Make Or Break Players On The 2025 Twins: Brooks Lee

I have to think if his back is feeling good he will be fine. Great write up!

16 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not quite 100% make or break, but I do believe this is a pivotal year for Lee.  Playing a position of need for the Twins, if he fails there is a lot of pressure coming up behind him.

Agreed.  I remembered his offensive game going poorly, but those really were brutal numbers.  I wonder if he would be better off making adjustments in St. Paul, where the pitching is less scary and the pressure is less.  It’s easier to do that when you’re not facing guys like Tarik Skubal.  

I'd like to see Lee start the season at St Paul regardless of his hitting in camp this spring.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure the 40-man roster has enough plausible candidates to staff the infield without him!  If someone steps up, Lee goes down if I'm in charge.

1 hour ago, HelmetTip said:

Given his pedigree & minor league stats, calling his sophomore season "make or break" after 185 ML at-bats is ridiculous. 

The article didn't lean hard into the click-bait title, thankfully, 

Brooks Lee was very rough at the MLB level. He showed the limits of his athleticism matched criticism in scouting reports. If he puts up another 200+ plate appearances which look like last year, his MLB career will be limited to utility/spotty playing time and the clock will start on his opportunities going forward.

Brooks Lee looks like an old-timey baseball player and I like it. Anyway, his back may have impacted his game last year, but honestly, it seemed like he was more limited by his swing speed and ability to catch up to MLB fastballs.

The biggest thing which may be holding Lee back is his conditioning. He could benefit greatly by adding some speed and strength to get that swing speed up. Have to wait and see on him. Adding some physical ability is much easier than adding the ability to recognize pitches and the skills needed for smooth fielding.

3 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

"Make-or-break" for a guy who was universally acknowledged to be one of the game's most-MLB-ready prospects one year ago after an injury-plagued 2024?  Give me a break....

Austin Martin was acknowledged as one of MLB's most ready prospects a few years ago, and Martin is quite a bit more athletic than Lee.

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Well, let’s face it, if Lee does “make” it, he’ll be the first “sure fire” Twins prospect to do so in years.  So the odds are stacked against him as long as he is part of this organization. 

Let's put this to the test, going back to 2019 let's look at our top prospects:

Royce Lewis - Hit

Alex Kirilloff - Miss

Brusdar Graterol - Mixed bag as he has been an above average reliever

Trevor Larnach - Mixed bag so far

Austin Martin - Poor debut

Brooks Lee - Rough debut

Eduard Julien - Great rookie year, terrible sophomore year

Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez - TBD

Looks like a mix of good and bad to me.

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Martin's days as a top prospect were over when he was still in Toronto. These aren't the same caliber of potential and never have been.

In hindsight perhaps, but few here had that opinion. He was Twins Daily's #1 prospect in 2022...

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Martin's days as a top prospect were over when he was still in Toronto. These aren't the same caliber of potential and never have been.

I've never been as high on Lee most of the rest of the board has been, largely because he doesn't look like he'll have enough power to justify his prospect rankings, but he has exponentially more power than the offensively one dimensional Martin.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I remember, and it was frustrating. He'd already dropped 30 spots or so in the national prospect rankings and TD still had him #1 some how. I think most people here still had shiny new toy syndrome. He was always and only ever going to be a slap hitter, and that was clear even before the Twins traded for him.

Austin Martin
MLB #22 prospect 2021 (with Twins)
MLB #52 prospect 2022

In my opinion, you're both overvaluing Lee, and undervaluing Martin, historically in terms of how they were viewed from a scouting profile. Yes, Martin dropped a whopping 30 spots to #52 in all of MLB. 

a22 AA Lee 399 PA .292/.365/.476 OPS .841, ISO .183, wRC+ 120 
a22 AA Martin 418 PA .270/.414/.382 OPS .796, ISO .112, wRC+ 128

Both were considered to have elite hit tools, but Martin was also considered a potential plus runner. Lee was graded a little higher in power, and a much more sure fielder. At the EoY 2021, Fangraphs, MLB, Prospects1500 all had Martin #1. By the end of 2022, people had cooled on him, and 2023 was just as bad for Martin. Martin's exit velocities suggested he had some 45/50 grade power potential (probably where Lee really is), but his flat swing produces too many ground balls. Many people feel like the Twins were unfairly trying to turn Martin into a slugger in 2021, but it seems more like the Twins were just trying to get that 45/50 grade power to play into doubles and occasional home runs at this point. For Martin to hit more like Miranda in terms of power.

Lee was pretty miserable in 168 PA in AAA during 2023, but in 114 PA he was great in 2024, but Lee's .298 ISO driven by 8 HR in that tiny stretch suggested severe regression was on its way unless you believe he's a 30-40 HR slugger.

The book isn't closed on Lee, but there are plenty of rippling red flags at the beach at this point. Stuff which would be better off noted rather than risking being swept out to sea.

I'm not as high on Lee as others here. I would love to see him have the defensive chops to play 2B at a high level because I think that's where his bat profiles. From here, he looks like a .265/.335/.420 type guy with a below 20% SO rate IF things go well. Nothing wrong with that; that's a solid to above average regular at 2B and maybe even at 3B. His bat is certainly good enough for 2B but probably not good enough to play 3B because of the lack of power unless the team gets power from an unusual position like 2B or SS. You also have to add in the complete lack of any speed (man runs like a catcher) and the fact that he may have a chronic back issue to manage. I think his highest and best use is as a great glove, solid to good  bat 2B that hits in the 6 or 7 hole although I can see the temptation to make him the 3B and Lewis the 2B given their throwing arms (Lee good, Lewis erratic).  

Frankly this is kind of similar to the scouting report when Lee came out. Advanced bat, close to MLB ready, good chance to be a solid MLB regular, limited ceiling. And I'm just fine with that. Let's just not assume he will be more than a complimentary player on a good team if things work out. His "make" level is not as high as some others if we are realistic about what he brings to the table. 

I’m not concerned about his ability to adjust to the majors and expect him to break camp as a fixture.  

You know how we say prospect development is not linear? He kinda has been so far.  He has struggled immediately after every promotion but every month got better and better with the last month of 1.000 OPS prior to being promoted.  His month to month progression is pretty funny to look at.  Like chutes and ladders.  It’s easy to forget he crushed AAA before he got called up.  It’s even easier to forget he OPS .656 his first month in AAA after 1.000+ in AA the month before.

He’s been in a whirlwind for 2+ years but he was born to play baseball at a very high level.  I am bobo. 

I have to believe that injuries played a big factor last year in his disappointing results. With his background and an offseason to get healthy I’d expect a ~750 OPS with above average defense this year. That’s the “high floor” we all expected out of him and a good outcome. And he still has a chance for more.