Danny Abriano of SNY wrote an article yesterday on Berríos as a potential fit for the Mets. In it, he makes a lot of great points on how valuable José could be to that club and how the Mets are a team particularly well-suited to meet the Twins’ high asking price.
The Mets are currently in first place in the NL East, but hold just a 2.5-game advantage over the Phillies, who are just a game up on Atlanta and 2.5 games up on Washington. It’s a tight race. New York was expecting to have plenty of pitching by now, but Carlos Carrasco and Noah Snydergaard have both experienced setbacks in their attempts to rehab from injuries.
It doesn’t seem like either of those two are in the Mets’ long-term plans, either. Syndergaard is a free agent at the end of this year and Carrasco has a $14 million option with a $3 million buyout. That’s especially notable because Marcus Stroman is also a free agent after this season, leaving the Mets with some uncertainty in their 2022 rotation plans.
That’s why Berríos seems like such a nice fit for them over someone like Jon Gray of the Rockies, who would just be a rental.
So what’s in it for the Twins?
Abriano suggests the package would need to be similar to what the Mets gave up for Marcus Stroman — Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson. He packages Tylor Megill and Robert Dominguez as a similar duo but thinks it would take something more like Megill and J.T. Ginn. Maybe even more than that.
If you’re looking for prospects dripping with upside, this isn’t the kind of deal that’s going to get you going. The inclusion of Megill does make this very intriguing for anyone who’s not willing to sacrifice 2022. He’s already contributing to the Mets. Well, that’s actually underselling it.
Like a lot of teams in 2021, the Mets have been decimated by injuries. That’s created an opening for Megill and he’s ran with it. He started this season dominating in Double A, moved up for three starts in Triple A and has been brilliant in five starts for the Mets.
Megil, a 6-foot-7 right-hander, has pitched to a 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and has averaged 10.5 K/9 in 24 innings pitched. His fastball averages 94.6 mph and he pairs that with a slider and a changeup. He’s been sort of like a savior to their rotation, so why would the Mets trade him?
Uncertainty. Megill is very much a pop-up prospect. He was drafted in the eighth round back in 2018 and came into this year ranked 21st in the Mets system according to MLB Pipeline and 25th by FanGraphs. Is this breakout for real, or will Megill, who turns 26 soon, prove to be a flash in the pan?
As for Ginn, he was the high-rated prospect entering this year (sixth in the Mets’ system by MLB Pipeline and seventh by FanGraphs), but is still not cracking top-100 lists. Drafted out of Mississippi State in the second round in 2020, Ginn has a 2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 as a 22-year-old in Low A. This is his first year back after recovering from Tommy John, so it’s quite possible the best is yet to come.
For me, just Megill and Ginn would not be enough. It’s an intriguing starting point, though. Getting a pitcher you can plug right into the MLB rotation and a prospect who grades out similarly to someone like Matt Canterino gets you listening.
If you’d prefer a higher-upside package, Twins Daily’s Matthew Taylor put together a package of shortstop Ronny Mauricio and right-handed pitcher Matt Allan, both consensus top-100 prospects. There were two other Berríos trade hypotheticals offered up in that article, which you can check out here.
If you’re looking to build a package of your own, Twins Daily’s Thiéres Rabelo recently took a look at the fit between the Mets and Twins in a trade deadline piece that would be a great place to start.