Twins 2027 Arbitration Decisions: Who Stays, Who Goes?

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How much excess value do any of those players have?     What would Lewis, Larnach, or Sands bring in trade?  Not much.  They could keep Lewis and still open his roster spot by making Lewis a utility player. 

They need to upgrade some positions.  Running the same failed players out there and expecting a different result is not a good plan.  We would be in much better shape had they accepted this reality last off-season.

I’m fine with trading Larnach for a 40FV A-ball prospect like Fragoza.

Sands still has an option. They can stash him in AAA or cut him in the spring if they find an upgrade.

I think Lewis would be an adequate utility player, but if another team wants him for 3B I would trade him. 

The other interesting thing about arbitration is which players might be available on other teams.

[HerbieFan]

Well done Nick.  Agree with almost everything...percentages and all.  Given the low cost, I'd think Banda and Nance make sense to bring back as mid-leverage guys.  

[IndianaTwin]

I’m generally with those in favor or re-signing all of them at these prices.

But in my mind, the issue that’s bigger than salaries is roster spots. Can they afford to tie up 10 roster spots?

So while it’s cool to discuss these, let’s first hash out who needs to be added to the 40-man to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Who are the guys for whom decisions must be made?

Also before this is the deadline for a Qualifying Offer. I give it to Jeffers, though I think he declines it, which frees up a spot.

(But to add, I’ve hopefully already re-signed Jeffers at 4/$80M, with plans for him to move to 1B/DH as Lackey, et al., bring their talent to Target Field. That adds him back to the 40-man.)

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’m generally with those in favor or re-signing all of them at these prices.

But in my mind, the issue that’s bigger than salaries is roster spots. Can they afford to tie up 10 roster spots?

So while it’s cool to discuss these, let’s first hash out who needs to be added to the 40-man to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Who are the guys for whom decisions must be made?

Also before this is the deadline for a Qualifying Offer. I give it to Jeffers, though I think he declines it, which frees up a spot.

(But to add, I’ve hopefully already re-signed Jeffers at 4/$80M, with plans for him to move to 1B/DH as Lackey, et al., bring their talent to Target Field. That adds him back to the 40-man.)

So, bring back the same team that has lost more than won for two years? I just don't get it. 

[IndianaTwin]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, bring back the same team that has lost more than won for two years? I just don't get it. 

I said “bring them back,” I didn’t say “bring them back in the same position.”

I’d liken it to the comment I made on the Josh Bell signing. I said the Twins could be competitive if he was successful and batted seventh, but not if he was successful and batted cleanup. 

Batting seventh would have required Lewis and Wallner, for example, to have hit well enough to slide him down the lineup.

Similarly, I’d say the Twins are probably not going to be successful if Tommy Nance starts the year in one of the highest-level roles. But if Banda starts the season as the No. 6 guy in the pen, that could be a pretty good pen.

Similarly with some of the hitters. They are likely not going to be successful starting the season with Lewis playing 1b and batting fifth, for example, but given that Lee serves as a backup shortstop, Lewis as a utility option because they upgraded at 1b and 2b is a different story. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I’m fine with trading Larnach for a 40FV A-ball prospect like Fragoza.

Sands still has an option. They can stash him in AAA or cut him in the spring if they find an upgrade.

I think Lewis would be an adequate utility player, but if another team wants him for 3B I would trade him. 

The other interesting thing about arbitration is which players might be available on other teams.

That's a good point about Sands having an option.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

while it’s cool to discuss these, let’s first hash out who needs to be added to the 40-man to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Who are the guys for whom decisions must be made?

The list is CJ Culpepper and Kalai Rosario.

[Coach]

Tender them all and let spring training give them rope; pull themselves up, or hang.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, bring back the same team that has lost more than won for two years? I just don't get it. 

They can’t turn over 40 roster spots in an offseason. Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez are replacing Wallner, Outman and Gray. Kremer is replacing Ober in the rotation. 
 

They need a catcher, infielder and some relief pitchers. Cutting Banda and Nance just means they need to add 5 relievers instead of adding 3.

[Brandon]

To me there seems to be opportunities to trade some of these guys for prospects or international spending cap space.  (The Twins could go big on top international prospect especially if we traded for an extra 1 -2 million in cap space .. There are also some low ball opportunities.  Banda for 1 year 1.7 million with layers of incentives for example 250k for 35 games and 250k more at 60 or 55 games.  Or get non tendered. .  

There should be a market for Larnarch, Ober, and Lewis.  Let's make a deal or three.  We can include Banda and Nance instead of nontender.  Can we get and decent prospects and or spending cap space for the international market? 

I like the non tender Sands and resign to minor league deal. 

Taj, Clemens, Kramer, Nance, and Ryan are easy pickups.  Nance is cheap at 1.2 million.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

Tom alluded to that they were going to go on a spending spree this off season. He didn't say how or who they would spend on. These might be the who and how. Tom brings them all back. lol

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How much excess value do any of those players have?     What would Lewis, Larnach, or Sands bring in trade?  Not much.  They could keep Lewis and still open his roster spot by making Lewis a utility player. 

They need to upgrade some positions.  Running the same failed players out there and expecting a different result is not a good plan.  We would be in much better shape had they accepted this reality last off-season.

Tendering a contract to players with the intention of trading them isn’t a sound plan. That’s how we get stuck with $7 million Ober who continues his velocity decline, or $5 million Lewis who’s still a sub .700 OPS player. 

Fully agree. Trim the fat and use the extra payroll budget for better players. 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

So while it’s cool to discuss these, let’s first hash out who needs to be added to the 40-man to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Who are the guys for whom decisions must be made?

Are we sure a Rule 5 draft is happening? I don’t think that happened during the last lockout in 2020

[sweetmusicviola16]

And the little brown jug is going to spend a rare year in MN. Yay!!!

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, beckmt said:

 Able, Prilipp, Kramer, Mathews.  

0-4

[sweetmusicviola16]

At this point I'd prefer we move on from Larnach, Ober and Lewis. Would prefer to see the next generation have oppurtunity even if they fail.  Would prefer to see upgrades over Sands, Banda and Nance. Bradley, Ryan and Clemens are givens. A 77 win team should expect to see some cuts of its roster.

 

[David Maro]

This team needs major roster moves for 27. If and that's a big if the season starts on time this roster isn't 14 games better next season. With the White Sox and Cleveland looking this good and the Tigers will be better it's going to take 90+ to win the division. And they just aren't good enough to win a WC series.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 minutes ago, David Maro said:

This team needs major roster moves for 27. If and that's a big if the season starts on time this roster isn't 14 games better next season. With the White Sox and Cleveland looking this good and the Tigers will be better it's going to take 90+ to win the division. And they just aren't good enough to win a WC series.

This all of the way. This team as it is built is not even close to competing for anything other than 4th or 5th place in the division. I'm not even looking at 2027 personally as being able to get there. Matthews, Bradley, Prielipp, Jenkins, Cullpepper, Rodriguez, Keaschell need to grow and go through a few more growing pains. Add to them for when they do reach maturity. Then we might be able to compete with the CWS who will likely be good for awhile. With the young players in mind is why we needed to get max value out of Ryan and Jeffers. But they blew this chance.  

[IndianaTwin]

42 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Are we sure a Rule 5 draft is happening? I don’t think that happened during the last lockout in 2020

Good point. It may not. 

But I assume teams need to act like it will and the deadline to add is before the December 1 lockout date. 

[DocBauer]

Sorry Ober fans...and I'm one of them...but if it's $7M for him as a pen option, or $7-8M to resign Minter, I'm going with Minter. And I just can't see a 90MPH Ober in the pen for $7M.

I would absolutely make an offer to Banda. He's not great, but he'd be really solid as the #2 LH in the pen. And for only $2.3M why would we even need to debate it?

$1.2-1.3M for Nance and/or Sands is really cheap for a pair of decent middle men. And like Topa this past season...signed for similar $...either would be an easy cut if you're not happy. Now, if they sign ANOTHER RP of quality besides Minter, I can see not offering Nance. But if you can stash Sands at St Paul, again, why wouldn't you sign him for so cheap?

I just think it's time to move on from Larnach. He's not a bad ballplayer, and he's got some value, but not at $6-7M as a part time player for an OF that has Buxton, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Keaschall already penciled in. The Twins might like him as insurance, but I wouldn't do it. The $ can be better spent elsewhere. 

I'd keep Lewis for $5M as a utility player at 1B/2B/3B/PH. I want someone like that on the team for better depth. And maybe we get lucky and something actually clicks for him in 2028. But I don't see him accepting that role. I think he still sees himself as a starter. And both he and the team are probably better with a parting of ways. The Twins find someone else for that bench role, and Lewis gets a fresh start. 

[SE23]

What do you think it would take to get Kelly? I'm assuming it will be a lot more than the 3 years, $10 million per that Vazquez got in 2023.

But a lot less than $22M/YR for 4 years Jeffers will probably get.

If Edwards proves too difficult to acquire, I'd settle for Arraez or Brandon Lowe... 😁

Yandy Diaz, admittedly, will be tough to get. If so, we can fill the DH role in '27 with a rotation of Keaschall, Buck, Roden, ERod & Kody.

[SE23]

Just found a post from last week that appears to confirm that Anthony Banda is not expected to be available until around the All Star Break in '27. 

[SE23]

How about a transaction with the Nats to acquire Seaver King?

[SE23]

Or with the Mariners for Michael Arroyo?

[IndianaTwin]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The list is CJ Culpepper and Kalai Rosario.

Thanks. That’s helpful. It being a short list makes it easier to retain people.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Would prefer to see upgrades over Sands, Banda and Nance.

I don’t think any MLB bullpen has 8 guys better than Nance. He’s probably worth $4-5M on the free agent market.

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry Ober fans...and I'm one of them...but if it's $7M for him as a pen option, or $7-8M to resign Minter, I'm going with Minter. And I just can't see a 90MPH Ober in the pen for $7M.. 

Minter had an excellent year. Why would he take a 40% pay cut to sign with the Twins? The choice is Ober at $7M or someone like Kenley Jansen for $7M.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

At this point I'd prefer we move on from Larnach, Ober and Lewis. Would prefer to see the next generation have oppurtunity even if they fail.  Would prefer to see upgrades over Sands, Banda and Nance. Bradley, Ryan and Clemens are givens. A 77 win team should expect to see some cuts of its roster.

 

Those 3 would account for almost $20M.  Spend that money on one good player or 2 RPs.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

On 10/3/2026 at 7:46 PM, StiltedGopher said:

When does the new pitching coach get named?  I’d want that person involved on the decisions on the pitchers.  

That's a reasonable take, but I doubt the Twins front office would even factor that into their decision.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, SE23 said:

Just found a post from last week that appears to confirm that Anthony Banda is not expected to be available until around the All Star Break in '27. 

Did he have another injury? The initial timeline on his surgery recovery was he would be ready for spring training.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Did he have another injury? The initial timeline on his surgery recovery was he would be ready for spring training.

I was wondering about that too. What was the source of the longer recovery?