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    Dodgers 4, Twins 3: Checking Out

    The Twins had a chance, with a getaway day rubber-match win over a struggling Dodgers team, to give themselves one last gasp of air ahead of the MLB trade deadline. And they almost seized it.

    Sherry Cerny

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack - 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (78 pitches, 56 strikes (71%))
    Home Runs:  Royce Lewis (5)
    Bottom 3 WPA:
    Griffin Jax -.803; Willi Castro -.178; Louis Varland -.106
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
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    Chris Paddack had struggled over his last six starts, with high pitch counts and a failure to string together zeroes, but today he had a chance to help the team end a bad road trip on a good note. A PitchCom issue started Paddack’s day with a violation, but he got out Mookie Betts. Paddack served up a hittable 0-2 pitch to Shohei Ohtani, though, and Ohtani swatted a solo home run, giving the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. 

    The Twins answered fairly quickly, with a homer from Royce Lewis tying the score—his third long ball in four short games. Lewis has been fighting back from injury and a very visible slump, but in the month of July, he has a batting average of .273 and has been making more contact as the month goes on.

    Paddack had a much better showdown against the Dodgers as the innings went on, even striking out Ohtani in his second and third at-bats. With the trade deadline looming, many fans want to see Paddack traded. The only problem with that is the continued pain of injuries that continue to plague the rotation. (To wit: David Festa landed on the injured list earlier Wednesday.) After his frustrating appearance after the All-Star break, this game was what the fans and the Sheriff needed, with his velocity trending up and a little more control from the release. 

    Through six, Paddack only threw 78 pitches, with no walks and eight strikeouts. He managed the game much better after that first inning. Paddack gave the offense the much-needed chance to get ahead on the board. 

    Tyler Glasnow was able to manage the game just as well from his side, though. Even though the Twins were able to run up the pitch count to 79 by the beginning of inning six, Glasnow kept everyone chasing. Lewis was the only one who seemed able to figure him out; a big strike zone did not help matters.

    Unfortunately, after Lewis's double, Byron Buxton struck out to extinguish the rally. Buxton has been chasing the ball a little more the past two games down and away, after taking Ohtani yard on Monday, definitely an adjustment from his first few games back.

    Danny Columbe came out to replace Paddack and struggled, starting with a double to Freddie Freeman and walking two with no outs, giving the Dodgers a golden opportunity to put more runs on the board. Twins pitching coach Pete Maki came out to give Coulombe a breather with Will Smith coming to the plate. Smith was out on a flyball to Buxton, but after just 16 pitches and one out, Rocco Baldelli pulled Coulumbe and replaced him with Louis Varland, who has been on the mound three days in a row. While many don’t like Paddack, there was an argument for him coming out to start the seventh inning. Alas.

    The Dodgers took the lead 2-1, on a Tommy Edman single, scoring Freddie Freeman, and still only had one out. But the Twins stopped the bleeding there. Only one run scored, leaving the Twins able to (hopefully) answer again. 

    The eighth inning started a fun Twins rally. Pitcher Kirby Yates walked Lewis, who was replaced by DeShawn Keirsey Jr. The pinch-runner promptly stole second, and walks of Brooks Lee and Buxton loaded the bases. Willi Castro hit a chopper ending in a double play from Betts, to Miguel Rojas to Freeman, but it scored Keirsey, tying the game 2-2. 

    Harrison Bader came in to replace Trevor Larnach and put the ball in play on the third pitch, bouncing over the head of the pitcher, to Rojas again—who missed the play, allowing Bader to reach and Lee to score and giving the Twins a 3-2 advantage.

    Brock Stewart relieved Varland, but the bottom of the eighth inning seemed to drag. With two on two out, Smith was intentionally walked to load the bases. It worked perfectly. Rojas hit a pop-out to first. Crisis averted.

    Ugh. Make that crisis delayed. Griffin Jax struggled in the bottom of the ninth inning. Jax got the first out, easy peasy, and it looked like it was going to be a good inning. But a missed check-swing strike call, an infield single from Betts, and two walks loaded the bases with two outs. Freeman hit a sinking liner to left field, and despite Bader's best efforts, the ball found grass. That gave the Dodgers a walk-off win and the series win against the Twins. 

    It sucked.

    What’s Next? 
    The Twins get a day off on Thursday, as they fly home to play the Nationals and the Red Sox. The Nationals continue to struggle, and the Red Sox are doing their best to continue the streak they are on in the month of July.  Zebby Matthews (1-2; 6.26 ERA) will be taking the mound against MacKenzie Gore (4-9; 3.59 ERA) at 7:10 PM CT. 

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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    Featured Comments

    8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    Sell.

    Sell and get what we need , if we trade one of Jax or Duran  , we better be trading for high quality players that can fill a ML position of need right away  ...

    The free agents to be trades will probably amount to fringe players to audition  ...

    59 minutes ago, h2oface said:

    ALL missed calls are horrid. Even if they benefit the favored team. It changes every game. ALL MISSED 

     

    The sad thing is…
    A 90-year-old grandma in a wheelchair could sit on her couch at home and still call a better game than the average MLB umpire behind the plate.

    And that’s the truth.

    Until MLB finally implements automatic balls and strikes—and gives an umps in the booth the authority to quickly reverse bad calls, this junk will never end. Never.

    Fans are tired of hearing about the "human element" when it’s really just a fancy way of defending poor judgment. We’ve got the technology. We’ve got the angles. There’s zero excuse for letting blown calls dictate games in 2025.

    Fix it then MLB. Your umps suck! 
     

    1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

    As a Rocco non-fan, I agreed 1,000% with the move to walk Ohtani to face Esteury Ruiz, the man on his 4th team in as many years, with 16 at bats this season and a career OPS of .642. Two outs and two bases open, you make that move 1,000 times out of 1,000. Not even a debate in my mind.

    It’s not like Jax is one of the lower end relievers. He’s always mentioned in the same breath as Duran, and many have wanted him as closer at various times. Throw some damn strikes to a guy only batting because he pinch ran. 

    I wouldn't ever intentionally walk the winning run on base,  but I certainly can understand your position in this case.

    And it's one i wouldn't blame Rocco for doing either.

     

    19 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Sell and get what we need , if we trade one of Jax or Duran  , we better be trading for high quality players that can fill a ML position of need right away  ...

    The free agents to be trades will probably amount to fringe players to audition  ...

    They literally got Ryan for a rental. 

    18 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

     

    The sad thing is…
    A 90-year-old grandma in a wheelchair could sit on her couch at home and still call a better game than the average MLB umpire behind the plate.

    And that’s the truth.

    Until MLB finally implements automatic balls and strikes—and gives an umps in the booth the authority to quickly reverse bad calls, this junk will never end. Never.

    Fans are tired of hearing about the "human element" when it’s really just a fancy way of defending poor judgment. We’ve got the technology. We’ve got the angles. There’s zero excuse for letting blown calls dictate games in 2025.

    Fix it then MLB. Your umps suck! 
     

    MLB umpires are easily the best of any of the major pro sports. Easily. 

    They miss almost no calls on the bases. 

    Umpiring balls and strikes is incredibly difficult. Yet they do a pretty damn good job at that, too. Yeah, sone pitches are missed. It's not intentional and for the most part it's not that impactful. 

    A computer called strike zone is coming, simply because of the little box on TV screens. That little invention has created a monster, and it often isn't even correct. The top of that box is sometimes belt high.

    However, Newsflash: the automated dall/strike system won't get all calls correct and it won't stop the bellyaching.

    The worst part in my mind was walking Ruiz with 4 of 5 non-competitive pitches. They weren't even close. Mostly breaking balls to the Dodger's pinch runner. He is their Keirsey and we walked him with 4 clear balls. Why we did not go right after him and make him beat us was very frustrating

    57 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    They literally got Ryan for a rental. 

    And Duran... two of Falvey's biggest pitching successes have been acquired via trading players with expiring deals. No reason not to deal them as this team isn't going on a deep playoff run, and if the Twins really like these guys they can sign them back this winter when they hit the market.

    I attended the game on Wednesday. It haunted me that Rocco used Duran on Tuesday in the 9th when they led 10-5. My concerns were justified on Wednesday when he could have been available. I salute Paddack. It was a hot day in LA. There were little things like Castro pushing a bunt with bases loaded that did not take place with 0 outs. Instead, he hit into a double play. These are things that make me flustered. I played HS ball and know some simple basics. Rocco frustrates me and some of the decisions that you would not see in a skilled manager at the helm. Regardless, I am a Twins fan ..hey I have been for 60 years and will continue to be...go Twins

    14 minutes ago, S Bart said:

    I attended the game on Wednesday. It haunted me that Rocco used Duran on Tuesday in the 9th when they led 10-5. My concerns were justified on Wednesday when he could have been available. I salute Paddack. It was a hot day in LA. There were little things like Castro pushing a bunt with bases loaded that did not take place with 0 outs. Instead, he hit into a double play. These are things that make me flustered. I played HS ball and know some simple basics. Rocco frustrates me and some of the decisions that you would not see in a skilled manager at the helm. Regardless, I am a Twins fan ..hey I have been for 60 years and will continue to be...go Twins

    Bunting with the bases loaded is a terrible idea. It's virtually unheard of on professional ball. HS teams do it....

    31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Bunting with the bases loaded is a terrible idea. It's virtually unheard of on professional ball. HS teams do it....

    Fully disagree with you...seen it happen and it works at times (l was at the game and the infielders were back and would have been caught off guard)..at all levels...saw the Yankees do it and succeed...that is not a HS team .I am seriously not trying to be disrespectful, as you are listed as an old timer (I am also OLD)...but ..I have seen numerous managers with other teams at 8 different ballparks in person this year as I have in past years. Yes...it is my opinion...MY MAIN POINT HERE.. there is a noticeable difference between somebody like Roberts and Rocco. Rocco seems like a nice guy, but changes are needed on this team especially the decision making by the manager, i.e. wasting Duran on Monday. Sir, you have a right to your opinion as do I.  Have a good day and go Twins. ..hope I am wrong and they make the playoffs.

    As @USAFChief has kept hammering away today, this loss started last night when Rocco left Duran in a 5-run lead to pitch a second inning and thus made him one of the last pitchers available today.  Had Duran only been used for one inning last night, he would have thrown 12 pitches and easily available for today.  With that being said, I still may have asked him if he could get one out and brought him in for Ohtani or Ruiz if you're still hell bent on IBB Ohtani.

    Other concerns I had during the game included:

    1.  Taking out Paddack after 78 pitches.  I understand that there were two lefties in the next three and it screams Coulombe, but Paddack had just collected 2K's and a lineout in 12 pitches and went through the toughest part of the lineup in the 6th (Betts, Ohtani, and T. Hernandez).  Let Paddack go until he was in trouble, and you could have had both Coulombe and Varland warming up for matchup concerns.

    2.  PR Keirsey Jr right away.  While this was rendered moot eventually when the bases were loaded, this isn't my biggest complaint although it did take out our best hitter this afternoon. (Dodgers eventually did the same thing by taking out T. Hernandez for Ruiz)

    3.  Willi.....oh WIlli.  When the Dodgers can't find a pitcher who can throw a pitch over the plate, you hit the first pitch that he throws and weakly ground into a double play thus killing the rally.

    4. Since Duran was not available (see above), I would have flip-flopped Jax and Stewart.  In my perfect world, Duran would have been available since he wasn't uselessly wasted for 2 innings last night.  Jax would have faced Ohtani, T. Hernandez, and Freeman in the 8th in a more familiar position in the lineup and the game.  Stewart in the 9th would have faced a weaker part of the lineup and I would have seen if Duran could go at all today with the day off tomorrow and have him ready to get 1 or 2 outs if Stewart was in trouble.  

    Notice in all of this there is no blame on the umps.  We will have to see how the Ump Scorecard grades this, but my eyeballs suggest it was fairly evenly called on both sides.  The only frustrating part was that his strike zone seemed to wander as the game progressed, but it was still called evenly.  Had we executed point #1 and #3, we're not talking about a bad check swing call.  As according to the rule book, there is no such thing as a bad check swing call, but that is another argument for another day.  Fix the rule and you'll hear me complaining about it like I like to complain about everything else as a fan. 🙂

    Edited by Western SD Fan
    Cleaning up grammatical errors

    Watching Jax pitch the last half inning today, a thought came to me.  I'm thinking that Jax really likes playing in Minnesota and he knew he was pitching as an audition for the Dodgers.  So he imploded intentionally so that the Dodgers would lose interest in trading for him.  Pretty clever.

    5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    As for today's game, might have been nice to have your closer available. 

    Too bad he was needed for 2 innings yesterday to close down that 1 run win. 

    Eh Rocco?

    Hard to turn down a 5 run victory yesterday /s. We got 1 in LA which is what the spreadsheet told us is an acceptable outcome 

    5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    I watched the end of the game and turned away. 

    I was so disgusted when I saw an UGLY obvious strike 3 call from the umps on Betts I left. The video shows him a good foot or foot and a half beyond the plate. I mean, it's so obvious anyone with decent eyesight and integrity would have called it a strike. 

    Just ridiculous!

    Doc, most on here are taking a "high road" of sorts and pointing to many other things that the Twins failed to do that resulted in defeat, and the fact that "there is no check swing rule in baseball" and therefore (apparently) one cannot condemn the ump for ignoring a rule that isn't a rule, or something like that. Well...I agree with you 100%. However you slice it, that was an egregious no call. If you want to see the worst, and most significant, check swing no call, watch the video of game #7 of the 1960 World Series. Pittsburgh catcher Hal Smith, with a 1-2 count in the last of the 8th, (2 outs, 2 on, Bucs down by 1) gave a full 3/4 swing on a Jim Coates pitch that was called a ball. On he very next pitch he hit a 3-run homer. Without that there's no tie in the 9th and no legendary Mazeroski walk off. I know that the no call was not the only factor in the Twins' loss...I also know that it was wrong. 

    11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    As for today's game, might have been nice to have your closer available. 

    Too bad he was needed for 2 innings yesterday to close down that 1 run win. 

    Eh Rocco?

    Well he did use what, 5 or 6 BP guys in game 2.  An eventual blowout win.

    It is modern MLB  baseball... and statistically proven superior! To quote Master Baldelli, you've got to "trust the process ."

    A disastrous loss that basically puts the nail in the season, which sucks. Team needed a good road trip, instead they fumbled it. Hate seeing it.

    Nice to see Royce finding his form again, at least and maybe Paddack's outing gets someone hot for him that they'll overpay. But not much good to find when they look like they have to be sellers now.

    I guess that will make some people happy? Next ownership probably cleans house and Rocco gets fired if a deal gets done by the end of the calendar year or so. Feels like some people would prefer anything that got the current group fired, including losing.

    Kiersey as a pinch runner helped a little this game, but when he came up with an opportunity to hit, all I could think was we'd be better off with Jerome Kersey in that position.

    I do wonder if Ohtani is intentionally walked with Duran on the mound. That "doesn't matter who is at the plate" closer mentality is alive and well in today's game. Has Jax not earned this bulldog badge? 

    With that said... Walking Ohtani is justifiable because it's Ohtani and it's Ruiz on deck. 

    However... it's only justifiable because Ruiz was on deck.

    Once Jax walked Ruiz on incredibly non-competitive pitches. Any potential benefit of the Ohtani walk was immediately negated and flipped to a huge mistake because Freeman was in the hole following Ruiz. 

    i watched Jax throw to Ruiz like he was Ohtani.

    Watching that AB... I'm talking back to the television after every pitch. "What are you doing Griffin? What are you doing?". 

    Obviously... he couldn't hear me. 

     

    IMO walking Ohtani was the absolute right call. The Dodgers TV crew said the same exact thing, you have to walk him (Lets not forgot he has hit a homer in 5 straight games). 

    I agree with those people that say the bullpen use the prior day was a big problem, it seems like Jax and Stewart aren't great in back to back days. 

    As far as the umps go and missed called, it is part of the game, they missed a strike 3 call on Wallner, but I guess Wallner felt bad because  he struck out on the next pitch out of the zone. They missed another strike for Glasnow that cost him I think it was 6 or 7 more pitches, but he overcame (or was allowed to) and pitched 7 innings (106 pitches), IMO Roberts seen how well he was pitching and new how bad his pen is and said I have faith in this guy, and it worked, will it always probably not. 

    This series also reminded me why it is important just to get into the playoffs because anything can happen (Rocco usually makes it harder🤷‍♂️) in a short series. 

    Finally how many of the Twins batters take the same approach as Freeman does there? (My son said here comes a homer, and I said no way he is too smart of hitter to try for a homer when a slap single to left wins the game) Bader should have caught that (Which I haven't seen anybody talk about), or played it different but......

     

    9 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

    23-34 against teams >.500

    Yet interesting that we lost two out of three to perhaps the worst team in the game and followed that with being an umpire call from winning two out of three from perhaps the best team in baseball. 

    That's baseball... the margins are thin. 

    10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    A computer called strike zone is coming, simply because of the little box on TV screens. That little invention has created a monster, and it often isn't even correct. The top of that box is sometimes belt high.

    It doesn't matter if the ASZ is accurate as long as it's consistent pitch to pitch. The players will adapt. The key is eliminating the mistakes, as well as any potential bias, conscious or unconscious.

    It really aggravates me when the announcers defend a bad call because the pitcher was wild on earlier pitches, or the ball isn't where the catcher set up.

    Individual umpires have "their" strike zone. It's no different.

    8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    Watching Jax pitch the last half inning today, a thought came to me.  I'm thinking that Jax really likes playing in Minnesota and he knew he was pitching as an audition for the Dodgers.  So he imploded intentionally so that the Dodgers would lose interest in trading for him.  Pretty clever.

    Sure, why not...and the Twins deliberately lost 2 of 3 in Colorado because they really, really want the White Sox record of futility last year to remain the gold standard.

    11 hours ago, Sjoski said:

     

    The sad thing is…
    A 90-year-old grandma in a wheelchair could sit on her couch at home and still call a better game than the average MLB umpire behind the plate.

    And that’s the truth.
     

    This is absolutely, positively false.  MLB umps average about 95% accuracy in a game that involves chucking a ball a hundred miles an hour 60 feet away.  They are actually astoundingly accurate, and are only getting better.  

    Grow up.  The Twins lost because they are a bad team.  Blaming umps is for losers, denigrating them is childish.

    0-2 pitch to Ohtani ....and you give up a gopher ball ????  Twins pitchers are clueless..dont think there's much between the ears at times... to hitters like Ohtani and Judge ..you always throw the unintentional ..intentional walk..nothing ever on the plate ..if you walk them ..so be it

    Gotta score runs to win - can’t give up 0-2 count HR’s, ever - Jax absolutely CANNOT WALK the guy they want to get to with cutters/skiders…….and then dot two straight fastballs to Freeman…..who is calling pitches? - no execution!

    Bader had a chance ……. Betts was out on his checked swing.

    Tough one!

    In regards to the decision to walk Ohtani. 

    I get it and if I'm honest... I probably would have done the same thing with the combination of Ohtani at the plate and Ruiz on deck.

    However, if you really want to get the math out... The Math probably won't check out in regards to this decision.  

    With one out needed to conclude the game and a runner on first base.

    Ohtani has a .377 OBP. That alone suggests a .62% chance of getting Ohtani out regardless of his talent.

    Unless there is a stolen base from Betts. Ohtani would require an extra base hit to score Betts in that situation and tie the game. He has 56 extra base hits on the year in 465 plate appearances. According to those numbers there is a 12% chance of that happening. 

    In regards to Ruiz... He's a small sample size this year with 17 Plate Appearences with an on base percentage of .294. It doesn't mean much with such a small sample but assuming he's a legit .294 OBP guy. He is a 71% chance of making an out and not extending the game. 62% chance compared to a 71% is pretty large difference in the game of baseball... however... in one individual AB it really isn't much at all. 

    The next thing to look at is what changes with run expectancy. Two outs with a runner on 1st and 2nd after the Ohtani walk is a 34% run expectancy. Two out with a runner on 1st is a 21% run expectancy. 

    I could really use some sabermetric guy to really check the math and break it down better but on the back of this napkin... it sure does appear that the benefit of facing Ruiz compared to Ohtani is negated by placing the tying run in scoring position and putting the winning run on the base paths. 

    With all that said... It's Ohtani and Ruiz... I probably would have walked Ohtani as well just because the choice is Ohtani or Ruiz so I don't fault Rocco for possibly over reacting to someone who might be the best player in baseball right now.  




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