This years Revere/Span trade...

[nicksaviking]

I don't think trading a 2B for a SS is going to ever happen. Teams with excess SS generally move one of them to 2B after all.

[Mike Sixel]

Ah, concentrate on one part, and ignore the rest....ok, trade him for pitching then. that was not really the point of the post at all.....

[kab21]

Ah, concentrate on one part, and ignore the rest....ok, trade him for pitching then. that was not really the point of the post at all.....

 

That's true but this team also doesn't have a SS and there is only Polanco in the minors that looks like he could be average or better. The Twins definitely need pitching but it doesn't make sense to open holes elsewhere that are hard to fill.

 

The other BIG problem I have with this argument is that Dozier is probably bringing back a Worley type instead of a high potential arm. Maybe in another year when Dozier has more than 2/3's of a season of good baseball on his big league resume but right now GM's will be lukewarm to him (rightly so).

[Mike Sixel]

I did mention it is a risk, and it is based on betting that Rosario is ready half way through next year, right?

 

don't take the risk then....but be prepared for another awful season next year.

[kab21]

I did mention it is a risk, and it is based on betting that Rosario is ready half way through next year, right?

 

don't take the risk then....but be prepared for another awful season next year.

 

It has nothing to do if rosario is ready half way thru next season. dozier should be given every opportunity to fill the SS hole. That is a really difficult position to fill internally or externally.

 

getting another Worley level pitcher back does not considerably change the Twins fortunes next season. Especially since you are making a weak offense even worse. I understand that the Twins have some great hitting prospects in the minors and the starting pitching is beyond awful but the Twins also have a terrible offense (25th in the majors).

[Mike Sixel]

I did not get you were arguing for Dozier to try SS, I'm good with that plan.....

 

And yes, that offense was terrible last year, it is being under rated as one of the problems, imo.

[gunnarthor]

Looking at this year's postseason, makes me think about what type of pitchers the Twins need to be targeting. Whether its the Tigers, RedSox, Dodgers or Cards, all of these rotations have numerous guys that can miss bats. If the pitchers we do not acquire cant miss bats, I don't want them! This organization has been down this road far too many times and it has failed. Our best two pitchers in the last decade have been Santana and Liriano. Both guys missed bats. Invest in high upside arms, knowing that many of them will flame out. But to still be playing in October, these types of arms need to be throughout the organization. No trading Dozier for Diamond 2.0!

 

Actually, our best starting pitchers over the last decade or so have been Santana, Radke, Milton and Baker. You could also argue that Silva or Mays were just as effective as Liriano.

 

Liriano 7 seasons 50-52 4.33 era 98 ERA+, 783.1ip 9.8 WAR

Silva 4 seasons 47-45 4.42 era 102 ERA+, 773.2ip 9.0 WAR

Mays 6 seasons 48-65 4.85 era, 94 ERA+, 946ip 10.5 WAR

[Major League Ready]

Trading Dozier makes no sense to me. What happened to all of the talk about not selling low? He is not going to bring a front of the rotation pitcher now Why take on risk. These types of moves are desperate. The last thing we need to do know is panic and take on risks so that we can be mediocre next year at the expense of future years.

 

Get Rosario up here at find out of he has a ML bat. He can play in the outfied will that is being determined and we can give him some playing time at 2B. That approach at least allows us the opportunity to benefit from the best case scenario. That being Dozier plays they way he did for the last two-thirds of 2013 and Rosario demonstrates he can be a great player in this league. That would signiifcantly improve the return that would be gained if Dozier or Rosario were traded. We could also see if Rosario can play 2B and at the same time experiment with moving Dozier back to SS. Making these decisions to early just increases the odds you get it wrong.

[DJL44]

Get Rosario up here at find out of he has a ML bat. He can play in the outfied will that is being determined and we can give him some playing time at 2B. That approach at least allows us the opportunity to benefit from the best case scenario. That being Dozier plays they way he did for the last two-thirds of 2013 and Rosario demonstrates he can be a great player in this league. That would signiifcantly improve the return that would be gained if Dozier or Rosario were traded.

 

That lowers the risk to the ballclub but I don't see how it improves the return. The return is based on what another team is willing to pay, not what the Twins have on their roster for talent. If a team is convinced that Brian Dozier can be their long-term answer at 2B they will find him more desirable now when they get him for a longer period of time.

[Mike Sixel]

Making the decision after a guy is bad, also makes the return lower....that's why any of these decisions carries some degree of risk.

 

We do not know if teams think of Dozier as legit right now or not, yet people keep saying that it is clear that we somehow know what teams think...we have no idea what any team thinks about Brian Dozier. We do not know what Dozier could return in a trade.

 

We do know that the Twins have a top minor league prospect at the position Dozier plays. We do know they have an insufficient number of SS, OF, and SP (and DH/1B). We also know they have few assets to trade right now. You can choose to keep Dozier, but that does not necessarily decrease the risk at all.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, I don't think Dozier is all that valuable right now. Yes, he was a very very good 2B the second half of the season, but teams are going to want to see that repeated for a full 2014 before they are willing to trade a top 100 prospect for him, and I don't blame them.

 

As for the big trade this year, if Ryan trades anything for something of value, it will be relief pitchers. I fully expect one of Perkins, Fein, or Burton to not be wearing a Twins cap after winter meetings.

[howeda7]

Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.

 

+1. IIRC, it seemed like the talk was that Rosario may end up as a corner OF'er? In any case, if the value is similar, I'd rather keep the sure thing this time.

[ND-Fan]

Here's a thought Twins should maybe trade Mauer at 30 for pitching my reason is he at peak of value as a player and Twins are several years away from competing again. By the time Twins are competing Mauer will be in decline and will be 33 year old player. The Twins could stock pile some good arms for the future. Lets face it I think Twins are at least 3 years away from competing the kids coming are going need time in majors. Pittsburg kids have taken at least three years to learn how compete and win at major league level. Were one to two years away before all these kids reach major league level. Unless Twins are ready to sign free agents now I think Twins will just waste Mauers value playing on non contending teams.

[Oxtung]

...there is very little hope for a starting SS coming up through the farm system for 2-3 years.

 

I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right?

 

Here's a thought Twins should maybe trade Mauer...

 

I advocated for that last offseason when it became obvious they weren't going to try and upgrade the roster, but that ship has sailed. I find it incredibly unlikely that any GM would be willing to take on his contract and return significant prospects (which would be required to justify it to the fans) for a catcher that is coming off of a serious brain injury. He could return to all-star catcher form, need to move to 1B or his career could be ended. There is no way to know right now. There is also the small problem of his full no-trade protection.

 

As for the big trade this year, if Ryan trades anything for something of value, it will be relief pitchers. I fully expect one of Perkins, Fein, or Burton to not be wearing a Twins cap after winter meetings.

 

While Perkins might have some value and could potentially return a nice prospect or two, Fien and Burton will have next to none. They didn't end the season particularly well, their overall stat lines are mediocre, and relievers are available to be signed every off season that don't require giving up prospects to acquire.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Making the decision after a guy is bad, also makes the return lower....that's why any of these decisions carries some degree of risk.

 

We do not know if teams think of Dozier as legit right now or not, yet people keep saying that it is clear that we somehow know what teams think...we have no idea what any team thinks about Brian Dozier. We do not know what Dozier could return in a trade.

 

We do know that the Twins have a top minor league prospect at the position Dozier plays. We do know they have an insufficient number of SS, OF, and SP (and DH/1B). We also know they have few assets to trade right now. You can choose to keep Dozier, but that does not necessarily decrease the risk at all.

 

It's possible that some team out there views Dozier as 100% legit... But it's unlikely.

 

GMs aren't mentally impaired (well, most of them, anyway). If you watch a player all season and still have doubts about the guy, chances are so will everyone else in the league. It's not going out on much of a limb to say that Rosario's value is considerably higher than Dozier right now. The current state of MLB is prospect-crazy and Dozier has been an up-and-down prospect, he's 26 years old, and is coming off a breakout season that surprised nearly everyone.

 

That doesn't mean you don't listen to offers about Dozier should someone approach you but it's extremely unlikely that anyone will offer real value for him at this point.

[Guest USAFChief]

Keep in mind also that Dozier ended 2013 with a .244/.312/.414 line. It looked a lot better to us because he had a better second half, because of the lineup he was in and because we're so starved for any good news.

 

But ultimately, an outsider is going to look at that and not be as impressed.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

 

Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.

He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

 

And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.

Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.

Nor Buxton.

[Mike Sixel]

I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

 

Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.

He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

 

And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.

Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.

Nor Buxton.

 

 

that was a depressing end to your post......If Sano isn't up next year, I have no idea why anyone would go to a game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

 

Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.

He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

 

And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.

Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.

Nor Buxton.

 

.742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

 

And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, I'm not saying Dozier would return anything, I'm only saying that I don't think we can state that he won't with such certainty that appears to be commonplace here.

 

I'd rather somehow he work out and that Rosario work out.....and they somehow also find pitching, but I struggle to see how that happens if they don't deal one of them, if they can.

[Siehbiscuit]

This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

 

If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm all for trading Perkins, he throws 40-50 innings a year (or whatever), and his value to a bad team is low, super low. There has to be a GM out there that over values closers that would give up a legit player/prospect for him.

[nicksaviking]

.742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

 

And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

 

As I see it, the only way Sano doesn't come up is if he is under-performing AND the Twins by some miracle are in the playoff hunt. He'll get the call at some point next year if for no other reason than to get the fans talking about something other than the poor product on the field. That and Trevor Plouffe will surely find himself in the doghouse at some point again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 29 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

 

Dozier will be 27 next season so he still has a little upside but yeah, most of this post is spot-on.

 

If Dozier posts another good season in 2014, then most will view him as a solid complementary player (much like Span). But not yet.

[GCTF]

I'm all for trading Perkins, he throws 40-50 innings a year (or whatever), and his value to a bad team is low, super low. There has to be a GM out there that over values closers that would give up a legit player/prospect for him.

 

Did Bill Smith find another job?

[Siehbiscuit]

This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

 

If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

[gunnarthor]

This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

 

If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

 

The Span thing isn't quite true either, though. Over his last 3 seasons with us, Span was a .334 OBP (and 94 OPS+) and avg less than 2 WAR/season. Obviously, the Nats hoped that injuries were the main cause of that. But sometimes teams make trades based on what they hope to see, not what they see.

 

But I agree that Perkins has the potential to bring back a difference making pitcher. I'd listen on Dozier and probably take a May/Worley type deal but not a Sean Gilmartin deal. And if other teams don't want to give that up, let him play second again. That's not a bad outcome for us either.

[Mike Sixel]

.............

[Oldgoat_MN]

.742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

 

Not trying to say it was awful. Certainly not what Sano or Buxton did when they advanced, But few do such things. Eddie will need to start in AA and show he can hit well at that level before moving on.

 

.And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

 

Man, I hope you're right.

[kab21]

I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right?

 

 

He's a better version of Florimon. Santana has poor plate discipline and I typically subtract off at least 50 pts of OPS of typical minor leaguers (unless very young or have scouting reports suggesting more potential). So I'm hoping that Santana hits for a .650 OPS and that's the kind of guy that you don't really want as a starting but can fill the position until something better is found.