For Good or Bad, On Field and Off, Twins Franchise Looks Ready to Lean Back Into the 'Twins Way'

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

This is actually extremely false!  The Cubs outhomered the Brewers in Game 1 (Brewers won) and neither team homered in Game 3. 

I know people love the simple answers - it's all about homers! - but those pesky facts keep getting in the way...

Ooops. Got one game wrong. The data is very clear, analysis has shown it for several years, you need to hit home runs in the post season. You can find the studies online. 

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Power wins in the playoffs.  If you think otherwise, show your work.

Woof already did the work for me.

"In fact, of the 10 highest HR hitting teams in MLB history, only 1 (2019 Astros) even made the World Series, and none won a Series. It's about more than power. Just ask the Bomba Squad."

[Eris]

13 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I fear that the team is engaging in some nostalgic fantasy.  The team wasn’t any better back then than they are now, and in many ways worse.

The 2007 Twins had 5 players with more than 3 fWAR. The 2025 Twins had only Buxton with more than 3 fWAR. Although Bader would have reached that level had he not been traded. 
 

I view the Twins Way as a focus on playing fundamentally sound baseball. Play good defense, smart base running, good situational hitting and awareness, and throwing to the correct base. What I am struggling to understand is why that is not the expectation now for every player who puts on a uniform. 

[bean5302]

Wallner was better with runners on base than bases empty.

.195/.291/.471 OPS .761 wRC+ 109 bases empty
.217/.348/.452 OPS .800 wRC+ 124 runners on
.177/.329/.323 OPS .652 wRC+ 89 RISP

when it came to RISP, Wallner got junk to hit because pitchers were afraid of him and pretty much nobody else in the Twins' lineup. Wallner walked 17.7% of the time with just a 24.1% K rate

Wallner had a whopping 79 PA with RISP last year. Just 35 PA with high leverage.

The negative narratives TD posters spin up about him just never hold up to scrutiny.

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Here's what I'd like to know. 

Why did Falvey and Lavine think that money wouldn't be a concern? They made a lot of roster decisions that suggest they thought money wouldn't be a concern. 

There is absolutely nothing in the history of Minnesota Twins budgets that would lead a new front office... just coming into a job... to believe that money wouldn't be a concern in Minnesota. 

They staffed the roster like they could go to 160 million, 170... 180? Just keep increasing as needed. 

They are not idiots... Why did they have that impression? 

I understand course correction. What I don't understand is the impression in the first place.

Minnesota has never been a "mid-market" team. We all know this. They had to know this.

What made them think they could free agent sign their way to glory?

It is quite possible they thought a winning team would bring in fans. When the fans didn’t come out, they had to do something different 

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You don't think that would be one of the worst offensive outfields in the Majors (and not young)? And with the question marks in the infield (lewis, Lee, and Luke) seems like a recipe for disaster, IMO both are depth players not starters. 

IMO one of the Twins top prospects has to be on the opening day roster, Jenkins, Culpepper or Erod (or maybe GG), there is no reason Martin and Roden need to be given a chance.

Why would either be a depth piece? Neither really has enough AB to say success or failure 

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Why would either be a depth piece? Neither really has enough AB to say success or failure 

I am not sure what you are asking, the are depth for injury or bad play.

Between the Minors and Majors Martin has 1834 at bats and Roden 1472. What more do you want to see, you want to see them taking at bats away from players that might be much better players? He is an idea lets run them out there for the next 5 years like they did with a similar aged Larnach and get 3.2 WAR and say next year is the year.  (Similar to the Pirates who roster is usually full of mid 20 aged players that just never seem to figure it out. 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

It is quite possible they thought a winning team would bring in fans. When the fans didn’t come out, they had to do something different 

The Twins have eclipsed 3 million fans three times. 1988 following the World Series win.

And the 2010 and 2011 seasons which were the first two years of Target Field which may have turned those turnstiles. 2010 and 2011 were also the last two years of the brief Bill Smith regime.

I mention Bill Smith because Bill spent money in comparison to Ryan. 2010 and 2011 (2012) were also the only years of payroll outlier in Twins History. The Twins ranked 9th and 10th in opening day payroll in 2010 and 2011 respectively. 11th in 2012 before plunging to 21st in 2013. Was that Bill Smith or the opening of Target Field. 

Otherwise... between 18th and 22nd ranked is what the Twins are and have basically always been until we broke that ceiling in 2021 and payroll rose to 153 million in 2023 until they hit that wall. 

 

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am not sure what you are asking, the are depth for injury or bad play.

Between the Minors and Majors Martin has 1834 at bats and Roden 1472. What more do you want to see, you want to see them taking at bats away from players that might be much better players? He is an idea lets run them out there for the next 5 years like they did with a similar aged Larnach and get 3.2 WAR and say next year is the year.  (Similar to the Pirates who roster is usually full of mid 20 aged players that just never seem to figure it out. 

Predetermination 

I'm not a fan of predetermination. 

If what you are saying is true. They are not "depth for injury or bad play" either.

They are just bad play. 

 

 

[old nurse]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am not sure what you are asking, the are depth for injury or bad play.

Between the Minors and Majors Martin has 1834 at bats and Roden 1472. What more do you want to see, you want to see them taking at bats away from players that might be much better players? He is an idea lets run them out there for the next 5 years like they did with a similar aged Larnach and get 3.2 WAR and say next year is the year.  (Similar to the Pirates who roster is usually full of mid 20 aged players that just never seem to figure it out. 

So you are saying a player that has an OPS in the major league this year that is above average is a depth piece. You are saying that a player with a WRC+ of 113 this year is a depth piece. Roden has a whopping 153 plate appearance in the major leagues and you want to pass that off as a large enough sample size to judge someone who has a .917 OPS in the minor leagues as a bad player That is your prerogative but it does lead me to question if you bother to look anything up 

[old nurse]

32 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins have eclipsed 3 million fans three times. 1988 following the World Series win.

And the 2010 and 2011 seasons which were the first two years of Target Field which may have turned those turnstiles. 2010 and 2011 were also the last two years of the brief Bill Smith regime.

I mention Bill Smith because Bill spent money in comparison to Ryan. 2010 and 2011 (2012) were also the only years of payroll outlier in Twins History. The Twins ranked 9th and 10th in opening day payroll in 2010 and 2011 respectively. 11th in 2012 before plunging to 21st in 2013. Was that Bill Smith or the opening of Target Field. 

Otherwise... between 18th and 22nd ranked is what the Twins are and have basically always been until we broke that ceiling in 2021 and payroll rose to 153 million in 2023 until they hit that wall. 

 

Post pandemic the Padres increased their fan total by a million  they were traditionally a middle of the league attendance team. I didn’t say the Twins used logic They took a gamble and lost  If you would like to compare it to poker, they drew 3 cards to a low pair hoping for a full house 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

p

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Predetermination 

I'm not a fan of predetermination. 

If what you are saying is true. They are not "depth for injury or bad play" either.

They are just bad play. 

 

 

Predetermination, isn't that what baseball is all about? Isn't that why the defense plays were they do? why pitches are called, steals, hit and run, and just about every aspect of baseball? Yet, we are to ignore the one that has been proven over and over since the beginning of baseball? Age of a player and when they debut? 

Obviously there are guys that debuted at 25 or older that turned into very good baseball players or even better and obviously there are guys that debuted in their early 20's that flamed out, or guys that were able to established themselves after being brought up in their mid 20's and failing for a bit. But those are the exceptions to the rules, just like bringing in a left handed pitcher to face a left handed batter, or pinch hitting a left handed hitter against a left handed pitcher.  But you want to ignore the stats/projections/analytics in this case and take a shot at the low percentage play?

And if the Twins weren't horsesh!t the last few years and already had 4 or 5 established major league players in the lineup, I would agree with you, that a guy like Martin or Roden might probably is the smart/right move but that isn't the world the Twins are living, they are still basically trying to fill 5 or 6 spots with good players, so what why not go with the young guy? (obviously that only works when you are a possible young guy, and currently the Twins do)

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

So you are saying a player that has an OPS in the major league this year that is above average is a depth piece. You are saying that a player with a WRC+ of 113 this year is a depth piece. Roden has a whopping 153 plate appearance in the major leagues and you want to pass that off as a large enough sample size to judge someone who has a .917 OPS in the minor leagues as a bad player That is your prerogative but it does lead me to question if you bother to look anything up 

What do you want me to look up? Martin's age he will be 27 March 23, His slash line this year was .282/.374/.365/.740 with an OPS+ of 106. Want his career? .265/.341/.357/.698

How about his career minor league slash line. .266/.399/.365/.764, 

what about any of those numbers screams MLB starter? Must be he defense and base running (wait aren't those the things everyone complained about?)

Roden turns 26 December 22 and has and like you said has whooping 153 plate appearances in the MLB. 

I am not saying either of these guys are bad players, what I am saying is a team like the Twins shouldn't be playing guys like this over guys that have an actual shot at being better than average type player. 

I will add AAA numbers for guys on the wrong side of 25 don't mean a darn thing, ask Gasper, Keirsey,  Prato, Stevenson, Williams, and tons and tons of other players. 

 

[old nurse]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What do you want me to look up? Martin's age he will be 27 March 23, He slash line this year was .282/.374/.365/.740 with an OPS+ of 106. Want his career? .265/.341/.357/.698

How about his career minor league slash line. .266/.399/.365/.764, 

what about any of those numbers screams MLB starter? Must be he defense and base running (wait aren't those the things everyone complained about?

Roden turns 26 December 22 and has and like you said has whooping 153 plate appearances in the MLB. 

I am not saying either of these guys are bad players, what I am saying is a team like the Twins shouldn't be playing guys like this over guys that have an actual shot at being better than average type player. 

I will add AAA numbers for guys on the wrong side of 25 don't mean a darn thing, ask Gasper, Keirsey,  Prato, Stevenson, Williams, and tons and tons of other players. 

 

So you are saying you son’s know what a major league starter hits, 

[Trov]

22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

One of the biggest differences between the Brewers and Twins?

Sal Frelick 25, established MLB player (26 in April)

Turang 25, established MLB player (26 in November)

Contreras 27, established MLB player (28 in November)

Chourio 21, established MLB player (22 in March)

Yelich, and Hoskins, both established even though Hoskins hasn't been good (but wasn't terrible when healthy this year) and Yelich when healthy plays at or close to All Star level. 

And then you have the 3 guys that are like most of the Twins roster. Older type prospects/rookies, that if do well you keep playing (like Julien and Miranda of the past) if not move on to the next guy up (Perkins, Monasterio, Mitchell, and others) but you are only doing it for 1/3 of your starters, not 2/3. 

Durbin, 25,

Collins 27,  

Ortiz 27

Now the Twins

Buxton, Jeffers as established and the rest of the team are guys mostly made up of mid 20's (age) prospects that haven't established themselves and the only players to move onto to are Bargin basement FA's, or even older prospects (Gasper, Keirsey types)

Until the Twins actually starting getting players established prior to their prime years, we will likely continue to see the same outcome that we have been seeing, which isn't good. I mean 26 and 27 year old non-established players (Martin and Roden) are actually being talked about as starters, along with an infield of Lewis (26), Lee (25), Keashall (23, a good thing), and? non-established players.  That doesn't install confidence in anybody except those Fans that think every Twins player is the exception to the rules. 

 

 

 

I do not disagree with what you are saying, but my point was about Twins went away from the "Twins Way", in part it was good, but they went way the other way to the full nothing but power hitters, who cares about strike outs we want extra base hits.  Brewers had a great offense this year, that did not do that, they were take walks, do not strike out, put ball in play, make other team make a play, and if you need to steal bases, take extra bases on hits and string a few singles together that will work too. I was not comparing the players and their development, I was comparing philosophy of offense the two have, and how the 2000 Twins had a similar plan to the Brewers this year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, Trov said:

I do not disagree with what you are saying, but my point was about Twins went away from the "Twins Way", in part it was good, but they went way the other way to the full nothing but power hitters, who cares about strike outs we want extra base hits.  Brewers had a great offense this year, that did not do that, they were take walks, do not strike out, put ball in play, make other team make a play, and if you need to steal bases, take extra bases on hits and string a few singles together that will work too. I was not comparing the players and their development, I was comparing philosophy of offense the two have, and how the 2000 Twins had a similar plan to the Brewers this year. 

Sorry, I wasn't disagreeing with you on philosophy, I was just pointing out the Brewers have better players than the Twins. 

[TwinsDr2021]

42 minutes ago, old nurse said:

So you are saying you son’s know what a major league starter hits, 

?

[The Great Hambino]

11 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Woof already did the work for me.

"In fact, of the 10 highest HR hitting teams in MLB history, only 1 (2019 Astros) even made the World Series, and none won a Series. It's about more than power. Just ask the Bomba Squad."

"Power wins in the playoffs" means out-homering your opponent wins in the playoffs, which also factors in your pitching staff's ability to prevent homers.  The Bomba Squad would agree, since they were bounced by a team that out-homered them in their series and hit a whopping one fewer homer than them in the regular season.  They weren't gonna match the Yankees' scoring output of 10, 8, and 5 runs with sac bunts and hit-and-runs

Sorry, but I don't think a list of regular season homers - four of which were in the same season, which would make it kinda difficult for them all to go to the World Series - without consideration of homers allowed is proof that power doesn't win in the postseason 

Speaking of 2019, that World Series was won by the Nationals, which didn't hit as many regular season homers.  But they won with power in the playoffs.   They beat those Astros in part because they matched them in homers.  In fact, all seven games in that series were won by the team that hit more homers.  Every single one.  You're gonna look at that and tell me power doesn't win in the postseason?  If you do, we're just gonna have to disagree here.

After last night's games, teams that out-homer their opponent are now 21-4 this postseason.  That's an .840 winning percentage - a 136 win pace.  I don't think that's a coincidence.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Predetermination, isn't that what baseball is all about? Isn't that why the defense plays were they do? why pitches are called, steals, hit and run, and just about every aspect of baseball? Yet, we are to ignore the one that has been proven over and over since the beginning of baseball? Age of a player and when they debut? 

Obviously there are guys that debuted at 25 or older that turned into very good baseball players or even better and obviously there are guys that debuted in their early 20's that flamed out, or guys that were able to established themselves after being brought up in their mid 20's and failing for a bit. But those are the exceptions to the rules, just like bringing in a left handed pitcher to face a left handed batter, or pinch hitting a left handed hitter against a left handed pitcher.  But you want to ignore the stats/projections/analytics in this case and take a shot at the low percentage play?

And if the Twins weren't horsesh!t the last few years and already had 4 or 5 established major league players in the lineup, I would agree with you, that a guy like Martin or Roden might probably is the smart/right move but that isn't the world the Twins are living, they are still basically trying to fill 5 or 6 spots with good players, so what why not go with the young guy? (obviously that only works when you are a possible young guy, and currently the Twins do)

You can never get predetermination out of the game of baseball. These guys in front offices have to decide who to place on 40 and 26 man roster because those rosters have limitations and they have to attempt to predetermine and rank the options. All 30 teams still can't get the .650 OPS out of the lineup with all that predetermination. 

In your 2nd paragraph... You say those are the "exceptions to the rules". Rarities... therefore it happens but not that often is how I took that statement.

I have to ask you a question(s).

Wouldn't that attitude (I believe it exists) toward late age debuts contribute to that rarity. If Roden and Martin are now too old therefore let's move on... Wouldn't that play a major factor in the rarity that you speak of? Wouldn't that make it X amount times harder for a Nathan Lukes or Ernie Clement to be one of those rarities? If it's X amount times harder to even get consideration... wouldn't that be a factor in the rarity of that rarity?      

Also for consideration... Players that debut in the early 20's are typically pretty special players. Just logic will tell us that. For a team to rush a Walter Jenkins or Jackson Chourio up to the majors to start at a young age, to start his clock early so they reach free agency at age 26, to leapfrog the Martins and Rodens, wouldn't that player have to be pretty special?

I'll contend that a player that special is the real rarity. Not many of them exist. That player is going to get every chance to prove he is what the team predetermined he will be. Therefore making his ultimate failure... a rarity... an exception to the rule which was already a rarity based on the specialness that put him in that situation in the first place. X amount times harder to fail because that player will be allowed to work through low performance and talented enough to be given the opportunity at a young age.  

Royce Lewis is going to get every opportunity to not fail. Not saying he shouldn't just trying to point out what could logically be considered major contributing factors to the rarity or exceptions to the rules that you speak of. 

However, after you deal with the superstars like Jenkins and Chourio. You still got 25 other roster spots to staff and I don't think asking for competition between Lukes and whoever else was predetermined for the 26 man roster is a lot to ask for. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Post pandemic the Padres increased their fan total by a million  they were traditionally a middle of the league attendance team. I didn’t say the Twins used logic They took a gamble and lost  If you would like to compare it to poker, they drew 3 cards to a low pair hoping for a full house 

 

I like comparing everything to poker.

It's forecast for 59 Degrees today Mid October in Northeast North Dakota.

In other words... A pair of aces and I'll discard 3. 

My wife picked up KFC for supper last night. It was like holding a J 9 7 3 and 2.  

[TwinsDr2021]

28 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I have to ask you a question.

Wouldn't that attitude (I believe it exists) toward late age debuts contribute to that rarity. If Roden and Martin are now too old therefore let's move on... Wouldn't that play a major factor in the rarity that you speak of? Wouldn't that make it X amount times harder for a Nathan Lukes or Ernie Clement to be one of those rarities? If it's X amount times harder to even get consideration... wouldn't that be a factor in that rarity?      

 

If you have read my posts, I didn't say Martin and Roden should be banned from baseball and sent to sell used cars on the lot down the street. I also never said they couldn't be good MLB players or important to very important pieces of a team. I am saying from the position the Twins have put themselves in, there is no need to have both of these guys starting for the Twins when you have players like Erod (ranked in the top 100 prospects for the last three years and top 50 the last two) or Jenkins (top 10 prospect for the last two years) waiting in the wings. 

Also I have said both Martin and Roden should be depth pieces, be it in the minors, bench players, or guys that play 2-4 times a week. 

People talk about the Brewers, the Brewers can have a guy like Issac Collins  or Durbin come up at a later age and be a big part of the team, because they have so many well established players at other positions. (The Twins do not), and as long as Collins/Durbin play well they will keep playing but if they struggle they can plug the next prospect in and see how he/they do) 

The Twins have been running players like Collins/Durbin out for the last few years and gotten good play at times from them, but not enough and they have to keep running them out there because there is no next prospect. If the Twins had more established players, they could have filled holes with the likes of Hellman, Eeles, Fedko, Schobel, McCusker, guys who aren't likely to end up as starters but maybe could get on a heater for a month, months, or heck even a year. 

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If you have read my posts, I didn't say Martin and Roden should be banned from baseball and sent to sell used cars on the lot down the street. I also never said they couldn't be good MLB players or important to very important pieces of a team. I am saying from the position the Twins have put themselves in, there is no need to have both of these guys starting for the Twins when you have players like Erod (ranked in the top 100 prospects for the last three years and top 50 the last two) or Jenkins (top 10 prospect for the last two years) waiting in the wings. 

Also I have said both Martin and Roden should be depth pieces, be it in the minors, bench players, or guys that play 2-4 times a week. 

People talk about the Brewers, the Brewers can have a guy like Issac Collins  or Durbin come up at a later age and be a big part of the team, because they have so many well established players at other positions. (The Twins do not), and as long as Collins/Durbin play well they will keep playing but if they struggle they can plug the next prospect in and see how he/they do) 

The Twins have been running players like Collins/Durbin out for the last few years and gotten good play at times from them, but not enough and they have to keep running them out there because there is no next prospect. If the Twins had more established players, they could have filled holes with the likes of Hellman, Eeles, Fedko, Schobel, McCusker, guys who aren't likely to end up as starters but maybe could get on a heater for a month, months, or heck even a year. 

 

I've read your posts. You have earned the respect to take you seriously. 

I took your statement as the "worst offensive outfields in the majors" literally.

"Anything but replacement players"... I took as predetermination. 

I'm here to say that I'm not a fan of predetermination due to the frequent errors of players gifted with the benefit of the doubt that fail.

I'm here to say that if we need to locate 5 or 6 guys like you said... and I agree that we need to find at least 5 or 6 guys... actually more.

Your odds of finding 5 or 6 guys is going to improve if you don't limit your serious auditions to exactly 5 or 6 guys. 

I'll add that if you are right about Martin and Roden and you might be. I'm not here to defend or tear down either player. If you are right and you got this thing nailed. Just move on now don't waste a roster spot on either player. Because having sub par players on your bench just leads to shaking off the rust and getting into the lineup when the injuries occur. How they will perform has already been predetermined and apparently... it's not going to be good.        

 

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, old nurse said:

  If you would like to compare it to poker, they drew 3 cards to a low pair hoping for a full house 

I'm curious what you suggest a poker player (playing stud) do with a low pair, if not draw 3 cards?

 

 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm curious what you suggest a poker player (playing stud) do with a low pair, if not draw 3 cards?

 

 

Thanks for the reminder that with Air Force vets everything had to be in fine detail so they didn’t miss the point 

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

?

You can question a comment. Now try knowing understanding developing people’s talent. It is neither linear nor does it have to be age related.. a lot of good players develop  late 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Thanks for the reminder that with Air Force vets everything had to be in fine detail so they didn’t miss the point 

You got me. I missed the point. Please explain it. Thanks 

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 10/17/2025 at 3:11 AM, Woof Bronzer said:

Good post, but I think it's more complicated.  I've never found the "team who outhomers the other wins" argument to be meaningful, sort of like a football fan saying the team who scores more touchdowns than the other team usually wins.  (Duh.) The argument is one step short of basically saying whichever team scores more tends to win.  This isn't particularly meaningful data to me.  It's also interesting that suddenly small sample sizes like one half of a playoff season are somehow meaningful and valid here, which counter to sabermetric conventional wisdom.  

I'm also skeptical that home runs were the one and only reason each game was won.  The Brewers also won all the home games vs the Cubs, and lost the away games.  Was that a factor?  Do pitchers play any role? The Cubs hit more homers than the Brewers this year and it didn't seem to help them in the playoffs.

In fact, of the 10 highest HR hitting teams in MLB history, only 1 (2019 Astros) even made the World Series, and none won a Series.  It's about more than power.  Just ask the Bomba Squad.  

I'd say it's more about having a well rounded team that can win games in multiple ways.  One of the biggest reasons the piranha Twins never won anything is because outside of Santana they had a bunch of mediocre starters.  And the Bomba Squad started Randy Dobnak in a Game 2 at Yankee Stadium for goodness sake.  

This. The difference now is that the 2026 team has the chance to have at least 2 guys who should start a playoff game, 3 if Ober gets his mojo back. That’s why we have an opportunity that we shouldn’t waste. The Dodgers are the current juggernaut because they have the best starting pitching, not because they out homer everybody. The Dodger bullpen is not good. Playoff games are primarily won by quality starting pitching. The Dodgers have it, The Reds, Padres, and Brewers do not. Phillies starters are good but not as good. Our rotation isn’t as deep but the top 2 are pretty damn good. That creates we a competitive opportunity that we shouldn’t waste. We need to find ways to score with what we have and what we may have is singles and speed. 

[old nurse]

23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You got me. I missed the point. Please explain it. Thanks 

It can’t be done in a simple sentence and you did not follow multiple sentences 

[Woof Bronzer]

On 10/17/2025 at 9:06 AM, The Great Hambino said:

"Power wins in the playoffs" means out-homering your opponent wins in the playoffs, which also factors in your pitching staff's ability to prevent homers.  The Bomba Squad would agree, since they were bounced by a team that out-homered them in their series and hit a whopping one fewer homer than them in the regular season.  They weren't gonna match the Yankees' scoring output of 10, 8, and 5 runs with sac bunts and hit-and-runs

Sorry, but I don't think a list of regular season homers - four of which were in the same season, which would make it kinda difficult for them all to go to the World Series - without consideration of homers allowed is proof that power doesn't win in the postseason 

Speaking of 2019, that World Series was won by the Nationals, which didn't hit as many regular season homers.  But they won with power in the playoffs.   They beat those Astros in part because they matched them in homers.  In fact, all seven games in that series were won by the team that hit more homers.  Every single one.  You're gonna look at that and tell me power doesn't win in the postseason?  If you do, we're just gonna have to disagree here.

After last night's games, teams that out-homer their opponent are now 21-4 this postseason.  That's an .840 winning percentage - a 136 win pace.  I don't think that's a coincidence.

Outhomering the other team definitely gives you a better chance to win - no dispute there.  What I'm saying is that this is not special to the playoffs - this is true for every baseball game that is ever played.  And this does not mean that teams should construct their teams to solely hit home runs, because the data is very clear that teams who are extreme HR-focused teams do not correlate to playoff success.  You touch on this in your post - a non HR hitting team can simply get hot and turn into the 27 Yankees for a couple weeks.  

And I think there are many, many things that go into winning a baseball game, things that are magnified in the playoffs, and it's a foolish to just to tally up the homers and reduce it to that.  Correlation does not equal causation. I bet the data shows that says teams who outhit the other team, or whose starter goes more than 7 innings, also have a higher likelihood of winning.  

So yes. homers help you win in the playoffs, like any other game.  I just don't think there's anything meaningful to be gleaned from that in terms of roster construction, other than that if you want to seriously contend for a Series you should build a well rounded team who can win games by outslugging teams in addition to outhitting, outpitching, out-defending, etc.  

[Woof Bronzer]

On 10/16/2025 at 9:17 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Ooops. Got one game wrong. The data is very clear, analysis has shown it for several years, you need to hit home runs in the post season. You can find the studies online. 

You got 2 of the 5 games, or 40%, wrong. Pretty significant!  I find it interesting that you shared your statistic without actually looking it up.  Seems like you're operating on assumptions because you want them to be true, rather than whether they are actually true. 

Please share these studies.  I tried and cannot find a single study that shows that the one and only metric for determining playoff success is the quantity of home runs and that things like pitching, home field advantage, defense, timely hitting, etc have no impact in winning playoff games.  The fact that more homers makes you more likely to win is true in every baseball game ever and is not special to the playoffs. And again, I've shown the data that the best regular season HR hitting teams do not win in the playoffs.   Building a team solely focused on power does not translate to success, as Falvey era Twins fans know full well.

Each playoff year is a small sample size so meaningful trend data cannot be gleaned from it - this is the "playoffs are a crapshoot" theory.  Again it's interesting when saber guys just totally ignore SSS when it suits their argument.  Hitting home runs helps you win; building teams that can hit HRs and do nothing else well does not.