old nurse Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 He is working his way back from Tommy John. It hasn’t gone well, but still, he was a decent arm. Should the Twins take a flyer? DocBauer and glunn 2
jaimedude Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 1 hour ago, old nurse said: He is working his way back from Tommy John. It hasn’t gone well, but still, he was a decent arm. Should the Twins take a flyer? Why not. bunsen82, Heistyman, Vanimal46 and 1 other 4
Heistyman Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 Sounds like he still has 2 minor league options available so he could work it out in the minors if needed. glunn and Vanimal46 2
old nurse Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Author Posted September 24, 2025 11 minutes ago, Heistyman said: Sounds like he still has 2 minor league options available so he could work it out in the minors if needed. All the more reason to take a flyer. glunn and Vanimal46 2
Vanimal46 Old-Timey Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 2 option years remaining. He made $2 million this year and will likely sign for a similar number for 2026. Controllable through 2027. We have nothing to lose claiming him in case if his arm isn't broken beyond repair. Without knowing his medical records I say do it. bunsen82 and glunn 2
Twins_Fan_in_NJ Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 Yeah, no brainer for the Twins to take a flier. If they are able to catch lightening in a bottle, maybe they can flip at next year's trade deadline - presuming they're not in contention at the time.
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 A claim and they will be taking him to arbitration. He is arb 2. Do salaries ever go down in arbitration when injury is involved? I think it goes up a little from his 2.2 million this year. Are they better spending those dollars on a reliever? I would do it and pay for some of it by not tendering Topa. Pay for the upside. I guess that doesn’t work if they were already planning to cut Topa loose though.
DJL44 Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said: A claim and they will be taking him to arbitration. He is arb 2. Do salaries ever go down in arbitration when injury is involved? I think it goes up a little from his 2.2 million this year. Are they better spending those dollars on a reliever? I would do it and pay for some of it by not tendering Topa. Pay for the upside. I guess that doesn’t work if they were already planning to cut Topa loose though. They have a projected payroll less than $100M they don't need to cut anyone to add a $3M contract. jorgenswest 1
bunsen82 Verified Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 His biggest issue right now is lack of velocity. Similar to Ober and previously SWR. Low 90's fastballs just don't cut it at the mlb level. Can the Twins help him regain velocity. That is one thing the Twins have done well. Manoah is also someone the Twins have previously had interest in. It would be a 2 million dollar gamble though for his 2026 salary. Is that something the Twins are willing spend? I don't know. 50/50 is my guess.
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted September 24, 2025 Posted September 24, 2025 I'd claim him for sure, and move him to the BP next year. 100x out of 100.
DocBauer Old-Timey Member Posted September 25, 2025 Posted September 25, 2025 28yo in 2026 coming off surgery and 1 good season, one great season, and then a poor season. You bet. You're 28yo coming off surgery and a poor/mediocre season before that. Is it time for you to think about a move to the pen to further your career? You have risk attached to you. How about 1 year at $3.5M with a team option for $5M? No? OK. God bless and move on.
Dave Borton Verified Member Posted September 25, 2025 Posted September 25, 2025 On 9/24/2025 at 9:27 AM, bunsen82 said: His biggest issue right now is lack of velocity. Similar to Ober and previously SWR. Low 90's fastballs just don't cut it at the mlb level. 4-seam FB speed for 2026 averages 93.7 mph. I was surprised when Monday quoted it on a Dodgers broadcast. I thought it was higher.
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted September 25, 2025 Posted September 25, 2025 I think he is a waiver claim so picking him up would mean tendering him for arbitration. As a waiver claim the Twins probably have a better shot at getting him as opposed to a free agent who has cleared waivers. His 4 seam fastball velocity in AAA was 91.0 when he returned this year. It was 93.7 and 93.9 on his successful seasons. His best pitch was his sinker. It was on both sides of 93 his successful seasons. It was 91.2 in AAA this year. His walk rate in the minors this year was 12.8%. It was 8.7% and 6.5% in his successful seasons. I would sign him and give him a shot as a reliever. My fear is the Twins won’t cut him loose if his control and velocity does not return.
bunsen82 Verified Member Posted September 25, 2025 Posted September 25, 2025 We should know today if anyone made a claim on him.
Vanimal46 Old-Timey Member Posted September 27, 2025 Posted September 27, 2025 Braves claimed him, meaning the Twins passed on him because? Money?
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted September 27, 2025 Posted September 27, 2025 I would have signed him but I am a guy sitting in his couch looking at his 2021-22 stats. The reality is his first two seasons were aided by a low BABIP. When it normalized in 2023 he wasn’t effective. He also refused to report to a minor league assignment in 2023. Is that a sign that he resists doing the hard work required for any major leaguer? It certainly requires daily hard work and persistence to fight back from Tommy John. The Jays let him go in spite of options and a salary they could easily manage. Why not keep him and start him in AAA to begin next year? Was it simply a need for a spot on the 40? Maybe. Santander returned from the 60. They had other options like France who was put in the IL. Could he have been put on the 60 with his oblique injury? They have two older pitchers in AAA they could have DFA’d instead for a spot. Instead they preferred the 29 year old Easton Lucas and his career 8.08 ERA and 31 year old Dillon Tate instead. I don’t think the Jays let him go because of money. I think they thought they had other players more worthy of a 40 man roster spot including Lucas and Tate. Is it possible the teams in front of the Braves made the same assessment?
ashbury Verified Member Posted September 27, 2025 Posted September 27, 2025 41 minutes ago, jorgenswest said: I don’t think the Jays let him go because of money. I think they thought they had other players more worthy of a 40 man roster spot including Lucas and Tate. Is it possible the teams in front of the Braves made the same assessment? Wikipedia refreshed my memory about the guy. It looks like a series of injuries and unclear diagnoses led to clashes with the front office. That may have factored in, or served as a tie-breaker, to the Jays' decision. It could be a factor in the decisions by other teams in the waiver queue. jorgenswest 1
HarmonK03 Verified Member Posted September 27, 2025 Posted September 27, 2025 Here's an idea, let's not keep taking flyers on injured or players with issues. Let's try and bring some proven players in, a novel concept but it would be nice to try once. Trying once here and there is one thing, but this is how Falvey operates.
bunsen82 Verified Member Posted September 29, 2025 Posted September 29, 2025 On 9/27/2025 at 11:59 AM, Vanimal46 said: Braves claimed him, meaning the Twins passed on him because? Money? As I said earlier he is a significant project at this point. He has had significant injury and poor results and a lack of effort (also gaining too much weight) for several years. He had a hit a higher level but he is our version of Julien. Yes there may still be something there but I don't see too many people clamoring to keep or pay Julien a lot of money. Doesn't appear to be a big deal either way. The issue may also be trying to keep him on the 40 man. Yes we have lots of cuts available, we will have lots of players that need to be added. Initial before the trade deadline I didn't think we would have an issue, after the trade deadline it will be difficult along with filling out the roster.
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