Joe Ryan's Start to the Season Has Been... Confusing

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

It’s still early in the season, but patterns are already starting to emerge. Through three starts—roughly 10% of a typical starter’s workload—Joe Ryan has shown a little bit of everything. At times, he’s looked like the ace we know he can be. At others, he’s struggled to find the same rhythm that made him so dominant last year. Looking at the full picture, it feels less like a clear story, and more like a push-and-pull between the surface-level results and what the underlying numbers are telling us.

Each start has played into that mix differently. His outing on Opening Day was easily his best, as he worked 5 1/3 shutout innings with seven strikeouts and an impressive display of swing-and-miss stuff. His next two starts weren’t nearly as clean. More traffic appeared on the bases; pitch counts climbed faster than expected; and he wasn’t able to work as deep into games, even if his stuff still flashed at times.

On the surface, his numbers look underwhelming. The 4.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP are both clear steps back from last year, and they reflect more baserunners, longer innings, and fewer chances to settle in. His early workload also stands out. Should Ryan make 30 starts but work only as deep into games as he's averaged so far, he'd compile just 143 innings. That’s well below what you’d expect from a starter of his caliber, and it points back to the inefficiency that has shown up.

But once you dig a little deeper, his data tells a different story. Despite the inflated ERA, his FIP sits way down at 2.06. That gap suggests his performance has been far better than the results indicate. Strikeout numbers reinforce the same idea: his strikeout rate sits at 27.9%, nearly identical to last year’s 28.2%, showing that the swing-and-miss ability that makes him such a high-end starter hasn’t gone anywhere. His walk rate is up, but the sample is too small to assume that's signal, rather than noise.

A big part of the disconnect between process and results comes from balls in play. His BABIP currently sits at .342, a huge jump from .268 last season. Over just three starts, that difference can swing results quickly, turning manageable innings into extended ones and pushing pitch counts higher than expected. This issue isn't even Ryan's fault, but it will be his problem. His defense has been bad; the Twins' defense will be bad all year.

There are also signs that Ryan is making adjustments. He’s leaned much more heavily on his curveball than in previous seasons, giving hitters another look alongside his fastball mix. When it’s working, it creates more swing-and-miss opportunities and adds a different dimension to his approach. At the same time, any change like that can come with growing pains. Command can wobble early, which naturally can show up as walks or deeper counts, and those little inconsistencies add up to shorter appearances. He's stretching to extremes of movement, with his sweeper, his splitter, his fastball and that curve, and the strike zone is only so big.

Through three starts, Ryan sits in an interesting spot. The surface numbers suggest a slight step back, while advanced metrics indicate he’s still performing at a high level. That gap comes down largely to efficiency and some bad luck on balls in play. If his BABIP normalizes and his walk rate settles closer to last year’s numbers, his ERA and WHIP should start to better reflect what he’s actually doing on the mound.

It’s also worth remembering just how small a sample three starts really is. Even for a proven top-of-the-rotation guy like Ryan, early-season fluctuations aren’t unusual. Strikeout rates and his underlying performance show he’s still capable of dominating. But until the surface-level results catch up, inefficiency and some misfortune have left his line looking worse than the process might suggest.

Nor can we discount the impact of weather. Ryan pitched through heavy rain in Kansas City last week and in stunningly cold conditions Monday night. Baseball played in that kind of weather gets weird and ugly, and Ryan could have mitigated that a bit better, but there was no way to truly avoid the effects.

For now, his first three turns through the rotation have been a mix of encouraging flashes and lingering questions. When he’s on, there’s little doubt that he’s the best pitcher in the Twins’ system. When he’s not, walks and a high BABIP can make it look rougher than it really is. The story is far from over, but the early trends give fans something to watch: can he convert the underlying numbers into consistent results, or will these mixed outings continue to shape his season?

His talent is still there, and the stuff is still there. Once efficiency starts to line up with performance, the results should follow. Until then, we’ll be trying to figure out which version of Joe Ryan will show up next.

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[Possumlad]

He's looked the same to me. As you say, I expect results to come back in line - not concerned in the slightest.

[ziggy]

The batted balls that are not fielded are not his fault. Every single infielder and 2 of his outfielders are below average fielders.

If anything he is over compensating  because of his poor fielders. Who can blame him?

A small nit pick from me....being the best pitcher on the Twins staff does not make you an ace, simply the best on this staff.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Joe Ryan Experience remains pretty entertaining...but, one thing with Joe is, when something goes wrong - whether an error like Lee's or a small strike zone, he can sometimes let it snow ball. 

[bean5302]

Ryan has far exceeded my expectations as a pitcher. I never expected him to be better than a #4 type of guy, but he's continuously re-vamped his arsenal of pitches and he's found successes with the changes, something which is very rare in the world of starting pitchers.

His career FIP, xFIP and ERA are all similar. 3.80ish. Last year his FIP and xFIP were 3.70-3.74, but he managed a 67% QS2 (5.0+ IP, ERA 3.99 or less leaving the game). Great stuff, close to #1 caliber results, but not really there.

He's going to likely continue to have up and down starts. A playoff caliber rotation arm at this point, no doubt, but reasonable expectations should be in order.

 

[LambchoP]

Joe will be just fine. The defense as it is right now, will do him no favors 

[thelanges5]

#extendjoeryan

[JD-TWINS]

39 minutes ago, ziggy said:

The batted balls that are not fielded are not his fault. Every single infielder and 2 of his outfielders are below average fielders.

If anything he is over compensating  because of his poor fielders. Who can blame him?

A small nit pick from me....being the best pitcher on the Twins staff does not make you an ace, simply the best on this staff.

Agreed on the “Ace” comment.

His defense (behind him) is no worse than it was last year so that argument, defending his results, is a bit empty.

He’s walking more guys than he typically has and that builds “pitch count” & creates more stress for him and run opportunities for opponents.

[mikelink45]

Too early to judge. I am not a fan of FIP and prefer to see the results on the field. Right now he's just a pitcher and that's fine this early in the season. Ace talk needs to wait until later in August. Our concern should be for Ober and Abel and the fact that Zebby has not looked good in AAA.  

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

23 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Too early to judge. I am not a fan of FIP and prefer to see the results on the field. Right now he's just a pitcher and that's fine this early in the season. Ace talk needs to wait until later in August. Our concern should be for Ober and Abel and the fact that Zebby has not looked good in AAA.  

Yeah, if the rebuild is going to work, the Twins are going to need Abel and Zebby. With Abel, maybe he'll imrpove as the weather gets better - but I think the early MO for him is to pitch well at AAA and struggle in the majors. As for Zebby, no clue what's going on there. He should be dominating AAA at this point.

[wornsmooth]

1. It has been cold out.

2. It has been cold out.

3. Ryan can bring attitude. I love his in your face " dude, hit this if you can" demeanor.

4. Give him some run support and he will be a year in and year out 20 game winner.

[ziggy]

Quote

His defense (behind him) is no worse than it was last year so that argument, defending his results, is a bit empty.

At this time last year he had Correa at shortstop and a gold glove first baseman.

[tony&rodney]

I am confused by this article. Ryan has looked good. A little luck with gloves and a hit or two are all he needs. Joe Ryan doesn't take the mound to be Skubal or Skenes but he is a #1 pitcher from my seat.

[Whitey333]

Ryan will be fine.  Yes its early and the weather has been lousy.  Those are typical excuses used when performances are not up to snuff so to speak.  IMO that's what Fip and many analytics show.  People use the analytics to explain away negative statistics but that is a losers situation.  Ryan is ok.  It's the weather, bad luck, and no one in the stands.   Just saying we have excuses for it all.  Ryan is ok.