Roster changes to salvage the season, or to re-build

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Looking at the Twins performance over the last 162 games (since game 79 on 24 June 2024, a 4-5 loss to AZD), it is clear that the current roster does not have what it takes to compete for a playoff spot this season. If there are no substantive changes, we can expect more of the same

Let's try to look at this from the VP Baseball Ops/GM role (with Manager level input). Do we choose to:

1. Attempt to right the ship and compete this year, or 
2. Throw in the towel and re-build for a season (or more) out 

The 40-man roster is below. Set aside personalities and uncontrollable factors like ownership and injuries.  Who stays and who goes to accomplish either 1. or 2?

No cheap one-line answers. If a player is DFA, who takes their spot on the roster? If a player should be traded, whom should we trade for, and how much will it cost in cash or prospects?

When the sorting is done, what kind of talent should we have that we don't now, and what would the ball club have to do to acquire that talent? Discuss!

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Falvey gave an extensive interview just yesterday or recently, whenever it was. He stated that the team needs to figure out how to turn things around but he reiterated a view he has clearly vocalized on numerous previous occasions - the roster was built to compete and he believes in this team. 

There are a number of people who do not necessarily take Falvey at his word when he speaks. I don't know the guy, but I just take him at his word. This is the roster he wanted.

As far as making changes or designing a roster goes, Twins Daily ran those for a couple of Novembers with zero enthusiasm for it last offseason. The reality is that this is Falvey's team, both the style of play and the roster. 

I'm a baseball fan and a Twins fan (since 1961). Right now, things are going about as expected more or less. The extremes are a little drastic, but I can still see this team finish around 80 wins. 

The only change in the foreseeable future will need to be driven by Joe Pohlad. I don't know what his interest in baseball or the Twins is at a player/roster level. A decision to reduce the player budget to around $90 million would create change though and I can't see how it would drastically alter the income of the team. However, realistically, I don't see any change coming until the team is sold which could be at least a couple of years away. I have no idea or feel for that process.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

This is an interesting exercise because it forces us all to look at the organization as a whole. I would normally be in the camp of "trade the vets with value and play the young(ish), up and coming guys". Unfortunately, I think were already doing that to the extent it is possible by playing Castro, Wallner, Lee, and Larnach every day, and pitching Festa, SWR, and Varland regularly. A review of what we can have in the minors and where they are in their development frankly led me to the conclusion that we are frankly doing almost as much as we can in terms of promoting guys and giving them a shot. That leads to the obvious question – we can blow it up but for who? This is where the continued struggles of Julien, Miranda, and ERod really hurt. They should be the guys taking over for our more fungible players like Bride, Clemens, and Keirsey, but they are either struggling in AAA or hurt.

Some of the problems will play themselves out. Bride and Keirsey will be gone as soon as Lewis and Keschall come back from injury. Clemens is one sustained AAA hot streak by either Julien or Miranda away from hitting the DFA wire himself. There is no one to replace Vasquez so that will have to wait until the off-season. I would either re–sign Paddack on a value incentive laden contract or, if we can't do that, trade him if we can get any sort of value for him, assuming Matthews is back by the trade deadline to take his spot in the rotation.

So what should we do? I think that starts with recognizing who and where this team is; an average to slightly above average club when all of the primary players are healthy and available but without enough depth to withstand significant injury, particularly to the starting pitching staff. This team went in the tank last year when Joe Ryan got hurt. This team went into the tank this year when Pablo Lopez got hurt. That tells you we cannot withstand an injury to an important starting pitcher.

Below is what I would do for the rest of this season. Unfortunately, it's probably not enough and that's because we just don't have enough good players at the AAA level to have a lot of confidence about turning over the roster. I think we need to do at least this much going to the off-season to have some idea of where we are.

(1) Make a decision about next year for the 4 key players on expiring contracts – Castro, France, Paddack, and Bader. I would try to sign Castro now and trade him if we cannot re-sign him, keep Bader for the rest of the year and think about re-signing him in the off-season, and trade France. Paddack is a much harder decision because quality starting pitchers even in the #4 hole are so hard to find and he has shown flashes of fitting that definition. I would shop him in late July assuming Matthews is back.

(2) Play the players we will need to step up to compete next season and play them almost every day. That's Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, and Keaschall in the field, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Varland, and Funderburk on the mound. Give ERod some run this year starting in mid July. I don't see another player in AAA ready for that run but if you think there is one, same deal. This also applies to Kaleb Culpepper; if he does well in AA, bring him up in August and see if he can play at the big league level. If these guys perform well and that helps this year, great. If not, take your lumps now to find out what you have.

(3) Find out whether Julien and Miranda can be salvaged. Both have one thing going for them that all of our other "prospects" do not; they have had success at the major-league level. Both need to be on the big club in the second half and playing some. My thought is they can be the first base platoon once France is traded.

(4) Pitch SWR and Festa every fifth day until Matthews returns. Chances are we will be down a starter due to injury but if not, SWR and Festa are pitching for one spot once Matthews is ready to go. The point is to find out if any or all of those three can actually be rotation pieces next year.

I think our biggest problem is that we have been unwilling to pick a direction and have been left in this purgatory of the mediocre middle. I think the direction is obvious. We have to shift to a new core based on the players listed above above plus Buxton, Correa, Jeffers, Duran, and Jax. Essentially every other veteran is fungible. Next season is too late to make the shift. We need to do it for the second half of the season and ride with it. It may be ugly, but it's pretty ugly now and there is little to no hope for improvement. We need plan for next year's roster and not worry about sneaking into the playoffs this year. We just aren't good enough to be contenders.

 

[strumdatjag]

Before the deadline - SELL (get something for Bader, Castro, Paddack, France, Coulombe).  .  Lower the payroll, in order to help to get the team sold.   
The minor league system will be boosted.  Moreover, the new owners will be put in a position to reshape the team.    While the team is up for sale, it is not likely to succeed.

[Vanimal46]

I don’t think Falvey will pick either one of your paths laid out and stay the course. 

They’ll make trades if they have an immediate replacement in AAA. So to break it down…

Castro - Should be traded if he isn’t signing another contract here. Keaschall or Martin is ready to take over at 2B or LF. 

Bader - We don’t have anyone who can fill in at CF and play even mediocre defense. He should stay and potentially discuss an extension. 

Coloumbe - 95% chance he’s traded. Left handed and breathing is valuable and his contract fits anyone’s budget. Funderburk or Prielipp takes over. 

Paddack - I would trade if the opportunity presents itself. 

Maybe Miranda and Julien are change of scenery trade candidates in July. But my guess is that’s an offseason discussion. 

[stringer bell]

The Twins are not a young team. Brooks Lee is the only active position player born in this century and he's more than three years younger than the second youngest (Wallner). They don't have much team speed and it shows in their defense and base running. I'd like to say get rid of plodding bat-first or bat-only guys. Probably one of Larnach or Wallner. Two of the faster guys, Castro and Bader, are on expiring contracts, with Bader having a mutual option. Castro has been valuable for the Twins, but his base running and fielding have suffered. If the Twins can get good value, they need to let go of their multi-position security blanket. If Bader can be maintained for the mutural option amount or a bit more, keep him.

On the pitching side, what was the envy of most of MLB has fallen apart rather rapidly and abruptly. Having four top starters in their 20s and effective and three of them under team control for multiple years is great. Then Pablo López got injured, Bailey Ober lost his mojo, and Chris Paddack reverted a bit. Add in the Matthews injury and suddenly the rotation was in shambles. More short and bad starts exposed the front end of the bullpen as suspect. I guess it just shows that pitching needs to be stockpiled. Other than perhaps Danny Coulombe, I don't see any easy sell targets in the Twins' BP. If they can get a huge return for someone, they should probably sell.

I don't see Julien or Miranda as having much value in a trade and I don't hold a lot of hope for either helping the Twins long-term.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

On 6/25/2025 at 12:13 AM, strumdatjag said:

Before the deadline - SELL (get something for Bader, Castro, Paddack, France, Coulombe).

Flag on the play!

Sell for what or whom? How much do we think we can get for their salaries, which aside from Bader, are rather low?

 

On 6/25/2025 at 12:22 AM, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think Falvey will pick either one of your paths laid out and stay the course. 

They’ll make trades if they have an immediate replacement in AAA. So to break it down…

Castro - Should be traded if he isn’t signing another contract here. Keaschall or Martin is ready to take over at 2B or LF. 

Bader - We don’t have anyone who can fill in at CF and play even mediocre defense. He should stay and potentially discuss an extension. 

Coloumbe - 95% chance he’s traded. Left handed and breathing is valuable and his contract fits anyone’s budget. Funderburk or Prielipp takes over. 

Paddack - I would trade if the opportunity presents itself. 

Maybe Miranda and Julien are change of scenery trade candidates in July. But my guess is that’s an offseason discussion. 

Thoughtful post.  Likewise I think Bader is a valuable piece, and rank him equal to Castro.
But again, trade for what/whom?  And what would their salaries buy us?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

On 6/26/2025 at 9:58 PM, stringer bell said:

The Twins are not a young team.

Exactly why I asked the question. Stay or go time for the club and a large number of players on the 40-man.

On 6/26/2025 at 9:58 PM, stringer bell said:

I guess it just shows that pitching needs to be stockpiled.

The jury is still out on the starting staff, with Ober being the largest question mark at the moment. My personal judgement is that the Twins are in the top 6 of stockpiling starters for the season. and the gods are testing that depth right now.

[strumdatjag]

6 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Flag on the play!

Sell for what or whom? How much do we think we can get for their salaries, which aside from Bader, are rather low?

 

Thoughtful post.  Likewise I think Bader is a valuable piece, and rank him equal to Castro.
But again, trade for what/whom?  And what would their salaries buy us?

Castro is a free agent after this season.   The Twins can sign him if they want him back.  He is a talented and versatile player that a team could use before and during the playoffs.   
Bader had a very good year in 2021 for St Louis and is having a good one this year.  But otherwise Bader has been a part-timer with a good glove and a below-mediocre to worse bat - trade!   
Martin and Keirsey can play CF if Buxton goes down.  

Since so many teams are eligible for the post-season, I expect France, Paddack, Castro, Bader and Coulombe are likely to net decent prospects in return.  Of course, the Twins shouldn’t take bad offers, But at least expect good but belowTop 100 prospect level.  The market will be good.  
Duran or Jax should net a high level prospect, and should be considered for a trade.  
Granted,if the Twins turn this 3 game winning streak into a 6 game streak, they move out of the Seller’s market.  

[stringer bell]

One correction to the 40-man roster posted above is that Michael Tonkin was outrighted and is now off the 40-man roster. Also the outfielders were listed twice FWIW. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Michael Tonkin was outrighted and is now off the 40-man roster

Blink these days and you might miss something.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Also the outfielders were listed twice FWIW. 

Fixed.

[DocBauer]

On 6/24/2025 at 10:11 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is an interesting exercise because it forces us all to look at the organization as a whole. I would normally be in the camp of "trade the vets with value and play the young(ish), up and coming guys". Unfortunately, I think were already doing that to the extent it is possible by playing Castro, Wallner, Lee, and Larnach every day, and pitching Festa, SWR, and Varland regularly. A review of what we can have in the minors and where they are in their development frankly led me to the conclusion that we are frankly doing almost as much as we can in terms of promoting guys and giving them a shot. That leads to the obvious question – we can blow it up but for who? This is where the continued struggles of Julien, Miranda, and ERod really hurt. They should be the guys taking over for our more fungible players like Bride, Clemens, and Keirsey, but they are either struggling in AAA or hurt.

Some of the problems will play themselves out. Bride and Keirsey will be gone as soon as Lewis and Keschall come back from injury. Clemens is one sustained AAA hot streak by either Julien or Miranda away from hitting the DFA wire himself. There is no one to replace Vasquez so that will have to wait until the off-season. I would either re–sign Paddack on a value incentive laden contract or, if we can't do that, trade him if we can get any sort of value for him, assuming Matthews is back by the trade deadline to take his spot in the rotation.

So what should we do? I think that starts with recognizing who and where this team is; an average to slightly above average club when all of the primary players are healthy and available but without enough depth to withstand significant injury, particularly to the starting pitching staff. This team went in the tank last year when Joe Ryan got hurt. This team went into the tank this year when Pablo Lopez got hurt. That tells you we cannot withstand an injury to an important starting pitcher.

Below is what I would do for the rest of this season. Unfortunately, it's probably not enough and that's because we just don't have enough good players at the AAA level to have a lot of confidence about turning over the roster. I think we need to do at least this much going to the off-season to have some idea of where we are.

(1) Make a decision about next year for the 4 key players on expiring contracts – Castro, France, Paddack, and Bader. I would try to sign Castro now and trade him if we cannot re-sign him, keep Bader for the rest of the year and think about re-signing him in the off-season, and trade France. Paddack is a much harder decision because quality starting pitchers even in the #4 hole are so hard to find and he has shown flashes of fitting that definition. I would shop him in late July assuming Matthews is back.

(2) Play the players we will need to step up to compete next season and play them almost every day. That's Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, and Keaschall in the field, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Varland, and Funderburk on the mound. Give ERod some run this year starting in mid July. I don't see another player in AAA ready for that run but if you think there is one, same deal. This also applies to Kaleb Culpepper; if he does well in AA, bring him up in August and see if he can play at the big league level. If these guys perform well and that helps this year, great. If not, take your lumps now to find out what you have.

(3) Find out whether Julien and Miranda can be salvaged. Both have one thing going for them that all of our other "prospects" do not; they have had success at the major-league level. Both need to be on the big club in the second half and playing some. My thought is they can be the first base platoon once France is traded.

(4) Pitch SWR and Festa every fifth day until Matthews returns. Chances are we will be down a starter due to injury but if not, SWR and Festa are pitching for one spot once Matthews is ready to go. The point is to find out if any or all of those three can actually be rotation pieces next year.

I think our biggest problem is that we have been unwilling to pick a direction and have been left in this purgatory of the mediocre middle. I think the direction is obvious. We have to shift to a new core based on the players listed above above plus Buxton, Correa, Jeffers, Duran, and Jax. Essentially every other veteran is fungible. Next season is too late to make the shift. We need to do it for the second half of the season and ride with it. It may be ugly, but it's pretty ugly now and there is little to no hope for improvement. We need plan for next year's roster and not worry about sneaking into the playoffs this year. We just aren't good enough to be contenders.

 

Just to add someone to your list, if the surprising Sabato keeps this up on to August, he might deserve a looksee as well.

Good post!

[DocBauer]

To be honest, @LA VIkes Fanhas already stated most of what I could say myself.

I know this is probably unpopular with a lot of people who feel the general "running it back" idea for 2025 wasn't a good idea. And some aren't on the side of Falvey saying he still likes the team as a whole, but we need to get everyone back on track, etc, etc. But I'm, more or less, on that bandwagon. 

Ownership really blew momentum to pieces following 2023. We all know that. Regardless of your opinion of the FO, they've had little to work with, unless you wanted them to just blow everything up. But the additions of Bader, France, and Coulombe have all 3 been very solid, if not good.

I keep hearing "sell, sell, sell" from some posters. But unless you really and truly believe the team is beyond salvaging the 2025 season, who are you going to trade that brings back anything helpful in the near future? IF the Twins are just OUT OF IT in a few weeks, I guess, sure, go ahead and get what you can for France, Bader, Castro, and Coulombe. But what do you get besides some AA or lower level prospects. Is that really what the Twins need right now?

I don't think this team is that far removed from contention with better health, and some tweaks that might come in the offseason, as well as promotion within.

Unfortunately, some of what I'd do is fantasy land without a change of ownership, or Joe standing up the family and stating he's going to take CHARGE. You tell me what is most likely to happen.

1] I'd really like to sign Castro for 2yrs at $16M. He's really good, not great, has had some ups and downs, but has been a major contributor. OK. So maybe 2yrs and $18M. That's a good deal for a regular who doesn't have a single position. Bader probably is looking for a bigger deal. Despite a solid season so far, is there a market that gives him a starting job somewhere? Maybe there is. But I'd keep him, if possible, and offer him a 2yr $20M deal. It's a big payday for both, but isn't too much on the trade market if younger prospects begin to take charge in 2026.

2] I'm a fan of Paddack and what he's overcome to be a solid starter for the Twins here in 2025. But unless he falls apart suddenly, he's going to get $10-13M in the offseason from someone looking for a 30yo SP with experience. You HAVE to trust in SWR, Matthews, Festa, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, etc, eventually. I'm NOT saying trade Paddack for a couple of prospects right now. He could be a part of a good 2nd half, especially with Lopez still out until August. But I am saying I don't think I'd re-sign him because you NEED to run with the younger upside SP options on hand.

IF you can get something solid for him in return, and Matthews comes back fairly soon, and Festa and SWR keep developing, move him. Otherwise, let him help the 2025 season hopefully amount to something and let him go.

3] I've stated over and over again to let Lee play daily and he'll be OK. We're starting to see that now. The Keaschall we saw in 1 week of ball is probably an illusion. That doesn't mean he isn't a really good ballplayer with a variety of skills and talent. And at some point in July, he will be back. 

4] I object to topics concerning trading Larnach. He's a really solid bat and producer who is just reaching his ceiling the past 2 seasons. I don't like him as a top 5 bat, but I really like him as a 6th option or lower.  Until Rodriguez or Jenkins step forward, he's a quality bat in the lower 3rd with Wallner in the top 5. 

5] I agree with letting the kids play as much as possible. Though "kids" is debatable. In the rotation, you bet. In the lineup? I don't agree with pushing Culpepper to MLB. Not yet. He's a possible 2026 option. As Uber talented as E Rodriguez is, it's really tempting to say "go ahead kid, do your best". I just can't get on board with that until I see at least a month of production at AAA where he looks great. Honestly, Rodriguez is an enigma of super talent. That doesn't mean he has to be rushed. But DAMN, it would be exciting to see him health and raking and at least get a September promotion.

When things AREN'T WORKING you have to look at other options. You can build a roster and think you have a good one. But again, if things aren't working, you have to look at different options.

In 2023 the team got a jump start from talented prospects. Julien and Wallner were part of that. Wallner has been struggling from his IL return, but has looked better recently. Julien has looked really good in June and might be an option to help going forward. And he might deserve another shot.

But BIG picture, the Twins shouldn't be limited for sure. There's a lot of good arms and bats right on the precipous of contributing. But disappointment from what we're seeing right now with ridiculous inconsistent production, I still think this team is so close to being very good. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But I'm, more or less, on that bandwagon.

Not a bad prescription, Doc.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

To be honest, @LA VIkes Fanhas already stated most of what I could say myself.

I know this is probably unpopular with a lot of people who feel the general "running it back" idea for 2025 wasn't a good idea. And some aren't on the side of Falvey saying he still likes the team as a whole, but we need to get everyone back on track, etc, etc. But I'm, more or less, on that bandwagon. 

Ownership really blew momentum to pieces following 2023. We all know that. Regardless of your opinion of the FO, they've had little to work with, unless you wanted them to just blow everything up. But the additions of Bader, France, and Coulombe have all 3 been very solid, if not good.

I keep hearing "sell, sell, sell" from some posters. But unless you really and truly believe the team is beyond salvaging the 2025 season, who are you going to trade that brings back anything helpful in the near future? IF the Twins are just OUT OF IT in a few weeks, I guess, sure, go ahead and get what you can for France, Bader, Castro, and Coulombe. But what do you get besides some AA or lower level prospects. Is that really what the Twins need right now?

I don't think this team is that far removed from contention with better health, and some tweaks that might come in the offseason, as well as promotion within.

Unfortunately, some of what I'd do is fantasy land without a change of ownership, or Joe standing up the family and stating he's going to take CHARGE. You tell me what is most likely to happen.

1] I'd really like to sign Castro for 2yrs at $16M. He's really good, not great, has had some ups and downs, but has been a major contributor. OK. So maybe 2yrs and $18M. That's a good deal for a regular who doesn't have a single position. Bader probably is looking for a bigger deal. Despite a solid season so far, is there a market that gives him a starting job somewhere? Maybe there is. But I'd keep him, if possible, and offer him a 2yr $20M deal. It's a big payday for both, but isn't too much on the trade market if younger prospects begin to take charge in 2026.

2] I'm a fan of Paddack and what he's overcome to be a solid starter for the Twins here in 2025. But unless he falls apart suddenly, he's going to get $10-13M in the offseason from someone looking for a 30yo SP with experience. You HAVE to trust in SWR, Matthews, Festa, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, etc, eventually. I'm NOT saying trade Paddack for a couple of prospects right now. He could be a part of a good 2nd half, especially with Lopez still out until August. But I am saying I don't think I'd re-sign him because you NEED to run with the younger upside SP options on hand.

IF you can get something solid for him in return, and Matthews comes back fairly soon, and Festa and SWR keep developing, move him. Otherwise, let him help the 2025 season hopefully amount to something and let him go.

3] I've stated over and over again to let Lee play daily and he'll be OK. We're starting to see that now. The Keaschall we saw in 1 week of ball is probably an illusion. That doesn't mean he isn't a really good ballplayer with a variety of skills and talent. And at some point in July, he will be back. 

4] I object to topics concerning trading Larnach. He's a really solid bat and producer who is just reaching his ceiling the past 2 seasons. I don't like him as a top 5 bat, but I really like him as a 6th option or lower.  Until Rodriguez or Jenkins step forward, he's a quality bat in the lower 3rd with Wallner in the top 5. 

5] I agree with letting the kids play as much as possible. Though "kids" is debatable. In the rotation, you bet. In the lineup? I don't agree with pushing Culpepper to MLB. Not yet. He's a possible 2026 option. As Uber talented as E Rodriguez is, it's really tempting to say "go ahead kid, do your best". I just can't get on board with that until I see at least a month of production at AAA where he looks great. Honestly, Rodriguez is an enigma of super talent. That doesn't mean he has to be rushed. But DAMN, it would be exciting to see him health and raking and at least get a September promotion.

When things AREN'T WORKING you have to look at other options. You can build a roster and think you have a good one. But again, if things aren't working, you have to look at different options.

In 2023 the team got a jump start from talented prospects. Julien and Wallner were part of that. Wallner has been struggling from his IL return, but has looked better recently. Julien has looked really good in June and might be an option to help going forward. And he might deserve another shot.

But BIG picture, the Twins shouldn't be limited for sure. There's a lot of good arms and bats right on the precipous of contributing. But disappointment from what we're seeing right now with ridiculous inconsistent production, I still think this team is so close to being very good. 

To add to the anti-sell sentiment, the expiring contracts on the Twins aren’t the coveted players. It’s the ones that expire after 2026. A rebuild for this team is a longer term project. This team is too good to scorched earth rebuild

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

1] I'd really like to sign Castro for 2yrs at $16M. He's really good, not great, has had some ups and downs, but has been a major contributor. OK. So maybe 2yrs and $18M. That's a good deal for a regular who doesn't have a single position. Bader probably is looking for a bigger deal. Despite a solid season so far, is there a market that gives him a starting job somewhere? Maybe there is. But I'd keep him, if possible, and offer him a 2yr $20M deal. It's a big payday for both, but isn't too much on the trade market if younger prospects begin to take charge in 2026.

He's going to test the free agent market. That's a 100% stone cold lock at this point. What is the harm of trading him to a contender, getting him some playoff experience and bringing him back to the team if they really want him back?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's going to test the free agent market. That's a 100% stone cold lock at this point. What is the harm of trading him to a contender, getting him some playoff experience and bringing him back to the team if they really want him back?

To me it depends on Keaschal or Lewis If they’re imminent and actually healthy/productive like we’re used to seeing they’re in the lineup every day. At that point I’d rather DFA Bride and trade Castro for something (probably not a ton) than to DFA Clemens too. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's going to test the free agent market. That's a 100% stone cold lock at this point. What is the harm of trading him to a contender, getting him some playoff experience and bringing him back to the team if they really want him back?

I agree in this sense with both you and DocBauer - try to sign Castro and, if you can't, trade him. I like the idea of 2 years $16-17m, and I think it's as much or more than he could get as a FA in the offseason. I get testing FA if he thinks he can get more but let's make a competitive offer to keep him. We can re-sing him in the offseason but that's a real crapshoot since it only takes one overpaying team to stretch the market.

This offseason is a little harder to predict than past years. The CBA expires after the 2026 season There may be a salary cap/harsher luxury tax/strike coming due to declining local TV revenues. I think we may underestimate how Diamond Sports overpaying for regional TV rights kept teams like the Twins afloat. Middle class players like Castro may be more receptive to certainty at a good number rather than take their chances for a great number with the risk of not getting that good number per year or good number of years. There may be some guys looking for 3 years at $8-10m plus this offseason who can't find jobs at that number and wind up on one year, $5-6m deals. . 

To me the big point is this - Make a decision on the expiring contract vets over the next 30 days. My view is try to keep Castro, Coulombe, Paddack, and Bader and trade the rest. To me, that means at least trying to trade France, Stewart, Vasquez, Topa, and Clemens.  If Castro, Paddack, Coloumbe and Bader resist those overtures, test the trade market for them as well. Having said that, don't just trade them for a bucket of balls. This team isn't good enough to keep together just for a hoped for playoff run so at least see what these expiring assets are worth.  

[FlyingFinn]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

As Uber talented as E Rodriguez is

What do you think our OF looks like a year from now? I'm thinking if Jenkins stays healthy, he will be there. Possibly Rodriguez too, again if healthy. With Buxton, Larnach and Wallner, do you sell someone then (probably at a lower value for whoever you are selling on)? Do you sell over the winter on someone? Do you sell in July of this year? If the Twins are in the race at the end of July, it's easy. Don't sell now. If the Twins drop out of the race, then it could get interesting. Big decisions coming.

[DocBauer]

21 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

What do you think our OF looks like a year from now? I'm thinking if Jenkins stays healthy, he will be there. Possibly Rodriguez too, again if healthy. With Buxton, Larnach and Wallner, do you sell someone then (probably at a lower value for whoever you are selling on)? Do you sell over the winter on someone? Do you sell in July of this year? If the Twins are in the race at the end of July, it's easy. Don't sell now. If the Twins drop out of the race, then it could get interesting. Big decisions coming.

That's a great question. What do I want? Or what do I see? For the latter, it's really hard to say until/unless Rodriguez and Jenkins are healthy the next 2+ months and provide quality production and hope. If they do that, an arguement could be made for Jenkins to be at AAA to begin next year, or an early promotion. And you could make an arguement that Rodriguez might be ready, or ready enough, to consider moving Larnach in a deal. BUT, I think there's room for all 3 of Wallner, Rodriguez, and Larnach between OF/DH.

It would be fun to have Bader back as a 4th OF, but I'm betting someone is going to offer him more than the Twins can afford and make him their starting CF. But he would be a really nice "keep" for around the same salary. And while I also like Castro and would live to re-sign him...especially since so many utility options seem about a 1/2 year or so away...but again, I'm betting ownership won't spend the $ to keep him.

So Wallner, Buxton, and probably Larnach as potential given. Rodriguez is in the "oh so close" category if he finishes 2025 healthy and strong. Still need a RH OF AGAIN with Bader probably gone. Your guess there is as good as mine, unless they think Martin is ready for the job. Fedko, Gonzalez, Rosario, and Olivar all could debut in 2026, but not begin the season.

Unfortunately, we're probably looking for some help in the OF yet again. But it could be the last year for a while in which we have to do so.

[stringer bell]

On 6/29/2025 at 5:24 PM, FlyingFinn said:

What do you think our OF looks like a year from now? I'm thinking if Jenkins stays healthy, he will be there. Possibly Rodriguez too, again if healthy. With Buxton, Larnach and Wallner, do you sell someone then (probably at a lower value for whoever you are selling on)? Do you sell over the winter on someone? Do you sell in July of this year? If the Twins are in the race at the end of July, it's easy. Don't sell now. If the Twins drop out of the race, then it could get interesting. Big decisions coming.

The injuries suffered by top prospects Rodriguez and Jenkins make this a tough call. Both players' progress has been slowed and it harder (at least for the fans) to know when and if they will be ready to step in. I'd love to see both guys come in and be complete ballplayers better than the incumbents, but it is pretty hard to believe that will happen. It would then be easier to sell on either or both Larnach and Wallner. 

Larnach has put together a solid half season while Wallner has had stretches in each of the last two years where he has hit at an All-Star level, but he hasn't put that together long enough not to ignore the dry spells. It would be nice to have speedier, more athletic corner OFs who could be assets on the base paths.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

6-4 in their last 10, down 2 at the break. I guess I'm a reluctant buyer...

[RpR]

How did the Twins miss this:

https://www.si.com/onsi/minor-league-baseball/news/former-seattle-mariners-first-baseman-rowdy-tellez-promoted-to-texas-rangers-major-league-roster

Former Seattle Mariners 1B, Who Signed MiLB Deal with Rangers, Coming Back to Majors

According to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, former Seattle Mariners first baseman Rowdy Tellez is being promoted to the big league club with the Texas Rangers..... After being designated for assignment by the M's in July, Tellez signed a minor league deal in Texas.....The 30-year-old got 15 minor league at-bats, going 5-for-15 with two home runs and four RBIs.....He hit .208 for the Mariners with 11 homers....

Those are Wallner numbers and some want him at First Base; missed another one.☹️

[knothole61]

On 6/24/2025 at 10:22 AM, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think Falvey will pick either one of your paths laid out and stay the course. 

They’ll make trades if they have an immediate replacement in AAA. So to break it down…

Castro - Should be traded if he isn’t signing another contract here. Keaschall or Martin is ready to take over at 2B or LF. 

Bader - We don’t have anyone who can fill in at CF and play even mediocre defense. He should stay and potentially discuss an extension. 

Coloumbe - 95% chance he’s traded. Left handed and breathing is valuable and his contract fits anyone’s budget. Funderburk or Prielipp takes over. 

Paddack - I would trade if the opportunity presents itself. 

Maybe Miranda and Julien are change of scenery trade candidates in July. But my guess is that’s an offseason discussion. 

Van, I dig most of this but I'd keep Coloumbe--left-handed and breathing! Frankly, I'm very Funderburk averse!

[stringer bell]

This club has Pablo, Ryan, Ober starting, three horses in the bullpen and Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton playing two of the three most critical defensive positions, all at least through 2026. It's hard for me to say "tear it down" especially with Buxton saying he is a "Twin for life".

That said, the position players for the fourth consecutive year, haven't put up or prevented enough runs to support the pitching staff. The position player group is slow with moderate power and not especially gifted on defense. I think some changes need to be made with who lines up behind the pitcher. 

[Vanimal46]

19 hours ago, knothole61 said:

Van, I dig most of this but I'd keep Coloumbe--left-handed and breathing! Frankly, I'm very Funderburk averse!

I think I would too but it left handed and breathing brings all of the attention of GMs…

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

On 7/14/2025 at 2:41 PM, VivaBomboRivera! said:

6-4 in their last 10, down 2 at the break. I guess I'm a reluctant buyer...

After last night's fiasco, it may be time to reconsider this position...