Core or Out the Door: Twins Trade Away Candidates, 1-5

This doesn’t make any sense: “the Twins might want to trade (Lewis) from their core to alter the team’s future”, which “could be a necessity to keep the team’s winning window open as long as possible.” How does trading from the core alter the team’s future in a positive way? And how does trading a young core player like Lewis keep a winning window open? They wouldn’t trade young core players for unproven minor leaguers, and they wouldn’t  trade them for veterans because of the cost. If the team is in a minor rebuilt, not a total tear down and starting over, wouldn’t you want to keep the young, less expensive core together? A Correa trade makes sense because they want to cut salary, though I don’t think that will happen. Brooks Lee could play SS, though he is a downgrade from Correa. Lewis stays at third, Julien, or better yet, Keaschall at second. Miranda becomes a floater, playing first or third occasionally, and DH. But the Twins can’t trade their young, inexpensive core. That’s what they build around.

This list is the same as yesterday. The Twins may have some players that other teams could use to improve their team and those teams may have some players that could improve the Twins roster. The trick is in completing transactions.

I would think that a healthy Correa and Buxton are difficult to improve upon and their histories plus the no trade contracts reduce the odds of either being traded. Wallner seems like a lock, for now, in right field. The remainder of the position players are largely fungible.

The pitching looked pretty good and I'm considerably more optimistic about Festa, Matthews, and Morris than most. There could be both additions and subtractions to the pitching staff depending on how other teams view the Twins organization.

The defense, base running, and general athleticism needs to be improved. Trades can and should be made, but this is totally up to Falvey. Rolling out the same roster in 2025 would be a tough sell.

The Twins will only make a roster-altering trade under a few, specific, circumstances;

1. Massive payroll relief.  Just trading Vazquez doesn't alter the roster, so there are only 3 players that qualify--Correa, Buxton, and Lopez.
2. The return is simply too good to pass up, like the Mariners offering Emerson and Young (great law firm name) for Wallner, for example
3. Falvey thinks he can replace the traded player more or less from within due to depth; this would likely mean an infielder or a starting pitcher

Out of these 3 possibilities, I think Ryan, Ober, and Miranda most closely fit the bill for checking at least 1, and maybe 2 buckets.

37 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

This doesn’t make any sense: “the Twins might want to trade (Lewis) from their core to alter the team’s future”, which “could be a necessity to keep the team’s winning window open as long as possible.” How does trading from the core alter the team’s future in a positive way? And how does trading a young core player like Lewis keep a winning window open? They wouldn’t trade young core players for unproven minor leaguers, and they wouldn’t  trade them for veterans because of the cost. If the team is in a minor rebuilt, not a total tear down and starting over, wouldn’t you want to keep the young, less expensive core together? A Correa trade makes sense because they want to cut salary, though I don’t think that will happen. Brooks Lee could play SS, though he is a downgrade from Correa. Lewis stays at third, Julien, or better yet, Keaschall at second. Miranda becomes a floater, playing first or third occasionally, and DH. But the Twins can’t trade their young, inexpensive core. That’s what they build around.

Trading from your core alters the future because it more closely aligns the team's prospect waves with the probable competitive window.  In Lewis' case, he's entering his first year of arb, and if he produces like he has at stretches when healthy, he'll get $12-$15M in 2027, and $20M in 2028.  That's a hefty price tag only 2 years away, especially if the Twins do think they need to do a soft-rebuild; if someone is willing to give you a couple top 100 prospects that figure to debut in 2026 or 2027 (keeping in mind the Twins don't shed Pablo's contract until after 2027, and Buxton/Correa until after 2028), that might be appealing.

That said, I'm not convinced the Twins do need to do a rebuild; there's a lot of intriguing young talent that could debut over the next two years (Jenkins, Emma, Keaschall, Raya, Morris, Soto, CJ Culpepper, and Gonzalez).  If you can get some of the young(er) players to rebound (Julien, Lewis, Miranda, Lee, Varland), or continue their positive trajectories (Wallner, Larnach, Matthews, Festa. SWR), that's 18 players, only two of whom are in arbitration currently, and only one will join next year.  Adding that to Lopez, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Sands is pretty much a full 26 man roster (only missing catchers) that could absolutely make some noise in October.

On the other hand, if the young players don't rebound, and2024's rookies stall out like 2023's did, and injuries continue to sap the team of production, trading much of the current team to turn your list of 8 close to the majors prospects into 12-15 close to the majors prospects might be the best route to take.  If you can trade Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Lewis for 6-10 Top 100 prospects, the team will be truly terrible in 2025, and probably 2026.  But 2027 could look an awful lot like 2023 did for the Orioles.

7 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I probably read these two articles incorrectly.  Not sure if this is a ranking of most likely to be traded (I can’t imagine that’s true) or a ranking of projected return from a trade (can’t see that either).  I think that it’s some combination of both, or likely a “buncha” players that could be traded, who we think of as core players.  

I think “high” likelihood of trade on an individual basis would only be Paddack, Vasquez, and Castro.  I think that the chances of Correa or Buxton being traded are close to zero.  I think that all of these players are potential trade chips if you can trade something from a slight surplus for something that fills a need.  Individually none are likely to be traded, but collectively, I would bet somebody gets traded.  

I think the Twins would be open to trading Correa, I just don't think there's any team out there willing to take on his contract given his injury concerns.  I think Correa would be willing to go to a team like the Yankees or Mets or Phillies in order to compete for titles, but again, are any of those teams going to give the Twins anything of value, especially considering that they seem to highly value Correa for his contributions beyond during games?

Castro to me makes a lot of sense; projected at almost $7M this year, hitting FA next year (and there's no way he's getting the QO), and would be highly valued by teams that want to contend as a flexible depth piece.

Pretty hard to list 2 guys in the top 5 Twins trade assets when they both have no-trade clauses. 

Pablo is the most viable, but dealing him would be waving the white flag of surrender. Since the Pohlads are selling, they won't care about that, but it sure would be gross. You'd think that it would also hurt the interest in buying because dumping Lopez would definitely tank ticket sales.

Lewis had such a rough end to his season that it feels like you'd be selling low on him. It's not like he had a healthy season in 2023.

Twins have a complicated path if they want to move a significant piece and shake up the core, because they appear to have no flexibility on payroll. You have a lot more options if you can take on payroll as part of a deal, especially when it includes younger, cheaper players going out. The self-imposed payroll limits take that off the table...or force a more complex scenario, involving moving players like Vazquez etc.

Well, no one else was willing to pay as much for Correa as the Twins when he was a free agent. So after multiple injury-shortened seasons here, it seems unlikely that anyone would be willing to pay that same high price now that he’s essentially become a part-time player. He’s not going anywhere.

As for Buxton, it’s great that he wants to stay in the Twin Cities, but maybe he should ask himself (as Kirilloff did) whether in doing so he’s helping the team. It would be great to have him healthy and in centerfield every day, but his history tells us that’s not going to happen. So he’s not going anywhere, either.

But trading away pitching? No, no, no! Leave something of value for a hypothetical new owner to build around!

In this list we have two players that need to take a good look at themselves in the mirror.  Are they team players or not.  Buxton has shown to me over the years that he is not a team player.  Lewis needs to keep his mouth shut and stick with hitting in the clutch.  If the coaching staff can get those two to playing more within the team concept great!  If not; then move them, because for me they represent a big part of what is wrong in Twins Territory.

The Twins don't have a lot of areas with surplus talent at the MLB level. There's 3B (Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Castro), lefthanded hitting corner outfielders (Larnach, Wallner, Rodriguez, Jenkins) and RH relief pitchers. The organization needs lefthanded pitching and catching.

The only player I'm pretty sure they'll deal this offseason is Chris Paddack. They can trade either of Castro or Vazquez at the deadline and get the same trade return as they would in the offseason.

With the team up for sale I don't see them making big moves. Falvey is not going to do anything risky. He's likely to be looking for a new job when the new owner takes over.

7 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

In this list we have two players that need to take a good look at themselves in the mirror.  Are they team players or not.  Buxton has shown to me over the years that he is not a team player.  Lewis needs to keep his mouth shut and stick with hitting in the clutch.  If the coaching staff can get those two to playing more within the team concept great!  If not; then move them, because for me they represent a big part of what is wrong in Twins Territory.

I am not at all sure I've seen anything from Buxton that demonstrates he is NOT a team player.  I do agree that Lewis would be better served with more playing and less talking.  That said, it was dumb trying Lewis at 2nd near the end of the season.

Something to consider is that the Twins may trade several players where the pitching staff is realigned (replace one traded out for one acquired) at the same time as a position player or three get moved in an attempt to balance the roster while improving team speed and defense. One move will not fix the roster.

The Twins started to trade from the core last season with terrible results. To continue down this path we could just as well tear everything down. That's means adding more to the huge glut of prospects we already have so that doesn't make sense either. Our core isn't the problem, it's management. Let's trade them away, it makes more sense. The players that should be traded aren't on this list. The others that should be traded are redundant prospects. Let's stop hoarding prospects. The '23 core is who finally got us success in the post-season. We need to add to it via trade not chip away at it & compromise the chemistry & talent that it possesses.

The plan to dismantle the core is more like a plan to give CWS competition for the cellar than a serious plan to take the division & extend to what we did in '23. 

You cannot trade away the reasons why they are good, just to get some developmental players for possible future success. Unless they are top prospects and equally as valuable. I don't think any of these players are tradeable except maybe Lopez and or Buxton. But just expect less of a window to be contending. 

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

5) Joe Ryan - I think Ryan would command a sizeable return, and he's likely much more coveted than Bailey Ober based on reputation and the way the Twins have deployed him. Dealing Ryan away with 3 years of team control and arbitration when he's considered the 2nd best pitcher in the rotation would be a pretty aggressive move. I think the Twins would only do this if they got an MLB ready ace potential pitcher in return like an Andrew Painter or Brandon Sproat (who I wanted to target in my offseason plan last year...). No way you can move Ryan without having the potential to get something back even better than he is expected to be.

4) Buxton's going nowhere. Full NTC, negative trade value.

3) Carlos Correa is shown with positive trade value on Baseballtradevalues.com, but I think the only legitimate potential trade partner is the Washington Nationals. If the Twins can move Correa's full contract, they will, but again, I think the Nationals are the only dance partner in MLB. Other teams already have "good" shortstops or payroll restrictions or aren't seen as possessing win-now potential.

2) Pablo Lopez. Unlike most people, I am not and never have been that high on Pablo Lopez. Historically, he's been a back end #2 or elite #3 guy in terms of actual results. He's unusual to classify because he does have longer straight stretches of dominance, but it's almost like he's either an ace or a #5 rotation arm and you roll the dice on which guy you get. A $22MM 3.75 ERA pitcher is a luxury which stretches the Twins' payroll situation, though I'm at a loss as to how the Twins would replace Lopez since Minnesota actually needs an ace.

Baseballtradevalues also disagrees with me having Lopez at +37.4 surplus value, and MLBTR staff has been on record saying Lopez would instantly be one of the elite coveted arms available this offseason if the Twins were to make him available.

I do think the likelihood of Minnesota going to back to the Terry Ryan/Derek Falvey roots and assembling a rotation full of #3-4 guys is high. It's also possible the Twins could package some elite talent (some they've acquired from moving Lopez) to pry a near ready very high ceiling starter prospect away from a team.

1) Royce Lewis. Though I'm not planning on being a season ticket holder, trading Royce Lewis would seriously impact my opinion of the team. He's the only guy on the roster I would bet on likely winning an MVP in his career, and the only guy on the team who has "it" when it comes to being the face of the franchise. Lewis could be the next Kirby Puckett. The way the Twins treated him last year is unbelievable. If anything showed why Baldelli should've gotten a pink slip, it's how he treated the face of the franchise as a number in a database.
 

We just have to agree to disagree on the value of noting BTV as worthwhile.

Joe Ryan does have immense value and one can hope Falvey talks with teams for some ideas. Perhaps Ryan could be replaced by either Luzardo or Alcantara from Miami. No idea what Miami is looking for right now.

Royce Lewis is a lightning rod as far as anyone proposing him in a trade. You might remember that there were discussions last offseason that proposed a Lewis for Gilbert deal, which was vociferously shot down on Twins Daily. There is plenty to like about Lewis. However, he really struggles on defense and his muscles seem to have shrunk his speed. I'm in favor of keeping Royce and moving him to first base but am also aware that Lewis was likely exasperated by the Twins handling of him last season. I don't see how you can compare him to Kirby. 

The Twins and Falvey are in a tight spot because the team is unbalanced and expecting a total turnaround with the same roster doesn't really seem like a plan. However, we have seen Falvey sit on his hands before and perhaps, as many on here suggest, there will be almost no changes this offseason. 

The FO isn’t making a trade unless they have a complete meltdown of a season in ‘25.  Probably only a 3% chance of that happening because of the growth of young talent. The Twins simply ran out of gas in ‘24 so they just need to add more fuel for ‘25. Margot and Farmer did nothing for us so replacing just 2 guys could change everything. 
I honestly don’t see any way that we trade away any pitchers. Lopez is the Ace they we are building around. Ryan and Ober are co#2.  

If you thought last offseason was slow, Get ready for big nothing moments and another wave of prospects joining the existing core. 

I don’t see them making any significant trades until they have a solid feel for how the market feels about the value re: a sale. You don’t do major work on a car or house AFTER you put it on the market. Maybe if it becomes clear no on is interested at your asking price…

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

3) Carlos Correa is shown with positive trade value on Baseballtradevalues.com, but I think the only legitimate potential trade partner is the Washington Nationals. If the Twins can move Correa's full contract, they will, but again, I think the Nationals are the only dance partner in MLB. Other teams already have "good" shortstops or payroll restrictions or aren't seen as possessing win-now potential.

2) Pablo Lopez. Unlike most people, I am not and never have been that high on Pablo Lopez. Historically, he's been a back end #2 or elite #3 guy in terms of actual results. He's unusual to classify because he does have longer straight stretches of dominance, but it's almost like he's either an ace or a #5 rotation arm and you roll the dice on which guy you get. A $22MM 3.75 ERA pitcher is a luxury which stretches the Twins' payroll situation, though I'm at a loss as to how the Twins would replace Lopez since Minnesota actually needs an ace.

Baseballtradevalues also disagrees with me having Lopez at +37.4 surplus value, and MLBTR staff has been on record saying Lopez would instantly be one of the elite coveted arms available this offseason if the Twins were to make him available.



1) Royce Lewis. Though I'm not planning on being a season ticket holder, trading Royce Lewis would seriously impact my opinion of the team. He's the only guy on the roster I would bet on likely winning an MVP in his career, and the only guy on the team who has "it" when it comes to being the face of the franchise. Lewis could be the next Kirby Puckett. The way the Twins treated him last year is unbelievable. If anything showed why Baldelli should've gotten a pink slip, it's how he treated the face of the franchise as a number in a database.
 

If Correa was to agree to waive his no-trade clause, the Twins would still have to eat a sizeable portion of his contract. He still has value.  But he also has 2 consecutive years where he's had issues. He had poor results in 23 and in 24 his play was great but he was only available for a little more than 1/2 the year. And he's now over 30. 

I agree that Lopez is up and down. He has stretches where he's elite and then he turns into Varland. Other teams know all this too. I'd personally stick with him. He's closer to becoming a dominant pitcher than he is in becoming a pumpkin. 

Lewis is interesting in the sense that it's now clear he will not be an elite defender. What is unclear is how his bat will play. He's shown flashes of MVP type play. Yet at the end of this season he looked more like Jerry Lewis than Royce. He still has problems staying on the field as well. And he's not the face of the franchise. Yet! That's the problem. He needs to stay on the field and produce. How did Baldelli mishandle Lewis? If Seattle wanted to trade Gilbert for Lewis straight up. The Twins should jump on it. Logan is closer to winning a Cy Young than Lewis is to winning a MVP 

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

The FO isn’t making a trade unless they have a complete meltdown of a season in ‘25.  Probably only a 3% chance of that happening because of the growth of young talent. The Twins simply ran out of gas in ‘24 so they just need to add more fuel for ‘25. Margot and Farmer did nothing for us so replacing just 2 guys could change everything. 
I honestly don’t see any way that we trade away any pitchers. Lopez is the Ace they we are building around. Ryan and Ober are co#2.  

If you thought last offseason was slow, Get ready for big nothing moments and another wave of prospects joining the existing core. 

What is your definition of a meltdown? Would it be ok if the Twins won, say, 82 games in 2025 and finished in fourth place in the AL Central again? Will the positive individual achievements of several specific players combined with a record above .500 (82-80) constitute an ok 2025 season?

I read the comments and your statements generally represent the overwhelming majority of those who participate on this site. I respect that but also wonder what constitutes acceptable for the 2025 Twins. 

35 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

How did Baldelli mishandle Lewis? If Seattle wanted to trade Gilbert for Lewis straight up. The Twins should jump on it. Logan is closer to winning a Cy Young than Lewis is to winning a MVP 

Some folks believe that when Falvey/Baldelli had Royce Lewis take ground balls and play at second base that this messed with Lewis in a big way. This can be viewed from different angles but is the foundation for the "mishandling" comment (it wasn't my comment). Hope that helps.

The Lewis for Gilbert idea is a year old and related to the Polanco trade. Seattle was fairly adamant about not trading a starting pitcher for Polanco unless it was part of a larger deal where the Mariners received more in return. Thus, the Polanco plus Lewis for Gilbert conversations last offseason. It is all water over the dam now. It is in the past, it doesn't matter. In any event, most TD users are against any suggestion of trading Lewis. This is what I know that should answer your questions.

A lineup of Miranda at first, Lee at second, Correa short, Lewis third, Wallner right, buck center, Larnach left, jeffers catching

With Castro, Vasquez on the bench is competitive - everyone else is tradeable 

Pitching with Lopez, Ryan, Ober... Jax Duran and Alcala - is competitive. Everyone else is tradeable.

This leaves us with 11 spots to fill either via trade or from within. Those 11 spots plus staying healthy will determine if we are competitive or better than that. 

14 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

A lineup of Miranda at first, Lee at second, Correa short, Lewis third, Wallner right, buck center, Larnach left, jeffers catching

 

A Major League sieve at 1st, 2nd and 3rd.