Ryan Jeffers Heads To Injured List In Busy Morning Of Twins Transactions

[Steve Drumwright]

 

In addition to the major news of former first-round pick Royce Lewis being sent to Triple-A St. Paul, the Minnesota Twins made more than a handful of other moves Tuesday ahead of the second game of the series against the Houston Astros. The most noteworthy of those moves is catcher Ryan Jeffers going on the 10-day injured list with a broken left hamate bone, which could sideline him anywhere from one to two months.

Here is the complete list of moves:

• Optioned third baseman Royce Lewis to the Triple-A St. Paul Saints.
• Placed catcher Ryan Jeffers on the 10-day injured list with a left hamate bone fracture.
• Designated right-handed reliever Justin Topa for assignment.
• Selected the contract of catcher Alex Jackson from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints.
• Selected the contract of shortstop Orlando Arcia from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints.
• Recalled right-handed reliever Travis Adams from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints.
• Transferred right-handed reliever Garrett Acton (strained right shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.

In other words, Lewis, Jeffers and Topa off the Twins' 26-man roster, with Arcia, Jackson and Adams now on the 26-man roster. Acton was moved to the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster. There does appear to be one more 40-man move coming as FanGraphs lists the Twins with 41 players on the 40.

 

 

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[exeoud]

Sucks, the lineup is going to be really bad now. Silver lining is it's likely that Jeffers wasn't going to keep up a mid 900s OPS, he's started hot in years past and faded down the stretch, and he should be back by the trade deadline where we will probably deal him because the Pohlad's are not paying up for anybody, which I don't hate IF we draft Vahn Lackey.

He's gonna be maybe the top bat on the market and a premium defensive catcher getting up there in age, the Twins need to get a haul if they're not planning to re-sign him and drafting Lackey.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder how much trade value he would have if any. Catchers are going to have a harder time returning from this hamate injury. @NYCTK pointed out Francisco Alvarez returned in 7 weeks after the March 8 injury. He returned with poor offensive and defensive performance. He wasn’t back until he was optioned out and returned July 21. Teams will be looking to this comp. A similar start date for return to success for Jeffers would be September 30.

The best option may be to retain and make a qualifying offer. Trade offers might not be any better and wouldn’t give the flexibility of more dollars in the draft. The market for Jeffers may even cause him to take the offer and go out and prove he is healthy next year.

[IndianaTwin]

@Steve Drumwright, I'm not sure where you find the 40-man roster on Fangraphs, but today's 40-man movement was dropping Topa (DFA) and Acton (60-day IL) for Jackson and Arcia. The moves of Lewis, Jeffers and Adams didn't change their 40-man status.

The list on MLB.com is current, though it also includes those on the 60-day (Acton, Festa, Lopez).

[exeoud]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I wonder how much trade value he would have if any. Catchers are going to have a harder time returning from this hamate injury. @NYCTK pointed out Francisco Alvarez returned in 7 weeks after the March 8 injury. He returned with poor offensive and defensive performance. He wasn’t back until he was optioned out and returned July 21. Teams will be looking to this comp. A similar start date for return to success for Jeffers would be September 30.

The best option may be to retain and make a qualifying offer. Trade offers might not be any better and wouldn’t give the flexibility of more dollars in the draft. The market for Jeffers may even cause him to take the offer and go out and prove he is healthy next year.

All valid points, I think the fact that catcher is such a premium position and the likely lack of impact bats on the market it will be a unique situation where he doesn't lose much value. Even if the bat isn't good until September the defense helps a ton at catcher to get a team into the playoffs when the bat heats up. I certainly think they could at least get a prospect and a competitive balance pick (what you would get when he declines the QO) in a trade, but QO isn't a horrible fallback if there's no good deals. We should be discussing extending him but that's not a reality with this ownership.

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, exeoud said:

Even if the bat isn't good until September the defense helps a ton at catcher to get a team into the playoffs when the bat heats up.

That healing wrist is going to have to catch 120+ balls a game. His defense is not going to return in top form either,

[arby58]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I wonder how much trade value he would have if any. Catchers are going to have a harder time returning from this hamate injury. @NYCTK pointed out Francisco Alvarez returned in 7 weeks after the March 8 injury. He returned with poor offensive and defensive performance. He wasn’t back until he was optioned out and returned July 21. Teams will be looking to this comp. A similar start date for return to success for Jeffers would be September 30.

The best option may be to retain and make a qualifying offer. Trade offers might not be any better and wouldn’t give the flexibility of more dollars in the draft. The market for Jeffers may even cause him to take the offer and go out and prove he is healthy next year.

I agree that a catcher is probably on a long end of the recovery timeline. That said, I doubt it will hurt his free agency value that much - it's not like a torn ACL or multiple concussions. A broken bone that fully heals isn't that much more likely to be broken again. Given Jeffers' strong performance this year, he will be in demand in the FA market.

[jorgenswest]

12 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I agree that a catcher is probably on a long end of the recovery timeline. That said, I doubt it will hurt his free agency value that much - it's not like a torn ACL or multiple concussions. A broken bone that fully heals isn't that much more likely to be broken again. Given Jeffers' strong performance this year, he will be in demand in the FA market.

So he probably won’t take the qualifying offer. That still leaves the possibility of a pick.

I saw that 81% of players with the hamate injury returned to their previous level of performance. I don’t see that parsed out for catcher. If he struggles to end the season upon his return as many do I think it will impact his free agent value. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, exeoud said:

All valid points, I think the fact that catcher is such a premium position and the likely lack of impact bats on the market it will be a unique situation where he doesn't lose much value. Even if the bat isn't good until September the defense helps a ton at catcher to get a team into the playoffs when the bat heats up. I certainly think they could at least get a prospect and a competitive balance pick (what you would get when he declines the QO) in a trade, but QO isn't a horrible fallback if there's no good deals. We should be discussing extending him but that's not a reality with this ownership.

Another consideration is that it doesn't seem like catchers get traded as often at the deadline, though perhaps I'm forgetting some who have. Good teams tend to already have good catchers and they don't seem to want to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at that point in the season. Also, with the number of young pitchers they have, I think the Twins would also want to consider the effect it has on pitcher development to trade their No. 1 guy. With those factors and Jeffers perhaps having played himself into a QO candidacy, I've been feeling less and less urgency in trading him.  

[rv78]

Wallner is gone, Lewis is gone. Neither will be missed by this offense. Jeffers on the otherhand, will be.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

13 hours ago, rv78 said:

Wallner is gone, Lewis is gone. Neither will be missed by this offense. Jeffers on the otherhand, will be.

Yep, Jeffers was having a great season. Another very unfortunate injury. 

[The Great Hambino]

A big part of a player's value in free agency is the list of the other available free agents at their position.  Here's a list of top potential free agent targets at catcher this offseason

 

Catcher: Carson Kelly (mutual option), Ryan Jeffers, Tyler Stephenson, Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka (mutual option), Gary Sánchez (mutual option), Jonah Heim

Jeffers looks pretty good among that group to me.  He's two years younger than Kelly, and the rest are roughly replacement level

[jorgenswest]

16 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

A big part of a player's value in free agency is the list of the other available free agents at their position.  Here's a list of top potential free agent targets at catcher this offseason

 

Catcher: Carson Kelly (mutual option), Ryan Jeffers, Tyler Stephenson, Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka (mutual option), Gary Sánchez (mutual option), Jonah Heim

Jeffers looks pretty good among that group to me.  He's two years younger than Kelly, and the rest are roughly replacement level

When was the last time a catcher received a free agent contract with an AAV above the qualifying offer? I don’t see one in the last 5 years. I only see two significant contracts in the last 5 years at 5/87 and 3/45 but Jeffers hasn’t performed over time near Contreras or Realmuto. There is only one other three year deal and that was Vazquez.

Are catchers valued in trade or free agency? It doesn’t seem like it.

It might be foolish but I would make a qualifying offer to Jeffers. He might take it. I would also make a 3 year offer with the starter at 3/45. There might be motivation to take it. The first few months of return from this injury is often matched with poor offensive and defensive performance. Boris has to be considering Jeffers’ value if he returns and has an OPS of .600 the last two and a half months with shaky defense. They might be wise to take that contract before he returns.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

When was the last time a catcher received a free agent contract with an AAV above the qualifying offer? I don’t see one in the last 5 years. I only see two significant contracts in the last 5 years at 5/87 and 3/45 but Jeffers hasn’t performed over time near Contreras or Realmuto. There is only one other three year deal and that was Vazquez.

Are catchers valued in trade or free agency? It doesn’t seem like it.

It might be foolish but I would make a qualifying offer to Jeffers. He might take it. I would also make a 3 year offer with the starter at 3/45. There might be motivation to take it. The first few months of return from this injury is often matched with poor offensive and defensive performance. Boris has to be considering Jeffers’ value if he returns and has an OPS of .600 the last two and a half months with shaky defense. They might be wise to take that contract before he returns.

Good points.   But I'd add that Jeffers will be younger than the catchers that signed those larger deals - he'll be 29 this offseason whereas Contreras and Realmuto were heading into their age 31 and 35 seasons, respectively.  Do good catchers generally not reach free agency in the first place?

So much depends on how he looks upon his return, but I'm not sure if it would be unreasonable to offer the QO even if it's above his projected AAV in free agency given it's just a one year commitment

3/45 for Realmuto and 3/30 for Vasquez tells me that the FA catching market can be strange and unpredictable 

[gil4]

21 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I saw that 81% of players with the hamate injury returned to their previous level of performance.

I remember one who turned into a HoF hitter after returning from that. The first time I ever heard of a hamate bone was when Ortiz missed time with it.

[Mike Sixel]

22 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

So he probably won’t take the qualifying offer. That still leaves the possibility of a pick.

I saw that 81% of players with the hamate injury returned to their previous level of performance. I don’t see that parsed out for catcher. If he struggles to end the season upon his return as many do I think it will impact his free agent value. 

They aren't paying him QO money. Zero chance. 

Should have traded him. Like many here said. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't paying him QO money. Zero chance. 

Should have traded him. Like many here said. 

Jansen with cash was moved at the deadline and the return was marginal. Jadher Areinamo might of ranked mid 20s with the Twins. He is floundering in AA this year. I wouldn’t have made that deal and the Brewers would have preferred Jansen anyway. They were looking for a short term solution.

The Twins probably could have a middling level prospect from the Phillies in the winter. Jeffers was coming off an OK season (1.2 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR). It was a quiet catcher winter. Realmuto, Caratini and Jansen were the free agents with Ford and Jackson moving in trade. The Phillies were the only real buyer. Maybe they could have got an Alan Roden type as a ceiling. The Phillies might have been waiting Realmuto out all along. Writers speculated the Red Sox also but they prioritized other positions. Reports after the Realmuto signing were that the Red Sox never seriously pursued him preferring Narvaez and his strong defense.

Do you think Boras would have him take a qualifying offer or go to free agency? I guess it is most important what the Twins think. They cut off the money in 2023 and still made Gray a qualifying offer. I am not as certain as you that they wouldn’t do the same with Jeffers. A comp pick is likely comparable to his value last winter.

It is likely folly but my mind is not fixed. I hope they make that offer and I hope he surprises him and takes it. He is valuable to that staff.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't paying him QO money. Zero chance. 

Should have traded him. Like many here said. 

Ain't read the fine print.

 

Does a qualifying offer imply a no trade clause?

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Ain't read the fine print.

 

Does a qualifying offer imply a no trade clause?

No. It implies more than twenty million a year. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No. It implies more than twenty million a year. 

Which is more per year thanthe above mentioned long deals.

 

And odds are any trade others would accept would likely ask us to eat some of the contract...