Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • No Half Measures


    Cody Pirkl

    Josh Donaldson will be one of the many hot topics among Twins fans this winter. Will he stay or be shipped out? The Twins should be looking to fully commit to whatever decision they settle on.

    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    In a vacuum, Josh Donaldson is not overpaid despite what some frustrated fans may tell you. His time missed in 2020 was frustrating albeit not as costly as it appears considering his prorated salary in the 60 game season. In 2021, he was actually one of the regulars in the lineup day in and day out. As a whole, Donaldson has slashed .243/.355/.474 with the Twins, far from the “wasted payroll” reputation some have pinned on him.

    That being said, he’s 35 years old with a tremendous injury history in addition to having about $50m remaining on his salary over the next two years. The result of all of these factors leave the Twins with a fantastic player with an enormous ceiling and about as low of a floor a player can have. For that very reason, it’s difficult to blame them for at least exploring the trade market given the year they just came off of. They shouldn’t be so quick to pull the trigger on a deal without lining themselves up for a slam dunk however. 

    This was a recently reported idea for a trade between the Twins and Milwaukee who will likely need an impact third base option in 2022. It’s a perfect example of the type of trade the Twins shouldn’t do. There’s almost no scenario where the Twins don’t pay down significant money to get Donaldson’s contract off the books. The issue is trades like this make the Twins worse in the present and offer little payoff for the future.

    Dumping about $35m in future payroll would likely look appealing to ownership. That being said, doing so probably lands them in a situation like this one where the Twins take on money of their own in Jackie Bradley Jr.’s $9.5m and $6.5m buyout in 2023. JBJ slashed .163/.236/.261 en route to a -0.8 fWAR finish on the season. Worse than Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons etc.

    Perhaps taking on money isn’t out of the question, but the younger pieces in the deal have to be at least somewhat appealing. In this scenario, they receive 19 year old RHP Logan Henderson and 22 year old outfielder Joey Wiemer, #21 and 23 in the Brewers system respectively. Prospects from the 20s range aren’t very exciting for most teams, but the Brewers in particular are a bottom 5 system by most prospect sites. 

    So in review, the Twins get to save a bunch of money in the future, although not a ton after taking on a much less valuable player. Their lineup and team as a whole takes a significant downgrade in regards to the 2022 Opening Day lineup. They also get two prospects who have a very insignificant chance of making any impact on the team in the future. This type of trade would be a mistake.

    The Twins have two options in my opinion. They may very well be gearing up to spend big this winter and acquire some legitimate pieces via free agency and trade. In which case, gamble on the health of Josh Donaldson who will still be one of the premier players on the team if healthy. His salary doesn’t impede their spending plans nearly as much as it gets credit for.

    The second option is to come to terms with 2022 not being the year. If you don’t want to spend down immediately for a comeback season, paying most if not all of that contract in a trade should be the goal. It’s already on the payroll and one way or another, they’ll pay some sort of price on it. Might as well write a fat check to a competing team in a deal where the recipient gets instantly better and the Twins can command some impactful prospect capital in return.

    One way or another, the Twins need to commit 100% when it comes to the Josh Donaldson decision. There’s no point in taking half measures for a team whose winter will have an enormous tilt not only on the 2022 season, but the next few years to come. Should they hold onto their star third baseman or sell him off for the best trade package? Let us know below!

    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    I favor the second option. A space needs to be cleared for Miranda, and the Twins desperately need a full year to get a better assessment of their prospects at the big league level. There's likely no need for Donaldson here in 2022. I like him, and I wish this was 2019 again so he could have played a role on an up-and-coming contender in MN, but it's not. Brewers would be a good fit.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     That trade  suggestion stinks on many levels. 1st it adds to our 40 man dilemma, 2nd reduces our impact level, 3rd it doesn't reduce the payroll that much, 4th I believe Miranda isn't ready quite yet and could use the mentoring that Donaldson would provide (not saying that he could put some time in the majors this year). Hopefully we can find an adequate and cheaper CF sub than Bradley.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

    There's likely no need for Donaldson here in 2022.

    Well, this really depends on the direction the Twins are taking this offseason. If the team is handing the pitching over to their prospects until they learn "on the job", then we expect 100 losses for a couple of years and Donaldson doesn't make sense for 2022. That makes sense.

    However, if the Twins intend to run with the White Sox or even reach .500 baseball in 2022, the scenario changes and Donaldson is a key feature of the team. In an attempt to be competitive, the Twins would not consider any trade of JD unless it is sure to make the team better in 2022. Josh Donaldson is still good at the plate and in the field and there should be plenty of DH opportunities as well to get him off his feet while keeping his bat in the lineup. 

    Falvey will look at the two choices above. I expect Donaldson back next year, although I have no idea what plans the Twins have in mind.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    We chose to pay Josh the money that's in his contract. I ignore money when I look at baseball because none of it is real to me. But to pay him to play somewhere else really is throwing money away. I love Miranda and he looks great but we still don't know if he's ready for the majors. That's one of the reasons I was frustrated that we didn't bring him up at the end of last season. But if he's as good as he looks we'll find a way to play him. We're not going to have Simmons. If we've trade somebody it might be a rise homeranda could easily replace one of our outfield DH first base group and he could fit in there too.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    That trade suggestion makes me puke.

    • Donaldson (3.2 bWAR) + $15MM to Milwaukee (2 years Total Salary = $13.5MM per season)
    • Bradley, Jr. (-0.7 bWAR), Henderson (4th Rounder), Wiemer (MLB Top 200ish, rising fast) (1 year Total Salary = $9.5MM)

    Donaldson's metrics suggest he should have had a 4+ WAR season and a OPS/wRC+ in the 140s if not for extremely poor luck last year while Bradley, Jr. was worse than a AAA replacement player and will cost the Twins $10MM. Bradley, Jr.'s decline is not a fluke, his K rate is trending south, and while his exit velocity and hard hit rates looked good, the barrel rate, HR/FB rate, and pop up rates were all poor suggesting he was making poor contact between firing off worm burners and soft liners or fly balls. With Bradley, Jr.s extreme pull tendencies, the shift robs the would-be eyesight of all those fast grounders and turns them into outs. Again, in this day and age of baseball with the shift and over 400 plate appearance to flatten out the luck fueling his abysmal season's wRC+ 35, it's not a fluke that Bradley, Jr. had a terrible season at the plate. Maybe not wRC+ 35 terrible, but certainly far, far below average.

    Donaldson at $13.5MM per season would be a steal on its own. Henderson is a long shot more akin to the Twins pitcher selections of old relying on movement and control, Wiemer probably has more to offer than Wallner or Sabato, but he's certainly not something like a top 5 Twins prospect (or probably top 10 right now). I view Bradley, Jr. as a Jake Cave at this point. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I see very little chance of getting a quality return for JD during the offseason. Either you're eating a ton of money and watching your team get worse while hoping on a lottery ticket prospect, or you're eating a little money while watching your team get worse and getting nothing in return. I think waiting til the deadline is a smarter move. He's got less money on the books and if he's raking again somebody will want him. If the team is doing well and he's raking then you keep him as that was the plan when you gave him the deal to start. Obviously take calls and listen to any offers, but if I'm the Twins FO I'm not actively shopping him during the offseason. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Echo all previous comments that the proposed trade is disgusting and offers the Twins nothing more than a small pittance of financial relief and nothing more.

    Less we forget, Donaldson's injury this season was a hamstring issue and not the dreaded calf issue which has plagued him previously. He played in 135G, had over 500 PA and over 400 AB, albeit, some of those came as a DH. His numbers were very similar to his career production. And there is a very enlightening BLOG on TD where bean5302 really breaks down his season in minute detail that basically shows he might have been even better in 2021 with a little more BABIP luck and his skills haven't diminished. That means, decent health, a little more time spent at the open DH to assist and preserve, hes on target to again be a very productive hitter in 2022. 

    Except for a few bizarre miscues, especially early in the season when it seemed the Twins were under some kind of general/universal curse, his defense was again very good, though his range may have slipped somewhat.

    But let's stop there for a moment and look at the "dude" and not just the player. Donaldson is absolutely a "red ass" as a player. That is NOT an indictment of him as a person. It's a long held term for an intense player. And if you don't think the best Twins teams, including their 2 WS teams, didn't have a couple "red asses" on them you are either too young or weren't paying proper attention. He's a very different personality to the intense, but more laid back Cruz. But like Cruz, from the day Donaldson donned a Twjns jersey, players have flocked to him for advice on hitting and approach. And he has responded in kind. Despite a few on the field incidents that may have left a few of us shaking our heads, he has been totally professional and never been anything negative during this disappointing and frustrating season. 

    He brings offense, defense, experience and leadership as well as some "red ass" to 2022 that the Twins will need between 3B and DH. 

    His trade just won't bring back anything substantial enough unless it could, maybe, bring back a high quality back of the pen arm. Other than something of that nature, his value is remaining a Twin for 2022 and splitting his time between 3B and some time at DH.

    It's up to the Twins FO, and Rocco, and opportunity that always happens in regard to things like injury, to find room for Miranda and others to pave their way for 2022 and the future.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I am in trade Donaldson camp. To me, it's a salary dump, don't expect high return, maybe a few lower rated prospects in positions Twins need some depth in minors. Don't understand apprehension about Miranda, doesn't have anything left to prove at AAA. Use money saved from Donaldson's contract to sign Buxton and help get pitching.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    I'll be honest. I'd much, much rather move Sano and allow Donaldson to platoon at DH/3B while Miranda platoons 3B/2B/DH.

    Can (would) JD play/platoon 1B? 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I am in the "Keep" Donaldson camp.  He's "worth" far more to the Twins than what he would bring in a trade.  And despite  my ongoing desire to trade Sano, as a "negative" value (like Donaldson) he too is worth more to the Twins than what we would ever get in a trade.  Guys like Arraez and Jeffers are the guys I'm leveraging (and a couple minor league arms) to improve the Twins major league level pitching.  The Twins really don't have to "shed payroll" in trades to improve the team.  The FO "plan" should have been to pay Buxton, pay Berrios etc... all along.  Now, with Berrios "gone" the FO has even more payroll flexibility to work with.  Miranda will get his chances.  But keeping Donaldson will allow the Twins to ease Miranda into the lineup.  In fact, trading Arraez to improve our SP will allow Miranda more opportunities than selling Donaldson off for cheap.  Once the twins are approaching next season's trade deadline we will see where this team is at.  But every effort should be made this off season to COMPETE for the division crown in 2022.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    17 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

    I am in trade Donaldson camp. To me, it's a salary dump, don't expect high return, maybe a few lower rated prospects in positions Twins need some depth in minors. Don't understand apprehension about Miranda, doesn't have anything left to prove at AAA. Use money saved from Donaldson's contract to sign Buxton and help get pitching.

    The problem is they wouldn't be able to dump any significant salary. Even if they don't bring any real prospect back they'd still have to kick in a ton of money and wouldn't really be dumping enough money to help sign Buxton let alone Buxton and pitching. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    20 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

    I am in trade Donaldson camp. To me, it's a salary dump, don't expect high return, maybe a few lower rated prospects in positions Twins need some depth in minors. Don't understand apprehension about Miranda, doesn't have anything left to prove at AAA. Use money saved from Donaldson's contract to sign Buxton and help get pitching.

    This isn’t an either/or between Donaldson or Buxton, or anyone else for that matter, in regards to salary resources. Having Donaldson on the team does not preclude that we then can’t sign Buxton and a SS and top of the rotation pitcher, imo. Further, we would still likely have to pay a LOT of his salary in a trade or get less of a player return, neither which makes it worth trading him. And trading Donaldson now immediately worsens the team for next year, both defensively and offensively. I agree Miranda has nothing left to prove in AAA, and wish he’d been given some playing time in the majors this year, but we need to see Miranda adjust to the bigs, both offensively and defensively, before we jettison that strength we have by having Donaldson on the team. Get Miranda playing time with the Twins next year and see what we have. Just because he did well in AAA does not mean an immediately successful player in the majors. How many times have we seen that … someone good in the minors not be all that in the majors? A LOT. The best is to keep Donaldson for now, and rotate Miranda in next year and if he looks competent, THEN look to trade Donaldson. Donaldson holds a lot of value to the Twins next year, imo, and trading him now would be horribly short-sighted.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Donaldson and Sano have flaws and injury concerns, but their upsides are huge. There is room for both Sano and Donaldson in the lineup between 3B, 1B, and DH even if one has a desire to see Kirilloff at 1B and Miranda getting at bats. The rookies have the ability to fill in at a corner outfield spot and Miranda can also play 2B. The Twins expect anther good year from Josh Donaldson and a team would have to offer a legitimate player and pick up his contract for a trade to happen. That doesn't seem too likely. Finally, a part of signing a decent free agent is how a team treats those players after they sign. I believe part of the Twins everyday usage of Simmons after the trade deadline was out of respect for their shortstop. Donaldson stays.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    5 hours ago, Squirrel said:

    This isn’t an either/or between Donaldson or Buxton, or anyone else for that matter, in regards to salary resources. Having Donaldson on the team does not preclude that we then can’t sign Buxton and a SS and top of the rotation pitcher, imo. Further, we would still likely have to pay a LOT of his salary in a trade or get less of a player return, neither which makes it worth trading him. And trading Donaldson now immediately worsens the team for next year, both defensively and offensively. I agree Miranda has nothing left to prove in AAA, and wish he’d been given some playing time in the majors this year, but we need to see Miranda adjust to the bigs, both offensively and defensively, before we jettison that strength we have by having Donaldson on the team. Get Miranda playing time with the Twins next year and see what we have. Just because he did well in AAA does not mean an immediately successful player in the majors. How many times have we seen that … someone good in the minors not be all that in the majors? A LOT. The best is to keep Donaldson for now, and rotate Miranda in next year and if he looks competent, THEN look to trade Donaldson. Donaldson holds a lot of value to the Twins next year, imo, and trading him now would be horribly short-sighted.

    I really like Donaldson and I was liked that they signed him even with the risk associated with signing a a contract where he will turn 37 at the end of his last season.  However, I think you could make a case that keeping Donaldson is short sighted.  IMO, Miranda with a season under his belt will be better in 2023 than Donaldson.  Even if they are equal players in 2023 and assuming they can get someone to take two-thirds of his salary, Miranda and $14M invested elsewhere makes the team better in 2023. 

    Of course, they could they keep Donaldson and bring Miranda up.  Miranda at 2nd is not better than Polanco at 2B.  Playing either Miranda or Donaldson at 1B does not make the team better and I seriously doubt playing him in the OF makes us better.  Our roster construction sucked last year which was part of the problem.  I don't think it is at all probable to make a couple additions to what we have an be a real contender.  It's not viable through free agency and I would not trade future capital for the hope of contending in 2022.  I don't believe the Twins will either and we will hear from the disgruntled fans here.  What happened with San Diego / Philly and the Mets.  Fans will insist you have to go big or go home.  We will forget that everyone cursed Tampa for trading Snell and letting Morton go.  We will forget that the Giants made tweaks, invested little and made minor trade investments and we will ignore that Boston, even with their revenue, signed a couple of modest priced free agents.  Yes, they are getting big production out of Hernandez but he signed a moderate 2 year deal.  Boston's total net payroll change last year was peanuts.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    San Diego was a victim of the Giants winning 107 games and the Dodgers 106.  The Twins do not play in a division like that.  We SHOULD be able to compete and contend in the A.L. Central next year.  That's why the Twins should keep both Donaldson and Sano.  I trade Arraez to give Miranda a bigger role.  Miranda has better power.  Rocco refuses to just make Arraez the leadoff hitter, so I'm trading Arraez for pitching.  I'm targeting the A's and I'm looking for Montas, Bassit, Manaea, Kaprillian etc...  Miranda can fill the void of Arraez leaving in a trade.  The Twins could go BIG and look for Montas,  or look for a couple arms like Bassit and Kaprillian.  The Twins need starting pitchers, more than they need Arraez in the lineup.  With all the young arms the Twins have, guys will be on innings limits.   Our roster this past season was "uneven."  This off season the FO needs to correct that. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    A couple thoughts:

    1) I'm on board to trade Donaldson.  At his age we are looking at a likely dropoff in his production next year or the year after.  This may be our last chance to let his talent/production make him attractive as a trade chip.  Even if we get a flyer prospect for him, it may be the time to do that.

    2) Losing his defense (though, it is also trending down) will hurt and I personally love what he brings to the clubhouse.  But '22 is likely a retooling year while the pitching pipeline develops.  I'd rather let Arraez and Miranda get time at 3B then deposit those ABs into a declining player.

    3) Moving on from Donaldson frees up a significant amount of money to pursue pitching and other needed positions.  Would I rather have Arraez and Noah Syndegaard or Donaldson and some scrub?  For me, that choice is relatively easy.  No disrespect to JD, loved the signing, I just think you have to think a year or two ahead in a situation like this.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    I really like Donaldson and I was liked that they signed him even with the risk associated with signing a a contract where he will turn 37 at the end of his last season.  However, I think you could make a case that keeping Donaldson is short sighted.  IMO, Miranda with a season under his belt will be better in 2023 than Donaldson.  Even if they are equal players in 2023 and assuming they can get someone to take two-thirds of his salary, Miranda and $14M invested elsewhere makes the team better in 2023. 

    Of course, they could they keep Donaldson and bring Miranda up.  Miranda at 2nd is not better than Polanco at 2B.  Playing either Miranda or Donaldson at 1B does not make the team better and I seriously doubt playing him in the OF makes us better.  Our roster construction sucked last year which was part of the problem.  I don't think it is at all probable to make a couple additions to what we have an be a real contender.  It's not viable through free agency and I would not trade future capital for the hope of contending in 2022.  I don't believe the Twins will either and we will hear from the disgruntled fans here.  What happened with San Diego / Philly and the Mets.  Fans will insist you have to go big or go home.  We will forget that everyone cursed Tampa for trading Snell and letting Morton go.  We will forget that the Giants made tweaks, invested little and made minor trade investments and we will ignore that Boston, even with their revenue, signed a couple of modest priced free agents.  Yes, they are getting big production out of Hernandez but he signed a moderate 2 year deal.  Boston's total net payroll change last year was peanuts.

     

    If you reread what I wrote, I said that trading him now, this off-season, would be short-sighted ... not not trading him ever. Miranda will get his opportunities next season, either as a back up on the roster or a call up. If all goes well and he proves himself ready to take over as the starting 3rd baseman, then you trade Donaldson. But not now.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

    If you reread what I wrote, I said that trading him now, this off-season, would be short-sighted ... not not trading him ever. Miranda will get his opportunities next season, either as a back up on the roster or a call up. If all goes well and he proves himself ready to take over as the starting 3rd baseman, then you trade Donaldson. But not now.

    I see where you are coming from and the hold and see approach is just fine and could well be the best approach.  My thought is to trade him whenever the opportunity presents itself..  Donaldson could become untradeable if he continues to be hampered with injuries or simply declines.  That hurts in 2023 and it also has a modest cost ($6M) in 2024.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    16 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

    A couple thoughts:

    1) I'm on board to trade Donaldson.  At his age we are looking at a likely dropoff in his production next year or the year after.  This may be our last chance to let his talent/production make him attractive as a trade chip.  Even if we get a flyer prospect for him, it may be the time to do that.

    2) Losing his defense (though, it is also trending down) will hurt and I personally love what he brings to the clubhouse.  But '22 is likely a retooling year while the pitching pipeline develops.  I'd rather let Arraez and Miranda get time at 3B then deposit those ABs into a declining player.

    3) Moving on from Donaldson frees up a significant amount of money to pursue pitching and other needed positions.  Would I rather have Arraez and Noah Syndegaard or Donaldson and some scrub?  For me, that choice is relatively easy.  No disrespect to JD, loved the signing, I just think you have to think a year or two ahead in a situation like this.

    I don't think the bolded part is true. The Twins are going to have to eat money whether they get a good prospect or me in return. They're not saving enough money to sign Thor simply by trading Donaldson. That's why I don't think it makes sense to trade him now. The Twins will simply have to eat too much money to move him and then you're getting worse while not freeing up money to improve elsewhere.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I don't think the bolded part is true. The Twins are going to have to eat money whether they get a good prospect or me in return. They're not saving enough money to sign Thor simply by trading Donaldson. That's why I don't think it makes sense to trade him now. The Twins will simply have to eat too much money to move him and then you're getting worse while not freeing up money to improve elsewhere.

    Depending on the trade partner I don't think that's necessarily true.  Brewers...maybe.  Mets? maybe not so much.  

    What I don't want is that contract as a deadweight as we try to add on pitching.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

    Depending on the trade partner I don't think that's necessarily true.  Brewers...maybe.  Mets? maybe not so much.  

    What I don't want is that contract as a deadweight as we try to add on pitching.

    Paying another team to have him play for them is still dead weight. Kicking in $25M still means that's $25M the Twins won't be spending the next 2 years on new contracts. I don't think the payroll of the other team matters that much in instances like this. Donaldson wouldn't get 2 years $50M for a contract this offseason if he was a FA. Unless the Twins are adding prospects on their side no team is taking on the 2 years $50M left on his deal. Even if they're the yanks or dodgers. The Twins would have to kick in money no matter who they trade him to. A pretty significant amount probably.

    The question is what would other teams be willing to give him if he were a FA. The Braves were the only team close (reportedly) when he signed 2 years ago. So teams didn't think he was worth the original deal then so they likely don't think he's worth what's left now. No team is going to send back anything worthwhile and also take on more $ than Donaldson is worth. To get out from under real money they likely have to kick in prospects of their own and I think that'd be significantly worse than just keeping him. There's no reason to believe he'll be significantly worse in 2022 than in 2021 as he's pretty notoriously dedicated to the craft of hitting. He won't be worth the $50M he still has on his deal over the next 2 years as his defense declines more, but I think he's still worth more hitting well for the Twins than the Twins paying another team to have him hit well for them.

    I think best case is he gets off to a crazy hot start next year and you can trade him at the deadline if the team is struggling. Would likely have to pay less to move him next season than this offseason.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 10/16/2021 at 9:52 AM, Doctor Gast said:

     That trade  suggestion stinks on many levels. 1st it adds to our 40 man dilemma, 2nd reduces our impact level, 3rd it doesn't reduce the payroll that much, 4th I believe Miranda isn't ready quite yet and could use the mentoring that Donaldson would provide (not saying that he could put some time in the majors this year). Hopefully we can find an adequate and cheaper CF sub than Bradley.

    It really is a horrible trade suggestion!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

    Paying another team to have him play for them is still dead weight. Kicking in $25M still means that's $25M the Twins won't be spending the next 2 years on new contracts. I don't think the payroll of the other team matters that much in instances like this. Donaldson wouldn't get 2 years $50M for a contract this offseason if he was a FA. Unless the Twins are adding prospects on their side no team is taking on the 2 years $50M left on his deal. Even if they're the yanks or dodgers. The Twins would have to kick in money no matter who they trade him to. A pretty significant amount probably.

    The question is what would other teams be willing to give him if he were a FA. The Braves were the only team close (reportedly) when he signed 2 years ago. So teams didn't think he was worth the original deal then so they likely don't think he's worth what's left now. No team is going to send back anything worthwhile and also take on more $ than Donaldson is worth. To get out from under real money they likely have to kick in prospects of their own and I think that'd be significantly worse than just keeping him. There's no reason to believe he'll be significantly worse in 2022 than in 2021 as he's pretty notoriously dedicated to the craft of hitting. He won't be worth the $50M he still has on his deal over the next 2 years as his defense declines more, but I think he's still worth more hitting well for the Twins than the Twins paying another team to have him hit well for them.

    I think best case is he gets off to a crazy hot start next year and you can trade him at the deadline if the team is struggling. Would likely have to pay less to move him next season than this offseason.

    You won't need to pay all two years of his contract.  Why on earth do people think that's the only way he can be moved?

    That would indicate a guy with absolutely no on-field value and that is clearly not true.  The Mets were willing to take him on with relatively minimal financial help.  They likely will be willing to again too if the prospect price is minimal.

    It's odd to me that people are arguing about how important he is to the 2022 Twins, but that he's so value-less that you'd have to pay his entire salary just to get a deal done.  While not an impossible scenario, it sure doesn't seem to fit this one.

    If the Twins paid his entire salary they should get a really solid return.  If they pay some of his salary they should get a noteworthy player.  If they pay none they probably get a flyer who is in the 15-20 range of someone's farm.  JD is a good player, he's not Jackie Bradley Jr.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 10/17/2021 at 12:54 PM, Squirrel said:

    This isn’t an either/or between Donaldson or Buxton, or anyone else for that matter, in regards to salary resources. Having Donaldson on the team does not preclude that we then can’t sign Buxton and a SS and top of the rotation pitcher, imo. Further, we would still likely have to pay a LOT of his salary in a trade or get less of a player return, neither which makes it worth trading him. And trading Donaldson now immediately worsens the team for next year, both defensively and offensively. I agree Miranda has nothing left to prove in AAA, and wish he’d been given some playing time in the majors this year, but we need to see Miranda adjust to the bigs, both offensively and defensively, before we jettison that strength we have by having Donaldson on the team. Get Miranda playing time with the Twins next year and see what we have. Just because he did well in AAA does not mean an immediately successful player in the majors. How many times have we seen that … someone good in the minors not be all that in the majors? A LOT. The best is to keep Donaldson for now, and rotate Miranda in next year and if he looks competent, THEN look to trade Donaldson. Donaldson holds a lot of value to the Twins next year, imo, and trading him now would be horribly short-sighted.

    What number did you come up with for payroll to form this opinion?  A true top of the rotation guy is $30M and if you are looking to contend this year you need a 2nd good SP so let's say $15M.  What are we budgeting for Buxton?  20M/yr?  The top SS guys are going to be 25-30M/yr.  That comes to $170M/yr without spending any money on the BP, correct?  I would bet a lot of money they don't spend $170 or $160 for that matter.  I would be pleasantly surprised if they spent $150M.  My guess is they spend $135-140M. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

    You won't need to pay all two years of his contract.  Why on earth do people think that's the only way he can be moved?

    That would indicate a guy with absolutely no on-field value and that is clearly not true.  The Mets were willing to take him on with relatively minimal financial help.  They likely will be willing to again too if the prospect price is minimal.

    It's odd to me that people are arguing about how important he is to the 2022 Twins, but that he's so value-less that you'd have to pay his entire salary just to get a deal done.  While not an impossible scenario, it sure doesn't seem to fit this one.

    If the Twins paid his entire salary they should get a really solid return.  If they pay some of his salary they should get a noteworthy player.  If they pay none they probably get a flyer who is in the 15-20 range of someone's farm.  JD is a good player, he's not Jackie Bradley Jr.

    I never said they'd have to pay his entire salary. I said they'd have to pay the balance of the 50M above what he'd be worth on the market now to get any sort of prospect back. JD isn't worth 25 a year for his age 36 and 37 seasons. No team (Mets or any other high spender) is going to give the Twins even a flier for the right to take on 50M in payroll for JD. They just aren't. 

    JD is worth more to the Twins because trading him means they'd still be paying part of his salary and they wouldn't be getting much, if anything, in return. If teams wouldn't pay him 50 over 2 on the open market what makes you think they'd trade even a flier of a prospect for the right to trade for him and pay him more than they think he's worth? That's why people say he is important to the 2022 Twins, but he's got little value on the trade market.

    The Mets very well may have been willing to eat almost all of his contract at the deadline, but they would've been asking for the Twins to send prospects with him to balance it out. So the Twins would be sending prospects out just so they could get out from under his contract. If you're trying to win in 2022 that would make sense as long as you're bringing in MLB players with the saved money. So they'd basically be trading prospects for the chance to sign a pitcher or SS with the 21/25M saved while creating a hole at 3B. If they miss on all the top guys in that price range and are stuck signing multiple lower level guys for that extra 21/25M they'd have traded the better player plus prospects for the chance to sign 2 or 3 mid-level guys. That's awful asset management. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...