Going Forward: To DH or to Not DH

[DocBauer]

Look, I understand the 2026 season isn't done yet. And I'm still engaged and hopefull out Twins will finish this season strong and make the playoffs. No matter what happens, that's just more FUN than the season ending.

BUT, there have been so many posts about K-Pepper FINALLY up, and debates about Rodriguez and Jenkins and "getting ready for 2027" already, that my brain is already looking at tomorrow, while still paying attention to TODAY...especially with a sweep of Atlanta...that a combination of TODAY vs TOMORROW is heavy on my brain.

While NOT ignoring the NOW, there's been so much conversation about "what's next" that is a bee in my brain looking at this ONE particular spot for 2027 that I just can't ignore. This isn't about moves the remainder of 2026. I have my own opinions about that, as do the rest of you.

I'm just trying to coalece those opinions with the rest of 2026, and the reality of  2027 to answer a very serious question. 

To DH or NOT to DH?

And by that I mean, when the dust of 2026 settles, what we WANT to see is a  K-Pepper debut, which we got, and Rodriguez and Jenkins to also debut, which we haven't seen yet. There's still a chance we see both.

But let's flash forward for a moment shall we? 

More than likely Bell and Larnach are removed. Jenkins is ready. Rodriguez, IMO, is also ready. And I've heard various thoughts that Rodriguez, out of options, could be treated as the 13th man, being nursed along to adapt to MLB. I call BS on that because the best and smart thing to do is let him and Jenkins play daily and live with some mistakes. LIKE other teams like the Brewers have done. STOP being afraid of playing your TOP prospects.  

But I regress.

The CATCHING position for 2027, for now, is Caratini and Jackson.

UNLESS the Twins just jump Houston, which is not their normal, the INF will begin with Lee, Culpepper, Clemens, and Lewis. (Personally, I think Houston is a given by mid season at least). That leaves a SU spot that is probably Kreidler, or a surprise of Ross. Maybe they sign a solid option instead? 

But the OF is going to be Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez. That's a fact. And I'm sorry for being long winded, but I'm just setting the roster table. 

That leaves 2 spots open, pending the IDEAL of Houston just being ready day ONE. But supposing Houston ISN'T just brought up immediately, there's 2 spots open.

Buxton will need some days off at DH. We have a nice mix of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez in the the OF.

And we have a pretty solid INF of Lee, K-Pepper, Clemens...at least for now...and Lewis with a battle of Kreidler and Ross that SHOULD take place for the SU role, unless they bring someone else in.

So SHOULD the 2027 Twins be looking for another Cruz type of bat? 

Buxton will need some time at DH. Lee, while not a great hitter, has suddenly turned in to a potential 20HR hitter. POST trip down to AAA, Lewis has been very good/solid. And he doesn't have to do anything but just be the hitter he's been since he came back and he's a 20HR bat. While I don't expect K-Pepper to suddenly explode, he's shown XB and HR power in his MILB career.

Clemens has shown power. Even as rookies, Rodriguez and Jenkins will provide some power.

The biggest flaw in a potential 2027 roster is probably the 5th OF spot. (At some point, Houston is going to be ready).

Cruz was an amazing difference maker for the Twins. And I have ZERO problem spending $15-18M for a similar player to be the DH for the 2027 Twins. 

But does it make sense is my point.

THEORETICALLY, the Twins have 20 HR power at 1B, 3B, CF, maybe at SS with Culpepper already done that, plus Clemens, and the potential of Rodriguez and Jenkins. 

So SHOULD the Twins be looking for a Cruz like bat? Or should they leave the DH spot open to allow Buxton, Keaschall, Rodriguez, Lewis, and the rest of the lineup to just rotate through the DH spot?

 

[HarmonK03]

No I don't think they should sign someone to be DH only.  For one I am not sure if there is a quality bat out there who would fit but also this team likes flexibility, why handicap yourself with a bat only player like Bell this year.

They have four outfielders if it plays out as you laid out which I believe it will.  They all need regular AB's so rotating thru the DH spot accomplishes that.  I think that was the original plan this year was to rotate the DH maybe with Larnach being there more.  They did not sign Bell to be the DH, he was signed to be the first baseman which was a huge miss by Falvey, don't make the same mistake this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm in the leave it open camp. I also want Houston up day one. I'm disappointed he's not in AAA. 

[stringer bell]

43 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

 They did not sign Bell to be the DH, he was signed to be the first baseman which was a huge miss by Falvey, don't make the same mistake this offseason.

Josh Bell has played in 20 games at first base, starting 18 and completing 10. @HarmonK03 has constantly repeated that Bell was signed to play first base, which is not reality. He was signed to hit first and was aware that he might play in the field at first base, as has happened. I don't think it's a huge mistake to have him be available to occasionally play in the field. If he had been the "regular" first baseman for all season it probably would have hurt the team's already poor defense. Asit is, Bell has compiled a small positive rating for Defensive Runs Saved (almost certainly a small sample size).

Bell isn't prime Nelson Cruz, but he's been a perennially above-average hitter and that has carried through this year. Having him as the regular DH doesn't allow for much resting of other position players by DHing, but it provides continuity and deepens the lineup particularly with a switch hitter who is going to hit somewhere between third and fifth. 

The 2027 Twins will have an extra OF to be the predominant DH if everyone is healthy (big if), so it might make sense to leave the position open and use it to take half games off for several players. Another guy who might take a lot of DH at-bats is Hendry Mendez and of course if they keep Larnach, he would be a candidate (and also Matt Wallner).

[HarmonK03]

12 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Josh Bell has played in 20 games at first base, starting 18 and completing 10. @HarmonK03 has constantly repeated that Bell was signed to play first base, which is not reality.

All the reporting at the time of the signing said Bell was signed to play 1B and Clemens would slide into a utility role.  I believe Falvey even came out and said this.  Their plan was to rotate the DH position.  Just because Bell can't play 1B doesn't mean they didn't sign him to play 1B.  His signing was to replace France.

[Possumlad]

12 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

All the reporting at the time of the signing said Bell was signed to play 1B and Clemens would slide into a utility role.  I believe Falvey even came out and said this.  Their plan was to rotate the DH position.  Just because Bell can't play 1B doesn't mean they didn't sign him to play 1B.  His signing was to replace France.

Regardless of what was or wasn't said (or written about) at the time, I think the easiest way to evaluate what "the plan" was is to see what they did. Bell DH'd the first 7 games of this season. He rotated in some at 1B after that, but never more than a few games at a time. He was clearly signed as a bat-first guy w/ the idea that he'd play some 1B. 

[HarmonK03]

36 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Regardless of what was or wasn't said (or written about) at the time, I think the easiest way to evaluate what "the plan" was is to see what they did. Bell DH'd the first 7 games of this season. He rotated in some at 1B after that, but never more than a few games at a time. He was clearly signed as a bat-first guy w/ the idea that he'd play some 1B. 

So by your logic, the plan wasn't for Lewis at 3B, Keaschall at 2B or Lee at SS until Culpepper was ready since that is not what they stuck with.  You do know plans can change.  You have to look at the time of the signing not at today.  I am definitely glad Bell is not playing in the field currently but I do believe that was the plan.  They had no identifiable replacement for France at the time.  They had no way to know if Clemens would replicate 2025 or come close to it in December of 2025 not today.  That is why I believe the signing was made and was a poor decision from that standpoint.  

You made a declarative statement that it clearly wasn't, do you have some quotes to show this.  I feel pretty confident based on public reporting at the time but if there were direct quotes at the time contradicting this please let me know.

[Whammy]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But the OF is going to be Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez. That's a fact. And I'm sorry for being long winded, but I'm just setting the roster table. 

 

To me, this paragraph right here answers your question. 

That's 4 OF. I want all of them to play almost every day. There will of course be injuries along the way, but when they are all healthy I want that DH spot open so that all 4 can be in the lineup. 

 

[Whammy]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm in the leave it open camp. I also want Houston up day one. I'm disappointed he's not in AAA. 

I feel like the Twins in years past have done a decent amount of promoting to AAA the last 2-4 weeks of the season for their best prospects. I wouldn't be surprised at all of Houston is promoted to AAA for the last few weeks of the season. 

[FlyingFinn]

24 minutes ago, Whammy said:

I feel like the Twins in years past have done a decent amount of promoting to AAA the last 2-4 weeks of the season for their best prospects. I wouldn't be surprised at all of Houston is promoted to AAA for the last few weeks of the season. 

Agreed, mainly because St. Paul now plays longer than the rest. Therefore, the best one or two players at AA usually get bumped up to the Saints to get a little more playing time.

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, Whammy said:

I feel like the Twins in years past have done a decent amount of promoting to AAA the last 2-4 weeks of the season for their best prospects. I wouldn't be surprised at all of Houston is promoted to AAA for the last few weeks of the season. 

Yes they do! But I can already hear the excuse next year that he's only had a few weeks at AAA.....

[Possumlad]

36 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

So by your logic, the plan wasn't for Lewis at 3B, Keaschall at 2B or Lee at SS until Culpepper was ready since that is not what they stuck with.  You do know plans can change.  You have to look at the time of the signing not at today.  I am definitely glad Bell is not playing in the field currently but I do believe that was the plan.  They had no identifiable replacement for France at the time.  They had no way to know if Clemens would replicate 2025 or come close to it in December of 2025 not today.  That is why I believe the signing was made and was a poor decision from that standpoint.  

You made a declarative statement that it clearly wasn't, do you have some quotes to show this.  I feel pretty confident based on public reporting at the time but if there were direct quotes at the time contradicting this please let me know.

No - the opposite. They started with Lewis at 3B, Keaschall at 2B, and Lee at SS because that was the plan for those guys (until things changed). They didn't start Bell at 1B because it appears that wasn't the plan. I have no way of knowing exactly what they were thinking when they signed Bell, just basing that on what they actually did.

[Whammy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes they do! But I can already hear the excuse next year that he's only had a few weeks at AAA.....

I don't see any reason why he can't be on the Culpepper schedule (just one year behind). I feel like the Twins were pretty aggressive with Culpepper and he probably would have been called up in June if it wasn't for his glute injury. 

That's a perfectly acceptable (and aggressive) timeline in my opinion. But I'd be ok with faster based on.... How does Culpepper's defense look these last 5 weeks? Are we OK with him holding down SS in at least the first half of 2027? Or is it going to be a Brooks Lee 2026 situation where we're anxious to move him off of SS as soon as we can?

Shifting guys around the infield midseason isn't ideal, but I'm willing to do it if the end result looks much better than the previous status quo. But, if we think Houston is going to be up by May, I'd rather just have Culpepper working in spring training and the offseason on whatever position he's going to end up at (And potentially Brooks Lee, if we decided Culpepper's best spot is 3B).

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Possumlad said:

Regardless of what was or wasn't said (or written about) at the time, I think the easiest way to evaluate what "the plan" was is to see what they did. Bell DH'd the first 7 games of this season. He rotated in some at 1B after that, but never more than a few games at a time. He was clearly signed as a bat-first guy w/ the idea that he'd play some 1B. 

I agree... actions speak louder than words. 

I believe the plan at 1B out of spring training was Clemens vs RH and Caratini vs LH.

Then things started to change. 

Because things change and they always change... To answer Doc's question.   

Unless it is a special bat. Beyond a Bell bat first type. We are talking Nelson Cruz type special.   

Unless it is a special bat. Do not sign a DH in the off-season because things change and they always change and that DH bat first guy will be be needed in the field eventually and not filling the spot with average will allow you to rotate more players through which creates more opportunity for competition and the identification of players who are performing.    

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Whammy said:

I don't see any reason why he can't be on the Culpepper schedule (just one year behind). I feel like the Twins were pretty aggressive with Culpepper and he probably would have been called up in June if it wasn't for his glute injury. 

That's a perfectly acceptable (and aggressive) timeline in my opinion. But I'd be ok with faster based on.... How does Culpepper's defense look these last 5 weeks? Are we OK with him holding down SS in at least the first half of 2027? Or is it going to be a Brooks Lee 2026 situation where we're anxious to move him off of SS as soon as we can?

Shifting guys around the infield midseason isn't ideal, but I'm willing to do it if the end result looks much better than the previous status quo. But, if we think Houston is going to be up by May, I'd rather just have Culpepper working in spring training and the offseason on whatever position he's going to end up at (And potentially Brooks Lee, if we decided Culpepper's best spot is 3B).

 

This. I'd rather Culpeper move to second in the off-season, not in June. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree... actions speak louder than words. 

I believe the plan at 1B out of spring training was Clemens vs RH and Caratini vs LH.

Then things started to change. 

Because things change and they always change... To answer Doc's question.   

Unless it is a special bat. Beyond a Bell bat first type. We are talking Nelson Cruz type special.   

Unless it is a special bat. Do not sign a DH in the off-season because things change and they always change and that DH bat first guy will be be needed in the field eventually and not filling the spot with average will allow you to rotate more players through which creates more opportunity for competition and the identification of players who are performing.    

I'm hard pressed to see that bat in free agency next year..... We are in agreement.

[Riverbrian]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I'm hard pressed to see that bat in free agency next year..... We are in agreement.

If we have free agent dollars to spend. It should be spent on infield or pitching. 

We will have Buxton, Larnach, Keaschall, Martin, Jenkins, Erod, Wallner, Roden and even Mendez as potential OF options.

Granted there will be trades and player movement but we will need to use that DH space to maximize utilization on all options because none of them should be glued to the bench. 

[Possumlad]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. I'd rather Culpeper move to second in the off-season, not in June. 

I'd much rather keep Culpepper at SS until Marek forces the issue. You don't move a high-level young SS off the position for a prospect who's currently at AA (not to say I don't have faith in Marek). KC is proving right it right now at the big league level. If he ends up at 2B so be it, but I don't think you force it in the offseason.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm hard pressed to see that bat in free agency next year..... We are in agreement.

There is only 1 bat that I would consider as a DH bat and its Arraez which he won't do.   

[The Great Hambino]

19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Unless it is a special bat. Beyond a Bell bat first type. We are talking Nelson Cruz type special.   

He has a name, and that name is Yandy Diaz. Looking at his numbers, they look maybe a notch below the Cruz the Twins were getting in January 2019 - better average, less power, slightly lower OPS+.  Still the kind of bat that can raise both the ceiling and the floor of their lineup

One benefit of general roster positional flexibility is you can go after the best bat available in free agency regardless of position.  If they had to hunt for a C or a 3B specifically, they'd be working with a smaller available pool.  I think Yandy is the kind of bat you can tweak your roster to fit around

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Possumlad said:

I'd much rather keep Culpepper at SS until Marek forces the issue. You don't move a high-level young SS off the position for a prospect who's currently at AA (not to say I don't have faith in Marek). KC is proving right it right now at the big league level. If he ends up at 2B so be it, but I don't think you force it in the offseason.

That's fair. I'm very aggressive with potential stars. I get not everyone agrees. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Guys, I think we already know what's going to happen. Next year's Opening Day DH is ... Josh Bell. Not only is that the likely answer, it's the right answer. Absent injury, he's going to finish this year with 20 plus HRs, 90 plus RBIs, and a slash line of roughly .260/.325/.435 (or better). Bell is our best run producer this year, likely to be one of our best next year, and he's already shown us that he will be one of if not the best clutch bat we have down the stretch. He's an experienced bat who can hit 4 or 5 in a contending team's lineup aginst both RH and LH pitching with neutral platoon splits. He's a leader and well liked in the clubhouse. He likes it here. We don't need another bench glove with the versatility of Kriedler and Clemens so we can carry a full time DH who can fill in at 1B in a pinch. There is a mutual option at $10m with a $1.25m buy out so his real cost is $8.75m with the option. The Twins are likely to exercise their half of the option if only to avoid the buy out cost and I doubt if he will get offered much more than $10m anywhere else. Bell just makes too much sense to be gone unless he gets a big money offer elsewhere OR we think all 3 of Keaschall, Jenkins and EmRod are going to hit better than Bell and the DH rotation will provide more than 20 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a .775- .800 OPS. Keaschall looks like a likely yes, but the other 2 - who knows? They are pretty unlikely to have an OPS above .750 in their first year in the bigs, much less the .775-.800 necessary to be as good or better than Bell. And that's before look at what were getting get out of the DH spot with some sort of rotation.

We don't need top lose Bell to give plenty of ABs to the OFs. These guys don't have to play 160  games to get a shot, nor should they. No one plays that much for a reason - for most guys it limits their effectiveness because they are playing dinged up or exhausted. The sweet spot for most players is 140-150 games, 500-550 ABS. You also have to add in the fact the Jenkins and EmRod are both LH and haven't really hit LH pitching so well in the Minors so we might want to protect them against quality LHs as they adapt to the Majors. By the way, as young players, watching from the bench occasionally actually helps them learn something and adapt.  We don't need to keep the DH spot open so the big 4 OFs get enough playing time. The 3 OF spots give them plenty of playing time, especially with Buxton on the IL for at least 20-30 games a year. 

DocBauer has identified the most likely 4 OFs with Larnach traded. I think Martin also will be on the team as the RH OF starting against LH pitching and occasional pinch runner. At 4.5ish PAs a spot, there are roughly 730 PAS per OF spot, 2190 for the season. Buxton will play 120 games in the OF if we're lucky. This year has been a good one for him on injuries and he has 375 PAs now and is likely to finish with below 500 PAs, maybe below 475. Martin takes 200-225 as the RH OF. That leaves 1500-1550 OF PAs for the other 3 guys plus an occasional day at DH (Bell won't play very day). In short, there will be 500 plus PAs for Keaschall, Jenkins and EmRod even if they don't ever DH, with another 20-25 from the DH spot the more likely result. That's 550 plus PAs, 500 plus ABs per guy. And that's assuming they earn them or we divide them evenly. More likely Keaschall earns 600 plus PAs, with Jenkins and EmRod earning more like 450-500 PAs in their first year IF things go well.  

The whole point of this diatribe is that we don't need to starve ourselves of a good hitting DH that we already have to free up ABs for two young guys who may or may not actually perform. What we need to do is play the best players that can help us produce the most runs so that we can take the next step from this year's team into a truly contending team next year. If Jenkins and EmRod each get 450 to 500 PAs next year as their first taste of the Majors and actually perform decently that would be a major development coup for the Twins. They are not going to come up and be high performing everyday MLB players their first year at ages 22 and 24, respectively, unless we are incredibly lucky. People point to Milwaukee as a great development organization. Jackson Chourio is probably better than either Jenkins or Emma but let's say they're even and both play the same way he did in his first year. Wow, that would be great and it's pretty damn unlikely. Chourio had 528 ABs in his first year, 557 PAs, in 148 games for 3.75 PAs per game played. That means he didn't play 148 full games, more like 130-135 or so full games another 10 – 15 where he met Kukla Dr. started but was subbed out against a tough relief pitcher, came in during the late innings, pinch ran, pinch-hit, etc. We can keep Josh Bell as a full-time DH starting 150 games a year, still give BOTH Jenkins and Emma at least that much playing time, AND get 20+ HR's and 80+ RBIs from a guy who can hit in the four or five spot and is making roughly $10 million year. Why on earth wouldn't we do that? This is a no-brainer.

Let's not overthink this. We don't need the DH spot to create ABs for Jenkins and Emma. For create those ABs, what we need to do is trade Larnach and either trade or demote Roden. I think a LArnach trade is likely and if we don't trade Roden in the off-season, he will fight it out in Spring Training one of these two spots and either win the spot or get demoted to AAA. We don't need an open DH spot for any of this.

[Possumlad]

55 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Guys, I think we already know what's going to happen. Next year's Opening Day DH is ... Josh Bell. Not only is that the likely answer, it's the right answer. Absent injury, he's going to finish this year with 20 plus HRs, 90 plus RBIs, and a slash line of roughly .260/.325/.435 (or better). Bell is our best run producer this year, likely to be one of our best next year, and he's already shown us that he will be one of if not the best clutch bat we have down the stretch. He's an experienced bat who can hit 4 or 5 in a contending team's lineup aginst both RH and LH pitching with neutral platoon splits. He's a leader and well liked in the clubhouse. He likes it here. We don't need another bench glove with the versatility of Kriedler and Clemens so we can carry a full time DH who can fill in at 1B in a pinch. There is a mutual option at $10m with a $1.25m buy out so his real cost is $8.75m with the option. The Twins are likely to exercise their half of the option if only to avoid the buy out cost and I doubt if he will get offered much more than $10m anywhere else. Bell just makes too much sense to be gone unless he gets a big money offer elsewhere OR we think all 3 of Keaschall, Jenkins and EmRod are going to hit better than Bell and the DH rotation will provide more than 20 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a .775- .800 OPS. Keaschall looks like a likely yes, but the other 2 - who knows? They are pretty unlikely to have an OPS above .750 in their first year in the bigs, much less the .775-.800 necessary to be as good or better than Bell. And that's before look at what were getting get out of the DH spot with some sort of rotation.

We don't need top lose Bell to give plenty of ABs to the OFs. These guys don't have to play 160  games to get a shot, nor should they. No one plays that much for a reason - for most guys it limits their effectiveness because they are playing dinged up or exhausted. The sweet spot for most players is 140-150 games, 500-550 ABS. You also have to add in the fact the Jenkins and EmRod are both LH and haven't really hit LH pitching so well in the Minors so we might want to protect them against quality LHs as they adapt to the Majors. By the way, as young players, watching from the bench occasionally actually helps them learn something and adapt.  We don't need to keep the DH spot open so the big 4 OFs get enough playing time. The 3 OF spots give them plenty of playing time, especially with Buxton on the IL for at least 20-30 games a year. 

DocBauer has identified the most likely 4 OFs with Larnach traded. I think Martin also will be on the team as the RH OF starting against LH pitching and occasional pinch runner. At 4.5ish PAs a spot, there are roughly 730 PAS per OF spot, 2190 for the season. Buxton will play 120 games in the OF if we're lucky. This year has been a good one for him on injuries and he has 375 PAs now and is likely to finish with below 500 PAs, maybe below 475. Martin takes 200-225 as the RH OF. That leaves 1500-1550 OF PAs for the other 3 guys plus an occasional day at DH (Bell won't play very day). In short, there will be 500 plus PAs for Keaschall, Jenkins and EmRod even if they don't ever DH, with another 20-25 from the DH spot the more likely result. That's 550 plus PAs, 500 plus ABs per guy. And that's assuming they earn them or we divide them evenly. More likely Keaschall earns 600 plus PAs, with Jenkins and EmRod earning more like 450-500 PAs in their first year IF things go well.  

The whole point of this diatribe is that we don't need to starve ourselves of a good hitting DH that we already have to free up ABs for two young guys who may or may not actually perform. What we need to do is play the best players that can help us produce the most runs so that we can take the next step from this year's team into a truly contending team next year. If Jenkins and EmRod each get 450 to 500 PAs next year as their first taste of the Majors and actually perform decently that would be a major development coup for the Twins. They are not going to come up and be high performing everyday MLB players their first year at ages 22 and 24, respectively, unless we are incredibly lucky. People point to Milwaukee as a great development organization. Jackson Chourio is probably better than either Jenkins or Emma but let's say they're even and both play the same way he did in his first year. Wow, that would be great and it's pretty damn unlikely. Chourio had 528 ABs in his first year, 557 PAs, in 148 games for 3.75 PAs per game played. That means he didn't play 148 full games, more like 130-135 or so full games another 10 – 15 where he met Kukla Dr. started but was subbed out against a tough relief pitcher, came in during the late innings, pinch ran, pinch-hit, etc. We can keep Josh Bell as a full-time DH starting 150 games a year, still give BOTH Jenkins and Emma at least that much playing time, AND get 20+ HR's and 80+ RBIs from a guy who can hit in the four or five spot and is making roughly $10 million year. Why on earth wouldn't we do that? This is a no-brainer.

Let's not overthink this. We don't need the DH spot to create ABs for Jenkins and Emma. For create those ABs, what we need to do is trade Larnach and either trade or demote Roden. I think a LArnach trade is likely and if we don't trade Roden in the off-season, he will fight it out in Spring Training one of these two spots and either win the spot or get demoted to AAA. We don't need an open DH spot for any of this.

I think there's close to a zero % chance Bell is on the roster next year. He was a one-year stop-gap, and we have plenty of ABs to distribute next year. Someone will pay him more on another one-year deal than we would.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Guys, I think we already know what's going to happen. Next year's Opening Day DH is ... Josh Bell. Not only is that the likely answer, it's the right answer. Absent injury, he's going to finish this year with 20 plus HRs, 90 plus RBIs, and a slash line of roughly .260/.325/.435 (or better). Bell is our best run producer this year, likely to be one of our best next year, and he's already shown us that he will be one of if not the best clutch bat we have down the stretch. He's an experienced bat who can hit 4 or 5 in a contending team's lineup aginst both RH and LH pitching with neutral platoon splits. He's a leader and well liked in the clubhouse. He likes it here. We don't need another bench glove with the versatility of Kriedler and Clemens so we can carry a full time DH who can fill in at 1B in a pinch. There is a mutual option at $10m with a $1.25m buy out so his real cost is $8.75m with the option. The Twins are likely to exercise their half of the option if only to avoid the buy out cost and I doubt if he will get offered much more than $10m anywhere else. Bell just makes too much sense to be gone unless he gets a big money offer elsewhere OR we think all 3 of Keaschall, Jenkins and EmRod are going to hit better than Bell and the DH rotation will provide more than 20 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a .775- .800 OPS. Keaschall looks like a likely yes, but the other 2 - who knows? They are pretty unlikely to have an OPS above .750 in their first year in the bigs, much less the .775-.800 necessary to be as good or better than Bell. And that's before look at what were getting get out of the DH spot with some sort of rotation.

We don't need top lose Bell to give plenty of ABs to the OFs. These guys don't have to play 160  games to get a shot, nor should they. No one plays that much for a reason - for most guys it limits their effectiveness because they are playing dinged up or exhausted. The sweet spot for most players is 140-150 games, 500-550 ABS. You also have to add in the fact the Jenkins and EmRod are both LH and haven't really hit LH pitching so well in the Minors so we might want to protect them against quality LHs as they adapt to the Majors. By the way, as young players, watching from the bench occasionally actually helps them learn something and adapt.  We don't need to keep the DH spot open so the big 4 OFs get enough playing time. The 3 OF spots give them plenty of playing time, especially with Buxton on the IL for at least 20-30 games a year. 

DocBauer has identified the most likely 4 OFs with Larnach traded. I think Martin also will be on the team as the RH OF starting against LH pitching and occasional pinch runner. At 4.5ish PAs a spot, there are roughly 730 PAS per OF spot, 2190 for the season. Buxton will play 120 games in the OF if we're lucky. This year has been a good one for him on injuries and he has 375 PAs now and is likely to finish with below 500 PAs, maybe below 475. Martin takes 200-225 as the RH OF. That leaves 1500-1550 OF PAs for the other 3 guys plus an occasional day at DH (Bell won't play very day). In short, there will be 500 plus PAs for Keaschall, Jenkins and EmRod even if they don't ever DH, with another 20-25 from the DH spot the more likely result. That's 550 plus PAs, 500 plus ABs per guy. And that's assuming they earn them or we divide them evenly. More likely Keaschall earns 600 plus PAs, with Jenkins and EmRod earning more like 450-500 PAs in their first year IF things go well.  

The whole point of this diatribe is that we don't need to starve ourselves of a good hitting DH that we already have to free up ABs for two young guys who may or may not actually perform. What we need to do is play the best players that can help us produce the most runs so that we can take the next step from this year's team into a truly contending team next year. If Jenkins and EmRod each get 450 to 500 PAs next year as their first taste of the Majors and actually perform decently that would be a major development coup for the Twins. They are not going to come up and be high performing everyday MLB players their first year at ages 22 and 24, respectively, unless we are incredibly lucky. People point to Milwaukee as a great development organization. Jackson Chourio is probably better than either Jenkins or Emma but let's say they're even and both play the same way he did in his first year. Wow, that would be great and it's pretty damn unlikely. Chourio had 528 ABs in his first year, 557 PAs, in 148 games for 3.75 PAs per game played. That means he didn't play 148 full games, more like 130-135 or so full games another 10 – 15 where he met Kukla Dr. started but was subbed out against a tough relief pitcher, came in during the late innings, pinch ran, pinch-hit, etc. We can keep Josh Bell as a full-time DH starting 150 games a year, still give BOTH Jenkins and Emma at least that much playing time, AND get 20+ HR's and 80+ RBIs from a guy who can hit in the four or five spot and is making roughly $10 million year. Why on earth wouldn't we do that? This is a no-brainer.

Let's not overthink this. We don't need the DH spot to create ABs for Jenkins and Emma. For create those ABs, what we need to do is trade Larnach and either trade or demote Roden. I think a LArnach trade is likely and if we don't trade Roden in the off-season, he will fight it out in Spring Training one of these two spots and either win the spot or get demoted to AAA. We don't need an open DH spot for any of this.

Bell is league average in most stats and is very streaky.  We weren't having this conversation in July when he was struggling.  I find it interesting that Lee has 10 fewer RBI's and one more HR, his OPS is a littler lower but not by a considerable amount, but yet I keep hearing he needs to hit better to stay at third.  Bell has the majority at bats hitting the 3-5 spots in the lineup, while Lee has been mostly in the bottom 4 spots of the lineup.  Some of Bell's RBI's are because of where he is hitting.

Bell has done better than I expected this year, but I don't think he is irreplaceable, quite the opposite he should be replaced and give those at bats to others.

[LA Vikes Fan]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Bell is league average in most stats and is very streaky.  We weren't having this conversation in July when he was struggling.  I find it interesting that Lee has 10 fewer RBI's and one more HR, his OPS is a littler lower but not by a considerable amount, but yet I keep hearing he needs to hit better to stay at third.  Bell has the majority at bats hitting the 3-5 spots in the lineup, while Lee has been mostly in the bottom 4 spots of the lineup.  Some of Bell's RBI's are because of where he is hitting.

Bell has done better than I expected this year, but I don't think he is irreplaceable, quite the opposite he should be replaced and give those at bats to others.

I never suggested Bell was irreplaceable and wasn't clear if that was what you got from my post. My point is we don't need to get rid of Bell or another guy like him so that we can get available ABs for both Jenkins and Emma next year. Bell is definitely replaceable with another guy will give us 20+ HR's and 80+ RBIs from the middle of the order with a strikeout rate below 30% (Bell's is 28%). We do not have that guy on the current roster and it is very unlikely that any of the guys currently in AAA will be that guy in 2027. I do not subscribe to be frothy belief that some appear to have that both Jenkins and Emma will come up next year and hit better than Bell. That certainly could happen, but it's not likely that even one of the two will do that, and it's highly unlikely that both will.

I saw another post where people suggested replacing Bell in 2027 with Yandy Diaz. That would be great! I'm all in favor of getting a bat better than Bell to be the primary DH. I don't see a whole lot of them out there other than Diaz but maybe there is someone who could come in and take that spot. I'm fine with jettisoning Larnach for Jenkins over the winter, and wish they had done that at the trade deadline like they tried to do. I'm just not in favor of jettisoning a productive player to try to create ABs for a guy in AAA on the blissful assumption the new guy will be as good or better. They're usually not as good, and are often times much worse. Besides, if we trade Larnach over the winter there will be spots for two of Jenkins, Emma, and Roden on next year's roster. The two that make it will get significant opportunities with the major league club in 2027. 

[Mike Sixel]

We'll never know if they hit better if they never come up because they night not be better. And who says they'll be better day one? That's a serious straw man. 

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I never suggested Bell was irreplaceable and wasn't clear if that was what you got from my post. My point is we don't need to get rid of Bell or another guy like him so that we can get available ABs for both Jenkins and Emma next year. Bell is definitely replaceable with another guy will give us 20+ HR's and 80+ RBIs from the middle of the order with a strikeout rate below 30% (Bell's is 28%). We do not have that guy on the current roster and it is very unlikely that any of the guys currently in AAA will be that guy in 2027. I do not subscribe to be frothy belief that some appear to have that both Jenkins and Emma will come up next year and hit better than Bell. It certainly could happen, but it's not likely that even one of the two will do that, and it's highly unlikely that both will.

I saw another post where people suggested replacing Bell basically with Yandy Diaz. That would be great! I'm all in favor of getting a bat better than Bell to be the primary DH. I don't see a whole lot of them out there other than Diaz but maybe there is someone who could come in and take that spot. I'm fine with jettisoning Larnach for Jenkins over the winter, and wish they had done that at the trade deadline like they tried to do. I'm not in favor of jettisoning a productive player to try to create ABs for a guy in AAA on the blissful assumption the new guy will be as good or better. They're usually not as good, and are often times much worse. Besides, if we trade Larnach over the winter there will be spots for two of Jenkins, Emma, and Roden on next year's roster. The two that make it will get significant opportunities with the major league club in 2027. 

Using the word irreplaceable was not the right way to phrase it.  I realize that Jenkins and ERod may not have the production of Bell next but quite honestly they could, we don't know.  Even if it is a low probability.  As I have tried to say some of Bell's RBI's are due to opportunity by hitting in the middle of the order, I would hope he would have 100 by the end of the year but I don't think he will make it.

I would prefer to keep the DH spot open and not have a bat first guy in that position.  It would be nice to have a rotating spot not just for the outfielders but for other players to have a half day off.  If Clemens is going to be more of a utility guy, he could play in the field for Lee or Lewis and they could DH that day as an example.

I like the name of Diaz but they haven't played him in the field at all this year and Arranda is not exactly a Gold Glove first baseman.

I like Bell better than I sound, but that feels another stopgap. They have talked about using the DH as a rotating spot so commit to that.

[mrmpls]

17 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

All the reporting at the time of the signing said Bell was signed to play 1B and Clemens would slide into a utility role.  I believe Falvey even came out and said this.  Their plan was to rotate the DH position.  Just because Bell can't play 1B doesn't mean they didn't sign him to play 1B.  His signing was to replace France.

 His signing was to replace France.---   see what TY is doin now , happy for him  except for this weekend

[mrmpls]

15 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I never suggested Bell was irreplaceable and wasn't clear if that was what you got from my post. My point is we don't need to get rid of Bell or another guy like him so that we can get available ABs for both Jenkins and Emma next year. Bell is definitely replaceable with another guy will give us 20+ HR's and 80+ RBIs from the middle of the order with a strikeout rate below 30% (Bell's is 28%). We do not have that guy on the current roster and it is very unlikely that any of the guys currently in AAA will be that guy in 2027. I do not subscribe to be frothy belief that some appear to have that both Jenkins and Emma will come up next year and hit better than Bell. That certainly could happen, but it's not likely that even one of the two will do that, and it's highly unlikely that both will.

I saw another post where people suggested replacing Bell in 2027 with Yandy Diaz. That would be great! I'm all in favor of getting a bat better than Bell to be the primary DH. I don't see a whole lot of them out there other than Diaz but maybe there is someone who could come in and take that spot. I'm fine with jettisoning Larnach for Jenkins over the winter, and wish they had done that at the trade deadline like they tried to do. I'm just not in favor of jettisoning a productive player to try to create ABs for a guy in AAA on the blissful assumption the new guy will be as good or better. They're usually not as good, and are often times much worse. Besides, if we trade Larnach over the winter there will be spots for two of Jenkins, Emma, and Roden on next year's roster. The two that make it will get significant opportunities with the major league club in 2027. 

 replacing Bell in 2027 with Yandy Diaz. --  no

[strumdatjag]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If we have free agent dollars to spend. It should be spent on infield or pitching. 

We will have Buxton, Larnach, Keaschall, Martin, Jenkins, Erod, Wallner, Roden and even Mendez as potential OF options.

Granted there will be trades and player movement but we will need to use that DH space to maximize utilization on all options because none of them should be glued to the bench. 

Once the CBA issues are resolved (and who knows when), some of that outfield (and catching) depth should be traded to bolster positions of need.