The Twins Should Be Glad They Didn't Trade for Zach Neto at the Deadline

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The trade deadline has officially come and gone, and the Minnesota Twins walked away with three new arms to bolster their pitching staff. But while those were the moves that ultimately got done, there was another name that generated plenty of buzz throughout deadline day. It just never crossed the finish line.

According to Bob Nightengale, the Twins were "all over" Angels shortstop Zach Neto leading up to the deadline. It was an interesting report considering there had been very little linking Minnesota to Neto in the days and weeks beforehand.

On the surface, it's easy to understand why fans would've been excited. Neto is a young, controllable shortstop with legitimate power and speed, and adding a player of that caliber would've been one of the biggest splashes the Twins could've made. But as intriguing as the idea sounded, I think Minnesota dodged a bullet by not completing that trade.

There's no denying Neto has developed into a quality major league player with the Angels. Across 476 career games, he's put together a .754 OPS and a 110 OPS+, while launching 77 home runs and stealing another 75 bases. That combination of power and athleticism has helped him quickly establish himself as Los Angeles' everyday leadoff hitter. Players capable of contributing 20-plus home runs while also providing impact on the bases don't exactly grow on trees. That's the appeal.

But once you dig a little deeper into his profile, some pretty significant concerns begin to appear. The biggest issue comes with his approach at the plate. His whiff rate and strikeout rate both rank in the ninth percentile or lower among all qualified major league hitters. That's an alarming combination, especially for someone expected to be setting the table near the top of a lineup. His chase rate sits in the 14th percentile, meaning he's consistently expanding the strike zone and offering at pitches he probably shouldn't. Even though he's already hitting just .230 this season, the underlying metrics suggest things could actually be worse. His expected batting average sits all the way down at .202.

Now, to be fair, expected batting average isn't everything. Neto intentionally sells out for pull-side power, and hitters with that approach often see their expected numbers suffer because they're trading contact quality for home run production. But it also reinforces a larger point. Neto isn't a particularly well-rounded offensive player. When the power is there, he's an exciting player to watch. But when the extra-base hits aren't coming, there isn't much else in his offensive profile to fall back on.

The concerns don't stop once he takes the field, either. Despite possessing above-average athleticism and solid quickness, Neto's defensive metrics have consistently graded out poorly. He ranks in just the second percentile in Outs Above Average this season, making him one of the least effective defensive shortstops in baseball by that metric. More importantly, this isn't simply a down year. He's ranked in the bottom tenth of the league defensively during each of his three full major league seasons. There's certainly arm strength there, and that has led some to believe third base could ultimately be his best long-term position. But that brings us to perhaps the biggest issue of all: the acquisition cost.

Neto is only 25 years old and remains under team control through the end of the 2029 season. Players with that combination of age, production and years of control don’t come cheap. Yes, the Twins have built one of baseball's deeper minor league systems, but even organizations with strong farm systems have to be careful about which prospects they move. Trading away one of your top prospects for a player with clear offensive flaws, below-average defense and a hefty acquisition cost is far from a slam dunk - especially when two of those top prospects are also shortstops. That's an unnecessary gamble, and judging by the fact a deal never materialized, it may have been one the Twins ultimately weren't comfortable making.

Would adding Zach Neto have created plenty of excitement on deadline day? Absolutely. He's a recognizable name, he's young, and he's capable of producing highlight-reel moments. But excitement doesn't always equal the right baseball decision. When you weigh the swing-and-miss concerns, the defensive limitations and, perhaps most importantly, the likely prospect package it would've taken to get him, the risk starts to outweigh the reward.

The Twins certainly improved their roster at the deadline by strengthening their pitching staff. And while some fans may wonder what could've been had Neto ended up in Minnesota, there's a strong argument that the best move the front office made was the one it didn't make. Passing on Zach Neto may not have generated the biggest headlines, but in the long run, it might prove to be one of the smartest decisions the Twins made all week.

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[tony&rodney]

Yah, I'm not buying that the Twins were "all in" on Neto. The Twins made numerous changes to their defense this season. Where was Neto going to play? He is somewhere between Tristan Gray and Brooks Lee as a shortstop and a speedy Matt Wallner at the plate. He is a DH. Maybe the Twins asked and were willing to trade Rodriguez, but those who put a high value on Neto haven't watched him play. When this rumor came out I saw it as nonsense. Neto is not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield.

[Craig Arko]

And Hunter Greene.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, I'm not buying that the Twins were "all in" on Neto. The Twins made numerous changes to their defense this season. Where was Neto going to play? He is somewhere between Tristan Gray and Brooks Lee as a shortstop and a speedy Matt Wallner at the plate. He is a DH. Maybe the Twins asked and were willing to trade Rodriguez, but those who put a high value on Neto haven't watched him play. When this rumor came out I saw it as nonsense. Neto is not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield.

Would he have helped the offense? Yes. At the expense of losing Jenkins I think this trade would’ve been a mistake. Neto is solid now but defensively I can’t plug him in when Culpepper and Houston are in the mix. Just not a good fit either way you look at it.

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, I'm not buying that the Twins were "all in" on Neto. The Twins made numerous changes to their defense this season. Where was Neto going to play? He is somewhere between Tristan Gray and Brooks Lee as a shortstop and a speedy Matt Wallner at the plate. He is a DH. Maybe the Twins asked and were willing to trade Rodriguez, but those who put a high value on Neto haven't watched him play. When this rumor came out I saw it as nonsense. Neto is not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield.

Lol, not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield?!?! This Twins team loves players like that we have several on the roster currently...

[Hunter4848]

Being unable to part with prospects for proven big league talent is why the Twins are mired in mediocrity 

[thelanges5]

Not the guy to go all-in on. Especially with Culpepper and Houston on the team. Twins need a Nelson Cruz replacement. Someone you can park in the three or four spot that consistently produces. Those types are expensive, but this lineup needs it.

A guy like Yandy Diaz might fit the bill this offseason. 

[old nurse]

The Twins were unlikely to include Jenkins, Quick, either of their top SS or catcher prospects in proposed trades. The rest of the controllable players and prospects would be up for grabs.  4 of them were not going to equal Neto

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

Lol, not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield?!?! This Twins team loves players like that we have several on the roster currently...

Perhaps you were not aware that Brooks Lee was moved to third base and Tristan Gray is now in AAA. Ryan Kreidler is a solid average to slightly above average shortstop but he doesn't really hit enough so he is really a utility player. It is far too early to make a judgment on Kaelen Culpepper. I watched him play dozens of times in the minor leagues and while he is not a finished shortstop he has good range and an excellent arm. He is a solid couple of grades above Neto on the defensive spectrum. You won't find a baseball person to disagree with that statement.  Clemens is a better middle infielder than Neto. Neto can run and Neto can slug. His K-rate is above 30%. The Twins are making moves to improve the defense and athleticism of the team. I have no idea where Neto would play on a decent team. The Angels? They should look to the future. 

If you have the time and are able to do so, watch Milwaukee play. They have a little bit of a problem hitting home runs but their defense is really good, they run the bases well, and pitch. Currently they have the best record in baseball. The Twins would like to move in that direction but also have a few players who can hit the ball over the fence. Neto would never fit on the Brewers team unless he was a DH and even then I wonder if that 30%+ K-rate would be acceptable to Pat Murphy. 

 

[laloesch]

I’m just glad this deal wasn’t made. It would have been a massive mistake 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have struggled to "hit" on big trades for bats. It is really difficult to find a team that is willing to send away a top bat. This is understandable. There are often comments about the Twins holding prospects at the expense of potentially adding players currently in the major leagues. The best prospects are almost always looked at with outsized expectations and hopes. Why? All solid MLB players and the stars were once prospects. These guys struggle when they arrive, learn, and find success. Some come crashing down when the league adjusts to them. Anthony Volpe could do no wrong until recently. He may never stand at shortstop again for the Yankees. George Lombard Jr. arrived with plenty of questions but he has shown himself to be rangy in the field with a rocket arm and the bat has pop. Prospects are suspects for many people but talent is the way to go. The wish and hope is to find players who play really good defense, can run, and hit. Hopefully a few of these guys hit with power. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay are the models for what this looks like but there is a world where some team follows that lead and adds power to the list.

Perhaps the Twins could manage a few huge (one might be enough) transactions this winter. Gamble type transactions are not that common. The trick will be to find an organization that covets something the Twins have and that same team has a player or two that the Twins desire. Until then, the Twins are shifting around trying to get comfortable in their own skin/seat. 

The post is about Zach Neto and suggested the Twins were hot to deal for him. Guys with big power are nice but it depends on what else the player brings to a team. Matt Wallner has big power. He could hit 30-40 home runs. He also cannot play in the field. This a tough reality for Big Matt. Zach Neto is not a middle infielder but he can run and has some pop (20+ HR) in his bat that also includes huge K-rates. If someone can explain where Neto fits and at what cost I might think about it. The story never made any sense to me. One poster ststed that the Twins have been playing similarly poor defenders. Why would the team continue in that direction by adding another? Just say no.

[bean5302]

Zach Neto's last 3 years are better than any Twins shortstop since Roy Smalley by fWAR. If you go by bWAR, Zach Neto over his past 3 seasons would arguably be the greatest Twins shortstop over 3 years in franchise history.

Glad everybody is convinced Culepper and Houston are guaranteed MVPs and all, but...

[PuckettPond]

Houston is our future SS. Look what he has done in the 1 year since being drafted. Houston is a 6 tool player, 5 tools plus he plays the position which is most valuable & difficult to develop. In the last 10 Twins drafts how many 1st round SS have we had? Will he move to AAA this year? Will he play in the AFL with Jenkins & Erod? Who are the AFL candidates?

[TheLeviathan]

The reason for this move was to cement a good defender in the middle of the infield.  The bat has been good enough to make that possible - even with the warts that are definitely there.  This team NEEDS more plus defenders.  The defense is literred with absolute bums or miscast guys without the skills or experience to play there.

One of my biggest annoyances with this franchise is their unwillingness to identify a player's defensive weaknesses and move them to a position better suited to them earlier in their development.  Adding Neto might have saved Culpepper from the same fate.

Dealing Jenkins or some elite return though?  No thanks.

 

[DJL44]

A Neto trade built around Emmanuel Rodriguez could have helped both teams. Rodriguez, Gonzalez and Winokur could have worked. 

[wesnewy]

As soon as I heard that the Angles started conversations with Jenkins I was out. I get that Neto is a proven player, but you are giving up on a top 10 prospect that was a top five pick, also puts up roadblock for your 2024 and 2025 first round picks that are both short stops. to me it's a 'quick fix' for the hole at SS that doesn't fix the defensive hole there

[Sam Caulder]

22 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The reason for this move was to cement a good defender in the middle of the infield.  The bat has been good enough to make that possible - even with the warts that are definitely there.  This team NEEDS more plus defenders.  The defense is literred with absolute bums or miscast guys without the skills or experience to play there.

One of my biggest annoyances with this franchise is their unwillingness to identify a player's defensive weaknesses and move them to a position better suited to them earlier in their development.  Adding Neto might have saved Culpepper from the same fate.

Dealing Jenkins or some elite return though?  No thanks.

 

Neto would not be the plus defender you're referring to. He's tied for the fifth most errors in the league with 15, and has never graded out as a strong defender in any of his full seasons. If I'm misinterpreting your comment, I apologize. But his defense is very well below league-average

[TNtwins85]

3 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

Being unable to part with prospects for proven big league talent is why the Twins are mired in mediocrity 

I would usually tend to agree but the report was the negotiations started with Jenkins. It ended there and it should have. If Neto was a plus defender at SS then possibly, but you don’t trade a potential GG OF who has middle of the order for 6 years potential for a guy like Neto unless you’re one Neto type player away from competing for a WS. If the Twins were there then yes you go for that. The Twins are not there so you keep Jenkins 100%. If the ask is a package starting with anyone not named Jenkins then you listen. 

[bean5302]

@Dave Lemke care you expand on your disagreement?

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Zach Neto's last 3 years are better than any Twins shortstop since Roy Smalley by fWAR. If you go by bWAR, Zach Neto over his past 3 seasons would arguably be the greatest Twins shortstop over 3 years in franchise history.

Glad everybody is convinced Culepper and Houston are guaranteed MVPs and all, but...

There are a couple of things you might consider that would change your thoughts. First, close the screen on numbers, most of which tell anyone whatever they want to know. Next, watch some games. That might include watching both other teams and any number of minor league teams. When you have watched a player several dozen times in all situations there may be some validity to the thoughts. Yes, I do stick to that ideal - not commenting on players I have not seen dozens of times. Now, it is very likely that you, like most people, do not have the time nor interest to watch so much baseball. That is perfectly understandable. Sometimes people have strong opinions on a player they have seen once or on a guy who has one number, somewhere out there on the internet, that seems impressive. Finally, you should know that MLB clubs have their own systems and take the published analytics for what they are - more numbers to crunch. 

As far as the comparisons to past Twins shortstops, you obviously never saw Zoilo Versalles, Leo Cardenas, or Greg Gagne. Neto would not have even made the cut on some of the early Twins teams. Why are people fascinated by Zach Neto?

There was a good article I saw recently (I think on The Athletic) that discussed the most common analytics. The short of it was that the numbers are largely fallacious. The example several people used was Ty France, who went from being the worst defensive first baseman in one year to the very best in the next season. The trick? Call off the second baseman on popups. That was the comment with some additional thoughts. This year we are being told that Luis Arraez is a spectacular second baseman. I look over all of the analytical information and find that my eyes and experience are a much better judge.

Edited 1 hour ago by tony&rodney
add

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

I would usually tend to agree but the report was the negotiations started with Jenkins. It ended there and it should have. If Neto was a plus defender at SS then possibly, but you don’t trade a potential GG OF who has middle of the order for 6 years potential for a guy like Neto unless you’re one Neto type player away from competing for a WS. If the Twins were there then yes you go for that. The Twins are not there so you keep Jenkins 100%. If the ask is a package starting with anyone not named Jenkins then you listen. 

Go look at the last several years of "cant miss prospects," and you will quickly realize that the Twins should be trading them for actual talent...