Projecting The Twins Postseason Roster: The Outfield/DH

Stevenson is the only question I have and I don't have a good alternative.  I see Castro as the true 4th OF.

Wait a minute - how could I forget Larnach.  Add him to OF mix.

Larnach was certainly given the first-out-the-gate chance to win a spot on this list back in April, but I agree that he has lost out to Stevenson (even though Stevenson has yet to show the offensive promise that was seen in St Paul) due to the skills that are mentioned as Stevenson's strengths.  At this point I would have to agree with Larnach's exclusion.

I like Larnach.  He was scorching the ball in St. Paul through most of August and September.  Since The Twins brought him up, he's cooled off a bit.  He also hasn't played that much.  But I think he's a far more dangerous hitter than Stevenson.  I'd start Larnach in the next few games.  If he's hitting, I'd include him on the playoff roster.  If he's not, I'd go with Stevenson.

Depending on what is going on with Buck, Stevenson should get the nod over Larnach.  Stevenson can play CF and can steal bases.  Larnach is basically Wallner, but with less power, and Wallner may be faster too. 

To be honest, I don't care who's playing in the OF during the playoffs as long as his initials are not J.G.

I believe it will all come down to Monday's workout.  If Buxton looks good and CAN play in the OF, then I think they will go with him over Stevenson.  This also includes whether Lewis can play in the field because if he cannot, then he must DH in which case I leave Buxton off the roster.  We cannot burn 2 spots for the DH.  If Buxton cannot play the field, then Stevenson seems to be the guy for defense and base running.  Unfortunately Larnach is somewhat of a clone of Wallner so I'd go with Wallner.

Against a tough right handed starter I wouldn't be surprised to see Castro get the start in Center Field over Taylor.  That has happened semi-frequently the past few months.  Of course, this assumes that Lewis is able to come back healthy and Castro isn't needed at 3B.  I suspect Castro will start at least one wildcard game somewhere, position to be determined.

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Depending on what is going on with Buck, Stevenson should get the nod over Larnach.  Stevenson can play CF and can steal bases.  Larnach is basically Wallner, but with less power, and Wallner may be faster too. 

According to Statcast sprint speed (feet/sec) and Jump (reaction feet vs avg)

Larnach 26.7 / -1.6

Wallner 28.0 / -3.6

Stevenson 29.3 / not listed

Gallo 26.6 / .4

MLB average all positions 27.0.  I was surprised by Gallo's speed or lack there of, but he does have an above average jump.   Larnach is slower than Wallner, but he gets a better jump on the ball (not good but better than Wallner).

I would go with the four named above, as I believe Stevenson's speed may become a factor.  

I like Stevenson as the last man on the bench for his speed. Nice to have that extra SB/PR option on the bench when Castro is in the lineup, or for when Castro comes off the bench. I think he'll be more useful right now than Larnach.

I can't shake the feeling that Buxton is on the team if he he walk to the plate and swing. Maybe he's got a magic moment in his bat off the bench. Unable to play the OF, only able to DH or PH, I'm really struggling with the thought of him and his .207 AVG on the roster. 

I think Luplow has a shot to be part of the 15 as well. While SSS, he's done well against LHP in his time with the Twins. And he can play the field reasonably well. So he might be the 15th man, with Stevenson as the 14th.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Stevenson is a pinch runner - Sac bunt guy……..no roster spot for that in October

You absolutely need a spot like this for October. Late in the games it is vital to have someone like this come in the game as a pinch runner, put pressure on the pitcher, and steal a base - or maybe even a run. Look at someone like Terrance Gore and how vital he was for multiple teams in the postseason. With the Twins lack of speedsters, I think Stevenson is someone that should be a near lock. 

57 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they carry Funderburk & Paddack (non-roster Kuechel) that’s 12 pitchers with Ober being non- rostered as well for WC round. 

12 pitchers leaves 14 bats…..if Buxton dresses, only room for him…..no Stevenson & no Luplow.

Stewart - Paddack create some roster traffic. Maybe they don’t roster Funderburk or Paddack?

I'm betting on 3 starters and 8 relievers with 15 position players. They might not think that way, but it's what makes most sense to me foe the first round.

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Who sits out if you roster Stevenson?

It’s not fantasy baseball - pick somebody and justify that guy being dropped from the roster. You have a probable maximum of 14 position guys…….if they choose Buxton, there is no spot for Stevenson……regardless of his base running prowess. We played 132 games so far this year with him not in the roster.

I see his value - no expanded roster in October.

So what happens in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game and Jeffers or Vasquez leads off the inning and draws a walk? If Castro and MAT are already in the game or have already appeared, we just leave Jeffers there and hope for a ball in the gap? Do you realize how much pressure that takes off a pitcher not having to worry about a runner? And to answer your question 12 pitchers for a best of 3 series is overflow in my opinion and teams can get by with 11, having Stevenson as your 15th hitter. 

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Right now we have 14 position players on the roster……..,Buxton - CC - Lewis all need to be added……who comes off?

In my opinion if the Twins decide to do 11 pitchers and 15 hitters, Larnach and Luplow are gone if those 3 are added.

If they go to 12 and 14, then I think you're right and Stevenson appears to be the odd one out. 

If either of those 3 (Buxton, Correa, Lewis) are unable to play or do not make the roster, then I think Stevenson becomes the next man up no matter what. 

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

3 starters…..Core 4 pen……Stewart - Varland - Maeda - (ONE of Funderburk - Paddack - Kuechel)…….who do they take? Would I rather have Funderburk available in a situation or Stevenson or Luplow?

One of Paddack or Funderburk, IMO. Depends a little on who they face and how deep are their LH bats? Would be nice to have a middle innings LH arm and I just don't trust Keuchel, despite his experience. I'd lean to the kid with velocity and K potential for a half inning, or to finish an inning.

Paddack excites me for next year. I'm happy he's back. I'm glad he's throwing hard and free. But is the control there to make a difference? I hope so.

He or Funderburk. 

If the Twins need more than 8 arms for a 3 game series they aren't going any further. I want the extra speed weapon on the bench instead of a 9th BP arm.

11 pitchers for a three-game series is even probably one too many, but 11 is the way to go.

10 minutes ago, Einheri said:

11 pitchers for a three-game series is even probably one too many, but 11 is the way to go.

I thought so too until I looked at the 8 wild card rosters from last year. Every team had at least 12 pitchers and some 13. They all held back a starter too. These are organizations that have gained respect like the Rays and Guardians. 

I would guess all teams sim the match up thousands of times and weigh the impact of the 15th batter or pinch runner vs. 12 or even 13 pitchers. For some reason no team went with less than 12 pitchers.

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I thought so too until I looked at the 8 wild card rosters from last year. Every team had at least 12 pitchers and some 13. They all held back a starter too. These are organizations that have gained respect like the Rays and Guardians. 

I would guess all teams sim the match up thousands of times and weigh the impact of the 15th batter or pinch runner vs. 12 or even 13 pitchers. For some reason no team went with less than 12 pitchers.

I can't disagree with what other teams did last season, or past years. I think the difference is the speed factor that came in to play this year. I'll argue all day long that a combined 3" shorter difference between the bags hasn't had much of an impact. But the ball is, theorically, more dead than in previous seasons, and I think the limited 2 throws has had a major impact on guys running more. If I'm not mistaken, a pitcher turning and stepping off also counts as an "occurrence". For example, stepping off and looking someone back to 2B counts as one and you only get 2. 

Things might change in the 2nd round, of course, because we're talking a longer series and a 4th starter. But even then, no 5th starter means a 9th pen arm. But that's getting WAY ahead of ourselves. Need to win round 1 first. I want the ability to put pressure on the other team wherever I can. 

It's possible Lewis is restricted to DH. Not  saying he will be, but it's possible. But let's just look at the probable "givens" on the roster: Jeffers, Vazquez, Kirilloff, Solano, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Farmer, Lewis, Wallner, Taylor, Kepler, and Castro. 

That leaves 2 open spots for position players if they go with 3 starters and 8 bullpen arms. In ANY 3 game series, do you/should you need more than 8 pen arms? Stevenson provides speed on the bases and the ability to plug in a defensive OF if PH applies, and/or Castro ends up in the INF. Then it comes down to any sort of "readiness"...or do I dare say the "worthiness" for a hobbled Buxton...as a potential DH or PH who might not be able to do much but MIGHT provide a magic moment due to his talent. So is Luplow the final man if it's determined Buck can't go? He's nothing special at all, but again, in SSS, he's done well against LH arms since he's joined the Twins and is an OK OF. He can even play some 1B if necessary, in case Solano slides somewhere else. And IF Lewis can only DH, that also affects Buxton's spot.

Nothing will be determined until everyone works out Monday. And the final player spot is up for grabs. But I'm rolling with 8 arms in the pen for the 1st round and keeping Stevenson for basepath speed. Imagine Castro in the lineup, and having Vazquez...despite his sprinter imitation in Wednesday's game...on 1st base, or even 2B, and wishing you had another fast runner who might make a difference. 

Team is in the playoffs and has no room for any players to be shaking off rust. That is a no to Buxton and Gallo. They will only be a distraction to the team getting through the 1st round. Let's be honest Buxton hasn't played much all year. And Gallo is and has been a automatic out in almost every at bat. In the playoffs every at bat is important. With Correa and Lewis more than likely coming back,that puts Leplow and Larnach out. 

On 9/28/2023 at 9:44 AM, Parfigliano said:

Gotta agree Stevenson over Larnach.  D-replacement and the need for speed on the bases trump Larnach's skill set in a short series.

Stephenson over Buxtin and Gallo as well. His speed mills in the outfield and on the base path. The guy hit like 320 something in AAA I think so it's not like he doesn't have any offensive skills