Who will lead the team in home runs this year?

[KirbyHawk75]

Prediction Josh Willingham-21

 

Dark Horse: Miguel Sano: After June call up..

[Brandon]

Stephen Drew is my Dark Horse.

 

But is all seriousness I too will go with Willingham with 30

[Squirrel]

I'm going with Arcia.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1. Arcia = 30

2. Mauer between 15-20

3. Willingham = 15 (traded at deadline)

…Sano will have a handful

 

Puckett went from 4 to 31 in one season, although he was a little older than Arcia at the time, but it's spring so why not hope Arcia explodes!?

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, Puckett had the sculpted body of a Greek God, it was pretty obvious he was juicing. Clearly you've explained that increase in HR beyond further discussion.

 

I pick Arcia also, but only leading the team at 24. I'll bet Sano is close but is handicapped by not getting called up until late June.

[PseudoSABR]

I'll pick the wildcard, Kubel.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Steroids are a hell of a drug.

 

So are hot dogs, ask Babe Ruth.

[Twins Twerp]

Hughes?

[stringer bell]

I couldn't believe that Kirby went from 4 to 31 homers (I thought the power increase was more gradual). I found a couple of interesting things at BBRef. Puck's RBI increased only from 74 to 96 (while he "drove in himself" 27 more times). Also, the top 10 comparables to Kirby are all good players, but none of them are Hall of Famers. The dirty little secret is that Puckett was a fine player, but a marginal HoFer, at best.

[johnnydakota]

with his back to the wall and recovered from his concussion and wrist aliment , my dark horse is Plouffe, at 26HRs, 14 as a third basemen and the other 12 as a leftfielder and DH once Ham is traded and Sano takes over 3rd

[stringer bell]

I posted a poll quite a while ago asking about who would lead the team in homers. I picked Arcia then. I guess that is still my call.

[Shane Wahl]

Arcia and Plouffe, tied at 23.

[twinsnorth49]

Arcia-27

[Bark's Lounge]

I'll pick the wildcard, Kubel.

I'm feeling your MoJo on this pick... I agree.

[Thrylos]

The dirty little secret is that Puckett was a fine player, but a marginal HoFer, at best.

 

That's up for discussion. Here is a fact:

Kirby has the highest batting average for a right hand hitter who played after 1951, if you exclude the 2 active RHB players (Kirby's is .3181, Pujols leads with .3211 and Cabrera is second with .3208; give those guys a few more decline seasons, and...)

 

Also, is Ozzie Smith (he of the career .666 OPS) a Hall of Famer? How about Joe Gordon? (he is a good comparable btw, other than the batting championships and the rings of Kirby)

[Squirrel]

That's up for discussion. Here is a fact:

Kirby has the highest batting average for a right hand hitter who played after 1951, if you exclude the 2 active RHB players (Kirby's is .3181, Pujols leads with .3211 and Cabrera is second with .3208; give those guys a few more decline seasons, and...)

 

Also, is Ozzie Smith (he of the career .666 OPS) a Hall of Famer? How about Joe Gordon? (he is a good comparable btw, other than the batting championships and the rings of Kirby)

 

This is a thread about who people think will hit the most home runs this year. Let's please stay on topic. If you wish to have a different discussion, please start another thread on that topic. thanks.

[Guest USAFChief]

I like the Plouffe pick...I'll cross my fingers and go with that.

[Craig Arko]

If he's here most of the season, Willingham. Otherwise Arcia should mash a few too.

 

I also think Mauer will surprise, and that Sano will do well in SLG percent when he's up, but won't be up long enough this season.

 

How's that for equivocating?

[Thrylos]

Arcia hit 24 HRs last season as a 22 year old between the majors and AAA. The season before he hit 17 between Fort Myers and New Britain.

Plouffe's ceiling seems to be around 30, Kubel's ceiling was 30, Willingham is not getting any younger, so unless Sano is up in the majors to stay, I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.

[Monkeypaws]

Like Johnny Dakota's pick, but i think Willingham rebounds and unloads this year: 28.

 

I'd like to vote Oswaldo, but until I see him fix his strike zone management, I'm taking the proven track record.

[cmathewson]

I'll say Plouffe with 26 and Arcia with 24.

 

Kubel: 20

Mauer: 18

Sano 16

willingham: 14(traded)

Dozier: 13

Hicks: 12

Pinto 10

Florimon: 10

[KirbyHawk75]

If Plouffe hits 20 or more home runs we could possibly get a decent prospect for him?

[thetank]

Arcia hit 24 HRs last season as a 22 year old between the majors and AAA. The season before he hit 17 between Fort Myers and New Britain.

Plouffe's ceiling seems to be around 30, Kubel's ceiling was 30, Willingham is not getting any younger, so unless Sano is up in the majors to stay, I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.

If they hit this many HRs the Twins will win 81 at least.

[stringer bell]

This is a thread about who people think will hit the most home runs this year. Let's please stay on topic. If you wish to have a different discussion, please start another thread on that topic. thanks.

 

My bad. I should have probably put that in the Mauer/Puckett thread.

[DocBauer]

with his back to the wall and recovered from his concussion and wrist aliment , my dark horse is Plouffe, at 26HRs, 14 as a third basemen and the other 12 as a leftfielder and DH once Ham is traded and Sano takes over 3rd

 

I like this! And I really can't disagree with it in any way other than to argue a bit with the numbers per position appearance. He could play a bit more 3B, mix in some 1B, etc, but that's silly nit picking.

 

Healthy, a couple full seasons under his belt, I think Plouffe just might be in that 24-26 range. I fell Arcia will run neck to neck with him, though he might be a bit more streaky in his production.

 

Willingham, if healthy, could, of course be right there, but if he's hitting that well, I still believe he's traded. That takes him out of the equation. Though I repeat if he accepts the DH role with Molitor's help, experience and advice, I'm not opposed to keeping him if there isn't a decent value for him.

 

Kubes is a dark horse who could be a runner. But it depends not only what he has left in the tank, but how the roster and opportunity shakes out.

 

Mauer is not going to challenge. But fully healthy, not so beat up a 1B now, 500 plus AB's, 40 Dbls and 15 HR's are very possible, with a high of 18. Just not sure his stroke allows for 20.

[JB_Iowa]

I haven't got a clue .... but I would be very happy to have:

 

 

2 players @25 or above

+

1 player @20 or above

+

1 player @17 or above

+

1 player @15 or above

 

That would be at least 102 homers by the top 5 power hitters on the team -- a pretty substantial increase over the 77 that the top 5 hit last year.

 

Is it likely? Probably not.

 

Is it possible? With some help from the gods of health and some warm summer days, I think so.

[scottz]

I'll go with the kid that has the best walk-up music. And that, my friends, is Mr. Oswaldo Arcia. (2013 HRs = 24 in 479 ABs between Rochester and the big club...as a 22 year old!)

[Brabes1987]

Arcia 25-30

Sano will give him a run for his money if he makes the opening day roster

[TheLeviathan]

Arcia with 22. We aren't going to trot much this year.

[DocBauer]

I haven't got a clue .... but I would be very happy to have:

 

 

2 players @25 or above

+

1 player @20 or above

+

1 player @17 or above

+

1 player @15 or above

 

That would be at least 102 homers by the top 5 power hitters on the team -- a pretty substantial increase over the 77 that the top 5 hit last year.

 

Is it likely? Probably not.

 

Is it possible? With some help from the gods of health and some warm summer days, I think so.

 

I'll see your proposal and offer a counter one.

 

Arcia and Plouffe as your mid 20's-ish. But your other 20 HR producer could be tough. Too many variables. What does Kubes have left and is there going to be real AB's for him, when might Sano be ready, does Willingham rebound, and if he does, does he stay?

 

But how about I take your 20HR guy away, and offer up 4 players instead of 2 who might give you that 15-17ish HR mark? Mauer, Dozier, Pinto and possibly Hicks over 500 AB's could all be in that range.

 

(Sano is the gravy and icing on top all in one potential package)