Three Seasons In, I Still Have No Idea What to Make of Brooks Lee

[old nurse]

XWOBA was lower than WOBA  you predict falloff. BABIP  was lower than league average, thus predicting better hitting. The assumption of statistics shows 2 different outcomes

[StiltedGopher]

Let’s give Lee credit for incremental improvement though it has been a bit painful the past years having that development happen at the mlb level.  The Twins probably pencil Lee into third base next year.  He is satisfactory at that position.  The Twins need to figure out a lot of other needs that are not satisfactory.
 

However, there are options that may not fall off much and have an higher ceiling.  Assumption that Culpepper eventually moves off short for Marek Houston.  I hear 2B for Culpepper but he had a couple seasons at 3B in college.  Ben Ross was a 20/20 guy in St Paul - once settled in MLB wonder if he could exceed Lee.  The Morrisette guy at St Paul is interesting at 2nd - wonder if he could push Culpepper towards third rather than second. Fine if Clemens plays some second, I would not make him ‘the’ second baseman.  
 

I started this thinking Lee isn’t the Twins worry right now.  But thinking through this - they have options that would likely hold steady and possibly provide upside.  I certainly would consider trade options that might help other spots (bullpen, 2B, short term catcher), but wouldn’t give Lee away.  And if he is 3B to start next year, maybe he keeps on the incremental improvement.  

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

14 minutes ago, StiltedGopher said:

 Ben Ross was a 20/20 guy in St Paul - once settled in MLB wonder if he could exceed Lee.  The Morrisette guy at St Paul is interesting at 2nd - wonder if he could push Culpepper towards third rather than second. Fine if Clemens plays some second, I would not make him ‘the’ second baseman.

Crazy talk, Morrisette is a year older than Lee and has never played in the majors, Ross is 6 months younger has 21 plate appearances in the majors and they might push Lee off a position? You don't think if Lee was in the minors he would be putting up better numbers than either of them two. He hit more homers in the majors than either of those two did in the minors. Both of those two guys future are utility/bench guys. 🫣

[Trov]

Lee was drafted as a high floor but low ceiling kind of guy. This year he appears to be getting that floor up there. Might he regress, yes, might he build on it, yes. I doubt he will ever be a star, but if can be a solid average at bat, and put up average defense, where ever he lands, that is okay. Not all high picks turn out to be stars, some never play a major league game. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The underlying metrics give pause for skepticism, totally fair.  But I think this kid's makeup is one worth betting on.  I think he's going to be a good player for us and one that we can pencil in the lineup everyday at 3B for the forseeable future.

This. There is room for skepticism.... But he's gotten better each year and he's finally at third. I expect slightly better results next year. 

[HerbieFan]

Man, the Raleigh season is one of the biggest mysteries of 2026.  On Brooks, I think we saw this year what he is.  Not an All-Star, but a guy who can play above average defense, give you a .740 OPS with 60 extra base hits and drive in 80 runs (Yes, I believe there is still value in driving in runs...it's the object of the game isn't it?  To score runs?...lol).  

[SE23]

His scouting report shows that he was expected to be better than a "high floor" player. I would argue that he is SLOWLY working his way towards his potential ceiling. A 65 hit tool suggests a .275-.300 hitter, which he has not yet attained. But if he continues to improve, he can reach that level. Maybe 25-30 HR satisfies the 55 Power number? So, is a .280 hitter with 27 HR and 88 RBI (who also fields his position more than dependably) a 60 Overall player.

[Danchat]

8 hours ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

As for metrics, after it has happened (game, week, month, season) they are pretty useless, the numbers are the numbers, how they got to them is irrelevant. Arguing one player is better than another player based on metrics because somebody was lucky or unlucky or won't be able to repeat something is a fools errand and ridiculous. 

Said metrics can forecast whether a player will progress or regress going forward. And it's not as if all the metrics were negative for Lee, the crux of the article was that Lee's quality of contact improved by quite a bit, resulting in more power despite a high chase rate and bat speed.

I'd trust Lee to hold down the 3B position going forward, but due to those metrics I'm not expecting him to take a major leap in hitting next year.

[MeleMouth]

My read on Brooks Lee.

He looks like an above-average defensive 3B.

He makes contact a lot, especially in the zone.

He doesn't make square or hard contact, but at least this year he seemed to be able to poke several balls over the fence. Some of this could be a little luck, because his HR/FB rate was higher than last year, but he also hit more FBs and LDs period.

He doesn't walk much (a metronomic 5.9% of his plate appearances in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026), possibly because his weak power makes pitchers less scared to pitch him more in the zone and his high contact rates make throwing outside the zone less helpful (for example, he's pitched in the heart of the plate more than Lewis, but outside and away much less frequently).

On the continuum between baseball smarts and athletic skill, he's much closer to the baseball smarts side than is the average player.

His Statcast stats in 2026 were almost the same as they were in 2024 and 2025, suggesting his results this year may have been more from batted ball luck.

Prediction for 2027: even better defense, possibly similar or a little worse offense. He may be maximizing his ability, but refinement of his line drive and fly ball skills, combined with possible improvements in strength, could yield a few more homers. If he could figure out a way to take more walks, he could also gain himself better pitches to hit.

[DocBauer]

He came in to 2026 at only 25yo and with what amounts to almost 1 1/2 years of ML time, but not quite. He had a poor rookie debut. He was still not good in 2025, but he was definitely improved.

Now, in his second full season, he has improved his entire offensive profile over his previous 1 1/2 season's numbers. Run, hits, DBLs, HR, RBI, AVG, OB, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ were ALL improved. Heck, he even had career highs in Trips and SB, FWIW, lol. And he looked at home at 3B, and went from a poor defender at SS to a solid if not above average defender on the hot corner.

And I understand some underlying metrics don't paint a rosy picture. Except, reality is he's continued to get better. And who knows, maybe he's just a 1st round washout and this is as good as it gets.

But I'm betting not. And I'm betting the 2027 version of him will be as good, and probably even a little better now that he's found a comfortable home on the INF, and has another year of experience under his belt.

[purplesoldier4u]

I never thought he would never even sniff 20 HRs!

[Patzky]

20 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

My read on Brooks Lee.

He looks like an above-average defensive 3B.

He makes contact a lot, especially in the zone.

He doesn't make square or hard contact, but at least this year he seemed to be able to poke several balls over the fence. Some of this could be a little luck, because his HR/FB rate was higher than last year, but he also hit more FBs and LDs period.

He doesn't walk much (a metronomic 5.9% of his plate appearances in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026), possibly because his weak power makes pitchers less scared to pitch him more in the zone and his high contact rates make throwing outside the zone less helpful (for example, he's pitched in the heart of the plate more than Lewis, but outside and away much less frequently).

On the continuum between baseball smarts and athletic skill, he's much closer to the baseball smarts side than is the average player.

His Statcast stats in 2026 were almost the same as they were in 2024 and 2025, suggesting his results this year may have been more from batted ball luck.

Prediction for 2027: even better defense, possibly similar or a little worse offense. He may be maximizing his ability, but refinement of his line drive and fly ball skills, combined with possible improvements in strength, could yield a few more homers. If he could figure out a way to take more walks, he could also gain himself better pitches to hit.

If his HRs become ringing doubles, they may become singles because Lee is not fleet afoot. .280 and defense? Yeah that's ok by me.

[Senior Softball Guy]

Two out, bases loaded, who do you want up at the plate? Career average around .450. Filling up statsheets is great fun, but delivering in the clutch....that wins ballgames.

[Pdxtwins]

Solid player and a building block (or a trade piece) if he is able to take a few more walks.

[Linus]

The premise of the article is strange to me. Brooks has been one of the most predictable players on the team. His scouting report when drafted has turned out to be quite accurate. Which was a contact hitter that won’t stick at short but should be good at third. Thats exactly what he is turning out to be. I would expect Brooks to be a fine third baseman as early as the middle of next year. His hitting has improved slightly year over year and I think with more strike zone recognition he can add some OBP to his acceptable power numbers. In short, if Brooks is your floor you have a good team; if he is your ceiling you ain’t going places. He has earned the right to be written in in pen for third next year. 

[MeleMouth]

11 hours ago, Patzky said:

If his HRs become ringing doubles, they may become singles because Lee is not fleet afoot. .280 and defense? Yeah that's ok by me.

Lee hit .253 this year. Sorcery would be required to increase his batting average by 30 points because homers became singles or doubles.

In fact, the opposite would probably occur, with fewer balls leaving the park causing his batting average to go down. Using this year's .268 BABIP (career-high), if all of Lee's homers stayed in the park, 24 HRs would become 6 hits and 18 outs, and his BA would go from .253 to .222.