Could Someone—Anyone At All—Give Twins Fans Any Reason To Believe? Please?

[T.O.]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, that's the only reason. And obviously a big one, but here are the top 16 paid managers in the league (cropped because I'm sure nobody thinks the twins are paying a manager top 6 money)

So despite his tenure, he can't even crack the top 16. Even the Twins will pay some nobody free agent reliever 1M this off season, eating Baldelli's pay would be a very cheap PR stunt.

And bonus to the Pohlads, they can probably lock in some unqualified NEW manager for 750K to 800K per year to run a dysfunctional team nobody else will want to run. 

For some reason I thought he made a lot more but Google AI says...

Rocco Baldelli's salary for 2025 is expected to be $1 million, as per his contract that includes a 2025 season with a 2026 club option.

That gives me hope but it would still be admitting a mistake for Falvey, but on the other hand it could deflect some criticism. Maybe?  

[T.O.]

Maybe this is what we need. They should know, it's the pre Twins.

[Rhyno006]

I am morbidly curious what other GM's (owners even) think of this organization, and even what bloggers from other teams think of them as well.

Is there a John Bonnes, et al. type person or group that would be willing to give an outside view? Not that many outsiders spend that much time thinking about the Twins, but... someone willing to give somewhat of an objective view on the team as whole. Just throwing stuff at the wall here, trying to afford more productivity to my negative thoughts surrounding the team lol.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Name one pitching prospect that has been anywhere near as good as Ober and Ryan were when called up, maybe SWR? 

Ober 21 starts 4.19 ERA

Ryan 5 starts 4.04, then 27 starts for 3.55 ERA

Festa 25 games - 5.12 ERA

Zebby - 20 games 5.88

Abel - 7 starts 6.43 ERA

Bradley - first 32 games 5.59, 70 games 4.81

SWR has been better than Festa, Zebby, Abel and Bradley

Varland better than the guys after Ryan and he ended up in the pen

Winder 15 games 4.70 ERA ended up in the pen

Jax 18 games - 6.37 ERA - Ended up in the pen

Sands 11 games - 5.87 ERA - ended up in the pen

But you and others want us  ignore what we have seen with our own eyes for the last X amount of years, and believe in a low probability reality? 

I hope all of those guys ended up being all stars, but I also live in the real world that says that is very unlikely to happen.

 

 

 

 

Bailey Ober was 25 when he came up to MLB.  Joe Ryan was 25  

Abel is 23 and Bradley is 24.  Both were rated much higher than either Ryan or Ober.  Yes in a SSS for Abel he has underperformed.  Bradley has performed like a mid rotation arm in the MLB for 2 years.  Now the Twins think they can improve his stuff with the splitter.  At the very least give them the offseason.   Other than SWR both of these pitchers pitched in the MLB at a younger age.   Their stuff is also considered better than most of the people you are discussing as well.  

In either case the proof will be in the pudding.   I am optimistic you and others can be negative.  I don't think it helps emotionally just being a fan (who wants to be miserable as a fan) - or it appears that whether intentional or not it almost seems like there are those who want to ignore the great games Abel had in AAA and state how poorly he did in 1 MLB start, almost rooting against him because you are upset with the front office and Ownership.   So yes I can be realistic some of these will fail.  Nicks article is implying all of them will fail based on a few MLB games.  It cuts both ways.  Is Philly throwing Duran under the bus because 1 blown save?  Is Tampa Bay fans upset because Jax has struggled for multiple outings?  Is Toronto upset because Varland has a 5 ERA since he was traded?  They may be disappointed but its also an extremely small sample size.  I am willing to bet both Abel and Bradley have better starts than their last 2 starts. 

So all in all I see no point in continue to bemoan what occurred.  We can't change ownership,  and they are the ones that would change the front office.  So we can either deal with the situation as it is.  Walk away either for a short period or a longer period from our fandom - or continue to piss and moan.   I would rather cheer for the players. Go Twins.    

[T.O.]

6 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

"Stop with all the negativity!  All you guys do is complain about things you have no control over!  Also, Dan Gladden must be fired, I hate him so much I made it my username so I'd never forget how bad he is and how much he should be fired!  But like I was saying, negativity sucks!"

Baseball is a child's game. We get to be children in this forum and let it all out. However when a bunch of children are gathered there is always an adult (or someone who sees themself as the adult), to scold them, tell them they are wrong.. We be kids just the same. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I want to believe you're right, but I'm afraid I don't share your optimism.

They have someone in-house in Tingler that a) has managerial experience and b) buys into Falvey's overall philosophy.  The trade deadline would've been a perfect time to dump Baldelli and take Tingler for a test drive for the rest of the year if they had plans to move on from him.

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic.  I don't think the fact they picked up his option is the impediment to change that others do, but I just don't think that Falvey thinks the manager is the problem.

This is where I fall as well.

Also....I don't care if Baldelli makes $1 or 10 million.....firing him is burning money.  And we all know how the people cutting checks feel about squeezing the blood out of every last dime.

[Dman]

I'm coming to this party pretty late.  For me if the Twins are losing that's great as that just means a higher draft pick.  If they are winning that's great as that means the team is improving. If we have bad players now we have younger one's coming up.  There's always a positive for every negative.

Every year is different.  I thought last years (2024) Blue Jays were gonna be even worse this year and they lead the beastly east right now.  Young players figure things out.  Teams get a little better luck to start the year and confidence stays high can make a lot of difference.

I guess I love baseball and my favorite team too much to completely give up on them. I think we just need to ride this out until things turn our way.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

To be fair Keaschall has a 1.4 WAR so far.  (I am even accounting for some regression LOL).  As to Lee - yes I am much more positive than most and I have been watching him closely every game since the deadline.  Don't ask me why but he seems to play better when he is at 3rd or SS (thats where he played most of his minor league games).  He also has a much better approach at the plate than he did in July and the first week of August.  Notable improvement and the numbers show it.  He was -.7 WAR prior to the trade.  This is massive positive improvement.  But go ahead and say its small sample size and I am being overly optimistic.  Maybe I am.   I would much rather be positive than negative.   

With a near 1.000 OPS. I mean....

We're talking about nearly 600 PAs vs 50 with Lee. Congrats to him on stringing together a few nice weeks here, but guys go on mini heaters all the time. Royce was "heating up," around the ASB. How's that one going? 

We seriously need to stop conflating realistic expectations with negativity.

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

With a near 1.000 OPS. I mean....

We're talking about nearly 600 PAs vs 50 with Lee. Congrats to him on stringing together a few nice weeks here, but guys go on mini heaters all the time. Royce was "heating up," around the ASB. How's that one going? 

We seriously need to stop conflating realistic expectations with negativity.

His BB rate has materially improved. The approach is better. SSS doesn’t negate the eye test or that he is +.7 since the deadline. It’s better than the alternative. So you are stating your opinion is the realistic opinion? Look I could be optimistic, at least I do have a reason to support it. 

[KirbyDome89]

7 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

His BB rate has materially improved. The approach is better. SSS doesn’t negate the eye test or that he is +.7 since the deadline. It’s better than the alternative. So you are stating your opinion is the realistic opinion? Look I could be optimistic, at least I do have a reason to support it. 

Yeah, I am. I think he's much more likely the mid-low .600 OPS guy we've seen the last 1.5 seasons than the near 1.000 OPS guy he's been for the last 2 weeks. 

[KirbyDome89]

38 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Bailey Ober was 25 when he came up to MLB.  Joe Ryan was 25  

Abel is 23 and Bradley is 24.  Both were rated much higher than either Ryan or Ober.  Yes in a SSS for Abel he has underperformed.  Bradley has performed like a mid rotation arm in the MLB for 2 years.  Now the Twins think they can improve his stuff with the splitter.  At the very least give them the offseason.   Other than SWR both of these pitchers pitched in the MLB at a younger age.   Their stuff is also considered better than most of the people you are discussing as well.  

You understand how easy/fast it is to fact check these types of claims right? 

[bunsen82]

28 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You understand how easy/fast it is to fact check these types of claims right? 

What is wrong with you? Taj had a very solid year last year , started off well before falling apart this summer. He had nearly 2 years of being a mid to backend starter. 

[KirbyDome89]

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

What is wrong with you? Taj had a very solid year last year , started off well before falling apart this summer. He had nearly 2 years of being a mid to backend starter. 

You said he was a mid rotation arm for two years, now it's "mid-backend for nearly 2." How far are we going to slide the goalposts?

He was terrible in '23. Terrible. He was decent last year, and it's debatable whether that was true mid rotation performance but it doesn't really matter, because he pitched himself out of the Rays rotation and back to AAA by July. So where are you getting two seasons worth of mid rotation performance? He didn't even make it through half of this year before being demoted, and 2023 is off the table so.....

[bunsen82]

20 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You said he was a mid rotation arm for two years, now it's "mid-backend for nearly 2." How far are we going to slide the goalposts?

He was terrible in '23. Terrible. He was decent last year, and it's debatable whether that was true mid rotation performance but it doesn't really matter, because he pitched himself out of the Rays rotation and back to AAA by July. So where are you getting two seasons worth of mid rotation performance? He didn't even make it through half of this year before being demoted, and 2023 is off the table so.....

I’m counting g end of 23, all of 24 and April and May of 25. You dislike him. Read my posts I haven’t changed any goal posts. I’ve been very clear mid to back end starter since the deadline. I’m done arguing with you. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah, I am. I think he's much more likely the mid-low .600 OPS guy we've seen the last 1.5 seasons than the near 1.000 OPS guy he's been for the last 2 weeks. 

For the record, Lee's post trade deadline "surge" has an August line of

.238/.326/.413

[KirbyDome89]

11 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I’m counting g end of 23, all of 24 and April and May of 25. You dislike him. Read my posts I haven’t changed any goal posts. I’ve been very clear mid to back end starter since the deadline. I’m done arguing with you. 

The end of '23!? He posted a 5 something ERA that September, which I guess was an improvement on his near 8 ERA in July that had him back in AAA for all of August. I guess you can cherry pick individual games (you're almost there anyway) across his career in an effort to get to 2 seasons worth of starts, but I doubt even that'd make the argument work. 

No, you were very clear that he was a mid rotation starter for 2 seasons. I'd want to stop arguing too if I backed myself into a corner...

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I’m counting g end of 23, all of 24 and April and May of 25. You dislike him. Read my posts I haven’t changed any goal posts. I’ve been very clear mid to back end starter since the deadline. I’m done arguing with you. 

Bradley is 19-28 with a career 4.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

Spin that as you will. 

I'd call it a "mid rotation starter" for St Paul.

[bunsen82]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Bradley is 19-28 with a career 4.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

Spin that as you will. 

I'd call it a "mid rotation starter" for St Paul.

He was 1,7 WAR last year. Better than a couple of Ryan’s years. Guess he is mid rotation. 

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Bradley is 19-28 with a career 4.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

Spin that as you will. 

I'd call it a "mid rotation starter" for St Paul.

Glad you aren’t in charge of the Twins org. 

[Irishman]

Ownership is joke.

FO is joke.

Team is joke.

Why should I come to Target Field to watch the Twins?  Twins suck.  Freaking NO! I refuse to come to Target Field.

 

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

He was 1,7 WAR last year. Better than a couple of Ryan’s years. Guess he is mid rotation. 

You just can't help stretching this stuff can you....

Bradley was "better," by WAR (pitching WAR no less) in one singular season (1.5 vs. 1.7) but in reality those two seasons were virtually identical. Also, we should note that the Joe Ryan season in question is his worst as a pro vs. Bradley's best, and that Bradley hasn't come close to matching anything Ryan has done in any of Ryan's other three seasons. 

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Glad you aren’t in charge of the Twins org. 

Ditto. Heavy Dave St. Peter i.e. be happy with an a** tier product, type energy from your posts. 

[bunsen82]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You just can't help stretching this stuff can you....

Bradley was "better," by WAR (pitching WAR no less) in one singular season (1.5 vs. 1.7) but in reality those two seasons were virtually identical. Also, we should note that the Joe Ryan season in question is his worst as a pro vs. Bradley's best, and that Bradley hasn't come close to matching anything Ryan has done in any of Ryan's other three seasons. 

Ditto. Heavy Dave St. Peter i.e. be happy with an a** tier product, type energy from your posts. 

He beat WAR on 2 years as I stated.  2021 and 2023.   Yes so Far Bradley hasn't matched it with the Rays.  You could say Ryan needed the Twins to help unlock his full potential which lets be real has been a bit of a roller coaster.  Amazing starts of the season followed by struggles in the second half (yes I am one of the biggest Joe Ryan supporters stating he is a #1 pitcher and defending that statement in May and June).  

As to USAChief lets just say we had a gentlemens agreement to ignore each others posts.  So much for that.  You should ask him about Draft Capital. he keeps bringing it up in the game threads.  

[MGX]

The bottom line is we traded a 30 year old inconsistent reliever for a 24 year old SP who already has 350+ solid IP in MLB. Who knows how it will work out, but the Twins need to make that trade every day.

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I am optimistic you and others can be negative. 

What was I being negative about? I posted real life major league stats, you just move the goal posts to make you optimistic view more likely to happen. I compared 9 pitchers to Ryan and Ober and asked which one(s) were like them, and you switched it to age and rankings (because the answer was maybe one SWR) and left out all the guys already older than Ober and Ryan were. Based on everything Abel does have the best chance to be something, he only recently turned 24.  I haven't and would not ever deny that. You changed again to say Bradley was a mid rotation guy and Ober was just OK. yet after 31 starts Ober's WAR was 2.2 and Bradley after 46 starts was 1.8 and now is .8 after 68 starts, Ryan 2.8 after 32 starts.  

It isn't being negative to say the probability of these pitchers being Jax or Sands is MUCH, MUCH higher than them being Ober let alone Ryan. Some of us are sick and tired of the play from our favorite team for a half of decade and what them to better and same old story is being told that we are just a year or two away when the next big things get here, and that hasn't happened, but hey this time is going to be different right? because finally this FO has changed or figured it out. Wasn't this current administration brought in make the Twins a perennial contender? (and the more guys they lose from the previous administration the worse they seem to do)

[Riverbrian]

Can they develop players at the level of their peers? That is where the "Any Reason to Believe" rests. 

We picked up a lot of prospects in the deadline trades. We can win those trades if we are able to develop who we acquired and develop those already in our system. Can we make them better baseball players? It all rests on the development of our young talent either recently acquired or those who are in the system. 

If we can develop talent... we are in better shape right now than we were before the trade deadline because we cleaned the slate and added talent. We could be back to a playoff race sooner than a lot of you imagine. I'm not talking about Jenkins alone. We will need Jenkins and other young talent contributing. A lot of others. 

If we can't develop talent... If they don't believe in their own farm system production and end up filling roster space with cheap one year vet filler instead. We are in worse shape after the deadline and this could take awhile. If all we can do is add a Keaschall to the mix and that is the extent of the yearly harvest. This will take awhile.     

 

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What was I being negative about? I posted real life major league stats, you just move the goal posts to make you optimistic view more likely to happen. I compared 9 pitchers to Ryan and Ober and asked which one(s) were like them, and you switched it to age and rankings (because the answer was maybe one SWR) and left out all the guys already older than Ober and Ryan were. Based on everything Abel does have the best chance to be something, he only recently turned 24.  I haven't and would not ever deny that. You changed again to say Bradley was a mid rotation guy and Ober was just OK. yet after 31 starts Ober's WAR was 2.2 and Bradley after 46 starts was 1.8 and now is .8 after 68 starts, Ryan 2.8 after 32 starts.  

It isn't being negative to say the probability of these pitchers being Jax or Sands is MUCH, MUCH higher than them being Ober let alone Ryan. Some of us are sick and tired of the play from our favorite team for a half of decade and what them to better and same old story is being told that we are just a year or two away when the next big things get here, and that hasn't happened, but hey this time is going to be different right? because finally this FO has changed or figured it out. Wasn't this current administration brought in make the Twins a perennial contender? (and the more guys they lose from the previous administration the worse they seem to do)

Look I am not trying to be argumentative.  I believe my point of comparing Ober and Ryan to Bradley and Abel is that both of the latter prospects had been ranked much higher on prospect lists. I don't remember saying Ober was just ok (other than in his current format with injuries and reduced velocity we may not get as much out of him).   I had done a cursory look and thought everyone other than SWR had pitched at a higher age.  Both Bradley and Abel have been pushed hard in their careers advancing levels when still very young.  It leaves some obvious upside due to their age and they do have the ability to continue to improve from better coaching or strategy.   

Bradley seems to almost have a bit of the yips.  Not having good control and really only having the fastball.  There is quite a bit of variability.  However he regains control and a good splitter, suddenly everything else works again and possibly better.  

Look you don't think this front office can get it done.  My guess is Falvey stays and Baldelli stays.  Baldelli is in a rockier position though.  2021 everything clicked.  Since then we have misfired on certain areas even after nailing others.  You have to give credit for Ryan and Gray and Lopez.  Say what you will they have been able to accumalate and get great performances out of starting pitching.  

At this point I am going to sit back and watch.  See if the improvements begin to show up.  I will be more than willing to revisit this next season if you are. Right now neither one of us is going to change the others opinion.  

[MN_ExPat]

Footage from the latest Pohlad's Board Meeting

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

14 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Glad you aren’t in charge of the Twins org. 

I could come up with a dozen Twins Daily posters off the top of my head who I would trust more than the current crew. 

As for Taj Bradley, in a vacuum, sure I do think he has the inside track to win the #4 or #5 spot next year from among the group of Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Festa, Abel. There I even ranked them for you (you’re welcome). I would absolutely not trade Pablo Ryan or Ober. Bradley is a nice kid. But he’s not a prospect at this point. I would feel out SWR or Festa for bullpen roles. There was talk last year about stretching out Sands as a starter again. Maybe. 

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I could come up with a dozen Twins Daily posters off the top of my head who I would trust more than the current crew. 

As for Taj Bradley, in a vacuum, sure I do think he has the inside track to win the #4 or #5 spot next year from among the group of Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Festa, Abel. There I even ranked them for you (you’re welcome). I would absolutely not trade Pablo Ryan or Ober. Bradley is a nice kid. But he’s not a prospect at this point. I would feel out SWR or Festa for bullpen roles. There was talk last year about stretching out Sands as a starter again. Maybe. 

I completely agree with your take on the players. As to who could run an org, I really don’t think any of us are there. It’s like saying we could play better than current players. Most of us would run orgs into the ground. 

[chpettit19]

21 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, that's the only reason. And obviously a big one, but here are the top 16 paid managers in the league (cropped because I'm sure nobody thinks the twins are paying a manager top 6 money)

So despite his tenure, he can't even crack the top 16. Even the Twins will pay some nobody free agent reliever 1M this off season, eating Baldelli's pay would be a very cheap PR stunt.

And bonus to the Pohlads, they can probably lock in some unqualified NEW manager for 750K to 800K per year to run a dysfunctional team nobody else will want to run. 

Fine, I'll do it.