Twins Minor League Report (7/12): Marek Houston is Incredible

[chpettit19]

Houston has passed the Cavaco test. He's not an immediate and obvious bust. But let's slow down on the talk of calling him up to AAA after 17 games. His OPS, apparently, jumped over 100 points based on 1 game. Making any decisions on the numbers from this size of a sample is severely flawed strategy. 

I haven't seen any of his AA games. But how he's getting to the numbers matters. Teams don't just look at the numbers and say "he's ready!" They look at the process and how the guys are getting to the numbers. They know, or should know, what it takes to succeed at the next level up, and, ultimately, the top level. There are a lot of guys who can put up numbers at a level by doing things that won't work in higher levels. It's the entire concern with Emma. It's why McCrusher and Fedko got almost no run, and failed in the little they did.

If Houston puts up similar numbers for another month, and is doing what the coaches know, or should know, he needs to do to succeed at the higher levels, they should start talking about moving him up. Getting a month or so at AAA would be a huge win and be a very good result for Houston. Let's give him a few more games than 17 to determine he's conquered AA, though. When you OPS can jump 100 points in a game, it's probably too small a sample size.

[tony&rodney]

The minor leagues get a break this week. There are a few players having good years and some struggling. Marek Houston has been showing well, first for Cedar Rapids and then for Wichita. I'm pleased with his growth as a player but baseball is a difficult sport to rise through the systems. He is definitely worth following.

I want to encourage people who are interested in the minor league players to watch the games via milb.com. I understand many simply do not have the time. The statistics, like video highlights, tell us more than nothing but not much because there may be a ton of deception in the stats. Patience is also necessary because many of the young players have normal deficits in their concentration levels as they grow into their jobs just like many of us did as young folks.

Marek Houston is one to watch as he completes his year in Wichita and Brandon Winokur are two players on the Twins radar. There are others. I have not seen anyone who leaps off the screen this summer but there are a few who have shown real talent that should play at the highest level when they get the call. For now I believe the Twins are moving players at an appropriate speed.

[rdehring]

Will join those of you elated with what Houston is doing in Wichita.  Also, more than excited with what Winokur can become, wherever he ends up on the field.

Have been noticing Fragoza's name of late.  Kid is only 19 and putting up incredible numbers.  After seeing the Brewers have several Latin players playing in the Future's game yesterday, sure would be nice for the Twins to finally have one of their International kids hit it big.

[AceWrigley]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The guy with the 736 OPS in Double-A? That’s the guy everyone thinks is on the fast track to AAA?

Well, his OPS after 17 games with the Horse Poofs is 844 and playing stellar defense at a premium position and looking every part of a major league ball player, so I'd say his trajectory is definitely upward. I'd even say that if the major league roster suffers a rash of infield injuries and they need a shortstop, Marek could cover the position and may not give it up for 10 years.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It seems like Winokur profiles more as a CF than a SS, but I get moving guys around in the minors to a certain degree.  He's such a great athlete at his size that the draft pick was always a reasonable gamble. 

I would like to see Houston get a promotion sometime around August 1st if he continues to play at this level.  He's clobbering AA pitching and the defense is elite.  Get him up to St. Paul for August and see how he responds to the challenge.  If it goes well, he's set up to begin 2027 in AAA with St. Paul and at least be playing to begin the season with a chance to join the Twins sometime in 2027.

IDK, August 1 would be a total of roughly 30 games at AA.  That does not seem too likely.  

[Linus]

I’m excited about Houston like everyone else. It’s really fun to watch a good defensive SS. I will not be getting ahead of myself however. He still has to hit in AA, AAA and the bigs so plenty of hurdles left. I will be rooting for him for sure. 

[jmlease1]

Very happy to see Houston with a couple of xbhs, including a Big Fly. He's doing very well so far in AA, and so far disproving my concerns about him as a hitter. I am rooting for him to make me look very very stupid. :P

Not interested in rushing him to AAA; let's let him show out a little more in Wichita and try and remember that this is his first full professional season. Pushing up to AA in your first full pro season at 22 (and it's not like he's turning 23 in August either; he turned 22 in April) is just fine for now. The glove is good enough for MLB right now, which is great news, and if he's starting next season in AAA after a successful season where he showed he could hit at High-A and AA would be terrific news. 

I like seeing the xbhs because it suggests he can be more than just a slap-hitting, defense-only player. We don't need him to turn into a slugger, just continue being a guy with good speed, control of the strike zone, gap power, and the ability to punish a mistake. With his glove, that's a player with a very nice future.

My fear was that Houston was going to quickly look more like Noah Miller, whose glove everyone loved...but dude simply wasn't hitting. Miller is now 23 and while he's made it to AAA, this is the first season he's ever had an OPS over .700, while while superficially Miller's .767 OPS looks pretty good, his team's collective OPS is .825. The PCL as a whole is hitting .796. Miller is going to make it to MLB because his glove is quite good, but he's going to be in a utility role that will gets bounced up and down until his options run out, because his bat likely won't play up enough for him to start, even with that fine glove. 

If Houston stays on this path as a hitter, he'll be a potential starter. He's not there yet, but the path and production so far has been good. It's encouraging to see him do well upon promotion this time, rather than struggle. The next test is maintaining it, and not falling off at the end of the season after getting ground down by the length of a pro season. Looking forward to see if he can pass those marks.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Houston has passed the Cavaco test. He's not an immediate and obvious bust. But let's slow down on the talk of calling him up to AAA after 17 games. His OPS, apparently, jumped over 100 points based on 1 game. Making any decisions on the numbers from this size of a sample is severely flawed strategy. 

I haven't seen any of his AA games. But how he's getting to the numbers matters. Teams don't just look at the numbers and say "he's ready!" They look at the process and how the guys are getting to the numbers. They know, or should know, what it takes to succeed at the next level up, and, ultimately, the top level. There are a lot of guys who can put up numbers at a level by doing things that won't work in higher levels. It's the entire concern with Emma. It's why McCrusher and Fedko got almost no run, and failed in the little they did.

If Houston puts up similar numbers for another month, and is doing what the coaches know, or should know, he needs to do to succeed at the higher levels, they should start talking about moving him up. Getting a month or so at AAA would be a huge win and be a very good result for Houston. Let's give him a few more games than 17 to determine he's conquered AA, though. When you OPS can jump 100 points in a game, it's probably too small a sample size.

Hens the 'irrational' part of my current optimism :)

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Getting a month or so at AAA would be a huge win and be a very good result for Houston. Let's give him a few more games than 17 to determine he's conquered AA, though. When you OPS can jump 100 points in a game, it's probably too small a sample size.

The AA season ends a week before the AAA season. I would like to see Houston get that extra week in September.

Culpepper played 59 games for Wichita last year. Houston will reach 60 games at that level about September 6 with one week left in the schedule for Wichita.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They know, or should know, what it takes to succeed  ...

... and is doing what the coaches know, or should know, he needs to ...

I detect just a teensy bit of skepticism concerning the competence of the Twins' minor league coaching staff.  😁

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I detect just a teensy bit of skepticism concerning the competence of the Twins' minor league coaching staff.  😁

Never!

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Never!

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

His OPS, apparently, jumped over 100 points based on 1 game. 

I failed to add, a couple more games and his OPS should be up above 1.000.  What are we waiting for?

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I failed to add, a couple more games and his OPS should be up above 1.000.  What are we waiting for?

At that point we need to be trading Culpepper and Kriedler for bullpen help and getting Houston to the bigs so we can have a parade in late October...

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

At that point we need to be trading Culpepper and Kriedler for bullpen help and getting Houston to the bigs so we can have a parade in late October...

Clearly like a better version of Mike Trout, if Mike Trout played SS. Bobby Witt, Jr. better win the MVP this year, it's probably his last chance.

[Otaknam]

10 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It seems like Winokur profiles more as a CF than a SS, but I get moving guys around in the minors to a certain degree.  He's such a great athlete at his size that the draft pick was always a reasonable gamble. 

I would like to see Houston get a promotion sometime around August 1st if he continues to play at this level.  He's clobbering AA pitching and the defense is elite.  Get him up to St. Paul for August and see how he responds to the challenge.  If it goes well, he's set up to begin 2027 in AAA with St. Paul and at least be playing to begin the season with a chance to join the Twins sometime in 2027.

If it doesn't go well, he's still set up to play most, if not the entire season at AAA.  But with the defense being elite, he could still see a late season 2027 call up.  He's never going to be Bobby Witt Jr. at the plate.  But how many guys ARE?  Walker Jenkins would be a Minnesota Twin by now had he not had such tough injury luck.  Marek Houston is earning his chances at promotion.  There is no need to rush, but if the play merits a promotion, don't play games, reward the effort and production.   

It's also probably true that Kaelon Culpepper would be a Twin by now if his injury luck had been better.  A future infield of Lee-3B, Houston-SS and Culpepper-2B looks promising.  Now that we've hit the All-Star Game and the trade deadline looms on August 1st, we should see a further shuffling of the Major League roster.  Hopefully, SOME of the players we acquire are able to join the big league team immediately.  It seems like Jenkins and Culpepper will be joining sometime in August as well.  

Houston, landing in St. Paul would be fine with me.  Has anyone heard what level the Twins plan to start Vahn Lackey at?  

I think the Twins need to sign Lackey before they reveal where they would start him. My guess is High A Cedar Rapids but it could be Fort Myers low A to get him acclimated.