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Posted
1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

But what makes you more money? Reducing payroll or being a continual competitor in the postseason? Why do you always hear the phrase “We want to create a year to year contender”? Because a year to year contender makes you way more money, although not guaranteed, than simply collecting a revenue sharing check. Each year you might get $60M as a revenue receiver. But if you create a continual contender and you bring in not only that but all the merchandise and gate revenue it only makes sense to be a contender rather than a bottom dweller. From a mid market to small market perspective.

Well, they've apparently been losing money while trying to be a continual competitor in the postseason already for the last half decade.  If that was working, they wouldn't have brought in limited partners in the first place.  It's possible these limited partners threw a bunch of money at them and said "keep doing what you're doing!" but I just don't think that's likely.  Anything they're saving in debt service now potentially has to be paid out as a return on limited partner investments, so I don't see some massive cash influx coming in that way.

Long term, there is certainly more upside to be a continual contender.  But short term it is a risk.  They could very easily lose money if things don't work out.  Going Nutting on the operation guarantees a positive return.

  Putting myself in the shoes of a limited partner, I see the potential for a very big return in the form of appreciation in the value of my investment if the CBA and resulting media deals break favorably for small/mid market teams.  Appreciating franchise value is the most attractive aspect to owning a sports franchise from an investment perspective.   But that is also not a guarantee to materialize.  So in the meantime, I want my guaranteed return now until the landscape potentially shifts in a couple years

Posted
15 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

This is pure speculation. Everyone is just assuming. In the same article Falvey was quoted as hoping to be able to add to the team. So in that are we going to assume that they’re going to sign Kyle Tucker? Maybe Bo Bichette? While we’re at it let’s trade for Ohtani too! I mean, if we’re speculating why don’t we go both ways? Why does it always have to be negative?

Simply put, because the best indicator of future actions is past actions. 

 

Can you point to anything in the last X number of years to provide evidence that we should indeed be hopeful about anything regarding this team? Because I cannot. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

We might see a lot of the young guys by 2028 but to assume they are going to hit the ground running and turn this team into a legit contender right away is wishful thinking to me.  Could happen, but I think it's much more likely that there will be growing pains and maybe 2030 is when the club comes into its own. 2028 will be too early to judge the success or lack thereof.

But whether its 2028 or 2030 this plan requires the Twins to let the young guys play and probably trade off some of Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez.  It requires committing to an actual rebuild, not...whatever it is Falvey is doing now.  

It had better be by 2027 and 2028 at the latest. If not then Falvey failed this attempt and has or will be fired. If it takes till 2030 to see anything you just wasted this crop of prospects. Your star building block in Walker Jenkins will be 26 and a year away from FA if you didn’t sign him. Culpepper will be pushing 30 along with Houston, ERod, Rojas, Abel, Prielipp.  Luke Keaschall will be entering his FA season.  2030 will be when they try to cash all these guys in for new prospects and probably blowing the whole thing up again. It’s 2028 or bust.

Posted
14 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I appreciate your optimism.  The “let’s see how things go until the summer”might be the actual plan. But there is no chance in Hades the Nephew is coughing up a payroll of $130MM. Zero chance. $70MM would be a better target.

Nah, with that expected approximate payroll the smart move is to sell at peak price (which includes peak cost savings).  So selling sooner rather than later should get the best return and save the most salary.

My wish for Buck is that he does exactly what he wants and what is best for him and his family. He earned our respect and that no trade clause - neither were free. 

Why? The Opening Day payroll last year was $140 million. There is no reason they have to slash it substantially from that. The TV revenue will actually go UP with the ESPN deal this year. If they cut to $70 million they will be looking at barely 1 million in attendance in 2025 and then a works stoppage. It will cost them more than they will save.

Posted
1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Well, they've apparently been losing money while trying to be a continual competitor in the postseason already for the last half decade.  If that was working, they wouldn't have brought in limited partners in the first place.  It's possible these limited partners threw a bunch of money at them and said "keep doing what you're doing!" but I just don't think that's likely.  Anything they're saving in debt service now potentially has to be paid out as a return on limited partner investments, so I don't see some massive cash influx coming in that way.

Long term, there is certainly more upside to be a continual contender.  But short term it is a risk.  They could very easily lose money if things don't work out.  Going Nutting on the operation guarantees a positive return.

  Putting myself in the shoes of a limited partner, I see the potential for a very big return in the form of appreciation in the value of my investment if the CBA and resulting media deals break favorably for small/mid market teams.  Appreciating franchise value is the most attractive aspect to owning a sports franchise from an investment perspective.   But that is also not a guarantee to materialize.  So in the meantime, I want my guaranteed return now until the landscape potentially shifts in a couple years

Yeah, but it’s impossible the Twins as a franchise lost so much money year over year to be $500M in the hole. The Twins out of all their assets and businesses is simply the one that didn’t lose money and allowed them to shift the debt burden on to. There’s no way they were willing to sign Correa if the Twins as a franchise were losing money. It’s all they’re other poor investments and businesses that lost money not the Twins. If you were the Pohlads in the economy of the last 5 years where do you think you could get investors to invest? A commercial real estate market that is likely to collapse any year now or an MLB franchise that grows no matter what year over year and there’s only 30 of them? If I had $250M to invest I’d take the sure thing. Idk about you. The debt isn’t a Twins franchise problem it’s a Pohlad business problem. It’s impossible the Twins franchise lost half a billion dollars. They weren’t the Marlins the last 5 years.

Posted
13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

To be perfectly honest I don’t care how much the bullpen costs. More money theoretically means more certainty they won’t be a complete disaster. But they are kings of SSS for a reason. All it takes for your plan to go south is that closer, set up guy, or lefty having a bad season. 

 The odds of the Twins finding 4 quality relievers in 1 offseason is slim to none. And slim is leaving town. It took them 4+ years to build an above average bullpen before they gutted it. 

Teams rebuild bullpens all the time. You have to be right on the closer, yes. But you don't have to go 4-4. I would also (and assume they might be) convert at least one of Mathews or Festa to the bullpen. Also, the reverse can be true. If they are in contention, adding a reliever is the easiest move at the trade deadline. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Why? The Opening Day payroll last year was $140 million. There is no reason they have to slash it substantially from that. The TV revenue will actually go UP with the ESPN deal this year. If they cut to $70 million they will be looking at barely 1 million in attendance in 2025 and then a works stoppage. It will cost them more than they will save.

You think they'll lose 70 million in revenue if they cut payroll, which is what your math is saying? Nah......they'll make a lot of money with a tiny payroll. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Deadfan said:

Simply put, because the best indicator of future actions is past actions. 

 

Can you point to anything in the last X number of years to provide evidence that we should indeed be hopeful about anything regarding this team? Because I cannot. 

Depends on your definition of “hopeful”

Posted
Just now, howeda7 said:

Teams rebuild bullpens all the time. You have to be right on the closer, yes. But you don't have to go 4-4. I would also (and assume they might be) convert at least one of Mathews or Festa to the bullpen. 

I mean, the Dodgers couldn't build one last year. I can't imagine any team has built a bullpen starting with 1-2 guys.....but I could be wrong. But I doubt it. 

Posted
Just now, Mike Sixel said:

You think they'll lose 70 million in revenue if they cut payroll, which is what your math is saying? Nah......they'll make a lot of money with a tiny payroll. 

Not all at once, but over time, yes. 500,000 less attendance in 2026 can easily mean $25 million less in revenue. It will also mean less TV revenue etc. And the complete nuking of the fan base will bleed into 2027 and beyond. 

Posted
1 minute ago, howeda7 said:

Teams rebuild bullpens all the time. You have to be right on the closer, yes. But you don't have to go 4-4. I would also (and assume they might be) convert at least one of Mathews or Festa to the bullpen. 

Yes! The Bluejays got to within a couple of outs with Jeff Hoffman as the closer. He gave up more HR’s than any other closer. You need competence not excellence. There’s no better example than the Twins bullpen of the last 3 years. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, the Dodgers couldn't build one last year. I can't imagine any team has built a bullpen starting with 1-2 guys.....but I could be wrong. But I doubt it. 

I'm not suggesting they will immediately have a top 5 bullpen, but you just need competence that won't train-wreck 2 wins per week as a starting point. If you get the right closer and decent set-up guy plus Sands, Mathews etc. that's a fairly reasonable goal. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, the Dodgers couldn't build one last year. I can't imagine any team has built a bullpen starting with 1-2 guys.....but I could be wrong. But I doubt it. 

The dodgers had a terrible BP. All the stars and they relied on a few failed starters and a rookie. As I said above you need competence not excellence.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
7 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Teams rebuild bullpens all the time. You have to be right on the closer, yes. But you don't have to go 4-4. I would also (and assume they might be) convert at least one of Mathews or Festa to the bullpen. Also, the reverse can be true. If they are in contention, adding a reliever is the easiest move at the trade deadline. 

This is a popular myth but completely, totally false.

Building a good pen is one of the most difficult things to do in baseball. For one thing you need at least 10 effective guys.

Posted

I can't recall where I saw the #'s, but in 2023 they supposedly lost $12 million on operations, while having a $155 million payroll and $54 million in local TV $$. They have also always said that ~55% of revenues go to payroll. Using that as a baseline, the "break even" payroll in 2023 would have been ~$148 million. 

In 2024, the TV revenue dropped to ~$42 million. That would lower the breakeven payroll to $141 million. They actually cut it to $135, probably because they only went back to Diamond at the last minute and were assuming it would be lower.

In 2025, they raised it to $140 million. No one knows the true TV revenue for 2025, but I'd estimate it at about $30 million. The break even payroll would be ~$134. They would have gotten under it with all the trades, though I'm sure attendance was far lower than projected. They probably lost $$ but not a ton.

Even holding TV revenue the same for 2026, a $130 million payroll would be very reasonable. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This is a popular myth but completely, totally false.

Building a good pen is one of the most difficult things to do in baseball. For one thing you need at least 10 effective guys.

10? When is the last time they had 10 effective guys. We made the play-offs in 2017 with Brandon Kintzler as our closer AFTER trading him. 

Posted
3 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

I have no problem with Twins trading Buxton. Twins are rebuilding, Buxton will not be part of next competitive window. Sell high on Buxton now. It is not so much a money issue at this point, but Twins acquiring potential pieces for next competitive window.

Fans will be severely underwhelmed with the return he will bring. He's 32, probably has no more than 2 years left playing CF and a massive injury history. He's worth far more in goodwill/being the face of the franchise to the Twins than he will ever bring in return in a trade. 

Posted
5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not disagreeing, but it could be genius? Trade away all payroll, stock pile prospects and when the work stoppage ends you are sitting on stud players and the ability to spend on free agency (assuming some sort of salary type cap is put in place)?

Now I have No, none, zero, zelch faith in this FO/Ownership, so it is likely they are just trying to figure out if they want Ham or Turkey for thanksgiving or possibly both, then actually improving the Twins going forward.

 

 

It could be genius as a GM, though I have zero faith in Falvey to do it correctly. 

Since Derek is also running the business side, which he is even more incompetent at , it's a terrible idea. This team is as unpopular as it has been since contraction. Gutting it further and then having a work stoppage will take it below that. It will take until 2030 to even hope to recover with the fan base. And since baseball is a slowly dying sport, it might never recover.

Posted
12 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

10? When is the last time they had 10 effective guys. We made the play-offs in 2017 with Brandon Kintzler as our closer AFTER trading him. 

They had the likes of Matt Belisle, Trevor Hildenberger, and Alan Busenitz pitching in the playoffs in 2017. That bullpen had zero chance of holding up in a deep playoff run.

Posted
2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, I know no one likes the POBO, but blaming him for slashing payroll is pretty absurd. There's enough to criticize him for, but selling off players to drop payroll isn't one of them. It's not like he WANTS to make his own job harder.

The only trade I believe he was told to make was Correa. The rest were him thinking he's the smartest guy in the room.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

They had the likes of Matt Belisle, Trevor Hildenberger, and Alan Busenitz pitching in the playoffs in 2017. That bullpen had zero chance of holding up in a deep playoff run.

I'm not suggesting instantly building a bullpen ready for a deep play-off run, just one capable of basic competence. 

Frankly, they have to spend SOME FA $$ on the bullpen whether they are contending or rebuilding. The last thing you want on a rebuilding team is a bunch of demoralizing blown leads.

Posted
37 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I can't recall where I saw the #'s, but in 2023 they supposedly lost $12 million on operations, while having a $155 million payroll and $54 million in local TV $$. They have also always said that ~55% of revenues go to payroll. Using that as a baseline, the "break even" payroll in 2023 would have been ~$148 million. 

In 2024, the TV revenue dropped to ~$42 million. That would lower the breakeven payroll to $141 million. They actually cut it to $135, probably because they only went back to Diamond at the last minute and were assuming it would be lower.

In 2025, they raised it to $140 million. No one knows the true TV revenue for 2025, but I'd estimate it at about $30 million. The break even payroll would be ~$134. They would have gotten under it with all the trades, though I'm sure attendance was far lower than projected. They probably lost $$ but not a ton.

Even holding TV revenue the same for 2026, a $130 million payroll would be very reasonable. 

Anyone that believes these numbers should be leary.... As MLB is claiming the Yankees are losing money. 

Posted
16 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Keeping the team only to gut it by trading Lopez, Ryan and Buxton and then go into a work stoppage would be so unbelievably dumb I still can't believe that's their plan. They might as well try to break the lease and move at that point. Target Field will be dead. 

I feel pretty good about the chances that they'd prefer to not field a team.  If they didn't have to actually play the games - no need to hire anyone to work during games, etc.  The only thing that matters to the owners is money - full stop

Posted
40 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, but it’s impossible the Twins as a franchise lost so much money year over year to be $500M in the hole. The Twins out of all their assets and businesses is simply the one that didn’t lose money and allowed them to shift the debt burden on to. There’s no way they were willing to sign Correa if the Twins as a franchise were losing money. It’s all they’re other poor investments and businesses that lost money not the Twins. If you were the Pohlads in the economy of the last 5 years where do you think you could get investors to invest? A commercial real estate market that is likely to collapse any year now or an MLB franchise that grows no matter what year over year and there’s only 30 of them? If I had $250M to invest I’d take the sure thing. Idk about you. The debt isn’t a Twins franchise problem it’s a Pohlad business problem. It’s impossible the Twins franchise lost half a billion dollars. They weren’t the Marlins the last 5 years.

I never claimed anything close to saying that they were $500M in the operating hole to create the debt.   Capital improvements at Target Field are a not insignificant part of that number that doesn't factor into their operating income, and almost all teams carry some level of debt on their books.  There's a level of debt that is responsible to carry on the books of a healthy business as it improves cash flow and accelerates investment.   But they did exactly what you suggest in increasing their payroll over their usual levels with Correa, Donaldson, Lopez, etc and that did not translate into huge profits, if there were any profits at all.  They tried it and it didn't work. 

Regarding the rest of their portfolio: if their other businesses are suffering to a degree that required leveraging the baseball team into the spot they're in (which I think is true to a certain degree), then this cash infusion the Twins received isn't solving those problems.  It's a temporary patch, not a cure.  Their commercial real estate portfolio is just as sickly as it was before the limited partners' capital infusion.  Given that, they're not going to start pouring money into the baseball team just to have to turn around and leverage it to support their other businesses again, especially since it's not just their money anymore.  And if the limited partners thought the Pohlads were going to continue to use the Twins as a piggybank to keep their other businesses afloat, they wouldn't be investing in the first place.  You're right, the limited partners don't want to invest in their commercial real estate, but they might as well be if they're going to continue to use the Twins in this way.  You can't separate the Twins franchise from the Pohlad's other businesses if they're still using one to prop up the other.  So profitability is a must, and that is guaranteed by slashing payroll short term

Think about this: if they really do intend to go right back to the payroll levels they've been at, then why are they being so coy about it?  They need a PR win in the worst way, and I'm sure they can see how season ticket renewals are going (I can't imagine they're doing gangbusters right now).  Per Gleeman, around 80% of ticket sales for the year take place before the season starts.  They'd have no reason not to be out front with it, unless there's some uncertainty around limited partner approval, which would open up a whole new set of problems.  Either way, I see no evidence beyond wishful thinking that the payroll will be anywhere near recent levels, at least in the short term. 

I hope I'm wrong because I want them to win.

Posted
1 hour ago, howeda7 said:

 If they cut to $70 million they will be looking at barely 1 million in attendance in 2025 and then a works stoppage. It will cost them more than they will save.

You haven't been following MLB very closely then.  Due to MLB's economic structure it is extremely profitable for revenue sharing teams slash payroll and lose.  See the Rockies, As, Pirates, et al. Between revenue sharing and new ESPN deal the team stumbled into and that's probably already above your $70m, and they will receive even if they lose every single game.  The gate from those 1 mil is then pure profit.  

A team doesn't hire Shelton, a guy who spent the last 5 years strategically losing in order to line a billionaire's pockets, because they are going to juice payrolls and give the Central a run in 2026.  

Posted
36 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I never claimed anything close to saying that they were $500M in the operating hole to create the debt.   Capital improvements at Target Field are a not insignificant part of that number that doesn't factor into their operating income, and almost all teams carry some level of debt on their books.  There's a level of debt that is responsible to carry on the books of a healthy business as it improves cash flow and accelerates investment.   But they did exactly what you suggest in increasing their payroll over their usual levels with Correa, Donaldson, Lopez, etc and that did not translate into huge profits, if there were any profits at all.  They tried it and it didn't work. 

Regarding the rest of their portfolio: if their other businesses are suffering to a degree that required leveraging the baseball team into the spot they're in (which I think is true to a certain degree), then this cash infusion the Twins received isn't solving those problems.  It's a temporary patch, not a cure.  Their commercial real estate portfolio is just as sickly as it was before the limited partners' capital infusion.  Given that, they're not going to start pouring money into the baseball team just to have to turn around and leverage it to support their other businesses again, especially since it's not just their money anymore.  And if the limited partners thought the Pohlads were going to continue to use the Twins as a piggybank to keep their other businesses afloat, they wouldn't be investing in the first place.  You're right, the limited partners don't want to invest in their commercial real estate, but they might as well be if they're going to continue to use the Twins in this way.  You can't separate the Twins franchise from the Pohlad's other businesses if they're still using one to prop up the other.  So profitability is a must, and that is guaranteed by slashing payroll short term

Think about this: if they really do intend to go right back to the payroll levels they've been at, then why are they being so coy about it?  They need a PR win in the worst way, and I'm sure they can see how season ticket renewals are going (I can't imagine they're doing gangbusters right now).  Per Gleeman, around 80% of ticket sales for the year take place before the season starts.  They'd have no reason not to be out front with it, unless there's some uncertainty around limited partner approval, which would open up a whole new set of problems.  Either way, I see no evidence beyond wishful thinking that the payroll will be anywhere near recent levels, at least in the short term. 

I hope I'm wrong because I want them to win.

If they intended to raise payroll back to last years level and spend 40mil on this years team it would seem beneficial to disclose this for marketing sake. So if they don't raise payroll back to that level to field a better team it makes zero sense to hold onto Ryan and Lopez. Zero. Even with improved play from Lewis, Lee, Wallner and a few others we have a 70 win team. This team has played since the 2024 AS break last place baseball. It's not a good team.  So if we get the improvement from some guys and sign a bunch of stopgaps we still only have a team that is going to win 75 games or so at best. So to get those extra 10 wins or so we throw away the value of Ryan and Lopez. We lose the potential of the guys that we could acquire who would help this team actually be a contender from 2028-2035. Plus by signing stopgaps we lose seeing the potential of the players we already have in the system who could get a full audition in 2026. They get mired in St.Paul for another season and quickly just disappear. It's a lose lose choice just for a few extra wins in 2026. Take the hit. Look, I don't like losing Ryan or Lopez either. But I hope Falvey makes the right choice for the long-term benefit of the franchise. Lots of teams looking for pitching right now. We'll still have Richardson, Zebby, Abel and Bradley and others that we already have and acquire. 

Posted
5 hours ago, Rufus said:

It may be news worthy but speculating about Buxton's moral code?  Come on how does this savant know what Buxton's moral code is?  

Yeah, I could do without the headline, but the content is relevant and it has nothing to do with pushing some sort of negative agenda. 

Posted
2 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, but it’s impossible the Twins as a franchise lost so much money year over year to be $500M in the hole. The Twins out of all their assets and businesses is simply the one that didn’t lose money and allowed them to shift the debt burden on to. There’s no way they were willing to sign Correa if the Twins as a franchise were losing money. It’s all they’re other poor investments and businesses that lost money not the Twins. If you were the Pohlads in the economy of the last 5 years where do you think you could get investors to invest? A commercial real estate market that is likely to collapse any year now or an MLB franchise that grows no matter what year over year and there’s only 30 of them? If I had $250M to invest I’d take the sure thing. Idk about you. The debt isn’t a Twins franchise problem it’s a Pohlad business problem. It’s impossible the Twins franchise lost half a billion dollars. They weren’t the Marlins the last 5 years.

One step further, it's impossible that Miami is losing money. The notion that these franchises somehow aren't printing $$ is laughable. There was real, reported interest in the Twins at $1.5B, that doesn't happen if the asset is bleeding money...

Posted
1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

I never claimed anything close to saying that they were $500M in the operating hole to create the debt.   Capital improvements at Target Field are a not insignificant part of that number that doesn't factor into their operating income, and almost all teams carry some level of debt on their books.  There's a level of debt that is responsible to carry on the books of a healthy business as it improves cash flow and accelerates investment.   But they did exactly what you suggest in increasing their payroll over their usual levels with Correa, Donaldson, Lopez, etc and that did not translate into huge profits, if there were any profits at all.  They tried it and it didn't work. 

Regarding the rest of their portfolio: if their other businesses are suffering to a degree that required leveraging the baseball team into the spot they're in (which I think is true to a certain degree), then this cash infusion the Twins received isn't solving those problems.  It's a temporary patch, not a cure.  Their commercial real estate portfolio is just as sickly as it was before the limited partners' capital infusion.  Given that, they're not going to start pouring money into the baseball team just to have to turn around and leverage it to support their other businesses again, especially since it's not just their money anymore.  And if the limited partners thought the Pohlads were going to continue to use the Twins as a piggybank to keep their other businesses afloat, they wouldn't be investing in the first place.  You're right, the limited partners don't want to invest in their commercial real estate, but they might as well be if they're going to continue to use the Twins in this way.  You can't separate the Twins franchise from the Pohlad's other businesses if they're still using one to prop up the other.  So profitability is a must, and that is guaranteed by slashing payroll short term

Think about this: if they really do intend to go right back to the payroll levels they've been at, then why are they being so coy about it?  They need a PR win in the worst way, and I'm sure they can see how season ticket renewals are going (I can't imagine they're doing gangbusters right now).  Per Gleeman, around 80% of ticket sales for the year take place before the season starts.  They'd have no reason not to be out front with it, unless there's some uncertainty around limited partner approval, which would open up a whole new set of problems.  Either way, I see no evidence beyond wishful thinking that the payroll will be anywhere near recent levels, at least in the short term. 

I hope I'm wrong because I want them to win.

The Correa and Donaldson contracts were outside of the norm as far as years/dollars go, but the payroll didn't really budge much, they were consistently in the 16-20 range every year. It's not like the Pohlads actually pushed in and decided to go for it. 

Concur about the limited partners. It's just a quick cash infusion in conjunction with slashing payroll which should allow the billionaire overlords the ability to pay down the debt + interest while still hitting that oh so important profit number. The only real hope is that once they've managed to dig out of whatever the debt is, they sell the ****ing team and disappear. 

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