Twins, Trevor Larnach Avoid Arbitration

[Cody Christie]

According to KSTP’s Darren Wolfson, the Twins and Trevor Larnach have agreed to terms on a $4.475 million contract for next season, avoiding an arbitration hearing. MLB Trade Rumors had projected Larnach to earn $4.7 million, so the final number comes in just under expectations and gives the Twins a bit of financial clarity as they continue to shape the roster for 2026.

On the surface, avoiding arbitration feels like standard operating procedure. Dig a little deeper, though, and this agreement says more about the Twins’ current roster crunch than it does about a long-term commitment to Larnach. There had been speculation that Minnesota could non-tender the outfielder altogether, mainly because the organization is flush with younger, cheaper alternatives. While $4.475 million is not the most expensive arbitration salary on the roster, it represents roughly five percent of a payroll estimated to land around $100 million in 2026. For this front office, every dollar still matters.

Larnach agreeing to terms with the Twins does not mean his future in Minnesota is secure. In fact, the opposite may be true. The Twins now have six left-handed hitting outfielders on the 40-man roster, and that group includes Larnach, Hendry Mendez, James Outman, Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Matt Wallner. That list does not even include top prospect Walker Jenkins, who is waiting in the wings at Triple-A and is very much part of the long-term plan.

As things stand, the Twins favor Wallner and Roden for regular roles early in 2026, with Outman serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field. Rodriguez and Mendez are expected to open the season in the minors, though Rodriguez in particular has the kind of upside that will force the issue if he is healthy and productive. In that context, it is difficult to find a clear path to consistent playing time for Larnach outside of a shared DH role.

With a set salary in place for 2026, Larnach becomes easier to move in a trade than he was during the arbitration guessing game. Cost certainty matters to other clubs, especially those trying to fill a corner outfield need without committing to a long-term deal.

From a performance standpoint, Larnach’s 2025 season was steady but unspectacular. He set a career high with 142 games played and led the team in that category, but his overall production landed just below league average. A 99 OPS+, a .250/.323/.404 (.727) slash line, 17 home runs, 60 RBI, a 9.3 BB%, and a 21.5 K% added up to a 0.1 bWAR. There is value there, particularly in durability, but it is not the kind of profile that brings back a significant return on its own.

The most realistic recent comparison for a potential Larnach deal is the Twins trading Nick Gordon for Steven Okert during spring training in 2024. That type of modest swap feels far more plausible than anything splashy. The challenge will be finding the right partner. Minnesota needs a team that is thin in the corner outfield and deep in bullpen arms, a combination that is not especially common around the league.

In the end, the Twins and Larnach avoiding arbitration is less about stability and more about flexibility. Minnesota gets a known cost on a player who still has some appeal, and Larnach gets paid without the uncertainty of a hearing. Whether he spends that season in a Twins uniform is another question entirely. As the outfield picture continues to crowd itself, this agreement feels like one step toward an eventual resolution rather than the final word.

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[Parfigliano]

OK.  I guess. All TC news is so terribly depressing.

[Dman]

Glad they got that done and they can make it work if they keep him as they can technically keep Gonzalez, Mendez, Rodriguez and Roden at AAA as they have options left.  Martin has an option left as well, but since he had a 150 OPS+ against lefties they are going to need him on the 26 man.  That leaves Buxton, Wallner, Outman and Larnach to battle it out.  Not sure if they will want to carry 5 outfielders, but they have ways to work around it if needed.

Larnach sure does look like the odd man out.  It makes more sense to get Roden in there and see what he can do and Rodriguez isn't far behind.  Somethings gotta give and he looks like the most likely candidate.

[Brandon]

Austin Martin has a claim for an OF spot as well

 

[IndianaTwin]

From the OP:

"As things stand, the Twins favor Wallner and Roden for regular roles early in 2026, with Outman serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field." 

Have the Twins made statements to this effect? The word on TD is to expect Martin in the lineup and I've also read of speculation on Keaschall relocating to the outfield.

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the OP:

"As things stand, the Twins favor Wallner and Roden for regular roles early in 2026, with Outman serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field." 

Have the Twins made statements to this effect? The word on TD is to expect Martin in the lineup and I've also read of speculation on Keaschall relocating to the outfield.

Why would they put a  gent who has never played outfield and des not have a good throwing arm  , in the outfield?

It will be his turn t see if he is a competent 2nd baseman.

[IndianaTwin]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

Why would they put a  gent who has never played outfield and des not have a good throwing arm  , in the outfield?

It will be his turn t see if he is a competent 2nd baseman.

I'm not arguing for this, but in 2024 he played nearly as much CF as 2B. My understanding is that they didn't use him in the outfield in 2025 because of his return from Tommy John surgery. 

 

From a December story: “'It could be really valuable if he could run out to left field or center field along the way,' Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll said. 'We’re going to have some more formal conversations on what all that is going to look like pretty soon.' In the minors Keaschall played 173 2/3 innings in the outfield, all of which came in center field. His speed makes him an ideal fit there, and his arm strength has never been an issue, prior to Tommy John."

[Parfigliano]

24 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the OP:

"As things stand, the Twins favor Wallner and Roden for regular roles early in 2026, with Outman serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field." 

Have the Twins made statements to this effect? The word on TD is to expect Martin in the lineup and I've also read of speculation on Keaschall relocating to the outfield.

Outman is barely an  AAA level player so of course Falvey has him penciled into the 26 man roster.

[DJL44]

Looks like they also avoided arbitration with Jeffers ($6.7M). Too bad they couldn't get him to sign an extension.

[Chembry]

34 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm not arguing for this, but in 2024 he played nearly as much CF as 2B. My understanding is that they didn't use him in the outfield in 2025 because of his return from Tommy John surgery. 

 

From a December story: “'It could be really valuable if he could run out to left field or center field along the way,' Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll said. 'We’re going to have some more formal conversations on what all that is going to look like pretty soon.' In the minors Keaschall played 173 2/3 innings in the outfield, all of which came in center field. His speed makes him an ideal fit there, and his arm strength has never been an issue, prior to Tommy John."

I found a prep scouting report when I was digging some information.  In that report, Keaschall was reported at throwing 83mph.  His average last year was 74.7 mph with a max of 78.3 mph.  It's a reasonable assumption that he will get back to at least 83 mph and probably higher than that given that his body has developed more.  However, at 83mph. that would put him in the 40-45th percentile in MLB and on the lower end of LFs, on par with Brandon Nimmo, Riley Greene, Max Kepler, Andrew Benintendi range for LF.  

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Outman is barely an  AAA level player so of course Falvey has him penciled into the 26 man roster.

No front office person has ever made that comment. When they traded for Outman, he was sent to the minor leagues in favor of Wallner, Buxton, Martin and Roden being the outfielders with Larnach also available . Outman did nothing to move up the ladder after Roden was injured. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

No agreement reached with Joe Ryan. I fully sense he's not happy with this organization. Look out Falvey.

[arby58]

18 hours ago, RpR said:

Why would they put a  gent who has never played outfield and des not have a good throwing arm  , in the outfield?

It will be his turn t see if he is a competent 2nd baseman.

He's played some in the outfield at each minor league stop along the way to MLB, with the only exception being AAA in 2025, when he was coming back from Tommy John surgery.  

[jmlease1]

18 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

No agreement reached with Joe Ryan. I fully sense he's not happy with this organization. Look out Falvey.

or the PA pushed for him to be an arbitration test case this year. Or his agent told him, "we can win this, it's no big deal".

It's all speculation. And if either side goes too far or lets this impact the future relationship, then they're both foolish. But people get messed up because of pride. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

No need to panic early on Ryan. The hearings are at least 2 to 3 weeks away. It is pretty standard practice for teams to exchange numbers with players and then find something in the middle. I suspect that will be what happens. As for Larnach, I agree with the rest of you guys. The likely thing is to trade him for a not so great relief pitcher or someone coming off an injury who was once good. Hey, that’s better than this releasing the guy if you can pull it off.

Guys, Austin Martin was one of our best players the last two months of last year. That doesn’t mean he will be this year, but that should earn him the chance to try. He should play every day in the field, where he was above average and improving to way above average, and hit in the top of the order as long as he can maintain  that .370 OBP. We need an on base machine at the front of the order and he is the closest that we have to it. Start him, play him every day, and see what you got for 6 to 8 weeks. 

[Cris E]

27 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

 

Guys, Austin Martin was one of our best players the last two months of last year. That doesn’t mean he will be this year, but that should earn him the chance to try. He should play every day in the field, where he was above average and improving to way above average, and hit in the top of the order as long as he can maintain  that .370 OBP. We need an on base machine at the front of the order and he is the closest that we have to it. Start him, play him every day, and see what you got for 6 to 8 weeks. 

This. When people were suggesting taking a weak-armed 2B to left field I wanted to say "Hey, we're already doing that." Let's finish that one before discarding another infielder. It's not like there's a better 2B queued behind LK.