The Writing is on the Wall for Tristan Gray

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

It feels like the writing is on the wall for Tristan Gray. When the Twins acquired Gray from the Red Sox this winter, the expectations weren't particularly high. He wasn't viewed as a player who was going to dramatically change the roster or suddenly become an everyday contributor. If everything broke right, the best-case scenario was probably that he'd earn an Opening Day roster spot as a depth infielder capable of filling in around the diamond. And that's exactly what happened.

Not only did Gray make the Opening Day roster, but for a little while, it actually looked like the Twins may have stumbled onto a hidden gem. Through May 5 (albeit in a very small sample of just 61 plate appearances), Gray was hitting .273 with three home runs and a 112 wRC+. For a player who was expected to simply provide depth, that kind of production was more than enough to catch people's attention.

It wasn't just the numbers, either. Gray delivered in several big moments early in the season, including a grand slam in the Twins' home opener that put the game on ice. He came through when the team needed him, and suddenly there was real excitement surrounding a player whom hardly anyone expected much from just a few weeks earlier. At the same time, Brooks Lee was enduring a miserable start to the season. With Lee struggling to find any consistency at the plate, there was a legitimate argument to be made that Gray had earned a larger role. In fact, for a brief stretch, there was a reasonable case that he should take over as the Twins' primary shortstop.

It's funny how quickly things can change over the course of a baseball season. Since May 6, it's been almost nothing but downhill. Over that stretch, Gray is hitting just .202 with a .510 OPS. His wRC+ has plummeted from a comfortably above-average mark all the way to a dreadful 39, and the underlying numbers don't paint a much prettier picture, either. He's making very little hard contact, which makes it incredibly difficult to produce consistently even when he does put the ball in play. Unfortunately, he isn't putting the ball in play nearly enough. On the season, Gray owns a strikeout rate of 31.8%, an alarmingly high number that has made it nearly impossible for him to sustain any offensive success.

He's not making enough contact, and when he does make contact, he's not doing enough damage with it. To make matters worse, he isn't offsetting those strikeouts by drawing walks, either. His on-base ability has been minimal, leaving him without another avenue to contribute offensively. Just to be blunt, there's really nothing Gray is doing particularly well at the plate right now.

Unfortunately for both him and the Twins, the blemishes don't stop there. If Gray were providing elite defense, perhaps you could live with some of the offensive shortcomings. Plenty of utility infielders have carved out long major-league careers by providing defensive value despite light bats. That hasn't been the case here. Gray currently grades out at -5 runs, and he's shown very little range in the infield throughout the season. Too many balls that should be converted into outs have found their way through the infield.

Despite not being an everyday player, Gray is tied for the most errors among all Twins fielders with eight. When you're struggling offensively and not providing much value defensively, it becomes incredibly difficult to justify a roster spot. At this point, nothing about Gray's profile suggests he's a major league-quality player. Luckily for him, though, baseball has a funny way of opening unexpected doors.

For what feels like most of the season at this point, shortstop Kaelen Culpepper has looked like he was on the verge of receiving his first call to the major leagues. The Twins' No. 2 prospect has continued to impress at Triple-A, and many fans have been anxiously waiting for the organization to give him an opportunity.

Culpepper's glute has had other plans, however. He already spent a couple of weeks on the injured list in June because of the issue, and earlier this week, he landed back on the IL after the injury flared up again. It's an unfortunate development all around. It's obviously not ideal for Culpepper, who now has to put his major-league debut on hold while he works his way back. It's not ideal for Twins fans who have been eager to see one of the organization's top prospects finally arrive in Minnesota. And, somewhat ironically, it's probably the best thing that could’ve happened to Tristan Gray.

With Culpepper sidelined, the Twins probably have quite as much urgency to make a change at shortstop. Gray will likely stick around a little longer, simply because the player many expected to replace him isn't currently available. But if Gray plans to remain in the major leagues beyond Culpepper's return, things are going to have to change—and they'll have to change drastically.

The Twins can only wait so long for his offense to rebound. They can only overlook so many strikeouts, so many weakly hit balls, and so many defensive mistakes before deciding they need a different option. For a brief moment earlier this season, Gray looked like one of the best stories on the roster. He exceeded expectations, delivered some memorable moments, and even forced his way into conversations about earning a larger role. But baseball seasons are long, and early-season success only buys you so much time. Eventually, you have to keep producing, and right now, Tristan Gray simply isn't. His roster spot has been given a temporary lifeline because of circumstances outside of his control, but temporary is the key word. You might be able to delay the inevitable, but you can't stop it.

View full article

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agreed that Gray is providing very little value at this point. I think the biggest flaw in keeping him on the roster is that we only really have one utility infielder spot and Gray cannot play shortstop at anything close to an MLB quality level. Culpepper is the obvious replacement but you can't bring up a guy who can't stay healthy. So effectively we are playing without a competent backup SS and the starter has a history of not be able to hit although Kreidler is doing better this year. Not a great situation.

The issue is who else can be the replacement. Frankly, the two best replacements in AAA are Arcia and Ross and neither of them is on the 40 man roster. Orlando Arcia can play a decent MLB shortstop. He's not much of a hitter with a .654 MLB OPS this year, but at least he can field the position. He also easily be jettisoned when Culpepper is ready. Ben Ross is an interesting choice but I don't know if he can field well enough to play SS in the Bigs. He hit well in AA and is holding his own in AAA. Again though, he is not on the 40 man roster.

I think everything depends on when Culpepper is likely to be ready. If it's soon, I would expect them to just roll with Gray for now or maybe replace him with Arcia. If it may be mid August or later before we see Culpepper, I would like to see them lose Gray and bring up Ben Ross. Banda is out for the year so he can be moved to the 60 day IL to create space on the 40 man roster. Let's see if Ross can play SS and whether he can hit MLB pitching. If he can, he gives you another utility option if Culpepper can't come up this year or tanks when he does get a shot. Kreidler can hold down the position for now and provides a viable utility option when another shortstop comes in so the opportunity probably goes away when Culpepper or Houston is really ready. Now might be a good time to take advantage of this window and get a look at Ross to see if he might fit in our future plans.

[rdehring]

I keep wondering what move the Twins will make when Buxton returns, hopefully right after the ASG.  They don't want to lose Jackson, so it shouldn't be him.  Fedko was sent down today, so not him.  Right now, they have six infielders, including Gray and Bell.  Bell doesn't really play in the field, so if they send Gray out, they would have zero infield backups, and that's not happening. 

With the trading deadline approaching they could send Roden back to St. Paul for a few weeks, but if he is hitting well, they would prefer not to.  They also could bring Keaschall back to the infield for a few days or weeks, moving Clemons to first, Lewis to third and Lee to shortstop.  Not ideal but may be a reasonable plan versus keeping Gray on the roster.  Or is it? 

This all becomes moot should they trade Jeffers by the time Buxton returns, hopefully for a package including a young reliever who is already in the major leagues.

 

[ashbury]

A lot of words, which could have been condensed down to "Next, please."

[SteveLV]

As soon as Culpepper returns from injury and proves he is back up to speed, I am afraid Mr. Gray will be departing.

[LA Vikes Fan]

54 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I keep wondering what move the Twins will make when Buxton returns, hopefully right after the ASG.  They don't want to lose Jackson, so it shouldn't be him.  Fedko was sent down today, so not him.  Right now, they have six infielders, including Gray and Bell.  Bell doesn't really play in the field, so if they send Gray out, they would have zero infield backups, and that's not happening. 

With the trading deadline approaching they could send Roden back to St. Paul for a few weeks, but if he is hitting well, they would prefer not to.  They also could bring Keaschall back to the infield for a few days or weeks, moving Clemons to first, Lewis to third and Lee to shortstop.  Not ideal but may be a reasonable plan versus keeping Gray on the roster.  Or is it? 

This all becomes moot should they trade Jeffers by the time Buxton returns, hopefully for a package including a young reliever who is already in the major leagues.

 

I hadn't thought of this problem, and I think you're right. It does make one wonder if maybe a trade of Jeffers is happening sooner than waiting for the actual deadline. It could also be that if Roden looks like he's ready that Larnach will be traded earlier. Buxton is eligible to come off the 10 day IL Friday the 17th for the Cubs series and even if you think they'd be willing to let him sit out that series, he is coming back by Tuesday the 21st for the Guardians series unless there's something really wrong. We're kind of betwixt and between because that doesn't give us too much time to evaluate Roden, trade Jeffers, or trade Larnach.

Here is my guess assuming Buxton is ready to come back no later than Tuesday, July 21 in Cleveland. Most likely possibility is Jeffers is traded before then for prospects which opens a roster spot. Next possibility is Larnach is traded for a relief pitcher or for prospects, Martin and Roden become the left-field platoon, and Adams goes to AAA for that relief pitcher. If neither one of those has come to fruition and there is no injury we can use to create a spot, Roden or Martin has to go down because we have to keep at least one utility infielder.

[DJL44]

This is why you shouldn’t make conclusions based on small sample sizes. 

He came into this season with a career OPS of 76 in 153 plate appearances. This season he has an OPS of 64 in 176 PA. The Twins are getting just slightly less than they should have expected from Gray.

[wesnewy]

I would take Arcia replacing him for the SS role. This team already has enough lefties even with Gray in and out of the lineup

[Sampson5]

Id call arcia back up and let him be the back up SS until Culpeper is healthy and ready . I mean what are we doing here your backup at the most important infield spot can't be terrible as a hitter and defender gotta be good at something which gray isn't he should of already been dfa'd but weirdly twins only care about certain players slumping yet others get passes and will still get regular playing time no matter how bad they play . Gray should be getting the outman treatment where he only starts once every 10 or 12 days that's how bad he's been while offense is slightly better outman at least provided some value on defense and on the bases . Unfortunate that Culpeper is hurt again I'm pretty confident if he never gets hurt he's already on the roster and gray is in the minors or on a different team RN 

[DJL44]

SS was the biggest hole coming into the season and it is still the biggest hole in July. Arcia will give them a 650 OPS with bad defense.
 

Their only internal solution is Culpepper. Hopefully he gets promoted soon. 

[HarmonK03]

And yet Gray is starting again tonight.  The Twins seem to believe in him, just none of us can see why.  To keep starting him over Kreidler, should be enough to send Zoll packing.  This is an organizational decision, not just Shelton's to keep starting him.

[Coach]

Like I said on another article, "Pull a Polonco and give Marek Houston the short line (A to Bigs) and bring him up for a very strong cup of coffee."  We can't keep waiting for Culpepper to get (be) healthy.  Otherwise, Arcia is our best option.

[HarmonK03]

34 minutes ago, Coach said:

Like I said on another article, "Pull a Polonco and give Marek Houston the short line (A to Bigs) and bring him up for a very strong cup of coffee."  We can't keep waiting for Culpepper to get (be) healthy.  Otherwise, Arcia is our best option.

While I wouldn't mind them bringing up Houston, it is apples and oranges comparing him to Polanco.  Polanco was brought up the first time because they had nobody else healthy on the 40 man roster and they needed someone short term.  He was brought up to sit on the bench and fill out the roster only, not to play.