking at his FIP, which sits at 4.11. While that’s still not dominant, it’s a far cry from an ERA north of eight. The gap suggests that while Hill hasn’t pitched well overall, his performance hasn’t been nearly as disastrous as the surface numbers indicate. Still, it would be a mistake to chalk this up primarily to bad luck.

The inflated BABIP and improved ground ball rate offer some optimism, but the command issues are real, and they’re doing the bulk of the damage. Too many walks, combined with too many hitters reaching base in general, have consistently put Hill in difficult situations. Even with better luck on balls in play, that’s not a sustainable formula for success.

Of course, it’s important to zoom out. We’re talking about five starts and 16 innings. That’s not nearly enough of a sample to draw firm conclusions about a pitcher’s trajectory, especially at the minor league level. Development is rarely linear, and early-season stat lines can look dramatically different a month or two down the road.

But that doesn’t mean what we’re seeing should be ignored, either.

For a pitcher with Hill’s upside, expectations are naturally higher. This is a season where progress matters, not just in flashes, but in consistency. The recent uptick in strikeouts and improved command is encouraging, but it needs to become the norm rather than the exception.

If that happens, his outlook could change quickly. The swing-and-miss ability is clearly still there, and the jump in his ground ball rate is perhaps the strongest area of improvement from 2025. Clean up the walks, and suddenly you’re looking at a very different stat line, and a very different conversation.

Until then, though, the results are what they are. And for those hoping to see Hill force an early promotion to Double-A, that timeline appears to be on hold.

View full article

[tony&rodney]

Dasan Hill looked decent yesterday. There is quite a climb from blowing away high school hitters to pitching (control & command) at the professional level. Starting in A+ ball, the bats don't bite as much and walks can be a problem. Hill looks good and he should progress quite a bit at Cedar Rapids. He just needs innings to work on his skills.

[GopherTide]

Had high hopes for Hill coming into the season, hoping he can continue to make progress and get his feet under him at high-A to get back to the dominance he was showing last season.

[mikelink45]

disappointing

 

[Wedman13]

good article, thanks!

Clearly the walks need improvement.  I'm guessing not completely abnormal for a 20.5 yr old in high A that was drafted at 165 lbs.  it doesn't mean he will solve it but I got tired of the polished Stephen Golsalves types a while ago (also 6'5 lefty polished at 20 and went 13-3 with a 2.01 ERA in age 20 season - but threw about 87) MPH.  Once he got to the big leagues it didn't work, never to be heard from again.

hoping Dasan can grow into his body and get control because 6'5 lefty's throwing 100 interest me

 

[bunsen82]

He had more control last year and the batters were swinging at more balls that weren't strikes.  Give him a bit to start to get comfortable at the higher level.  Yesterday's start was an improvement.