Crickets chirping

[jokin]

Originally Posted by zwiefz People are talking about $10 million a year plus a draft pick for Drew. For 32 more points of batting average and 4 more homers than Florimon? I'll pass.

 

 

 

 

It has more to do with Drew's 111 OPS+ versus Florimon's 70 OPS+.

 

Batting average and homers tell only part of the story of those two players. Last year, Drew was 11% better than league average (which is very good from the SS position) while Pedro Florimon was 30% worse than league average with the bat.

 

That's an enormous difference.

 

Really, batting average and homeruns mean very little in a vacuum unless the numbers are absurdly high or low.

 

I thought this topic had been settled and put to bed.....ie, the 20X cost for Drew relative to Florimon using WAR is easily justified and as someone noted above, the fluky nature of Florimon's 2013 SLG overestimates his future plate value. Sure, Drew @ 111 OPS+ is 11% better than league average, but the qualitative difference between Drew and Florimon must be put into better perspective..... that 11% number is actually 22% ABOVE SS league average.....while Florimon is 23% BELOW SS league average.

 

To further illustrate the numbers:

 

MLB average for SS: .681 OPS 91 OPS+

Stephen Drew 2013: .777 OPS 111OPS+

Pedro Florimon 2013: .611 OPS 70 OPS+

 

Red Sox 2013 SS production: 1st in AL in OPS/wOBA/wRC+

(Stephen Drew topped out above each stat of his team total production #s).

 

MN Twns 2013 SS production: 11th in AL in OPS/wOBA/wRC+

(By contrast, Florimon underperformed his team averages in each stat).

 

And then when you look at Drew's LHB split of .876 OPS/136 OPS+, you have someone that, properly deployed and exploited, can add a sorely needed run-producing weapon to what currently looks like a downgraded offense over 2013's already anemic output.

 

Signing Drew spends clearly available money that clearly upgrades the team this year, it isn't "spending just to spend" as it does nothing to obstruct the rebuild plan for the longer term. You add one more legitimate bat at DH and a Garza-level starting pitcher, you suddenly become relevant AS the prospects settle into the lineup, rather than hoping WHEN they settle into the lineup.

[tobi0040]

What free agents are you thinking they should go after?

 

I would like to add that the Twins could take on salary via trade as well.

 

I think we could have added a DH that would have helped our lineup (in addition to SS). I could care less that we have Parmalee and Colabello. Or we could have signed a corner OF and pushed Willlingham to DH and improved on both sides of the ball.

[tobi0040]

Spot on hit the nail right on the head. They hide behind "we're not gonna spend just to spend", then conveniently put it in their pockets. Guess what? This is minnesota. You have to overpay to attract free agents. And as I stated, they aren't anywhere near their 50-52%. Its all profit, baby.

 

I just looked up historical payroll info and I wish I hadn't. In 2006, the Twins had a payroll of $63M and were 19th in the league.

 

If we have an $80M payroll next year, we would be 22nd based on last years ranking. Why exactly did we get a stadium? We have not even kept up with the league.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-look-inside-the-2006-open-day-payrolls/

 

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

[jokin]

I just looked up historical payroll info and I wish I hadn't. In 2006, the Twins had a payroll of $63M and were 19th in the league.

 

If we have an $80M payroll next year, we would be 22nd based on last years ranking. Why exactly did we get a stadium? We have not even kept up with the league.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-look-inside-the-2006-open-day-payrolls/

 

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

 

Good find. Just to pile on, while I am pleasantly surprised that the Twins decided not to cut payroll again as I expected, they currently stand at about the same payroll as last season, meaning that the $25M infusion of media money will go straight to the fiscal year bottom line- never to be seen again in productive use to improve the product.... or to early pay down of the stadium debt.... with a similar result.

 

As I have posted before, while they addressed a glaring and embarassing need, the rest of their "plan" for 2014 appears to be hosting the All Star game and marketing nostalgia, by signing and publicly pursuing past Twins from better times (Kubel, Bartlett, AJ, Garza, Santana), in the hopes of erasing TD threads like: "Worst Starting Lineup Ever?" or never-before-heard-of articles like this in the StarTribune just before last year's All Star Game: "Yankees turn Gardy's Twins into the worst team ever -- Really". Note to TR, just get better players, that, you know, you said would be possible to do with a new stadium.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

To me, signing Drew is a no-brainer. SS is just about the hardest position to upgrade and the pipeline of internal/development candidates is very thin. Getting a comparable upgrade via trade will have a material cost in prospects. Drew provides offensive improvement, solid enough defence, requires only a 2-3 year commitment and is available for the one thing the Twins have in abundance (cash).

[oldguy10]

The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple.

[jokin]

The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple, how many times do we have to go over that premise?

 

 

I think everyone agrees with your premise, in the upgrade by itself- in a vacuum. But nature, baseball players, agents and fans abhor a vacuum. And we aren't just talking about the 2014 standings. By signing Drew and upgrading the Rotation (all of which cost you nothing in terms of giving up talent or holding back prospects), you give further incentive for someone like Garza and other quality FAs to consider the Twins' offers more seriously as a viable franchise moving in the right direction longer-term.

 

Please recall the premise from the opposite viewpoint: incremental upgrades at a position player or two, a significant upgrade in the rotation, combined with positive regressions to the mean from selected players coming off down years, PLUS throw in a rookie, or two, or three getting called up and making an impact, can mean that you now have added enough Wins/Player for a team that can become at the least, a fringe contender. And if not 2014, you build the momentum toward even more quality upgrades going into 2015 to go along with the prospects coming online.

[brvama]

I don't want to rehash the Drew debate, but let's suppose Drew is signed. That's likely to come in at around $10 mln from what I have gathered. That still leaves another $15 mln available. If the goal is to invest in team personnel, again, who else should they be pursuing?

[brvama]

Certainly if Garza was the target, that would sure take care of the $15.

[jokin]

Certainly if Garza was the target, that would sure take care of the $15.

 

And that would still put you around/below the 50-52% threshold, and still leave the $25M media money available for current use. Plus, by signing Garza, Correia would almost certainly be traded reducing that cost by $5.5M, with Willingham, Burton and Suzuki, Plouffe likely coming off the books before 2015 (~$17M).

[Marta Shearing]

The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple.

Who cares? The money is there. They can spend it, or they can put it in their pockets. Do something. Throw us some crumbs. Give the fans something to get excited about. They owe us that for filling that ballpark for four years. I dont care if they overpay. I dont care if it only nets one more win. The money is there. They are under the 50-52%. Sign Drew. He's not a savior, but he's an upgrade.

[Marta Shearing]

I dont know why its so hard for so many people to understand. With the new ballpark and the new TV contract, the Twins are raking in money hand over fist. They can spend it, even if they have to overpay, or they can put it in their pockets. And no, this money isn't put in an account to be used when the team is competitive again. It's gone forever so Mr. Pohlad can take it with him when he dies.

[Brad Swanson]

I understand. However, isn't there at least a slight possibility that the Twins don't like any of the remaining free agent options? Or, isn't it possible that some of these free agents don't want to come here? Or both?

[Reider]

The Twins have already exceeded my expectations this off season, but that doesn't change the fact that I want to see the team win more games. I can't see them winning too many more games unless the offense gets better.

 

The Twins upgraded their starting rotation because they had to. The fact that they haven't been as aggressive on the offensive side tells me that a) they aren't all-in this year and / or they are once again over-estimating their offense and / or C) they are cheap and are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as they can.

 

The reality of the situation is the Twins have been cutting payroll / kicking the can down the road since the end of the 2010 season. I understand that the team is waiting for their young prospects to establish themselves in the MLB, which could take years. But I really hope they plan on building this team into a serious contender over the next couple / few years even if it means spending serious $. Who wants to watch a bunch of can kickers who aren't committed to winning?

[Brad Swanson]

Back to the original point about the offense, I'm not sure Mauer is the only above-average offensive player. Both Brian Dozier and Oswaldo Arcia posted an OPS+ of 100 or higher. Each is young and it's conceivable that they will improve. They may not, but the Twins have to hope they will. That takes first, second and one corner OF position off the wishlist.

 

Willingham should occupy the other corner OF if the Twins have any hope of trading him for assets and/or any hope of contending. Center is out, the Twins have Presley, Hicks and then Buxton, so there's no reason to sign a long-term option there. Catcher is covered with Suzuki and Pinto. That leaves third, short and DH. Sano should be ready soon, but his elbow injury is concerning. Plouffe is who he is. That said, the third base options are sucky, at the risk of using an overly fancy word.

 

That pretty much leaves DH and short. I'd be fine with sacrificing a draft pick for Morales and/or Drew in order to upgrade those positions. However, I don't think that passing on those players equals a bad off-season. Morales is a fine offensive player, but I'm not a big fan of paying good money for a DH. I've come around on Drew a lot, but I'm not sold he will be a great player if the Twins do land him.

 

Beyond those two, I don't see a lot of other options. Mark Reynolds? Justin Turner? Those guys will be pretty cheap and I'm not sure they are better options than those already on roster.

[glunn]

Moderator warning -- please be respectful to each other. You can make your points without being snide and combative.

[Guest USAFChief]

Back to the original point about the offense, I'm not sure Mauer is the only above-average offensive player. Both Brian Dozier and Oswaldo Arcia posted an OPS+ of 100 or higher. Each is young and it's conceivable that they will improve. They may not, but the Twins have to hope they will. That takes first, second and one corner OF position off the wishlist.

 

Willingham should occupy the other corner OF if the Twins have any hope of trading him for assets and/or any hope of contending. Center is out, the Twins have Presley, Hicks and then Buxton, so there's no reason to sign a long-term option there. Catcher is covered with Suzuki and Pinto. That leaves third, short and DH. Sano should be ready soon, but his elbow injury is concerning. Plouffe is who he is. That said, the third base options are sucky, at the risk of using an overly fancy word.

 

That pretty much leaves DH and short. I'd be fine with sacrificing a draft pick for Morales and/or Drew in order to upgrade those positions. However, I don't think that passing on those players equals a bad off-season. Morales is a fine offensive player, but I'm not a big fan of paying good money for a DH. I've come around on Drew a lot, but I'm not sold he will be a great player if the Twins do land him.

 

Beyond those two, I don't see a lot of other options. Mark Reynolds? Justin Turner? Those guys will be pretty cheap and I'm not sure they are better options than those already on roster.

I agree with all of this, but I'm more bullish on Drew and/or Morales. I don't think Drew will be "great" either, just considerably better than what they are likely to get from any internal option for a couple years at least. I also think that with the position players they should be able to add over the next couple seasons, putting a DH bat like Morales into the middle of the lineup makes sense, adding depth to the offense and perhaps taking some pressure off those young hitters when they do hit the lineup.

 

I would be more inclined to give the Twins a pass on this if there weren't reasonable, obtainable options out there that cost only money and a second/third round pick. The draft picks are a serious cost, but well worth it IMO, and the money required really shouldn't even give the Twins a second thought. They are spending a smaller percentage of revenue now than they were in the dome. I think it's entirely fair to ask why we as fans should accept a team worse than necessary, when reasonable upgrades are there for the taking.

[Oldgoat_MN]

This link shows players who will be free agents next year.

 

There are some SSs there and some really good SPs. I don't really want the Twins to sign someone to a multi-year deal just to tie up money for the next several years. I will not get hysterical if the Pohlads put some money in their pockets this year.

 

They've clearly lit a fire under TR. That is a great start.

If they need a SS and a top of the rotation SP next off-season I want them to be able to go get those guys.

 

At Fangraphs both Oliver and Steamer expect Drew's BABIP, ISO and defense to drop. Doesn't necessarily mean he would be a bad pickup, but I really think they will go with Eduardo Escobar and see what we can get out of him. Maybe go get a real SS next year if no one surprises us.

 

Yes, I see all the stats. Just me, but I believe Drew will drop off a lot in 2014.

[Alex]

This link shows players who will be free agents next year.

 

There are some SSs there and some really good SPs. I don't really want the Twins to sign someone to a multi-year deal just to tie up money for the next several years. I will not get hysterical if the Pohlads put some money in their pockets this year.

 

They've clearly lit a fire under TR. That is a great start.

If they need a SS and a top of the rotation SP next off-season I want them to be able to go get those guys.

 

At Fangraphs both Oliver and Steamer expect Drew's BABIP, ISO and defense to drop. Doesn't necessarily mean he would be a bad pickup, but I really think they will go with Eduardo Escobar and see what we can get out of him. Maybe go get a real SS next year if no one surprises us.

 

Yes, I see all the stats. Just me, but I believe Drew will drop off a lot in 2014.

 

Yes, but that list shortens up, sometimes dramatically as teams re-sign their own players. It's a bad idea, IMO, to try to project out more than a season. It' also worth noting if the Twins are significantly better, they might not have 1st round protection for that class of FA.

[jokin]

Back to the original point about the offense, I'm not sure Mauer is the only above-average offensive player. Both Brian Dozier and Oswaldo Arcia posted an OPS+ of 100 or higher. Each is young and it's conceivable that they will improve. They may not, but the Twins have to hope they will. That takes first, second and one corner OF position off the wishlist.

 

Willingham should occupy the other corner OF if the Twins have any hope of trading him for assets and/or any hope of contending. Center is out, the Twins have Presley, Hicks and then Buxton, so there's no reason to sign a long-term option there.

 

Catcher is covered with Suzuki and Pinto.

 

That leaves third, short and DH. Sano should be ready soon, but his elbow injury is concerning. Plouffe is who he is. That said, the third base options are sucky, at the risk of using an overly fancy word.

 

That pretty much leaves DH and short. I'd be fine with sacrificing a draft pick for Morales and/or Drew in order to upgrade those positions. However, I don't think that passing on those players equals a bad off-season. Morales is a fine offensive player, but I'm not a big fan of paying good money for a DH. I've come around on Drew a lot, but I'm not sold he will be a great player if the Twins do land him.

 

Beyond those two, I don't see a lot of other options. Mark Reynolds? Justin Turner? Those guys will be pretty cheap and I'm not sure they are better options than those already on roster.

 

Good post, with the exception of your catcher summation. Catcher may be "covered", but it's a huge downgrade from last year. And, presumably because of his defense, Twins management seems less than enamored with going with Pinto to start out the season- hardly a day goes by than Eric Fryer is celebrated by the front office as the second coming of Drew Butera. If Wieters or Castro are shopped, I hope the Twins at least answer the phone.

 

Regarding Morales and Drew, they becomes prime trade bait for a contender without having to forfeit a draft pick- so that mitigates the downside risk even more for the Twins- and as discussed, they block no one for the immediate future. Admittedly, both have their weaknesses and drawbacks, but come on, both would be a HUGE upgrade over what the Twins project to put in their places this season and for the immediate future. And as Marta so eloquently stated, we need to have some crumbs thrown our way, rather than merely using those crumbs to pay down part of the nut on TF.

 

Michael Young is out there as an alternative bat, no doubt hoping to get snapped up by a contender. The Twins should at least consider him as the clock ticks towards Spring Training- might end up being a bargain pick-up.

[jokin]

The crickets are chirping a little louder this evening, offering small rays of upgrade hope:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/free-agent-notes-tanaka-santana-reynolds-baker-guerrier.html

 

1) Twins have requested medicals on Ervin Santana.

2) Twins are cited as 1 0f 5 teams "to be in on" Mark Reynolds.

 

And saving the best for last, the 2014 Reunion Tour might get somewhat head-scratchingly even bigger...

 

3) Dougie reports that Matt Guerrier begins throwing off a mound on Friday and that the Twins are "interested in potentially bringing him back."

 

4) Scott Baker's name is also broached in the article, but I think the Twins may have permanently burned that bridge.

[johnnydakota]

Well, it's certainly exceeded my expectations. I went on record as saying I didn't think payroll would exceed 80M and it has. I set the over-under on free agent pitching salaries for next year at $12M and they have spend $24M. Maybe my expectations were low, but they've exceeded them.

 

I'd still applaud signing Stephen Drew or one of the top flight (better than Arroyo) pitchers, but I'm a lot more optimistic about this team than I was 3 months ago either way.

 

So after pocketing over 100 million in profits over the last 3 years, you believe it is ok for ownership and the front office to once again not spend there 50-54% which this year would put the teams payroll at around 127.5 million? After 3 straight 95+losses seasons ,the team should take a wait and see attitude? As for signing Drew, I would much rather see Terry W Ryan sign Diaz and have a young guy grow up with the team , then have an often hurt average defender who costs us the 45th pick...Just saying

[jokin]

So after pocketing over 100 million in profits over the last 3 years, you believe it is ok for ownership and the front office to once again not spend there 50-54% which this year would put the teams payroll at around 127.5 million? After 3 straight 95+losses seasons ,the team should take a wait and see attitude? As for signing Drew, I would much rather see Terry W Ryan sign Diaz and have a young guy grow up with the team , then have an often hurt average defender who costs us the 45th pick...Just saying

 

I would vote Diaz as the first option, as well. But first having him become available is so sketchy, his reviews are mixed, and maybe some of the others who aren't bidding on Drew are keeping their powder dry for a shot at Diaz? Just thinking out loud here.

[johnnydakota]

I would vote Diaz as the first option, as well. But first having him become available is so sketchy, his reviews are mixed, and maybe some of the others who aren't bidding on Drew are keeping their powder dry for a shot at Diaz? Just thinking out loud here.

 

Apperently the Twins are still in on him , so they must think he is a quality player, So really all it would take would be money , and they still have a buttload left to spend this year, so if it was me , Id not only sign Diaz,but look long and hard at Bello the catcher as well

[Otwins]

This is where the front office has to define the teams goals. If you think that the team is close to contending and you just want an upgrade over Pedro Florimon then Drew is that. I just hope we get a shortstop better than Drew by the time the rest of the team is ready to contend. Drew hit .222 on the road. His numbers left handed were very good at Fenway Park. Paying for that and bringing him to Target Field will not work out that well. I would keep buying pitching. Tanaka not coming but the next three are possible targets.

 

I like the idea about contacting the Dodgers about an outfielder but Crawford not Kemp. He is a good fielder who would add much needed speed at the top of the lineup. Dodgers would have to eat a large portion of Crawford's contract but that is not a problem for them. I agree with a previous poster who said Kemp's price will be too high.

[jay]

I would like to add that the Twins could take on salary via trade as well.

 

Given the lack of great fits left on the free agent market, I certainly wouldn't rule this out. Trader Terry has pulled trades out of his hat before. Remember how surprised we were to see 2 CFs moved last year?

 

The Twins far and away exceeded my expectations this offseason. Even though I'd love more, it wouldn't be fair to let that cloud my satisfaction. Those preaching patience are on point, IMHO.

 

Drew would be okay and is really the only halfway decent FA fit left, but not signing him won't change how great this offseason was particularly considering there's no less than 5 shortstops that are likely to be available next year that could very well be better choices. Cruz and Morales are terrible in the field and can hit some, but really don't solve much outside of the need for some to spend more money. The only other FA move I can see making any sense is another SP upgrade and dealing away Correia.

[jokin]

This is where the front office has to define the teams goals. If you think that the team is close to contending and you just want an upgrade over Pedro Florimon then Drew is that. I just hope we get a shortstop better than Drew by the time the rest of the team is ready to contend. Drew hit .222 on the road. His numbers left handed were very good at Fenway Park. Paying for that and bringing him to Target Field will not work out that well. I would keep buying pitching. Tanaka not coming but the next three are possible targets.

 

I like the idea about contacting the Dodgers about an outfielder but Crawford not Kemp. He is a good fielder who would add much needed speed at the top of the lineup. Dodgers would have to eat a large portion of Crawford's contract but that is not a problem for them. I agree with a previous poster who said Kemp's price will be too high.

 

Drew's sterling 2013 OPS+ of 111 adjusts for his ballpark. And, in addition, he has a history of being not only a great left-handed hitter against RHP in general, but also, always a better hitter at home (.803 OPS) than on the road (.725), not just last year at Fenway.

 

Finally, Drew's a guy that gets sronger at the plate as the season progresses, his 2 best months are the last months of the season (corroborated in 2013)....career August .815 OPS/113 OPS+... and career September .822 OPS/114 OPS+ ... just the kind of guy you want in the middle of your infield during a pennant chase.

 

Let's get another pitcher from the top 3 FAs and a Major League SS.

 

We all hope that a better SS is available just down the road, but why wait and hope for that to happen?...... the Twins have never demonstrated the ability or desire to develop or keep a SS above the level of Little Nicky. The chances of getting the Cuban, Diaz, who many say projects to 2nd base anyway, are very slim, what wth the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers said to be all over him.

 

Drew may very well be available for likely on a 2 or 3 year deal, and even acknowledging that he's not the perfect answer, just what is the opportunity cost in acquiring him?

*The money is available and doesn't inhibit other signings,

*no prospect is being blocked,

*and provided he stays reasonably healthy, Drew is readily tradeable during the life of the contract should another SS opportunity emerge.

[Reider]

If the Twins can't make a trade for JJ Hardy, they could offer him a contract next off season (if he chooses to become a free agent).

[jokin]

Given the lack of great fits left on the free agent market, I certainly wouldn't rule this out. Trader Terry has pulled trades out of his hat before. Remember how surprised we were to see 2 CFs moved last year?

 

The Twins far and away exceeded my expectations this offseason. Even though I'd love more, it wouldn't be fair to let that cloud my satisfaction. Those preaching patience are on point, IMHO.

 

Drew would be okay and is really the only halfway decent FA fit left, but not signing him won't change how great this offseason was particularly considering there's no less than 5 shortstops that are likely to be available next year that could very well be better choices. Cruz and Morales are terrible in the field and can hit some, but really don't solve much outside of the need for some to spend more money. The only other FA move I can see making any sense is another SP upgrade and dealing away Correia.

 

As has been pointed out, if any of the 5 SS are available, they may cost a 1st Round Pick given that the Twins are likely to improve incrementally. I'm not sure if that is worth waiting for a chance to get Yunel Escobar or not (seems like the best fit for the Twins)- I would bet that the Rays will exercise their 2015 option on him. The rest are either unaffordable (Ramirez), poor with the glove (Lowrie), have an option pending (Nakajima), overrated (Cabrera) or long in the tooth (many others).

 

outside of the need for some to spend more money.

 

How about the need to move out of the bottom quintile on offense?

[North Dakota Twins Fan]

I think we sign at least one more. Might not be a big name. Maybe Korean Pitcher Suk-Min Yoon who the Twins have been linked too.(Not Garza I know) Overall, I'm happy with the moves we have made. The market has stalled with everyone waiting on Masahiro Tanaka.