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    Is it Time for Twins to Move Louie Varland to the Bullpen?


    Cody Pirkl

    The Twins have some concerns in the starting rotation, but it’s nowhere near as dire as the situation they’ve found themselves in with the bullpen. Is it time to roll the dice and move their young swingman back into a relief role?

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    The Twins rightfully gave Louie Varland another chance to start this year, after an uneven season in 2023. Though he’s struggled mightily at times, Varland has been pitching much better lately, and is currently in St. Paul as their next man up, should another starter struggle or get injured. Unfortunately, the current rotation issues are hypothetical, whereas the current bullpen concerns are very real. It may be time for the Twins to sacrifice their rotation depth to keep the bullpen afloat, despite the obvious risks of that approach.

    It’s no secret that the Twins bullpen is coming apart at the seams. Just this week, they’ve turned two almost-certain wins into losses. First, Jorge Alcalá entered a 4-0 game against Texas on Sunday in the 7th inning and blew the lead in impressively little time.

    Then, Steven Okert entered a 5-3 game Tuesday against San Diego in the 8th inning and allowed four earned runs while recording one out. These losses--and the specter of more similar ones--give the Twins every reason to throw caution to the wind regarding future rotation depth and give Varland a chance to save the bullpen.

    The top issue with the Twins bullpen right now is obvious: They don’t have enough trustworthy options. The Twins chose to add to the pen only on the fringes this offseason, as they often do. It left them vulnerable to the situation they’ve currently found themselves in.

    High-end options with injury risks (like Brock Stewart) have had the worst-case scenario play out. Jhoan Durán has also taken a step back, after being the backbone of the bullpen for the last few seasons. Justin Topa, acquired for Jorge Polanco, likely will not throw a single pitch for the Twins this year. Caleb Thielbar has finally looked his age for much of the season, while several of the Twins' offseason acquisitions, such as Okert and Jay Jackson, turned out to do more harm to this roster than good. Rocco Baldelli manages in a minefield every night when he calls down to the bullpen. Varland would be an immediate facelift for this group.

    It’s also worth pondering the worst-case scenario should the Twins shift Varland into the bullpen and another injury occur in the starting rotation. Taking Varland out of the mix for the rotation would likely leave Randy Dobnak and Caleb Boushley as the next in line, should the need arise. While those are unexciting options, so is the starter version of Varland’. Having seen his struggles, the Twins will surely handle Varland in the rotation like they’d handle Dobnak or Boushley. It’s unlikely to see any of these names facing a lineup more than twice through.

    If any of these names are in a rotation spot, is the difference all that significant, when they’ll be handled so carefully and Varland has shown so little upside as a starter? The Twins wouldn’t ask for much more than filling a handful of innings out of that rotation spot. Rather than put Varland in such a low-wattage role, why not use him in a way that can make a much more significant impact on their chances of winning?

    The Twins were stingy in the offseason and, despite several green and yellow flags turning bright red, doubled down on their lack of impact additions at the trade deadline. The same patience that paid off for them so handsomely at the 2023 trade deadline has them headed for disaster in 2024.

    They’re wary to pull the last lever they have at their disposal, and they should be. Their pitching depth is dangerously low, but more so on the bullpen side. Rather than saving Varland for a “what if” scenario in the rotation, they need to recognize the situation that’s actively playing out now. The Twins need to stop the bleeding in the bullpen, and Louie Varland is the best (and maybe only) way to do it. Will we see them make the move soon?

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    I, for one, think that Louie's future is as a reliever, but I can understand the reluctance to give up on him as a starter this young.  That being said, he did provide a boost to the pen last fall, and if they are leaning toward this move, now would be the time to test it out and not wait for the post season.  I am bold enough to say that, with the schedules that Cleveland and KC have the remainder of the season, the division is ours, so start to make plans for October now.  And if we need a boost in the pen, Louie is as good a move as we have right now, so give him some innings with the club now and see if what we saw last year is there.  

    1 hour ago, Mark G said:

    I, for one, think that Louie's future is as a reliever, but I can understand the reluctance to give up on him as a starter this young.  That being said, he did provide a boost to the pen last fall, and if they are leaning toward this move, now would be the time to test it out and not wait for the post season.  I am bold enough to say that, with the schedules that Cleveland and KC have the remainder of the season, the division is ours, so start to make plans for October now.  And if we need a boost in the pen, Louie is as good a move as we have right now, so give him some innings with the club now and see if what we saw last year is there.  

    Amen, It's time to find out his best role.

    Varland has had problems fitting in the rotation. Varland is Varland. He has the stuff to get you through the order 2Xs easily. He needs to work on his change-up to get you beyond that. Who Varland is, is still very valuable to the Twins. Someone that the Twins should have been utilized from the beginning in a long relief/ spot start. If Varland was used earlier to take the pressure off the rotation & BP. IMO we have many more quality innings from both & Ryan would be still with us. His change-up still needs work so depending on him to fit into the rotation is foolish so stop wasting Varland down in AAA, take advantage of who he is.

    Depending on the team & how efficient he is, he could give you 5 innings maybe more when used with an opener as a spot starter. Long relief can save you a lot of BP arms to be used when absolutely needed. Until the Twins embrace the long relief/ spot starter role we'll continue to fight nonquality innings, injuries & worn-out arms for the postseason.

    That's not saying Varland can't work on his secondary pitches while in this role & during the offseason to become a legitimate SP. My problem is I hate to see Varland down in AAA wasting his bullets when he is so needed up in MLB. While watching Richards, & Okert pitching up in MLB & Alcala pitching in multiple innings & consecutive outings.

    It was time several months ago... was one of the poor decisions we have made this year regarding roster management. How many games would he have helped us win being the bridge guy? 3-5 at least I would think.. 

    Louie must like the bus rides in the minors  , he is stubborn and wants to be a starter  ....

    His best season so far has been 2023 bullpen  , so if he wants to stick in the majors and have the good life  , it appears to be in the bullpen  ... 

    Duffy was a converted starter and had some good years as a reliever  , it's time for Louie to focus on what will keep him in the majors  ...

    Varland can provide the best value as a high octane reliever who can go multiple innings. That would be very valuable to our bullpen right now. We have Bouschly and Morris as starter insurance. Let him let it fly in the pen.

    Yes. Then off to driveline to see if he can get a worthwhile offspeed pitch. But right now his offspeed only works in contrast to 98+ on the fastball which Louie can only maintain for 2 innings max.

    As a reliever he can be dangerous right now.  

    19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Varland has had problems fitting in the rotation. Varland is Varland. He has the stuff to get you through the order 2Xs easily. He needs to work on his change-up to get you beyond that. Who Varland is, is still very valuable to the Twins. Someone that the Twins should have been utilized from the beginning in a long relief/ spot start. If Varland was used earlier to take the pressure off the rotation & BP. IMO we have many more quality innings from both & Ryan would be still with us. His change-up still needs work so depending on him to fit into the rotation is foolish so stop wasting Varland down in AAA, take advantage of who he is.

    Depending on the team & how efficient he is, he could give you 5 innings maybe more when used with an opener as a spot starter. Long relief can save you a lot of BP arms to be used when absolutely needed. Until the Twins embrace the long relief/ spot starter role we'll continue to fight nonquality innings, injuries & worn-out arms for the postseason.

    That's not saying Varland can't work on his secondary pitches while in this role & during the offseason to become a legitimate SP. My problem is I hate to see Varland down in AAA wasting his bullets when he is so needed up in MLB. While watching Richards, & Okert pitching up in MLB & Alcala pitching in multiple innings & consecutive outings.

    His 2nd time through an order OPS for his career is .837. 3rd time is 1.173. First time through is .678. 
    This year it's .667 the first time then jumps to .933 and then 1.308 the 2nd and third times.

    He can't get through the order more than once. Never has been able to consistently at the MLB level. I fully expect him to be moved to the pen at some point in September, and open the 2025 season there. It's where he's best used. Only thing holding them back now is that they have 3 rookies in their rotation and likely very little hope that either Paddack or Ryan are coming back to the rotation. Morris in AAA is the only other rotation option they have, and he's only made 2 starts in AAA. They need Varland at the top of his starter game for a while still. Even if the pen is the best spot for him. But he's only good for 2 to 3 innings. Once through the lineup. No more than that if you're trying to maximize Louie.

    20 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Louie must like the bus rides in the minors  , he is stubborn and wants to be a starter  ....

    His best season so far has been 2023 bullpen  , so if he wants to stick in the majors and have the good life  , it appears to be in the bullpen  ... 

    Duffy was a converted starter and had some good years as a reliever  , it's time for Louie to focus on what will keep him in the majors  ...

    Louie said before the season he wants to be a starter but prefers to be in the majors and would move to the pen if that's what got him on the Twins roster. The Twins are the ones keeping him on the bus in AAA. And for pretty good reason.

    The Twins have 3 rookies in their rotation right now. Only other rotation options the rest of the season are Varland, Dobnak, and Morris. Odds are they need at least a couple starts from guys not currently in the rotation. You want that to be a 2nd rookie who's jumped 4 levels (Morris started in A+ like Zebby this year, and is only 22), Randy Dobnak, or Louie Varland? My vote is pretty easily Varland.

    Louie will go to the pen at some point this year. But they need him as their 6th starter still.

    Of the things on the Twins’ to do list, this is among the least urgent unless you think that the bullpen will implode enough to cost the team a shot at the playoffs.  I don’t happen to think that and I don’t think the Twins do either.  If we’re lucky, and the rotation keeps rolling along, we will be able to do that, just not yet.

    Varland can be converted into a reliever very quickly at the end of the season, IF he is no longer needed to be the backup to the starting rotation.   Once he has been converted to a relief role, moving him back takes more time than the team would have available if a starter goes down (or is completely ineffective.) Right now, much more harm can come to the team and its record without an adequate fill-in on the rotation than without another arm in the bullpen.  

     

    5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Past time. Quit worrying and try to win. 

    On July 14 the Twins rotation was Lopez-Ober-Ryan-Paddack-SWR. On August 7 it was Lopez-Ober-Ryan-SWR-Festa. On August 8th it was Lopez-Ober-SWR-Festa-Matthews. They lost 40% of their rotation in less than a month. I know you have the ultimate belief in young guys filling in, but are you really ready for a potential September rotation of 4 rookies while they try to win the division, or even hang onto a wild card spot? 2 of those rookies being guys who started the year in A+ ball? Teams have to keep the future in mind to some extent.

    14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    On July 14 the Twins rotation was Lopez-Ober-Ryan-Paddack-SWR. On August 7 it was Lopez-Ober-Ryan-SWR-Festa. On August 8th it was Lopez-Ober-SWR-Festa-Matthews. They lost 40% of their rotation in less than a month. I know you have the ultimate belief in young guys filling in, but are you really ready for a potential September rotation of 4 rookies while they try to win the division, or even hang onto a wild card spot? 2 of those rookies being guys who started the year in A+ ball? Teams have to keep the future in mind to some extent.

    It is the best option, like it or not. It's not like varland is a seasoned veteran. If he's in the pen, and they need a starter for more than one start, they can rest him until the second start. 

    There isn't much future left this year. I'd time to try to win. And the back of the bullpen is awful. 

    A month ago I thought it was time to start giving Varland some innings in the pen for St. Paul.  Then Ryan goes down and I thought, wooo nellly, let's hold off on that.

    But the end of the year is getting close and the Twins can't afford too many more late inning blow-ups.  So yes, get Varland into the pen this weekend so he is on the Twins roster come August 31 (that's important, isn't it?).  He can be used as a multi-inning reliever every third or fourth day.  Saves innings for the three guys that are important.  Also means he is pitching enough that he could make a spot start the last month and go four or five innings. 

    Kind of the best of both worlds.  The important thing is that the Twins pen needs him, now.  That's assuming he pitches like last year and not this year.

     

    There's not much reason to believe that Festa and Matthews will be any worse than they have been the rest of the year. The only teams they still have to face with above average offensive outcomes this year are Boston, Baltimore and KC. And KC really only has an above average offense when Bobby Witt Jr is up.

    6 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

    There's not much reason to believe that Festa and Matthews will be any worse than they have been the rest of the year. The only teams they still have to face with above average offensive outcomes this year are Boston, Baltimore and KC. And KC really only has an above average offense when Bobby Witt Jr is up.

    I like Festa a lot and I see some good things from Matthews. 

    However... There's not much reason to believe that the rotation of Ober, Lopez, SWR, Festa and Zebby will remain healthy and intact for the rest of the season and into the playoffs and alternatives beyond Paddack and Ryan returning need to be considered.  

    On the other hand... I'm not one of those who believe that just because Varland jumps into the pen that he can't jump back into the rotation with little fuss should the need arise.

    Necessity is always the mother of invention. 

     

    The question is to if Va

    2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

    I like Festa a lot and I see some good things from Matthews. 

    However... There's not much reason to believe that the rotation of Ober, Lopez, SWR, Festa and Zebby will remain healthy and intact for the rest of the season and into the playoffs and alternatives beyond Paddack and Ryan returning need to be considered.  

    On the other hand... I'm not one of those who believe that just because Varland jumps into the pen that he can't jump back into the rotation with little fuss should the need arise.

    Necessity is always the mother of invention. 

     

    So far, Varland has been a bad starter. He lacks the tools to get batters out 2, let alone 3 times in the same game. He probably can still develop these tools. It will take a few months of intense practice that he doesn't currently have. 

    They need another good reliever. Louie has the tools to be that guy. Hopefully that will be what they do. 

    24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    It is the best option, like it or not. It's not like varland is a seasoned veteran. If he's in the pen, and they need a starter for more than one start, they can rest him until the second start. 

    There isn't much future left this year. I'd time to try to win. And the back of the bullpen is awful. 

    They're 4.5 games back of the best record in Major League Baseball, but you believe they aren't trying to win? I don't get that. They're 12-8 (.600 winning percentage) in August. That's the best of any month outside of their 2-1 March. The numbers I've seen thrown around on here is that they're either 54-4 or 53-3 when leading after 7. They have 15 blown saves all year. Good for 5th best in all of baseball, 1 away from being tied for 2nd. Tied with Cleveland and their dominant bullpen. They're 19-15 (.559 win percentage) in 1 run games. I don't see a bullpen that's costing them a ton of games or a team not "trying to win."

    I know it's been a rough week of pen blowups, but let's not act like this pen has been losing them games right and left. Louie will go to the pen in September like he did last year. If they wait until the Reds series September 13 to make the move were they not trying to win the games over the next couple weeks? He'd throw in like 4 games in that time in the pen. Is that really them not trying to win?

    If they move him to the pen now it's not the end of the world. But the idea that not moving him is them not trying to win is pretty wild to me. It's like all the people saying Rocco is losing them handfuls of games. How good do people think this team is? World Series favorites if Rocco is so bad and/or they aren't trying to win and are still 4.5 games out of being the best team in baseball even while they deal with injuries to their biggest stars all year long. 

    Just now, chpettit19 said:

    They're 4.5 games back of the best record in Major League Baseball, but you believe they aren't trying to win? I don't get that. They're 12-8 (.600 winning percentage) in August. That's the best of any month outside of their 2-1 March. The numbers I've seen thrown around on here is that they're either 54-4 or 53-3 when leading after 7. They have 15 blown saves all year. Good for 5th best in all of baseball, 1 away from being tied for 2nd. Tied with Cleveland and their dominant bullpen. They're 19-15 (.559 win percentage) in 1 run games. I don't see a bullpen that's costing them a ton of games or a team not "trying to win."

    I know it's been a rough week of pen blowups, but let's not act like this pen has been losing them games right and left. Louie will go to the pen in September like he did last year. If they wait until the Reds series September 13 to make the move were they not trying to win the games over the next couple weeks? He'd throw in like 4 games in that time in the pen. Is that really them not trying to win?

    If they move him to the pen now it's not the end of the world. But the idea that not moving him is them not trying to win is pretty wild to me. It's like all the people saying Rocco is losing them handfuls of games. How good do people think this team is? World Series favorites if Rocco is so bad and they aren't trying to win and are still 4.5 games out of being the best team in baseball even while they deal with injuries to their biggest stars all year long. 

    I never said they weren't trying to win. That's a clear exaggeration of my statement. And you know it.

    Every year we are told they aren't good enough to make deals at the deadline. And every year but one they've lost in the playoffs without winning one series. 

    Other teams keep making deals, and their GMs still have jobs, so other teams must think it makes sense to get better, or at least try to, at the deadline. It's clear this team doesn't. And it h hasn't worked at all to stand still. 

    As has been clear since April, Varland hasn't figured out how to handle the second time through the order.  Louie needs to figure out his pitch mix to become a reliable starter.  Coincidentally, the Twins have needed a multiple innings eater since April.  The obvious solution even to a numbskull like me:  let Varland take the middle-innings role once through the order.  Seems like a win-win-win proposition.

    BTW, Jax has made huge strides the past two years by fine-tuning his pitches and his pitch mix to the point where moving him to a starting role next season merits some thought.  Jax's development path appears to be Varland's, no?

    Just now, Mike Sixel said:

    I never said they weren't trying to win. That's a clear exaggeration of my statement. And you know it.

    Every year we are told they aren't good enough to make deals at the deadline. And every year but one they've lost in the playoffs without winning one series. 

    Other teams keep making deals, and their GMs still have jobs, so other teams must think it makes sense to get better, or at least try to, at the deadline. It's clear this team doesn't. And it h hasn't worked at all to stand still. 

    I'm not happy with them standing pat at the deadline either, but this conversation isn't about the deadline, it's about Louie Varland moving to the pen. You disagree with their chosen strategies to try to win (and so do I, as you know), but you chose to state it as them needing to try to win now. If they need to try to win now the logical conclusion is they haven't been trying to do that before. But, as the numbers I presented show, their strategies haven't been all that catastrophic. 

    And not trading for better players at the deadline is a very different thing that putting their #6 starter in the pen when they've already lost 40% of their rotation in the last month. It's not the end of the world if they put him in the pen now and have to try to stretch him back out later if needed. But it's also not outrageous that they're holding on a little longer before they do. Injury isn't their only concern. I know we're all excited about SWR, Zebby, and Festa, but there's a very real chance one of 2 of them hit a wall soon, or get figured out, and fall apart.

    And as the numbers I provided before show, they aren't falling apart. In terms of blowing leads they've been as good as just about anyone in baseball. The pen hasn't crushed them by any means. I know it's been a tough week, but let's not pretend they've just been blowing leads left and right and Louie would've somehow saved them. They've been quite good at holding leads. Like, really, really good, actually.

    Just now, Mike Sixel said:

    No idea why I need to type this again, but life is a dial not switch. There are degrees of trying to win.

    And their dial has them within 4.5 games of the best record in baseball while missing Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Wallner, Julien, etc. for significant amounts of time. How much better do you honestly think they could be if their dial were turned up to the place you think it should be?

    The point with Louie in '24 specifically is he's not going to magically turn into a good starter, since it's not about the usage of pitches. It's about the contrast. His offspeed right now doesn't have the deception it needs to get guys out a second time. So when he can fling his fastball at near triple digits, it still plays, since he can have it break out of the zone pretty quickly. Batters have to commit to the 100, and by then it's too late. When it's only 94, they can wait to recognize. 
    His job at Driveline or wherever is to improve his tunneling. That probably won't work in '24 though. so the best way to use LV the rest of the year is in the Pen for 2 innings at a time every other day
     

    1 minute ago, August J Gloop said:

    The question is to if Va

    So far, Varland has been a bad starter. He lacks the tools to get batters out 2, let alone 3 times in the same game. He probably can still develop these tools. It will take a few months of intense practice that he doesn't currently have. 

    They need another good reliever. Louie has the tools to be that guy. Hopefully that will be what they do. 

    You might be right. Or maybe not. 

    There has certainly been an inconsistency with Varland in the rotation. 

    But I have to ask. 

    If Richards can be refined. Couldn't Varland?

    In my humble opinion... Varland has the better stuff and it isn't that close in my opinion. 

    With me... It's can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang. I'm still hopeful that Varland can hang a zero more than an inning at a time and I'm willing to bet that we will need him to start for us before the year is up. 

    However... I think at this point in the season. He can move between pen and rotation rather seemlessly. 




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