The Top Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2026: Part 4 (1-5)

[TwinsDr2021]

51 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I agree, that is a problem - however, the OP's claim was that the Twins didn't develop major league players. Injuries have derailed many a player who had developed into a MLB talent. The other developed player I mentioned was Ober, and he has a career WAR of 9.2. For that matter, SWR has a WAR of 4.0. 

all that and 4 3rd place finishes or worse in 5 years. Which should have been enough to fire this FO.

[Brett]

Thanks Nick, this is really thought provoking.

So here’s my question: If 1/3 of this list aren’t on the big league roster yet, how should I think about when our next legit championship window should open? Is it 2 years away? More than that?

[bean5302]

It's hard to evaluate these players when it comes to their asset value to the Twins. It depends on whether or not the Twins are trying to compete, and what metrics are valued.

Keaschall didn't hit in AAA, and he was below average at MLB with Luis Arraez like power (and walk rates) in the second half of his MLB stint. There's plenty to like with his speed and upside, but the way he's being touted almost like a guaranteed stud remind me of Danny Santana's future as a career All Star SS.

Lopez's value all comes in the form of a playoff worthy rotation arm and a steady force for a competitive team's rotation. 

Ryan brings everything Lopez does PLUS trade value if the Twins pivot from trying to compete.

Obviously Jenkins and Culpepper are all future value, but there is a chasm between the two when it comes to national recognition and expectations which drives trade value. Jenkins blew the doors off AA, but initially floundered at AA. Hopefully, Culpepper's AAA adjustment is far less severe. I don't think I'd have Culpepper in the top 5. Feels too bullish.

 

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Great series Nick... 3 bonus questions for you (and the class):

Which player would you pick as 

1. The biggest riser (in ranking) within this group of 20 next year

2. The biggest regression (in ranking) within this group of 20 next year

3. The player not in this Top 20 most likely to rank the highest on this list next year.

Love these! Would be fun to hear more from others on this, but my quick-reaction picks are:

Biggest riser: Prielipp

Biggest regression: Keaschall (bean voices some valid outlook concerns in the post above)

Newcomer: Aside from the #3 pick next June, who is all but guaranteed to jump into the top 5, I'm gonna go with Alan Roden or Kendrys Rojas. Not so much because I'm a big believer in either, but because I NEED the Twins to be right about one of these guys. Varland certainly would've been in my top 20 this year if still around.

[arby58]

56 minutes ago, Brett said:

Thanks Nick, this is really thought provoking.

So here’s my question: If 1/3 of this list aren’t on the big league roster yet, how should I think about when our next legit championship window should open? Is it 2 years away? More than that?

My non-Nick personal opinion is if there is a 2027 season, the Twins could be in 'legit championship window.' This could be their starting line-up:

1. Buxton RF
2. Keaschall 1B
3. Jenkins CF
4. Wallner/Roden DH
5. Lewis 3B
6. Emma LF
7. Lee 2B
8. C
9. Culpepper SS

Martin is the utility player, maybe DeBarge. with Gonzalez and Mendez in the outfield.

Starting Pitching:
1. Ryan
2. Lopez
3. Matthews
4. SWR
5.Bradley

Bullpen:
1. Sands
2. Funderburk
3. Prielipp
4. Festa
5. Rojas
6. Reya

Obviously, Catcher is a short-term issue (Tait probably 2028), but the pitching staff looks really solid. Ober can be traded for a catcher(?), and there are some other chips as well, especially since Abel isn't slotted here. If he performs, maybe SWR is also a chip.
 

[gil4]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

Lee, Lewis, and Wallner all have positive WAR - which is the definition of 'average or better everyday major league players.'

Positive WAR just means they are better than the average AAAA guy you can call up to replace him.  I believe 2 WAR is the guideline for a good starter.

[1985Fan]

Great piece that generates lots of thought about what could be, both short and long term. I’m hopeful that the highly touted prospects are able to advance and succeed at the MLB level. I also see that much of the value on this list is generated from their trade value. Thats a problem for this FO since they don’t trade their top rated prospects. As others have pointed out here, this FO track record for players development is poor at best. As far as recent Twins player development under this FO, I can’t recall any prospects that have turned into all-stars. Joe Ryan was developed by the Rays, so outside of him, I can’t think of any. 
I put a lot more value on young guys with MLB experience. Guys like SWR, Bradley, Abel, Keaschall, and Lee. They’ve shown there is talent there, with flashes of all-star level talent. They should be higher than prospects that haven’t reached MLB yet. I get the thought behind these rankings, but a bird in hand is worth two in the bush (or something like that). 

[JADBP]

Buxton should be much, much higher! 

If you are looking at who can drive success in the future, it has to be the relentlessly faithful Buxton.  He is the heart and soul of the Twins team right now.  And, he is the single most talented players on the team in every way.  He's our only five tool player on the field.  Even as he is aging, he brings it every night.  He has to be #1.  

He's expensive because he's earned it.  

[MinnInPa]

20 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

As a 20 year old in AA he put a .912 OPS, and .719 in AAA. 

Would you prefer he was playing in A+ doing better than he did as a 19 year old? (.862)

Sometimes guys with his type of skills don't need to dominating before moving on,  (Jackson Merrill for Chourio for example both have lower career minor league OPS than Jenkins) Would I like to see his number more like Langord, yes but he also played college ball. 

 

i still look at batting average, RBI and K ratio...I'm old school..dont even follow all the new stats

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

i still look at batting average, RBI and K ratio...I'm old school..dont even follow all the new stats

so OBP (.399) and SLG (.464) are new? 

Jenkins has a minor league batting average of .295, 114 RBI in 854 plate appearances (115 walks, 137 K's) with a 16% K ratio and still below 20% if you exclude walks all while still under the age of 21.

[sweetmusicviola16]

In all honesty I would view Joe Ryan as our top asset right now. I think many others would too.. So what does the organization do? They take him to arb court over 500k. If Ober is worth 5.2mil after that lousy season and injury concerns then Joe Ryan is worth 6.35mil. For those who have dreamed of a Ryan extension, forget about it. My guess is Joe will be requesting a trade soon if he already hasn't. Such a well run organization we have here. 

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Great series Nick... 3 bonus questions for you (and the class):

Which player would you pick as 

1. The biggest riser (in ranking) within this group of 20 next year

2. The biggest regression (in ranking) within this group of 20 next year

3. The player not in this Top 20 most likely to rank the highest on this list next year.

1) Culpepper or Tait.

2) Joe Ryan. Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Buxton are all declining assets, but Ryan loses the most trade value after this incredibly cheap season.

3) The 2026 #1 draft pick. If not him, I will pick Dasan Hill.

[Nick Nelson]

On 1/8/2026 at 2:24 PM, arby58 said:

My non-Nick personal opinion is if there is a 2027 season, the Twins could be in 'legit championship window.'
 

This is the same conclusion I reached and I'll dig a little deeper on it next week. The big looming question: can they stay afloat long enough to keep that possibility on the table? If the Twins reach the deadline this year and they're heading for another 90-loss season, it would probably be reckless not to just trade Ryan/Lopez and commit fully to the rebuild. 

[Major League Ready]

On 1/8/2026 at 2:24 PM, arby58 said:

My non-Nick personal opinion is if there is a 2027 season, the Twins could be in 'legit championship window.' This could be their starting line-up:

What happens to their "window in 2028 when they lose both Ryan and Lopez after 2027?  The consensus here and I basically agree, is that Ryan and Lopez are critical cogs.   IDK that I would be managing for a one-year window, especially when that year is probably a short year.   IMO, they need to amass more long-term/cost-controlled talent if they are going to create a legit Championship window.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

What happens to their "window in 2028 when they lose both Ryan and Lopez after 2027?  The consensus here and I basically agree, is that Ryan and Lopez are critical cogs.   IDK that I would be managing for a one-year window, especially when that year is probably a short year.   IMO, they need to amass more long-term/cost-controlled talent if they are going to create a legit Championship window.

Ryan was a decent starter but not 'other world' until last year. Lopez has been steadily good but never up to the 4.5 WAR Ryan put up last year - his strongest suit (before last year) was a really good innings eater. In other words, there isn't any reason the Twins can't develop another elite starting pitcher or two. They've got some of their own prospects that should be ready by 2027 or 2028 - Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper. They've also got Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Gallagher that they acquired in last year's trading sell-off.  I don't think the cupboard is bare starting-pitching-wise.

It's also possible that they could use Prielipp in relief for a year or two and transition him back to being a starter, if he can build up his arm - ala Santana.

 

[arby58]

On 1/8/2026 at 3:38 PM, 1985Fan said:

As far as recent Twins player development under this FO, I can’t recall any prospects that have turned into all-stars. Joe Ryan was developed by the Rays, so outside of him, I can’t think of any. 

The ASG as a measure of ability is problematic - every team has to have a representative, fan voting is part of the equation, it really only measures performance in half a season, etc. Jhoan Duran didn't make the All Star team but was plenty worthy in at least a couple of years.  The Twins developed Spencer Steer, then traded him as part of the Mahle package in 2022, and he promptly was 6th in ROY balloting in the National League in 2023. 

[arby58]

12 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

i still look at batting average, RBI and K ratio...I'm old school..dont even follow all the new stats

RBI is a stat of opportunity - the only way to drive them in is somebody being on base or hitting a HR. Batting average is inferior to OBP. K ratio is fine - and Jenkins is good on that one.

Still, OPS is far superior to batting average, and Arraez is the poster child for why that is. Even though he has a high batting average, most of his hits are singles, which takes a lot of additional effort to score him (particularly since he doesn't run very well). It's part of why he is among the league leaders in batting average but not in runs scored. 

[arby58]

10 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

In all honesty I would view Joe Ryan as our top asset right now. I think many others would too.. So what does the organization do? They take him to arb court over 500k. If Ober is worth 5.2mil after that lousy season and injury concerns then Joe Ryan is worth 6.35mil. For those who have dreamed of a Ryan extension, forget about it. My guess is Joe will be requesting a trade soon if he already hasn't. Such a well run organization we have here. 

I'm not sure anybody realistically expects an extension. Ryan has two years to prove last year wasn't an aberation. I don't expect it will effect his performance on the field. Asking for a trade doesn't mean you have to be traded. I expect Ryan will be in prove it mode this and next year.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Ryan was a decent starter but not 'other world' until last year. Lopez has been steadily good but never up to the 4.5 WAR Ryan put up last year - his strongest suit (before last year) was a really good innings eater. In other words, there isn't any reason the Twins can't develop another elite starting pitcher or two. They've got some of their own prospects that should be ready by 2027 or 2028 - Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper. They've also got Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Gallagher that they acquired in last year's trading sell-off.  I don't think the cupboard is bare starting-pitching-wise.

It's also possible that they could use Prielipp in relief for a year or two and transition him back to being a starter, if he can build up his arm - ala Santana.

 

I agree there is a good chance several of their prospects, including their SP prospects, could become assets over the next couple of years.  The suggestion that this terrible team can open a window of legit contention is very optimistic.  What do you suppose the odds are Cleveland, Tampa, or Milwaukee would squander the opportunity to trade for assets that could contribute for 6-7 years in the exact same position.  Their track record would suggest it's pretty much certain they would handle this differently.  Their track record for putting a good product on the field would suggest the Twin's would be wise to take note but I don't a wise approach going on with this organization.  Not of the goal is a real contender.  If you want to pretend to be trying to build a true contender, they are doing great!

[arby58]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree there is a good chance several of their prospects, including their SP prospects, could become assets over the next couple of years.  The suggestion that this terrible team can open a window of legit contention is very optimistic.  What do you suppose the odds are Cleveland, Tampa, or Milwaukee would squander the opportunity to trade for assets that could contribute for 6-7 years in the exact same position.  Their track record would suggest it's pretty much certain they would handle this differently.  Their track record for putting a good product on the field would suggest the Twin's would be wise to take note but I don't a wise approach going on with this organization.  Not of the goal is a real contender.  If you want to pretend to be trying to build a true contender, they are doing great!

It is interesting that other models do not believe this is a bad team, even as currently constructed. I will grant you that these same models have projected it to be better than they ended up being, although the tear down at the end of last year has something to do with that. Maybe new leadership will help.

They retooled last year with what I believe was a clear indicator they were looking beyond 2026. They do have a lot valuable pieces.

 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, arby58 said:

It is interesting that other models do not believe this is a bad team, even as currently constructed. I will grant you that these same models have projected it to be better than they ended up being, although the tear down at the end of last year has something to do with that. Maybe new leadership will help.

They retooled last year with what I believe was a clear indicator they were looking beyond 2026. They do have a lot valuable pieces.

 

If everything goes great it might not be a bad team but the odds of it being a good team are remote.  They were bad before the sell-off and they were terrible after the sell-off and they have done very little to replace what they sold-off.  Once again, they are going to hope that a bunch of players improve dramatically.  The successful organizations that are disadvantaged in terms of revenue have been successful because they manage their assets quite differently. 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 1/9/2026 at 9:57 PM, arby58 said:

It is interesting that other models do not believe this is a bad team, even as currently constructed. I will grant you that these same models have projected it to be better than they ended up being, although the tear down at the end of last year has something to do with that. Maybe new leadership will help.

They retooled last year with what I believe was a clear indicator they were looking beyond 2026. They do have a lot valuable pieces.

 

If you compare the opening day 26 man roster for the 2025 Twins to the 26 man roster right now, the 2025 one is considerably better and that team won 70 games. With that said I have high hopes guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee will be much better this year and a rookie or two will step up. but I have reservations about this team staying healthy enough to compete for a division title because that is something they haven't really done (staying healthy that is).