Why The Twins Shouldn't Sign First Baseman Paul Goldschmidt

[Nate Palmer]

The Minnesota Twins must see an improvement in their offense in order to have a chance at being competitive in 2026. The team has an obvious need for a right-handed, impact bat with first base and designated hitter as the most obvious positions where that addition could be added to the roster. Could free agent Paul Goldschmidt make sense for the Twins?

Earlier in his career, Goldschmidt was a constant in All-Star and MVP conversations. He won the MVP award in the National League in 2022 while he was with the St. Louis Cardinals. Since 2022, Goldschmidt has not played anywhere near that MVP form, with a significant decline across many statistical categories. 

Even with that decline in performance, Goldschmidt looks like he would be a passable everyday player in Minnesota based on the traditional stats we look toward to measure production. With the Yankees in 2025, Goldschmidt slashed .274/.328/.403 with a .731 OPS. In 2025, Twins first basemen as a collective slashed .231/.304/.383 with a .687 OPS. With Kody Clemens currently the front runner for time at first base in 2026, a combination of Clemens and Goldschmidt looks intriguing when we simply look at the stats laid out above. 

A closer look reveals plenty of reasons to grow concerned about the 38-year-old. Often, when we look at batters and try to gauge where they are headed, bat speed is an important indicator. Goldschmidt, in the three years of data we have on swing speed, saw an increase in bat speed from 2023. An increase in bat speed is good, but what came with it may not be. With that increased speed, Goldschmidt, especially in 2025, began to swing under the ball more than ever. 

In 2024, Goldschmidt’s under% according to Statcast was 22.0% and rose to 27.1% last season. Subsequently, his flyball rate increased over the same time frame from 56.3% to 61.1%. The increase in flyball rate isn’t necessarily a concern in and of itself, as Goldschmidt has had similar flyball rates in some of his more productive seasons. The flyballs, combined with where the ball is being contacted, seem to have decreased much of Goldschmidt’s power.  

Year by year, since his MVP season, Goldschmidt has seen a decline in several secondary stats that indicate potential power output. 

	xSLG	xwOBA	Barrel %
2023	0.447	0.367	12
2024	0.414	0.329	10.7
2025	0.403	0.328	7.9

By looking at expected stats, we eliminate the possibility that Goldschmidt has simply had bad luck. Instead, his reduction in production and power truly seems to be a product of a true decline. While in the Twins' recent past, the club has found success in signing aging sluggers such as Nelson Cruz and Jim Thome , Goldschmidt does not seem to be aging as gracefully. 

The production may level off and be similar in 2026 as it was in 2025, but at what cost for Goldschmidt’s next team, and is that cost worth it for the Twins? It seems unlikely that it would be wise for the Twins to go in the direction of Goldschmidt, even as desperate as they are for offensive production. The Twins will need to find treasure this offseason, but a Goldschmidt signing has a good chance of turning up fool’s gold. 

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[Jeff K]

Forgetting the numbers.  If the window for success were open, you could consider another old rental.  The Twins either need to develop a young first baseman, convert an existing player to first or trade for a young, controllable player.  The window is not open, so another one year rental makes no sense to me.

[rv78]

Falvey has said repeatedly that he is not looking to trade the Twins "big three", Ryan, Lopez and Buxton. Instead he wants to add to the roster to make it competitive for the ALCentral Division. He believes the Twins can compete for the Division by adding. Unfortunately this has always been his thought process and the players he adds don't make a difference. Goldschmidt looks to be exactly like the type of player that Falvey would go for if he can get past his love for Kody Clemens. Until the Pohlads untie the purse-strings or sell the team, fire Falvey and hire someone who knows what they are doing, 2026 and beyond will just be more seasons of pretending and NOT contending. 

[sstolen]

Like him, but perhaps better to go young w this roster spot. 

[DJL44]

Sounds like he is headed back to Arizona. Twins don’t have to worry about him.

[TNtwins85]

Even a shell of himself Goldschmidt is a signing that helps. Anybody above the Ty France should be a target. With them supposedly keeping the big 3 they need to sign at least one decent bat to make that plan believable/ even worth it to compete. A big splash trade for a bat is what really needs to happen but we’ll see. I’m not sure if the recent news clears the waters at all but simply makes it more murky by their definition of “compete” in the central.

[Mahoning]

The Twins' vaunted "productive" farm system hasn't produced a remotely plausible first baseman since . . . when? Justin Morneau?

[dogman]

Bring back Santana or even bring back Sano to tryout in Spring training playing first and dh... Sano has changed his batting approach and is tearing up the Dominican League.  Or bring up a prospect from the minor system.   Buxton at first ?

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Forgetting the numbers.  If the window for success were open, you could consider another old rental.  The Twins either need to develop a young first baseman, convert an existing player to first or trade for a young, controllable player.  The window is not open, so another one year rental makes no sense to me.

The window of contention is always open to win the Central Division.  

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Sounds like he is headed back to Arizona. Twins don’t have to worry about him.

For a vacation? 😄

[mluebker]

50 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

The Twins' vaunted "productive" farm system hasn't produced a remotely plausible first baseman since . . . when? Justin Morneau?

Their obsession with converting guys who can hit, but aren’t great defenders elsewhere or picking up other team’s cast-offs in the bargain aisle in early February seem to have become team traditions. Apparently first base no longer is a key position. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Goldschmidt has had a great career, but its not where the Twins should be spending money. He had a .731 OPS last season. As a Twin, Kody Clemens had a .725 OPS. Kody is younger and at this point plays better defense at 1B. If these 2 are the choices, I'd stick with Clemens. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, dogman said:

Bring back Santana or even bring back Sano to tryout in Spring training playing first and dh... Sano has changed his batting approach and is tearing up the Dominican League.  Or bring up a prospect from the minor system.   Buxton at first ?

-1 next to your name.  What does that even mean?

[bean5302]

Goldschmidt probably has another year of solid league average bat in him. Maybe a brief rebound, but he doesn't project like a Nelson Cruz.

[Fred]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

Falvey has said repeatedly that he is not looking to trade the Twins "big three", Ryan, Lopez and Buxton. Instead he wants to add to the roster to make it competitive for the ALCentral Division. He believes the Twins can compete for the Division by adding. Unfortunately this has always been his thought process and the players he adds don't make a difference. Goldschmidt looks to be exactly like the type of player that Falvey would go for if he can get past his love for Kody Clemens. Until the Pohlads untie the purse-strings or sell the team, fire Falvey and hire someone who knows what they are doing, 2026 and beyond will just be more seasons of pretending and NOT contending. 

I believe that everyone attending a Falvey press conference is in danger of developing lung cancer from all the smoke being blown around

[ashbury]

I was preparing a passionate article on why the Twins shouldn't sign Lou Gehrig to play first base for them, but this one pretty much covered all the points I was going to raise, except that Goldschmidt isn't deceased.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

I was preparing a passionate article on why the Twins shouldn't sign Lou Gehrig to play first base for them, but this one pretty much covered all the points I was going to raise, except that Goldschmidt isn't deceased.

This year his bat might be.

[Jeff K]

23 hours ago, old nurse said:

The window of contention is always open to win the Central Division.  

As a long shot, sure, anything can happen.  But can the Twins compete with the best teams in the AL with their current bunch.  I don't see it.

[twinfan]

With the Twins being a small market team with a limited budget, I don't see the need to sign Goldy. He had a great start with the Yankees but didn't do much in the second half of the season. He has been on a winner and brings that tangible asset but we'd be better off spending our money elsewhere. And Cody Clemens may not be the answer for first base either.