My Twins Offseason Blueprint: A Badly-Needed Major Change

[Matthew Trueblood]

Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll faces a tall order this winter. Owner Tom Pohlad has loudly proclaimed that expectations around the team are rising, and while Pohlad has also pledged to boost the payroll in support of grander goals, not all problems can be solved with money. If the Twins want to make the playoffs in 2027, they need to make some significant changes this winter. I believe they will, but they might well stop a step or two short of where they really need to go—or simply be outbid for a player who's key to their plans.

Using our Offseason Blueprint tool, I've sketched out what I think would be the ideal Twins offseason. It's no small set of changes; this would mark the end of one Twins era and the dawn of a new one.

Not Counting on Victor Caratini, and Not Waiting on Vahn Lackey

Ryan Jeffers will depart via free agency. That's not for certain, but it's a prediction I offer confidently. I wrote late last week about why the Twins might not even extend the qualifying offer to Jeffers, and even why that might be the right choice. One way or another, I expect Jeffers to leave, but that doesn't mean the team should or will leave the position in the hands of veteran Victor Caratini.

I have the team signing erstwhile Reds backstop Tyler Stephenson, whom the Blueprint tool assigns a salary of $8 million for 2027. I think that's about right; he would get that amount each year on a two-year pact. The idea is to bridge the gap from Jeffers to top prospect Vahn Lackey, whom the Twins selected with the third overall pick in July's MLB Draft. Caratini is miscast as anything above a complementary option. Stephenson, a solid righty bat with a shaky defensive profile, is similarly limited, but the two players fit nicely into the team's longstanding preference for balanced playing time between two catchers. Caratini will slough off the roster after 2027, but in this scenario, Stephenson would still be in position to support Lackey and keep him fresh in 2028.

Jettisoning Royce Lewis, and Aiming a Whole Lot Higher at First Base

I don't think the Twins face an interesting dilemma or a crossroads with Royce Lewis this fall. I think Lewis is just a bad player whom the team needs to get rid of, whether that's via trade or non-tender. The raw talent remains somewhat in evidence, but Lewis is too flawed a hitter for so limited a defender, and injuries have dimmed his former athletic brilliance. The team shouldn't put itself in any position to pay him significant money in 2027. Nor should they let him stand in the way of needed improvements, including at the positions where he's been such an underwhelming presence over the last three seasons. 

My plan includes getting rid of Lewis and signing top free-agent first baseman Jake Bauers, whom the Blueprint values at $18 million. I think it's possible Bauers makes even more than that, but let's imagine a four-year, $72-million deal and call it good. For a player with elite bat speed, excellent plate discipline and a positive clubhouse presence, that's still a great deal. The Twins need more reliable thump in the middle of their lineup; Bauers is capable of providing it. He might also cost the team a draft pick—the Brewers should extend Bauers a qualifying offer late Monday afternoon—but Bauers can be an anchor of the batting order for multiple seasons to come.

There's another noteworthy change to the 2027 infield picture on my Blueprint: current Cubs infielder Pedro Ramírez. We'll talk more about how he could become the 2027 Twins' second baseman later. Not much later, though!

A Starting Rotation Reset

Although the bullpen came in for criticism all season, quietly, the Twins' starting rotation wasn't good enough, either. That's been true in each of the last three years, as the names in the team's starting mix outdid the production each year. This winter, rather than hold onto the group that has ill-served them of late, I propose resetting the starting unit and reallocating some resources. In this scenario, the Twins would deal Joe Ryan to the Cubs, in exchange for Ramírez and outfielder Kevin Alcántara. Ramírez, 22, batted .261/.321/.402 as a rookie in 2026, and is under team control through 2032. He has a bit of speed and power, but no place in the Cubs' long-term plans, after they locked themselves into several years of Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman at second and third base, respectively. Alcántara is toolsy but strikeout-prone, and he's out of options next spring. The Twins would have to keep him on the big-league roster in order to retain him, but he's a right-handed batter who mashes lefty pitching, so there's at least a chance he's a solid fit.

I also have the team trading or non-tendering starter Bailey Ober, though not for a substantial return. With the money they save on Ryan and Ober, the club then signs (in my vision) Michael Soroka, who turned down his side of a mutual option with the Diamondbacks to become a free agent over the weekend. Soroka, 29, had a 3.41 ERA in 116 innings for Arizona in 2026. He profiles as a solid back-end starter and a possible mid-rotation guy, with an arsenal (and, in particular, a capacity for missing bats) that should appeal to the Twins. 

Pablo López anchors the rotation as I envision it, with Taj Bradley, Dean Kremer, Connor Prielipp and Soroka backing him up.

Two Major Bullpen Upgrades

Finally, I foresee two more forays into free agency for the team, to shore up that aforementioned relief corps. Jeff Hoffman should be ready to deliver a full season at the back end of the pen, but the Twins need more upside than they'll get from the likes of Andrew Morris and Tommy Nance in the middle innings. I'm predicting that they sign Jonathan Loáisiga, another free agent wrapping up a successful stint with Arizona, and lefty JoJo Romero, a teammate of Bauers's at the end of the season with the World Series-winning Brewers.

Loáisiga underwent an impressive transformation this year with the Snakes, with a well-conceived move to the first-base side of the rubber and a few corresponding tweaks to his pitch mix. He doesn't miss bats the way one might expect a hard-throwing righty reliever to do, but he induces weak contact well and still has the stuff to see the strikeout rate tick back up. Meanwhile, Romero showed late in the season that he has more sheer power than he might have initially let on. He frequently touched 96 miles per hour with his heavy sinker during Milwaukee's title run, and might be a sneaky high-leverage option at a middle-reliever price this offseason.

The Big Picture

I'm advocating for an offseason in which the Twins pivot hard toward a future centered on their top young players. Kaelen Culpepper, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodríguez, Walker Jenkins, Luke Keaschall and the newcomer Ramírez each play as close to every day as their health permits, in this scenario. Prielipp is guaranteed a rotation spot when he's able to fill it, and space is left for Kendry Rojas, Mick Abel and David Festa, given the inevitable attrition that will affect the rest of the projected group. 

At the same time, Stephenson, Bauers, Soroka, Loáisiga and Romero constitute a significant investment in the team's short-term future. The 2026 Twins were only slightly better than the 2025 version. The organization hasn't fielded a legitimate winner since 2023. They have a young core in place, and they ought to seize their opportunity to win with it. With these five players replacing (on the whole) less expensive ones like Lewis, Ryan, Ober and Trevor Larnach, I have the Twins committing $150 million to their 2027 payroll, including the money they'll send to Houston as part of last summer's Carlos Correa trade. That's relatively ambitious, but if the Twins can't summon at least that much gumption, they're in for another disappointing year.

 

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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[Rufus]

Outside of '26 Bauers numbers look pretty ordinary. a lot like Lewis' actually.   I'd keep Lewis, try converting  and developing  a prospect catcher or outfielder to 1st base before I dumped a bunch of money on Bauers.  Or trade from their outfield and minor league catcher depth for a top 1st base prospect.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm struggling to understand your proposed Joe Ryan trade. Are you just trying to dump salary? This is already a very low payroll team. And anchoring a rotation with a guy who has barely pitched in the last two years seems like you're essentially choosing "hope" as your Plan A - which never seems to work for this club.

[MackMan]

I actually don't mind any of these moves outside of giving Bauers that long of a deal. I think the Cubs might be willing to make that trade, BUT we might have to sweeten the deal the just a bit due to Ramirez having a lot of team control left. I wouldn't say give them something huge in return, but maybe a flyer on a lower level prospect who has an okay ceiling and a middling floor. Basically just a solid rotational future player. 

Essentially that Joe Ryan trade solves 3 problems (temporarily). Allows Clemens to move to 1st base (if we don't sign Bauers), allows Ramirez to play 2nd full time (until Houston gets called up and Culpepper shifts over), and allows our backlog of MLB ready starters to start to take over. Now non-tendering Ober is the right move here. He hasn't really shown us anything over the last 1-1 1/2 seasons that tells me he is starter material. He would be a good spot starter/opener for teams in a rebuild while they allow their prospects to get to the Majors. 

Non-tendering Lewis almost has to happen at this point in time. He does a lot of stuff "okay" but nothing good (except for maybe his attire or smile). He definitely hasn't lived up to his potential with being taken 1st overall. Add him to the pile of 1st round draft picks that just didn't pan out in the Twins organization. It's almost as if we have a problem with developing quality hitters and pitchers at this point. 

[rdehring]

Loved the idea of what you are trying to do, that is until I saw the return you are proposing for Ryan.  Expect if Zoll actually did that deal, he would or at least should be unemployed the next day.

Sure, is going to be interesting seeing what the Twins do with Lewis.  Not certain there is a good answer.  What I expect is that if they release him or trade him for something minimal he will be an all-star for the next several years.

[Matthew Trueblood]

11 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm struggling to understand your proposed Joe Ryan trade. Are you just trying to dump salary? This is already a very low payroll team. And anchoring a rotation with a guy who has barely pitched in the last two years seems like you're essentially choosing "hope" as your Plan A - which never seems to work for this club.

No, trading Ryan for six years' worth of Ramírez is about converting short-term value into long-term value. And while pinning too much hope on López would be folly, nor has it proved profitable to count on Ryan delivering a full season of above-average work. 

[tony&rodney]

Some confusion on my side. I like the idea of adding Pedro Rodriguez. He could become more than a utility infielder. On your list you have Matt Shaw. How does that happen? It would not. The things i like about Alcantara are defense and speed. The problem is that he is in the same boat as Emmanuel Rodriguez. How does the team roster two totally risky and unproven rookies who must remain on the roster?

The Bauers choice could be great, but he is risky and While I like his patience at the plate I'm not a big fan of his defense, although it doesn't seem as bad as the analytics show. 

[jmlease1]

Interesting moves. Don't hate it. Am a little curious as to why Matt Shaw is showing as the 2B on the graphic when you talked up a deal to get Ramirez for the 2B job? And what is the final payroll number?

I'm less enthusiastic about Bauers, simply because I'm a bit nervous about getting more LH reliant (admittedly, his splits from 2026 were excellent) and the fact that he's had exactly one season as a quality starter in MLB and that happened for him at age 30. Lot of money to put on a guy with little history of success until this season. 

ramirez is an interesting player to go get: like the speed/defense there from a switch hitter who can also be useful when not starting to give options as a runner late and then not need to trigger an additional move on defense much of the time.

[nicksaviking]

Late career breakouts for journeymen players isn't a profile I trust. Particularly if long term deals are required.

And if this team is cutting ties with Ryan and Jeffers, why would we want them giving out long term deals to free agents who are older than both?

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

No, trading Ryan for six years' worth of Ramírez is about converting short-term value into long-term value. And while pinning too much hope on López would be folly, nor has it proved profitable to count on Ryan delivering a full season of above-average work. 

FWIW, the Cubs need pitching badly and because Alcantara has struggled I believe Zoll could acquire KA and Rodriguez for Kremer. 

If I was forced to trade Ryan to the Cubs I would want Busch and Ayers coming back, maybe with Rodriguez too. Ryan has had some problems but he remains a top 25 pitcher. It seems like he is undervalued imo. 

Good article though. Thank you for putting your ideas out there.

[bjorks]

Interesting to say the least. This team on paper would be IMHO far worse. What do you do with Clemens, ERod, Buxton, Alcantara, Keaschall and the DH role? You're not going to platoon someone like Bauers, but we'd be adding another OF/DH type who can't be sent to St. Paul?

I'd argue our infield may not be strong enough as constructed to sign and get the benefits of someone like Romero who's an extreme ground ball pitcher who needs a great defense behind him for max value. 

 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, bjorks said:

Interesting to say the least. This team on paper would be IMHO far worse. What do you do with Clemens, ERod, Buxton, Alcantara, Keaschall and the DH role? You're not going to platoon someone like Bauers, but we'd be adding another OF/DH type who can't be sent to St. Paul?

I'd argue our infield may not be strong enough as constructed to sign and get the benefits of someone like Romero who's an extreme ground ball pitcher who needs a great defense behind him for max value. 

 

Your comments seem fair enough, which makes me wonder when you will post your roster?

[MeleMouth]

Ryan for Ramirez + is interesting, but it looks like Alcantara strikes out more than ERod, so one of them would have to go. Maybe get another prospect, such as Cade Townsend, a pitcher, instead.

There are lots of possible trades for Joe Ryan. Perhaps Atlanta would trade Didier Fuentes.

Tyler Stephenson is a bad defensive catcher. The Twins should get only good defensive catchers, especially if they are going to go with a younger rotation. Filling the catcher spot is going to be hard.

[bjorks]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Your comments seem fair enough, which makes me wonder when you will post your roster?

WORKING ON IT!!! 🤣

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, MeleMouth said:

Ryan for Ramirez + is interesting, but it looks like Alcantara strikes out more than ERod, so one of them would have to go. Maybe get another prospect, such as Cade Townsend, a pitcher, instead.

There are lots of possible trades for Joe Ryan. Perhaps Atlanta would trade Didier Fuentes.

Tyler Stephenson is a bad defensive catcher. The Twins should get only good defensive catchers, especially if they are going to go with a younger rotation. Filling the catcher spot is going to be hard.

Agree with you on Stephenson. Atlanta would not discuss Fuentes with Detroit for Skubal, so that must mean they want to hold him. So many variables.

When will you post your roster?

[MeleMouth]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree with you on Stephenson. Atlanta would not discuss Fuentes with Detroit for Skubal, so that must mean they want to hold him. So many variables.

When will you post your roster?

I've posted a bullpen that kind of includes a rotation. Maybe hitters are yet to come.

Have you posted a roster?

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

I've posted a bullpen that kind of includes a rotation. Maybe hitters are yet to come.

Have you posted a roster?

Yes, earlier this morning. A variable in my roster would add Brandon Lowe for Marek Houston if money is no problem and also sign Carson Kelly. I think money is an issue though .... still. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

39 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

No, trading Ryan for six years' worth of Ramírez is about converting short-term value into long-term value. And while pinning too much hope on López would be folly, nor has it proved profitable to count on Ryan delivering a full season of above-average work. 

Where do you propose Ramirez will play, once Houston arrives?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'd rather have 2-3 years of Jeffers any day rather than 2-3 years of Bauer. See what it would take to sign Jeffers and sign him. He would make a good DH and a good mentor, when Lackey is ready to play in the majors in a year or 2.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I agree with trading, but not that return. 

I agree that Lewis needs to be traded or non tendered. 

I agree with trading or non tendering Ober.

No to Bauers. He was a career negative war player until this season. He may just have been a late bloomer and continue this output, but I dont want to be the guy that pays that much to find out. Perhaps a 1B could be part of a Ryan trade return? 

Soroka is an awful idea. How many back of the rotation guys do we need? Raise the ceiling here. Go all in on Michael King leading our rotation. If im running the team, my opening day starting rotation is Michael King, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp, Dean Kremer, and Pablo Lopez. I put Pablo 5th because he is coming back from the 2nd major elbow surgery of his career. There is no guarantee he'll be effective. 

Same situation in the BP. We have middle inning guys. We need to raise the ceiling here, too. Sign David Bednar to be our Closer. Jeff Hoffman can get the 8th inning. Possibly sign another arm for the 7th. Then we have plenty of arms to fill out the rest of the pen. 

Milwaukee just won the WS with dominant pitching. We dont need back end starters and middle relievers. We need what we dont have. An Ace and a Closer. 

Find a big masher to play 1B and hit Cleanup and we might just have a contender. 

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Where do you propose Ramirez will play, once Houston arrives?

Good question. My limited time watching Rodriguez (6-7 games) last season left me thinking he would be a good player and certainly an excellent utility player. The Cubs are stuck with Matt Shaw so it is possible that Rodriguez is available. I'm not actually seeing a trade with the Cubs but one nevers knows. Too much talent has never been a Twins issue since 1970, so there are ways to use everyone. I do like Marek Houston though. I would like to see what he looks like in Spring Training. 

When will you post your roster?

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

I agree with trading, but not that return. 

I agree that Lewis needs to be traded or non tendered. 

I agree with trading or non tendering Ober.

No to Bauers. He was a career negative war player until this season. He may just have been a late bloomer and continue this output, but I dont want to be the guy that pays that much to find out. Perhaps a 1B could be part of a Ryan trade return? 

Soroka is an awful idea. How many back of the rotation guys do we need? Raise the ceiling here. Go all in on Michael King leading our rotation. If im running the team, my opening day starting rotation is Michael King, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp, Dean Kremer, and Pablo Lopez. I put Pablo 5th because he is coming back from the 2nd major elbow surgery of his career. There is no guarantee he'll be effective. 

Same situation in the BP. We have middle inning guys. We need to raise the ceiling here, too. Sign David Bednar to be our Closer. Jeff Hoffman can get the 8th inning. Possibly sign another arm for the 7th. Then we have plenty of arms to fill out the rest of the pen. 

Milwaukee just won the WS with dominant pitching. We dont need back end starters and middle relievers. We need what we dont have. An Ace and a Closer. 

Find a big masher to play 1B and hit Cleanup and we might just have a contender. 

Mike King would be a sweet addition to the starting rotation. He will likely get $100M over 3 or 4 years though. I just can't think of what a roster budget looks like. 

When will you put up your roster? Or did you?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I like all of the moves, honestly, except if they are trading Ryan, I wouldn't prioritize Kevin Alcantara coming back. I even really like Pedro Ramirez as a start of a return, but instead of another outfielder, I'd try and get an arm or two back that they like with Ramirez as a return instead.

The Twins system is generally low on arms at the moment, overall. I'd prefer that to prioritizing an outfielder in return.

Like the moves otherwise. Thanks!

[Greglw3]

I truly like and admire your bold thinking Matthew and this is a good and viable plan for the Twins. You’ve solid addressed starting pitching, avoided the risk in counting on Royce Lewis again and introduced just enough veteran talent to complement the high potential of the young outfield core.

There’s one more thing I would do and that’s sign Luis Arraez. The Twins desperately need his high batting average and contact skills to drive in runs that recent free swinging teams have not been able to bring home. Let the current batting title leader return to the franchise of batting titles (Carew-7, Oliva-3, Mauer-3, Puckett-1, Arraez-1 = 15 batting titles and oops, 17 batting titles counting Morneau and Cuddyer,  which we can’t), and provide stability at the top. Keaschall, Arraez and Bauers would make a fine first three.

Plus his defense is said to be drastically improved thanks to our old friend Ron Washington, who was one of the best 3rd basemen I ever saw play when he was with the Toledo Mud Hens, my birthplace, around 1980. The regularity of his startling diving stops was nuts!

An aside was I saw Dave Engle battle Wade Boggs for the IL batting title, winning by 1 percentage point!