Crickets chirping

[stringer bell]

The crickets are chirping all over MLB. Delmon Young (on a minor league deal) was the biggest news yesterday, so no teams are making big moves right now. I wonder how long the price and years stay up for Morales and Drew. No one is biting at the prices those two are putting out there. To me, everyone is looking for a bargain with the guys who are rated as the top free agents. For some reason, I can't find the writeup on Drew that noted the projections for him were all way down. I remain hopeful that Ryan will do what he does best--acquire good talent from other teams--in trading a couple of out of options hurlers.

[tobi0040]

The crickets are chirping all over MLB. Delmon Young (on a minor league deal) was the biggest news yesterday, so no teams are making big moves right now. I wonder how long the price and years stay up for Morales and Drew. No one is biting at the prices those two are putting out there. To me, everyone is looking for a bargain with the guys who are rated as the top free agents. For some reason, I can't find the writeup on Drew that noted the projections for him were all way down. I remain hopeful that Ryan will do what he does best--acquire good talent from other teams--in trading a couple of out of options hurlers.

 

Here are the twins fantasy rankings. Mauer is still rated at catcher (7th) and Dozier is 13th. Willingham is our top rated OF at 52nd. Plouffe is 29 at 3b. Regarding the Drew/Florimon debate, they didn't even rate Florimon and they rated 33 SS. They called him a "negative fantasy player". Drew's carrer OPS is 140 points higher. Given our low payroll and that we will not find a better opportunity for upgrade, this is a no-brainer

 

http://m.startribune.com/sports/?id=240032491&c=y

[Marta Shearing]

To the crowd who says "dont spend money, develop the young players". Who you gonna develop at SS? Santana is old. If he was gonna turn into something, he'd have shown signs by now. Polanco is two years away. Drew makes so much sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are the twins fantasy rankings. Mauer is still rated at catcher (7th) and Dozier is 13th. Willingham is our top rated OF at 52nd. Plouffe is 29 at 3b. Regarding the Drew/Florimon debate, they didn't even rate Florimon and they rated 33 SS. They called him a "negative fantasy player". Drew's carrer OPS is 140 points higher. Given our low payroll and that we will not find a better opportunity for upgrade, this is a no-brainer

 

http://m.startribune.com/sports/?id=240032491&c=y

 

To be fair, fantasy stats give no weight to the one skill that Florimon excels at in baseball.

 

But overall, he's still a pretty bad MLB player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This link shows players who will be free agents next year.

 

There are some SSs there and some really good SPs.

 

There are SSs in that they exist, but next year's FA class doesn't look all that good at that position. Cabrera and Hardy are the only ones as good as Drew, I'd say.

 

And pitching-wise, they are some really good ones, but I doubt all of them will reach FA, and as much as TR has restored some of my faith this offseason, no way do I see him outbidding everyone for an ace on the FA market: Kershaw, Lester, Scherzer, Shields.

 

The Twins are looking at a likely non-competitive season in 2014 again, and it's a bit of a luxury because we don't "need" to fill every spot this offseason. But I'd rather use that as leverage than an excuse to wait. I'd make Drew a very competitive offer, as well as the remaining FA starters. Maybe you score one, boost the 2014 club a bit, and Minnesota starts to look like an even better destination for future FA; if not, no problem, try again next year.

[jay]

As has been pointed out, if any of the 5 SS are available, they may cost a 1st Round Pick given that the Twins are likely to improve incrementally. I'm not sure if that is worth waiting for a chance to get Yunel Escobar or not (seems like the best fit for the Twins)- I would bet that the Rays will exercise their 2015 option on him. The rest are either unaffordable (Ramirez), poor with the glove (Lowrie), have an option pending (Nakajima), overrated (Cabrera) or long in the tooth (many others).

 

How about the need to move out of the bottom quintile on offense?

 

It'll depend on how Cruz, Morales, and Drew come out, but I think we'll see qualifying offers play out different next year for more players of that caliber (and many of the SS available next year). Saying 'they'll all get qualifying offers anyways and the Twins won't have a protected 1st rd pick next year so just get Drew now' is awfully subjective to a lot of ifs. I could probably prove I'm an astronaut with fewer ifs. Based on how much more the Twins can spend according to your very own numbers, I'm not sure it's fair to say any of them will be unaffordable either.

 

I'll be happy if the Twins make some more moves to upgrade the team via trade or FA, but to answer the original question in the thread... I don't feel some big onus for them to do it right now and they've already exceeded my expectations.

[Joe A. Preusser]

So after pocketing over 100 million in profits over the last 3 years, you believe it is ok for ownership and the front office to once again not spend there 50-54% which this year would put the teams payroll at around 127.5 million? After 3 straight 95+losses seasons ,the team should take a wait and see attitude? As for signing Drew, I would much rather see Terry W Ryan sign Diaz and have a young guy grow up with the team , then have an often hurt average defender who costs us the 45th pick...Just saying

 

Umm, I think it's ok for a business to earn as much profit as they want. If you don't like the product, don't buy it. Where does this sense of entitlement come from?

 

Moderators, going to delete this post as well?

[Highabove]

Umm, I think it's ok for a business to earn as much profit as they want. If you don't like the product, don't buy it. Where does this sense of entitlement come from?

 

Moderators, going to delete this post as well?

 

How much of a Hennepin County Taxpayer subsidy did this particular business receive??

[Joe A. Preusser]

How much of a Hennepin County Taxpayer subsidy did this particular business receive??

 

How much did this business pay in state income taxes for every bloated salary that played a game for or against it's team? How much did this business increase the revenue of the businesses miles around it? How much pure enjoyment did this business bring to millions of fans?

[jokin]

It'll depend on how Cruz, Morales, and Drew come out, but I think we'll see qualifying offers play out different next year for more players of that caliber (and many of the SS available next year). Saying 'they'll all get qualifying offers anyways and the Twins won't have a protected 1st rd pick next year so just get Drew now' is awfully subjective to a lot of ifs. I could probably prove I'm an astronaut with fewer ifs. Based on how much more the Twins can spend according to your very own numbers, I'm not sure it's fair to say any of them will be unaffordable either.

 

I'll be happy if the Twins make some more moves to upgrade the team via trade or FA, but to answer the original question in the thread... I don't feel some big onus for them to do it right now and they've already exceeded my expectations.

 

Hanley Ramirez won't be unaffordable? And I never said they would all get qualifying offers. And it's imperative that all of the "ifs" questions come into play here in early 2014. We know what the cost parameters are for an available SS at a significant upgrade at the position.......and that's the point, you limit having to ask and forecast the "ifs" of the future..... the guy available today led the AL in SS OPS, he's the one near-top-tier SS available now. How those costs might play out a year from now are far more muddled, but if Stephen Drew was protected with a QO this year, it only follows logically that all of the other high-end SS (who don't extend with their present clubs) will be, as well.....and does anyone see the Twins going after the likes of Ramirez, who should command up to $30M/yr? Or even, the next level down SSs sure to asking for $15M/yr? I sure don't see TR opening up Pohlad's checkbook, he isn't going to budge on this one, or any other outside FA player as long as he's the GM until his hand is forced, ala Willingham in 2012, and the Nolasco/Hughes signings this year.

 

We differ greatly on the "big onuses". As it stands right now, this team is going to repeat in the bottom quintile on offense, which, nothwithstanding the improvement in the rotation, still means another year of potentially, and very likely, reaching 90+ losses again. It would be acceptable if they didn't have the resources available and the opportunities available in the FA market, but they do.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Drew>Florimon. Signing him would make the team better. If TR were operating at the edge of his budget, the issue of whether the extra cost for Drew was worth it would be good to debate. But TR hasn't approached the maximum budget, at least according to the stated 50-52% of revenue mantra. So any move that will improve the teams chances, he should do. Sign Garza--who cares if there is a glut of out of option fringy guys? Garza's innings give the Twins better odds at winning games than Diamond's or Deduno's (or Correia's).

 

TR seems to do pretty well maximizing the Twins' minor league system, trying to accumulate the maximimum number of prospects with upside as possible, using whatever means possible. He doesn't seem to be using the same approach with the big-league club, leaving dollars and wins on the table.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Who cares? The money is there. They can spend it, or they can put it in their pockets. Do something. Throw us some crumbs. Give the fans something to get excited about. They owe us that for filling that ballpark for four years. I dont care if they overpay. I dont care if it only nets one more win. The money is there. They are under the 50-52%. Sign Drew. He's not a savior, but he's an upgrade.

 

I waffle on Drew personally and am on the "don't care either way" bandwagon for this pickup... But the question you've been asked a few times, and it bares repeating, is who else should they sign? You keep saying throw money at guys? At this point who? They've gotten pitching help that they desperately needed. A SS would definitely help, but only Drew fits the bill of one that can help. Beyond that who? They have prospects in the high minors at any "open" position.

 

I think most of us are for spending money where it makes sense, but at the end of the day, we are talking about millions of dollars. Spending it for the sake of spending it is a good way to prolong our misery.

[jay]

As it stands right now, this team is going to repeat in the bottom quintile on offense, which, nothwithstanding the improvement in the rotation, still means another year of potentially, and very likely, reaching 90+ losses again.

 

That's certainly possible, but definitely not as written in stone as you're making it out to be. As I'm sure you know (and may even be referencing), FG introduced a new feature that provides depth charts and projections for 2014 using Steamer. The Twins are projected to pick up 17.1 WAR from their non-pitchers which, as you mentioned (cited?), would be bottom quintile.

 

Go through it position by position though and tell me there isn't significantly more upside than downside:

C - 3.0 WAR, feels about right

1B - Mauer projected for only 3 WAR with a lower wOBA than we've seen from him in a longgg time and a lot of negative defensive value. Look at Oliver... 2.3 WAR higher based on basically just defensive value. Mauer could be +2 WAR above the Steamer projection very easily, +3 with a good year.

2B - Dozier projected for just 1.3 WAR after putting up 2.8 last year, including his dismal start. Again, Oliver disagrees significantly here pegging him to match last year (still including that start). He can easily be +1.5 here by only matching all of last year, as high as +2.5 if he maintains his June-Sept pace from this year when we saw his mechanics and plate discipline change.

SS - Still no bat value, but Florimon brings the D. Steamer has him regressing there while Oliver doesn't. Very easy to be +.5 here, +1 with even the slightest offensive improvement at all.

3B - Relatively upbeat on Plouffe, but keep Sano in mind here and the possibility of what he could bring relatively early on.

LF - If Hammer is healthy, these projections have to be his floor. Their models can't tell that he played injured last year. They see an aging slugger who declined badly last year. Wouldn't be tough to be +1 here, +1.5 if he rebounds a bit more than I think he will.

CF - Presley projects decently from what we've seen. Can't ignore chance of Hicks breaking out or even Buxton coming up later in the year.

RF - Arcia also projects out decently, but plenty of room for him to blossom beyond those numbers as well.

DH - Kubel gets zero love here. Twins can easily pick up .5 here, +1 if Kubel shows up.

 

So, extremely easy to see the Twins closer to 22 WAR on offense with upside for even as much as 26-27. 22 would put them right at league average. I don't think we're as bad off as you're making it sound. If 17 and bottom quintile is the over/under, I'm betting heavy on the over.

[shs_59]

RE: Crickets chirping

 

And I expected them to (allllll off-season long)

 

I didn't figure we'd sign Nolasco and Hughes both. One of them ? Sure.

 

I was actually one of the fans, in the mindset that, I was rather HOPING they'd spend less than 78-82 Million for the upcoming season's roster/ total payroll. In that for the 2015 season they'd make some big FA splashes next off-season. Like a SS & outfielder or 3B and Catcher or something; Plus maybe a front-line starter. (Homer Bailey? B. Morrow?)

 

(granted it would of been sweet to net Salty this yr at 3 yr for $ 24/27 Million , he got $21.)

 

So what the Twins have done, to this point, including the Doumit for Gilmartin swap and bringing in Kubel , Bartlett , Kurt Suzuki and maaaaybe 1 of M. Guerrier, Johan Santana or Yuk-Sin Moon

...

Blows by far, my widest range of expectation for the 2014 season.

 

I think they are by far and away 'treating the fans well' for supporting the team the last 3 seasons.

 

We must remember, 2015 / 2016 are the years to realisticly compete NOT 2014.

[oldguy10]

I think it is all setting up very nicely to see who is not or never will be ready when the good kids are and then there will be much better and brighter FA acquisitions next Winter. Hopefully the stop-gap players (we know who they are) will be history come opening day in 2015.

[johnnydakota]

Umm, I think it's ok for a business to earn as much profit as they want. If you don't like the product, don't buy it. Where does this sense of entitlement come from?

 

Moderators, going to delete this post as well?

 

Entitlement? The Minnesota Twins belong to the fans.....Pohlads only hold the paper on them and pocket the profits. They made promises when they asked for 350 million to build there new stadium. Now all im asking is for them to keep there word.

 

I have supported this team since i was old enough to understand the game.I have cheered for them, cried for them,( see Harmon as a Royal, or Rod as an Angel) been broken hearted and even bled for them ( when i was 7, Rod stole home and I jumped up and down on the sofa and my dad took the razor strap to me)Collected cards,posters balls and bats.

I attended games when there were only 6,000 people in attendence and 5,000 were kids shipped in from school. Now most fans have storys ,memorys, So to me the Twins belong to us..... The Fans without our money ,there wouldnt be any team

 

So telling me to quit supporting them because ownership wants to make bigger profits ...well If i finished that statment im sure to get banned.

 

Lets hope we can all agree we want OUR Minnesota Twins to be back on top , instead of where they are now, even if we disagree about how to get there

[Mike Sixel]

Not one person has "spend money just to spend money". Not one. Those asking for more money to be spent are asking them to spend money, that they have, on good players. I was happy wtih the fact they did not dumpster dive for pitching. I am disappointed they have done nothing to help the OF defense or the hitting. I am also disappointed that they thumped their chest about how much money they spent, and really, the payroll is barely up while they are getting $25MM more in money. Instead of bragging about signing guys, they should really just stop talking about payroll if they aren't asked, imo.

[TheLeviathan]

So, extremely easy to see the Twins closer to 22 WAR on offense with upside for even as much as 26-27. 22 would put them right at league average. I don't think we're as bad off as you're making it sound. If 17 and bottom quintile is the over/under, I'm betting heavy on the over.

 

Except that you put an almost entirely positive spin on your projections. How often does everything go right?

 

The number of "ifs" in your projection are precisely the problem. When you have that many question marks, it's fairly likely that a decent percentage of them will not be answered with a surprise positive outcome.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not one person has "spend money just to spend money". Not one. Those asking for more money to be spent are asking them to spend money, that they have, on good players.

 

Except that there's really not a lot of good players. That's the point others are making.

[tobi0040]

If the Twins can't make a trade for JJ Hardy, they could offer him a contract next off season (if he chooses to become a free agent).

 

If we wanted to trade for Hardy, we should track Hoey down and sign him, then flip him for Hardy.

 

Done and done.

[tobi0040]

How much did this business pay in state income taxes for every bloated salary that played a game for or against it's team? How much did this business increase the revenue of the businesses miles around it? How much pure enjoyment did this business bring to millions of fans?

 

I am a huge Twins fan. I watch them almost every day and make it to the ballpark 5-10 times a year. But as a fan it is hard not to feel like a sucker.

 

The Twins consistently let good players walk via free agency or trade. The culprit was always the Metrodome. If you give us a stadium, we could keep guys, sign free agents, and compete. That was the mantra.

 

The Pohlad’s got their stadium. They put up $130 million dollars and we put up $390 million dollars in the form of sales taxes. The value of the team, according to Forbes went from $216 million in 2006 to $578 million in 2013. By my calculation, the Pohlad’s did not really put up any money because the increase in team value ($362 million) vastly exceeded what they put up ($130 million).

 

So the statement about nothing wrong with a business making money does not really apply in my view, as 3M, Medtronic, etc. are not funded with tax-payer money. Do these companies get tax savings when they build an office? Yes, but I assure you the state is not building them the office for free, not even close. And those benefits are tied to actual results, like number of emlpoyees that make $50k or more, etc.

 

The other argument that does not apply is “Target field helps the tax base and economy”. Of course it does, but I assure you those profit seeking businesses I mentioned above could cause more damage to the local economy if they left town and took their 20,000 jobs with them. Taxes, home values, etc. would be in a much worse position than if the Twins left.

 

Circling back here to the Twins payroll, given the facts above, I would like to see the Twins go out and sign Drew and potentially a DH (or trade for one). They have money to spend and these signings would help the team and not block any of our top prospects. Paying $400K for Pedro Florimon to hit .200 with an OPS just in the 6’s is embarrassing. Like I said in another post, the Twins payroll was 19^th in 2006, if we have an $80M payroll this year we will be 22^nd. We have lagged the league even with the stadium. Promises were broken and we have been fleeced.

 

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/33/330400.html

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

[Mike Sixel]

Except that there's really not a lot of good players. That's the point others are making.

 

 

"they should not spend more because we aren't close to winning"

"they should not spend money because in 3 years there might be a SS ready"

"they should not spend money because the player is not "worth it"" even though he is better than what they have...

 

Neither of those is about who is available, are they? They are about money, and whether or not the money is worth is, or about prospects that don't exist or are years away. Maybe I'm reading peopel wrong, but I don't care if a player is worth the money, if that contract does not keep them from signing another player or block a player that is less than a year away. Not sure why anyone else cares if the contracts are good or not, frankly.

[DJL44]

potentially a DH

 

Jason Kubel

[Blackjack]

People who are thrifty bargain basement shoppers don't turn over a new leaf because all of a sudden they have money to spend. My 84 year old mother who grew up during the depression just sold her house for $100,000, her out of pocket expenses per month are < $500, she'll never spend all her money, yet she'll run across town to the second grocery store to save 49 cents on soap. And it makes her happy to do it.

 

Just because Terry Ryan has more money to spend doesn't mean he will, or should, spend it. He's always looked for good value and always will. If he doesn't think its a good baseball decision hes not going to spend the money. I'm ok with that. Throwing millions at a marginal upgrade player is not the way to build a longterm stable franchise.

 

Maybe, just maybe, in 2015 he'll overspend to bring in an extra player or two to get the Twins over the hump - and he can justify it by the money he didn't spend in 2014.

[tobi0040]

The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple.

 

Here are their career numbers:

 

Drew .264 avg, .329 OBP. A year with 550 AB will roughly yield 145 hits, 30 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB

 

Floriomon .219 avg, .278 OBP, 550 AB will yield roughly 120 hits, 23 2B, 2 3B, and 10 HR, 44 BB

 

I am confused how 25 hits, getting on base another 30 times, and 17 more extra base hits does not win more games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are their career numbers:

 

Drew .264 avg, .329 OBP. A year with 550 AB will roughly yield 145 hits, 30 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB

 

Floriomon .219 avg, .278 OBP, 550 AB will yield roughly 120 hits, 23 2B, 2 3B, and 10 HR, 44 BB

 

I am confused how 25 hits, getting on base another 30 times, and 17 more extra base hits does not win more games.

 

It absolutely wins more games. It accounts for 2-3 wins a season, which is right where WAR pegs Drew over Florimon.

 

Amazing how things tend to work out that way.

[tobi0040]

It absolutely wins more games. It accounts for 2-3 wins a season, which is right where WAR pegs Drew over Florimon.

 

Amazing how things tend to work out that way.

 

Exactly. So the issue is, would the Twins rather have an $80M payroll and 3 fewer wins, or an $87M payroll with 3 more wins? I think they would rather pocket the money. I hope I am wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Exactly. So the issue is, would the Twins rather have an $80M payroll and 3 fewer wins, or an $87M payroll with 3 more wins? I think they would rather pocket the money. I hope I am wrong.

 

Well, I think it's not quite *that* cut and dry. Drew has concerns surrounding him. He hasn't proven to be very durable. He has some ugly splits. He costs a draft pick (though I'm not terribly concerned with that, as it's a second round pick for the Twins).

 

If the Twins like Drew as a player, money shouldn't be a hurdle. If they don't like Drew as a player, then signing him is a bad idea.

 

And really, none of us have any idea of what they think of Drew as a player on a three year deal. I happen to think he's an acceptable risk because Florimon is bad at baseball and the Twins are unlikely to find anyone internally who can competently man the shortstop position. But it's not really a clear-cut case of "they HAVE to sign him".

[cmathewson]

The real value of Drew is not this year. He might push their 82-win season to 85. Still, they don't make the playoffs, and likely slip at least two slots in the draft.

 

The real value of Drew is next year and the year after. The difference between 90 and 92 wins could mean the difference between going to the postseason or not.

 

The question should not be how much better is he than Florimon? but how much better will he be than Santana? I don't think it's 2 wins. I think Santana will be at least a win above replacement. I'm not sure Drew at his age will continue to be above 2 WAR over the life of his contract. Now you're talking really thin margins for your investment.

[oldguy10]

After reading all of the Florimon vs. Drew stuff plus "between the lines" suppositions I still think Bartlett and/or Santana will be just fine at shortstop until a much better player than any of these four winding up on the roster in 2015 or 2016.