Zebby Matthews’ Foot Injury Could Force Twins Into a Bullpen Decision

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are in a tricky position as they try to remain on the fringes of the American League playoff race. Every roster decision carries additional weight, especially when it involves a young pitcher who could help the team in multiple roles. Zebby Matthews currently occupies one of the five spots in Minnesota's starting rotation. But there is a growing argument that his best opportunity to help the Twins down the stretch might come in the bullpen.

The question isn't necessarily whether Matthews can move to the bullpen. The Twins could make that decision at any point. The bigger question is whether they should make it now. His body might be starting to provide the answer.

Matthews Can't Escape His Foot Problems

Matthews' ongoing foot issues continue to complicate his season, and there doesn't appear to be an easy solution. After taking the mound to warm up for the sixth inning on Friday, Matthews exited his start when the blister on his right foot began bleeding. It was the same issue that ended his July 4 outing at Yankee Stadium.

"That mound in New York was rock-hard because of how hot it was, and he ripped it open," Derek Shelton said. "We're trying to laser it to get it to the point where it's manageable. It's manageable, but the wear and tear of multiple pitches rips it off."

The Twins have attempted to find solutions. Matthews is wearing a pitching toe, an application designed to protect the shoe from wearing through as he drags his foot across the dirt. Unfortunately, the problem keeps returning. Matthews summed up his frustration simply: "We keep covering it, and it keeps ripping."

That is a difficult problem for a starting pitcher. Matthews has to take the mound every fifth day, leaving very little time for the injury to heal completely. Instead, he has been forced to pitch through it and hope he can make it through his outing. At some point, the Twins have to consider whether repeatedly asking him to pitch every fifth day is doing more harm than good.

When Can the Twins Make the Move?

The good news for Minnesota is that there are several paths to moving Matthews into the bullpen. The simplest could come when Joe Ryan returns from his glute strain. Ryan's return could open the door for Matthews to transition into a relief role without forcing the Twins to completely reshape their rotation. There are no guarantees Ryan, who reportedly played catch on flat ground earlier this week, will immediately be ready to take on a full workload, but his return would give Minnesota another established starting option.

There are other possibilities, too. Minnesota could use Matthews and Connor Prielipp in a piggyback arrangement. One pitcher could handle the first few innings before handing the ball to the other, allowing the Twins to manage both workloads while reducing the pressure on Matthews to consistently complete five or six innings.

The Twins could also simply decide that Matthews' stuff plays better in shorter bursts and move him into a traditional relief role. From a roster standpoint, the Twins have options.

When Should the Twins Make the Move?

This is where things get more complicated. Matthews' arsenal makes a bullpen transition intriguing even without the foot problems. He has been significantly better the first time through a lineup, allowing a .780 OPS, compared to a .854 OPS the second time batters see him. That's not unusual for a young starting pitcher, but it highlights why his stuff could become more dangerous in a relief role.

He also has the type of fastball that could benefit from a little extra velocity. Matthews' four-seam fastball averages 95.2 mph. If a move to the bullpen allows him to push that number higher, even by a couple of ticks, it could make his entire arsenal more effective. That could be especially important considering he's allowed a .505 slugging percentage this season.

His slider provides another reason to be intrigued. Matthews throws the pitch more than 20% of the time, and it has produced a 34.5% whiff rate. That's the kind of pitch that could become a major weapon when Matthews doesn't have to worry about conserving it for a longer outing.

He has used six pitches this season. As a starter, that versatility is valuable. As a reliever, it might be unnecessary. The Twins could ask Matthews to simplify his approach. Throw his best fastball. Throw his best slider. Mix in whatever else is necessary. Attack hitters knowing he doesn't have to face the same lineup three times.

That could turn Matthews into a very different pitcher. And potentially a very effective one.

Is It Already Too Late?

This is where the playoff race enters the equation. The Twins aren't in a position where they can casually sacrifice innings. Every game matters, and the rotation still needs dependable arms.

If Ryan returns healthy, the decision becomes easier. If Ryan isn't ready, Minnesota may need Matthews to remain stretched out. If Ryan struggles after returning, the Twins might also decide they can't afford to remove another starting option from the rotation.

But the foot injury changes the equation. If Matthews continues to rip open the same injury every time he takes the mound, the Twins need to ask whether keeping him in the rotation is actually helping the team. There is little value in having Matthews available as a starter if he can't consistently get through his outings.

A healthy Matthews throwing two or three high-quality innings out of the bullpen could ultimately provide more value than an injured Matthews trying to grind through five innings every fifth day. That might be the most important consideration of all.

Minnesota has already had to ask a lot from Matthews this season because of its pitching injuries. Now, with the playoff race tightening and his foot refusing to cooperate, the Twins need to determine whether continuing to use him as a starter is the best for the player and the team. 

With Matthews scheduled to start today's series finale against Baltimore, we may have a clearer idea of the best path forward.

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When should the Twins move Zebby Matthews to the bullpen? Is it already too late? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Here's hoping Mathews will continue to toe the rubber and put his best foot forward.

[tony&rodney]

Matthews needs to be able to go 5-7 innings. If he is removed or ineffective due to the injury today, he will be replaced by Kendry Rojas next time his spot comes up in the rotation. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

The big questions not addressed in the post is who replaces Matthews in the rotation if Ryan isn't ready, and then who replaces Prielipp when he reaches his innings limit in about 2-3 more starts. We are quickly running out of starters. 

Rojas could be one to replace or team up with Matthews. He went 4 innings last night, 1 hit, 1 run (the hit was a HR). He only threw 57 pitches. He probably needs at least one more MiLB start to even get to the 70-80 pitches he'll need to cover 5 innings. He and Matthews could be a piggy back and we could to 7 in the BP, with Adams going back to AAA. Ryan could then replace Prielipp after another couple of turns, with Prielipp in the BP. That might work if Kremer continues to be the second coming of Pablo Lopez (or even the second coming of Kenta Maeda) and Ober can somehow get his 87 MPH fastball based arsenal past MLB hitters.  There is no more help coming from St. Paul. Roznek got hammered last time out, Gallagher has a 5.50 ERA. and Baker a 5.40 ERA. Jack Anderson looks like the most promising arm after Rojas and he's been pitching short relief.  The waiver wire and FA guys are not good, not good at all. This will be interesting to navigate and if we get another injury get ready for a lot of opener/bulk kind of games.  

[Bodie]

Nolan Ryan would recommend pickle brine for blister management. 

If you think that sounds bad,  remember that his remedy was a replacement for "pi$$ on it" (literally).

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

who replaces Matthews in the rotation if Ryan isn't ready, and then who replaces Prielipp when he reaches his innings limit

This seems predictable but not necessarily a done deal. Kendry Rojas will replace Zebby Matthews if Matthews cannot pitch 5-7+ innings due to injury. Prielipp is good to go for the remainder of the year if he keeps looking like he has in the past month. There is zero sign of fatigue. Prielipp is learning as he goes along. The Twins will continue to skip a day for him when the schedule permits. It looks like the longest stretch coming is 13 games in 13 days in September just before the last series of the season at Target Field. In September the Twins get a 14th pitcher. By then, either Matthews issues with his feet have cleared up or he becomes a relief pitcher as the 14th pitcher. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This seems predictable but not necessarily a done deal. Kendry Rojas will replace Zebby Matthews if Matthews cannot pitch 5-7+ innings due to injury. Prielipp is good to go for the remainder of the year if he keeps looking like he has in the past month. There is zero sign of fatigue. Prielipp is learning as he goes along. The Twins will continue to skip a day for him when the schedule permits. It looks like the longest stretch coming is 13 games in 13 days in September just before the last series of the season at Target Field. In September the Twins get a 14th pitcher. By then, either Matthews issues with his feet have cleared up or he becomes a relief pitcher as the 14th pitcher. 

Good point. I think we've all heard so much about Prielipp's inning limit that we just assume he'll max out at about 100-110 innings. He's actually at 82.2 now with 41 games left, which would be 7-8 starts for him. That's 40-50 innings and if you maneuver it a little so he only gets 6 starts, closer to 35 innings. That he should be able to do without having to be replaced in the rotation. Might be the best solution.  

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Good point. I think we've all heard so much about Prielipp's inning limit that we just assume he'll max out at about 100-110 innings. He's actually at 82.2 now with 41 games left, which would be 7-8 starts for him. That's 40-50 innings and if you maneuver it a little so he only gets 6 starts, closer to 35 innings. That he should be able to do without having to be replaced in the rotation. Might be the best solution.  

If the Twins pitch Prielipp every 5 starts (they haven't been doing that), and he remains healthy, he'd get 8 more starts.

I don't think it's reasonable to assume he'd average more than 5.5 innings per start, so that'd place him in the 40-44 more innings range.

I don't understand the max of 100 innings or where it comes from. I don't see strong indications the Twins have an active plan in place to limit Prielipp's innings. There does seem to be a reduction in pitch count recently, but Prielipp hasn't failed to go 5.0+ innings since June 7th.

[Dman]

33 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Good point. I think we've all heard so much about Prielipp's inning limit that we just assume he'll max out at about 100-110 innings. He's actually at 82.2 now with 41 games left, which would be 7-8 starts for him. That's 40-50 innings and if you maneuver it a little so he only gets 6 starts, closer to 35 innings. That he should be able to do without having to be replaced in the rotation. Might be the best solution.  

I agree.  I think they will be monitoring Prielipp's arm very closely. If he has any kind soreness or twinge he's likely done sooner rather than later.  I'd think they will try to keep it around the 100 innings you suggest.  We'll see where they and he are at that last month.  If they are out of the race the calculus might change.

[1985Fan]

You really can’t have enough pitching…. Gallagher is the highest rated pitching prospect at AAA. He’s had a couple of successful outings recently as pointed out by TD Prospect Hot Sheet. He could give them a start or two if all else fails. It’s looking thin for SP with Ryan injured, Ober getting hit, and Prielipp ready to hit a wall. Good thing they traded for Kremer. Sounds like they were in on Soriano, but couldn’t get it done. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Actually Gallagher is starting to ease some worries by looking like a legitimate MLB option with his last 4 starts looking very good.  Yes the ERA for the year is high - but that doesn't show how he is performing in the present moment.  Rojas is getting work in to I think be starting pitcher more permanently.  This is good for his long term value and likely in the best interest of the team as well now that we got more reliable arms in the bullpen.  

Jack Anderson is becoming a great swiss army knife.  He is an arm that has shown reliability as a bullpen arm but has also been a starting pitcher as well at AAA.   He is an excellent insurance policy for either the bullpen or starting pitching.   
 

I think the concerns on Priellips innings limit are overblown for the regular season.  It becomes a bigger question if we have an extended playoff run.   

[nicksaviking]

"But there is a growing argument that his best opportunity to help the Twins down the stretch might come in the bullpen."

I don't think it's a growing argument; it's fully matured and aged well beyond adulthood. Matthews should have been in the pen no later than when pitchers and catchers reported this past spring. 

If Matthews as a one inning pitcher had jumped his velocity from 96 MPH to 99 MPH on his four seamer, while working in his slider and curveball and dropping his ineffective changeup and sinker, the bullpen might not have looked so dreadful the first half of the year.

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, Bodie said:

Nolan Ryan would recommend pickle brine for blister management. 

If you think that sounds bad,  remember that his remedy was a replacement for "pi$$ on it" (literally).

Would that be kosher dill or sweet gherkin?

[nicksaviking]

39 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

You really can’t have enough pitching…. 

But this is where I think front offices run into a fallacy about depth. Because the team thinks the rotation NEEDS to keep Matthews, or Festa last year or the numerous bad vets like or Matt Schumacher or J.A. Happ or Dallas Keuchel because there just aren't enough arms in the system without them. But you don't need this kind of depth in the system because the production (or lack thereof) these guys are providing is no different than picking up Carlos Carrasco or Martin Perez or Joe Blow off of the waiver wire to be sacrificial inning eaters.