What Recent Trade Deadlines Say About Value of Twins' Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe

[PuckettProtector]

9 hours ago, se7799 said:

Well the Twins did make the past season 2 years ago and still have a chance to this year.  But ya congrats on picking your favorite team to lose every year.  Sounds like a fun way to be.

Someone call the whambulance. There's a difference between being a fan and being delusional. Only homers think their team is always in it. Even if we snag a wild card spot, we aren't making any noise in the playoffs. So instead of being a homer, how about you be pragmatic and root for this team to add some legitimate talent to improve our chances in the future? Because setting them up to win some year is better than expecting them to do it every year. 

[jkcarew]

The author overstates the value of these returns using mostly words, and some bad numbers…

• Dylan Floro, a 33-year-old journeyman with a 2.06 ERA, was flipped for Andrés Chaparro, a slugging corner infielder with a .950+ OPS in Triple-A.

 

Chaparro, for instance, is 26 years old, he’s had over 1000 AAA PA,  with an 863 OPS (950+??)…all in the International League (almost identical to Edouard Julien’s IL OPS, in addition to being the same age as Julien). Meanwhile, he’s only playing DH and 1B in 2025, so his status as a ‘corner infielder’ also seems in question.

The profile is much more “40-man roster depth” than “emerging corner-infield slugger”.

[TheLeviathan]

Great article with great comps!  

Relievers have high fluctuation rates in performance.  The Twins have shown to be able to turn guys into great back-end relievers.  This is where you deal from a strength, to get a haul, and expand your chances in the future.

Trade Stewart.  Trade Columbe.  Trade Jax or Duran. 

Also, as an aside, I would really like Dan Hayes to reveal who he's hearing the "we won't trade for prospects, only a major league impact bat" buzz from.  I'd like to personally try and get that person fired for the wild level of incompetence they display.

[RpR]

10 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Even more importantly, ace Frank Viola was traded for 5 players that included Aguilar and Tapani, not to mention David West. These three players pitched a combined 384.1 innings in '91 to a 3.16 ERA. 

Yes this trading always makes thing better. Trading Santana for Gomez and two no-bodies, then trading Gomez ( a future multi-year All Star) for J.J. Hardy; then trading Hardy ( a future three time Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and All Star ) for nobodies, and of course so they could get some one who could make Julien look like an All-Star - Nishioka.

Yep crap shoot trade,  so if what you get is junk, you can keep on trading for more junk.

It seems, at times,, some here are more into the youths of the Minors, than the Twins team or they would not want changes that would more likely , than not, turn the Twins into a team fighting to not finsh fifth in a five place division.

[NYCTK]

10 hours ago, RpR said:

Yes this trading always makes thing better. Trading Santana for Gomez and two no-bodies, then trading Gomez ( a future multi-year All Star) for J.J. Hardy; then trading Hardy ( a future three time Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and All Star ) for nobodies

That's a 2/3 trade success story. That's pretty good!

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Even more importantly, ace Frank Viola was traded for 5 players that included Aguilar and Tapani, not to mention David West. These three players pitched a combined 384.1 innings in '91 to a 3.16 ERA. 

The Twins don’t have a player like Viola with a no trade clause 

[Twinsrtheworst]

14 hours ago, PuckettProtector said:

Someone call the whambulance. There's a difference between being a fan and being delusional. Only homers think their team is always in it. Even if we snag a wild card spot, we aren't making any noise in the playoffs. So instead of being a homer, how about you be pragmatic and root for this team to add some legitimate talent to improve our chances in the future? Because setting them up to win some year is better than expecting them to do it every year. 

Since you quoted me, where did I state I’m against adding talent? What is it that makes me a homer?  I don’t even reside in Minnesota. I advocate adding talent to improve the roster.  Let me ask you , what trades and suggestions do you have???

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Great article with great comps!  

Relievers have high fluctuation rates in performance.  The Twins have shown to be able to turn guys into great back-end relievers.  This is where you deal from a strength, to get a haul, and expand your chances in the future.

Trade Stewart.  Trade Columbe.  Trade Jax or Duran. 

Also, as an aside, I would really like Dan Hayes to reveal who he's hearing the "we won't trade for prospects, only a major league impact bat" buzz from.  I'd like to personally try and get that person fired for the wild level of incompetence they display.

They are poor comps as prospects fail.  It is not incompetence to want known quantities. The Ryan for Cruz is the anomaly. The trades that ave netted a good player involve an consistent all star level player. That is not what the Twins have to trade. The unnamed employee is not incompetent. 

[Rufus]

22 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Even more importantly, ace Frank Viola was traded for 5 players that included Aguilar and Tapani, not to mention David West. These three players pitched a combined 384.1 innings in '91 to a 3.16 ERA. 

Gaetti was not traded he left as a free agent

[TheLeviathan]

53 minutes ago, old nurse said:

They are poor comps as prospects fail.  It is not incompetence to want known quantities. The Ryan for Cruz is the anomaly. The trades that ave netted a good player involve an consistent all star level player. That is not what the Twins have to trade. The unnamed employee is not incompetent. 

You apparently didn't read the article.  The Twins absolutely have at least two coveted players who could land tremendous hauls and several lesser assets that are still valuable.  

It is incompetent to think a contending team is going to remove someone from their every day lineup to trade for their bullpen.  That's counter-productive.  If they are demanding that in trades....they are absolutely incompetent.

Targeting AAA players or AA players needing to graduate is the way.  This team doesn't have enough talent to win in the next few years without it.

[jorgenswest]

12 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The author overstates the value of these returns using mostly words, and some bad numbers…

• Dylan Floro, a 33-year-old journeyman with a 2.06 ERA, was flipped for Andrés Chaparro, a slugging corner infielder with a .950+ OPS in Triple-A.

 

Chaparro, for instance, is 26 years old, he’s had over 1000 AAA PA,  with an 863 OPS (950+??)…all in the International League (almost identical to Edouard Julien’s IL OPS, in addition to being the same age as Julien). Meanwhile, he’s only playing DH and 1B in 2025, so his status as a ‘corner infielder’ also seems in question.

The profile is much more “40-man roster depth” than “emerging corner-infield slugger”.

Good point. Chaparro’s future value by Fangraphs was 35+. 40 is a bench player. 35 is emergency call up.

[Otaknam]

I really like Bader and his aggressiveness. He has some power and is an exclamation defender. So I hope they extend him. It wouldn’t surprise me if either Larnach or Wallner is traded, as they are pretty much duplicate players, though Wallner has the better arm. This team is not positioned for any playoff run, so I think Duran and Coulume will be traded this season and hopefully bring a haul. Then move Jax to closer. 

[TNtwins85]

On 7/16/2025 at 8:16 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here is an exact quote from Dan Hayes in his article today. I won't give the whole article away, but I found it interesting. Published at 5:15am.

"It's conceivable the Twins could trade one of their talented team-controlled relievers, Duran, Jax or Stewart. However, it would be shocking if they traded any for prospects unless they received a massive overpay. The likelier path to parting with one of their relievers is by adding a major-league bat they think could immediately help the team. Essentially, they'd be trading from a strength to fill a weakness."

Take that for what you will.

Well, one can only speculate what conversations actually look like behind closed doors but what about this crazy idea. Go all in for a rental bat or two which won’t cost them much in prospect capital( we’re talking the 10-30 prospects here) and let it ride. If they make a run great! If they falter well then that just tells them that large earth shattering shakeups must come. You can trade those guys then and you probably still get good capital in prospects and you can trade them both. Hell, package them both to the same team! This all depends on where they are at come July 31st. Hopefully the team makes it obvious by then which route they must go. If they don’t then they probably run the last 2 deadlines back again.

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Well, one can only speculate what conversations actually look like behind closed doors but what about this crazy idea. Go all in for a rental bat or two which won’t cost them much in prospect capital( we’re talking the 10-30 prospects here) and let it ride. If they make a run great! If they falter well then that just tells them that large earth shattering shakeups must come. You can trade those guys then and you probably still get good capital in prospects and you can trade them both. Hell, package them both to the same team! This all depends on where they are at come July 31st. Hopefully the team makes it obvious by then which route they must go. If they don’t then they probably run the last 2 deadlines back again.

I'm all for this. I would absolutely love if they both A) Traded their free agents to be, which is opening up spots for guys at AAA to potentially get a look, and B) sent some prospects for a 1B/DH/OF bat or two that would solidify the lineup. That would be a great deadline in my opinion.

In the end, even if they ONLY sell but Lewis and Wallner and Correa don't wake up, then it won't matter. Same if they actually buy, it's kind of those 3 who have to start hitting like they are expected to that will drive the last 2+ months anyway.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

That's a 2/3 trade success story. That's pretty good!

Had they kept either Gomez or especially Hardy, but they did not and the gents they traded flourished with other teams.

It is normal probably , but , the players the Twins trade for are let go , as with the Twins perform not well, or come here and have a excellent year or two then fizzle out. 

I some times think the ones that do well, do well, before,  they become Baldellized.

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

You apparently didn't read the article.  The Twins absolutely have at least two coveted players who could land tremendous hauls and several lesser assets that are still valuable.  

It is incompetent to think a contending team is going to remove someone from their every day lineup to trade for their bullpen.  That's counter-productive.  If they are demanding that in trades....they are absolutely incompetent.

Targeting AAA players or AA players needing to graduate is the way.  This team doesn't have enough talent to win in the next few years without it.

You apparently haven’t seen the outcomes of the players traded who were are at the level of those mentioned  in the article.  Funny how Tampa can trade for impact bats ad the Twins cannot 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

You apparently haven’t seen the outcomes of the players traded who were are at the level of those mentioned  in the article.  Funny how Tampa can trade for impact bats ad the Twins cannot 

I'm not sure this is coherent, but if you want to tell me the Twins can get a top 50 prospect for Jax or Duran....I'm all ears.  That's just leveraging value.

[old nurse]

On 7/17/2025 at 8:56 PM, TheLeviathan said:

I'm not sure this is coherent, but if you want to tell me the Twins can get a top 50 prospect for Jax or Duran....I'm all ears.  That's just leveraging value.

I am trying to tell you the notion that they can get an impact bat through trades. I am telling you that you need to do your homework on the results of trades of players like Jax and Duran.  I can also now tell you that you probably aven’t done your homework on outcomes for top 50 prospects 

[TheLeviathan]

24 minutes ago, old nurse said:

I am trying to tell you the notion that they can get an impact bat through trades. I am telling you that you need to do your homework on the results of trades of players like Jax and Duran.  I can also now tell you that you probably aven’t done your homework on outcomes for top 50 prospects 

Life guaratees almost nothing.  But doing nothing?  That will guarantee lost value.

[jorgenswest]

Going by prospect numbers there are going to be about 10 players that have an FV of 60 or better. The next about 20 players will have an FV of 55. There will around 100 players after that with an FV of 50. A 60 FV has a future value as a #3 starter or plus position player. A 50 FV player has a future value of number 4 starter or average regular.

If you are going to trade Ryan or Duran and all of their remaining control I sure hope they should a lot higher than the number 50 prospect. I need a top 10 overall prospect overall before I start listening. If the Red Sox want to start with Roman Anthony or the Dodgers want to start with Dalton Rushing I am listening but I need more. Otherwise I am waiting a year and giving myself a better chance to compete in 2026.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Going by prospect numbers there are going to be about 10 players that have an FV of 60 or better. The next about 20 players will have an FV of 55. There will around 100 players after that with an FV of 50. A 60 FV has a future value as a #3 starter or plus position player. A 50 FV player has a future value of number 4 starter or average regular.

If you are going to trade Ryan or Duran and all of their remaining control I sure hope they should a lot higher than the number 50 prospect. I need a top 10 overall prospect overall before I start listening. If the Red Sox want to start with Roman Anthony or the Dodgers want to start with Dalton Rushing I am listening but I need more. Otherwise I am waiting a year and giving myself a better chance to compete in 2026.

I can't see getting even close to a top ten overall prospect for a RP. If they did, you'd have to take it. 

[jorgenswest]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't see getting even close to a top ten overall prospect for a RP. If they did, you'd have to take it. 

Agree completely. Elite relievers are so valuable in the playoffs though. With the more frequent off days they can impact nearly every close game. The Twins need to be blown away to give away three years of playoff control. They have a completely healthy bullpen and still have holes this year. Chop off the top of the bullpen and those holes will be gaping for 2026. You only need to look at the 5 players in ESPN’s top tier of traded prospects for 2024 to know that getting a prospect not near the top 10 overall has a strong chance of failure.

Players in the top 10 are rarely traded. All Star caliber starters or closers with that 3 years of playoff control are rarely traded. I am not sure if anyone has put up one comp to a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran that was traded at the deadline with their years of control.

Do the Dodgers want to improve their chances to win this year? Ryan or Duran are going to help them repeat more than the injured Sasaki or Rushing. The same is probably true for 2026. Make them pay or hang up the phone. The Twins have the leverage. They are under their control until 2028.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Life guaratees almost nothing.  But doing nothing?  That will guarantee lost value.

I did not say to do nothing. Try again without inventing a position for me. The goal of trades is to get an impact bat.  That is something that you derived them for. The trade Milwaukee made for Contreras and the Rays for Arozerena show that it can be done. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

I did not say to do nothing. Try again without inventing a position for me. The goal of trades is to get an impact bat.  That is something that you derived them for. The trade Milwaukee made for Contreras and the Rays for Arozerena show that it can be done. 

You haven't given a position, just vague, muddled arguments.  In fact, your initial beef was with me calling it foolish and incompetent for the Twins to think they can deal Duran or Jax for a guy who is in someone else's major league lineup.   I 100% stand by it.

You now give me an example from Tampa that happened in the offseason, for a hitter that was not a major leaguer at that time.  You also gave another example (at least this time it was a major leaguer) that happened in the offseason.

Neither refute that it's foolish, in July, to think you are going to get someone's 2 hitter Randy Arozerena for Duran.  That deal isn't going to happen right now and the Twins shouldn't be shutting any doors with demands like that.  They can also wait and try to make that sort of a deal in the offseason, but limiting your options is a foolish way to trade.

[old nurse]

On 7/21/2025 at 7:56 AM, TheLeviathan said:

You haven't given a position, just vague, muddled arguments.  In fact, your initial beef was with me calling it foolish and incompetent for the Twins to think they can deal Duran or Jax for a guy who is in someone else's major league lineup.   I 100% stand by it.

You now give me an example from Tampa that happened in the offseason, for a hitter that was not a major leaguer at that time.  You also gave another example (at least this time it was a major leaguer) that happened in the offseason.

Neither refute that it's foolish, in July, to think you are going to get someone's 2 hitter Randy Arozerena for Duran.  That deal isn't going to happen right now and the Twins shouldn't be shutting any doors with demands like that.  They can also wait and try to make that sort of a deal in the offseason, but limiting your options is a foolish way to trade.

It is incompetent to think a contending team is going to remove someone from their every day lineup to trade for their bullpen.  That's counter-productive.  If they are demanding that in trades....they are absolutely incompetent.

those were your words that you are now saying you never said 

[TheLeviathan]

59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

It is incompetent to think a contending team is going to remove someone from their every day lineup to trade for their bullpen.  That's counter-productive.  If they are demanding that in trades....they are absolutely incompetent.

those were your words that you are now saying you never said 

I actually did.  Plus my first post references the Dan Hayes article that I refwrred to.

[old nurse]

On 7/22/2025 at 9:24 AM, TheLeviathan said:

I actually did.  Plus my first post references the Dan Hayes article that I refwrred to.

Nobody ever said they had to be traded for someone in the everyday lineup.