26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[jorgenswest]

It seems I can be convinced by every argument. I would have been excited for his signing. Shortstop is a definite need and very difficult to find. On the other nand, secondbasemen are not great trade pieces unless they are very good for multiple years. I am not sure any of the three will ever qualify as a good trade piece.

 

It is worth a risk at shortstop. The cost of Nishioka was 11.32 million at a time when Twin revenues were at a peak. Wouldn't the Guerrero risk be much more?

 

It comes down to assessment of his ability to play shortstop.

[jay]

It's not really possible to make an argument that the Twins couldn't spend the money. However, I don't personally think this would be the best way to spend it. We know TR is exceptionally risk adverse to start with, so I find it a bit surprising they were in on this guy down to the last 2 clubs and, even though they didn't sign him, I'd still call it a positive sign based on all the reports saying he was willing to open the bank.

 

This 'prospect' hasn't played in 2 years, won't stick at SS, and is older than Chris Parmelee by well over a full year. Looking at recent FA deals in the same price range, I'd take 3 years of Cuddyer or Aramis Ramirez over signing this guy in a heartbeat.

[old nurse]

Counterattack? Is it so crazy to want the people who are complaining about not signing a guy to use factual information to why they want the Twins to sign a player a counterattack? I just want to hear from someone who actually likes Guerrero. I just don't see what there is to be upset about.

 

About the best Cuban player comparison I could find was Ramirez with the White Sox. They are about the same age. Rameriz looks like he he did not spend time in the minors. Took a couple years to adjust, had two great years, and to better than average years. I don't think Ramirez spent time away from the game. There have other younger shortstops come over and had to spend some time in the minors. Ramirez for 2012 signed a 4/32 deal.

So, if you think you have another Ramirez, you have a great deal. If Guerrero turns into Chip Hale, you went bust. The Twins could have given him a similar dollar contract with the money mostly bonus so it came off this year's budget. I don't think the Twins operate that way. For a 30 mil contract you get 2-3 years of the 7-10 best free agent. That would be a little safer method. They could have done both,(sign a Cuban and a free agent) they could do both twice. Have to wait and see what happens.

People are upset because they hope that this guy could be a Puig/Cespedes kind of bat. They might not think it could turn into Urrutia's bat and position.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think it the general concern that the Twins aren't making a play in a market, that's becoming a pipeline for other teams.

+1. I think it's even wider than that though.

 

Speaking only for myself, it's a combination of a sour attitude from 3 dismal seasons, combined with what I perceive as a lack of any sense of urgency to do something about it. Maybe this guy made sense, maybe he didn't, but it gives the impression of just another data point in a long string of, um, empty data points.

[ashbury]

and it basically says "no arguing / disagreeing, ever".

 

After being asked to review this thread and spending an hour or so looking at the back-and-forth, this option is looking sweeter and sweeter to me.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I still don't understand why people think we shouldn't sign him. Did signing Nishi hurt the Twins (other than the fact they let Hardy go)?

 

1) If he works out at SS, awesome.

2) If he works out a 2B, awesome now you've got a trade piece.

3) If he fails the Twins are out a few million dollars they won't be spending anyways.

 

Where is the downside here?

 

Why does everyone on here treat baseball salaries like Monopoly money? Are they all super rich enough that "being out a few million dollars" is such a cavalier thing to them? I don't care if your budget is 50,000 a year or 200 million, "a few million" is still a ridiculous amount of money. I won't see north of 5 million in my entire earning career and some/most of you won't either.

[Alex]

Why does everyone on here treat baseball salaries like Monopoly money? Are they all super rich enough that "being out a few million dollars" is such a cavalier thing to them? I don't care if your budget is 50,000 a year or 200 million, "a few million" is still a ridiculous amount of money. I won't see north of 5 million in my entire earning career and some/most of you won't either.

 

If you take this stance it's easy to justify any time the Twins don't spend money. It justifies their horrible on field product after getting a town to help build a beautiful stadium for them based on reasons that don't appear true.

 

I, like some others, aren't broken up over this particular non signing, but the pattern is getting old.

[Badsmerf]

Why does everyone on here treat baseball salaries like Monopoly money? Are they all super rich enough that "being out a few million dollars" is such a cavalier thing to them? I don't care if your budget is 50,000 a year or 200 million, "a few million" is still a ridiculous amount of money. I won't see north of 5 million in my entire earning career and some/most of you won't either.

 

The Twins could probably just use minor league and rule V guys from here on out. That would save some money in payroll. Heck, why do we even care how talented this team is, lets just try to be the most frugal team in baseball! Once that albatross Mauer contract is over we can really strip the fat.

 

Had to do it. In order to acquire talent sometimes you have to take risks. A couple million is a risk the Twins are completely able to take and should be taking. That isn't going to sink the ship. Especially with the amount of very good cheap talent coming up. They money needs to be put somewhere to help this team. Not spending it is simply just ignoring a major part of this game.

[TheLeviathan]

I still don't understand why people think we shouldn't sign him. Did signing Nishi hurt the Twins (other than the fact they let Hardy go)?

 

1) If he works out at SS, awesome.

2) If he works out a 2B, awesome now you've got a trade piece.

3) If he fails the Twins are out a few million dollars they won't be spending anyways.

 

Where is the downside here?

 

Pretty much this. At some point the buck stops and we need to actually do something. Not just talk about it. International free agency is the perfect place to spend money on younger players that often have less total dollar figures attached to them. They come with a lot of risk for sure, but we've gotta get over that as an organization.

 

I'd argue there is no single factor greater to blame for this team's struggles than playing it too safe in every aspect of how this team acquires talent.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Why does everyone on here treat baseball salaries like Monopoly money? Are they all super rich enough that "being out a few million dollars" is such a cavalier thing to them? I don't care if your budget is 50,000 a year or 200 million, "a few million" is still a ridiculous amount of money. I won't see north of 5 million in my entire earning career and some/most of you won't either.

 

Yeah this. Based on the scouting reports, I don't see this signing being a good one. He's not going to end up at a position of need, and I'm not sure you can easily trade a .750 OPS second baseman whose making 5M/year.

 

What I get concerned about is that there are a couple of big name FAs out there that do fit nicely into positions of need (Abreau and Tanaka), and I suspect the price tag on them will price us out of the market. I'm not a fan of throwing money at guys just to spend it, but there does come a point where it's worth taking the risk. I haven't evaluated either of these guys, but based on what Abreau did in Cuba (better than Puig I might add), I'd say he's a worth while get. Based on what Tanka did in Japan (better than Darvish too), I'd say he's worth it as well. Unfortunately, I have little confidence that either will be in a Twins uniform come April, despite the fact that both have the potential to be impact players at positions of need for the next wave. That, to me, can be the difference between a ring and an early exit... or making the playoffs vs. not making them.

[nicksaviking]

After being asked to review this thread and spending an hour or so looking at the back-and-forth, this option is looking sweeter and sweeter to me.

 

An hour? Boy, I hate to bring this up but I have a website for you:

 

https://www.hookedonphonics.com/

 

[PseudoSABR]

I think it the general concern that the Twins aren't making a play in a market, that's becoming a pipeline for other teams. The Twins were late to the party in the DR, and there late getting back into Cuba. It's nice their dipping their toes in the pool, but they haven't taken a legit dive yet, and when many Cuban prospect are considered more advanced they line up nicely with the core prospects coming up. I understand protecting draft picks, playing under a budget, and not trading under distress, but this is an area they need to take a chance on a put a legit bid in, rather then simply window shop.

I don't disagree. But Guerrero just may not have been the best play. I think many would like the acquisition simply because it would show that the Twins are willing to spend to money and take risks, rather than because it was smart, prudent move to make. Let's hope the go out and actually get Tanaka.

[old nurse]

Tanaka will probably get the same posting fee as Darvish did. 50 million. The club would have leverage as Texas did so a 6/60 contract would be somewhat close for a guess at a contract. That is a lot of money. First the 50 or even 60 million posting fee. In reality that is cheap. To get a pitcher in their prime like him you either have to be lucky in the draft or trade for one. To trade for one you would have to probably give up a Buxton or a Sano. To replace their potential production with a FA you are not going to be able to do that for 60 million. A 6/60 contract is cheap if he is a 3+ WAR pitcher. All he has to be is similar to Buehrle to do that over the life of the contract. Again, that would be a bargain

[howieramone1406390264]

Yeah this. Based on the scouting reports, I don't see this signing being a good one. He's not going to end up at a position of need, and I'm not sure you can easily trade a .750 OPS second baseman whose making 5M/year.

 

What I get concerned about is that there are a couple of big name FAs out there that do fit nicely into positions of need (Abreau and Tanaka), and I suspect the price tag on them will price us out of the market. I'm not a fan of throwing money at guys just to spend it, but there does come a point where it's worth taking the risk. I haven't evaluated either of these guys, but based on what Abreau did in Cuba (better than Puig I might add), I'd say he's a worth while get. Based on what Tanka did in Japan (better than Darvish too), I'd say he's worth it as well. Unfortunately, I have little confidence that either will be in a Twins uniform come April, despite the fact that both have the potential to be impact players at positions of need for the next wave. That, to me, can be the difference between a ring and an early exit... or making the playoffs vs. not making them.

 

As I understand it the Twins won't be making a run at Abreau. Tanaka, unlike Guerrero, fits a need, unfortunately it's the same need as most teams. Texas has bowed out, all the other big spenders are seemingly still in. It appears the Twins are going to take a shot, if our scouts return with good reports from Japan. I certainly hope we get him, but it won't be the end of the world if we don't.

[Mike Sixel]

It won't be the end of the world if the Twins fold, and Target field closes.....but for the Twins to be successful, signing Tanaka seems like a good idea, probably better than any FA SP option.

[ThePuck]

It won't be the end of the world if the Twins fold, and Target field closes.....but for the Twins to be successful, signing Tanaka seems like a good idea, probably better than any FA SP option.

 

If one tries hard enough, there's always a way to find some rationale/justification/excuse for not signing someone. The perfect FA doesn't exist..and the closest ones, well they are just too darn expensive...

[howieramone1406390264]

It won't be the end of the world if the Twins fold, and Target field closes.....but for the Twins to be successful, signing Tanaka seems like a good idea, probably better than any FA SP option.

 

The Twins are going to be successful whether they sign Tanaka or not, that was decided when Houston passed on Buxton. I'm sorry, I'm just not the type who easily panics.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are going to be successful whether they sign Tanaka or not, that was decided when Houston passed on Buxton. I'm sorry, I'm just not the type who easily panics.

 

Ernie Banks played on mostly terrible, terrible teams. As did Tony Gwynn, as did Walter Johnson. Byron Buxton won't make the Twins a contender on his own and expecting all the prospects to pan out is exactly how a team becomes the Pittsburgh Pirates the previous two decades.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I find it amusing that people are talking Tanaka like he's going to be cheaper than Abreau. Abreau is looking at 75M. Tanaka is going to be 5 or 6 for 50ish plus a posting fee that's going to be about the same. I wouldn't mind it if the Twins took their savings from this year and next and applied that to the posting fee, but as I said, I'm somewhat skeptical they will. The Twins have identified next wave needs right now at both of those positions. If they are high on either guy, they really need to go all out and get him.

[ThePuck]

Ernie Banks played on mostly terrible, terrible teams. As did Tony Gwynn, as did Walter Johnson. Byron Buxton won't make the Twins a contender on his own and expecting all the prospects to pan out is exactly how a team becomes the Pittsburgh Pirates the previous two decades.

 

I posted an article about the percentage of top 100 prospects pan out to show exactly that...and people still think all of our top guys will pan out and we're on our way to being strong contenders. It's just so unrealistic to believe that and to justify not spending because of it. The Royals and Pirates, after all those years of having very good farm systems and high drafts picks, are FINALLY seeing results...but talk about extremely long journeys and loads of prospects that just didn't work out.

[Oxtung]

For those of you who continuously back the FO, how many times must the Twins pass on adding talent to this squad before it becomes a problem?

[howieramone1406390264]

I find it amusing that people are talking Tanaka like he's going to be cheaper than Abreau. Abreau is looking at 75M. Tanaka is going to be 5 or 6 for 50ish plus a posting fee that's going to be about the same. I wouldn't mind it if the Twins took their savings from this year and next and applied that to the posting fee, but as I said, I'm somewhat skeptical they will. The Twins have identified next wave needs right now at both of those positions. If they are high on either guy, they really need to go all out and get him.

 

Texas posted 52M to get Darvish. The Yankees had the 2nd highest bid at 15M. What's the magical number for Tanaka? I'm not saying we don't have the money, because we do if he passes close inspection. What is the magical number, because we only get one shot. At minimum the Yankees and Red Sox will be returning all their pop bottles to build their war chest.

[Alex]

The Twins are going to be successful whether they sign Tanaka or not, that was decided when Houston passed on Buxton. I'm sorry, I'm just not the type who easily panics.

 

Single players don't make baseball teams, especially when we're talking about guys that haven't played above high-A. Having one of the three best hitting catchers of all time has not helped the Twins avoid three very awful seasons.

[howieramone1406390264]

For those of you who continuously back the FO, how many times must the Twins pass on adding talent to this squad before it becomes a problem?

 

It's a problem if the parade doesn't start in 2015, and to borrow a line from Chief, if we don't have the last draft pick in the first round of the 2018 draft.

[jay]

TR can't really let payroll sit at $50M next year, can he? The only way it'll hit 60-70, preferably more like 80-90+ is some major acquisitions through trade, free agency, or the int'l market.

 

It seems like no one here really wanted this guy, yet the opportunity to fuss is too easy to pass up? We know the Twins were in the hunt on this guy, so I don't understand posts about how they are passing up this market. On sheer average alone, we wouldn't sign >96% of the free agents... yet every single one (including one that no one admits to really wanting to sign) is another spasm of vitriol?

 

Some points here are valid and I can fully understand criticism where due. Heck, you'll see me upset when Phil Hughes goes elsewhere (unless other moves preempt it), but it's exactly this kind of stuff that gets rational people painted into a corner as "front-office defenders".

[Mike Sixel]

jay, that's a very rational post.....thx.

 

 

One point I'd make:

I don't think we really know they were in the hunt, since we are not to believe the GM when he speaks publicly, and we are not to believe the media when they print/speak about what they are hearing, we really have no idea if they were in on this guy or not.

 

Ok, one more point:

It is certainly possible that they decided he was not better than Floriman (ouch), but then why "leak" that they were in on the guy? That just sets up fans to be disappointed when they don't, again, actually sign the guy.

[TheLeviathan]

Ernie Banks played on mostly terrible, terrible teams. As did Tony Gwynn, as did Walter Johnson. Byron Buxton won't make the Twins a contender on his own and expecting all the prospects to pan out is exactly how a team becomes the Pittsburgh Pirates the previous two decades.

 

The biggest source of my frustration personally is the growing fear that we will be surrounding some truly epic talents with some utterly replaceable garbage despite ample money to do otherwise.

 

it may not be fair to be pissed at each one individually, but to borrow from Chief, each empty data point compounds that fear and, by extension, the frustration.

[PseudoSABR]

TR can't really let payroll sit at $50M next year, can he? The only way it'll hit 60-70, preferably more like 80-90+ is some major acquisitions through trade, free agency, or the int'l market.

 

It seems like no one here really wanted this guy, yet the opportunity to fuss is too easy to pass up? We know the Twins were in the hunt on this guy, so I don't understand posts about how they are passing up this market. On sheer average alone, we wouldn't sign >96% of the free agents... yet every single one (including one that no one admits to really wanting to sign) is another spasm of vitriol?

 

Some points here are valid and I can fully understand criticism where due. Heck, you'll see me upset when Phil Hughes goes elsewhere (unless other moves preempt it), but it's exactly this kind of stuff that gets rational people painted into a corner as "front-office defenders".

Great points, bud.

[LaBombo]

TR can't really let payroll sit at $50M next year, can he?

The Twins pocketed over $25 million of projected payroll this year, and burned $5 million more off the field on the predictably disasterous Nick Blackburn contract.

 

So my question is this: If the Twins put over $30 million in payroll somewhere other than on the field, why can't they do it with 50?

 

Put another way, when was the last time the Twins signed even a mid-tier free agent to a mulit-year deal, who wasn't a replacement for a similar player (eg Willingham for Cuddy) that was lost to free agency? And in case you were wondering, no, Kevin Correia doesn't count.

 

The problem isn't that the Twins massively underspent on the field yet didn't outbid everyone for Guerrero. The problem isn't even that they identified him as a player who could potentially help the franchise but failed to acquire him.

 

The problem is that based on their history, they were either incapable of acquiring him, or never serious about doing so in the first place.

 

Hope you're right about Ryan spending next year. It would be a breakthrough of historical proportion.

[jay]

The problem is that based on their history, they were either incapable of acquiring him, or never serious about doing so in the first place.

 

Hope you're right about Ryan spending next year. It would be a breakthrough of historical proportion.

 

You're absolutely right about the history aspect. As mentioned in the previous post, I (and, I believe, you) don't actually think the payroll will be ~$50m next year. Perhaps some will be spent on a replacement for Morneau. Given that would be likely an improvement, it isn't quite fair to not count that signing, as you suggest.

 

The only way payroll goes up is FA, trade, or int'l. So, despite history, it almost has to happen?