Tyler Mahle Returns to Target Field, Finally Pitching Like the Ace the Twins Once Bet On

[Matthew Taylor]

When the Minnesota Twins acquired Tyler Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds at the 2022 trade deadline, it was a bold move that showed they were serious about contending. For years, fans had been clamoring for the front office to invest in a frontline starting pitcher. Mahle, just 27 years old and under team control through 2023, looked like a smart and calculated gamble. The Twins paid a significant price, sending Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Cincinnati.

Unfortunately, the move quickly turned into a nightmare for Minnesota.

Mahle made only four starts before shoulder issues ended his 2022 season. He returned briefly in 2023 but lasted just five starts before needing Tommy John surgery. In total, he threw 42 innings with a 3.64 ERA as a Twin. The acquisition, which once looked like the missing piece for a playoff run, fizzled out almost immediately.

While recovering from surgery, Mahle signed a two-year deal with the Texas Rangers. He missed most of 2024 as he worked back from Tommy John and battled more shoulder tightness. But in 2025, things have finally come together for him.

Mahle enters Tuesday’s game at Target Field with a 2.02 ERA, which ranks fifth in the American League. His 1.6 fWAR is ninth among AL pitchers. For the first time in years, he is fully healthy and showing why the Twins pursued him in the first place.

He’s getting it done with a different approach. His four-seam fastball averages just 92 miles per hour, down from his 93+ MPH pre-surgery, but it has been an extremely effective pitch. Opposing hitters are batting only .173 against it, and it is generating a 25 percent whiff rate. His split-finger, which he throws nearly 30 percent of the time, is giving hitters even more trouble. The biggest change for Mahle, though, is that through 71 and one-third innings, he has allowed just three home runs. His 44 percent ground ball rate helps him avoid damage, and he is doing an excellent job limiting quality contact. Compare those numbers to 2022 when Mahle had a 35 percent ground ball rate and allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings. Mahle has adapted his game post-surgery and the numbers speak for themselves.

For Twins fans, seeing Mahle back in Minnesota and dominating might stir up some tough emotions.

There was plenty of criticism for the front office after the trade fell apart. The Twins finally pushed in their chips for a frontline starter, and it felt like they picked the wrong guy. But in reality, they identified the right traits. Mahle has always had the ability to be a top-tier starter. Injuries are what derailed his time in Minnesota, not poor scouting or bad decision-making.

No team can avoid pitcher injuries. That is the gamble every front office has to make. In Mahle’s case, the timing just didn’t work out. The front office wasn’t wrong. They were just early.

Now, Mahle will take the mound against his former team for the first time since the trade. And the Twins will have their hands full. He is pitching like one of the best starters in the league and is finally healthy enough to prove it.

What do you think? Was the Mahle trade a smart risk that simply didn’t pan out? Or was it a mistake from the start? How are you feeling about facing him in Tuesday’s series opener? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Patzky]

I wish him all the best as he works his way back.. starting next week.

[Doctor Gast]

I applaud FO for taking the initiative to improve the Twins in the '22 trade deadline. But wished they had looked at the underlying condition of Mahle's arm, not only his stats. IMO, Mahle has the potential, but I hope he doesn't find it against us.

[Blyleven2011]

We were all exited to a point on acquiring mahle but Twins fans were leary of the trade because of injury concerns and upset with falvey and team by not doing there due diligence on his medical records , he had shoulder problems before the trade , he suffered more after the trade and it took them into 2023 to find out he needed Tommy John surgery  ...

The front office really had no business believing the twins were serious contenders in 2022 and making the blundering  trades , they were competitive but not contenders ...

The twins were a more serious contending team in 2023 and the front office did nothing at the deadline to improve the team , they have been gun shy at doing deadline deals since 2022 to fill the needed  holes ...

After a disastrous 2024 season the front office continues to believe the twins are serious contenders and living on hope that the same players can win the division , the goal is to win the division with a solid competitive team , not to limp in as a wild card and hope anything can happen  ...

We will know by end of June what this team will be capable of accomplishing , the offense needs to click and show the consistency  of their hitting skills , they can't keep making every opponents pitcher look like Cy Young ...

Wish mahle the best , just not against the twins tonight

 

[Parfigliano]

Rough him up so his season ERA begins with a 3 at the end of his start.  He can go back to being a Cy Young candidate until TC plays at TX in September.

[Patzky]

Mahle was but an appetizer for DeSclafani.. 😁

[jmlease1]

I was fine with the trade at the time, and it just didn't work out. The thought process made a lot of sense, especially because our younger pitchers in the minors simply weren't ready yet and we needed to buy some additional time to try and graduate more guys internally. His arm just ended up being unable to hold up during the time when the Twins would have been expected to have him. Heck, he was actually pretty good for us in 2023 before he went down for good.

While the Twins gave up a fairly good haul in assets at the time, I don't know that it's hurt us all that much: Steer had one good season, and we were able to replace his production just fine that year. He was just ok last season and not good this year...and he's been the best of the prospects we gave up. CES (who I admittedly thought would be the best of the trio) has done nothing to date in MLB: struggles to stay healthy, and has been exposed as a hitter since showing a little promise as a rookie, and doesn't add any defensive value. Maybe he's figured something out with this recent spate of homers...or maybe he just ran into a couple, because he's been awful before that. Hajjar looks like he's out of baseball?

The Mahle trade was a loss, because he got hurt. But it wasn't because he was bad and couldn't pitch. Hope he has a rotten day against us, but I wish that for every pitcher who we play.

[Matthew Taylor]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I was fine with the trade at the time, and it just didn't work out. The thought process made a lot of sense, especially because our younger pitchers in the minors simply weren't ready yet and we needed to buy some additional time to try and graduate more guys internally. His arm just ended up being unable to hold up during the time when the Twins would have been expected to have him. Heck, he was actually pretty good for us in 2023 before he went down for good.

While the Twins gave up a fairly good haul in assets at the time, I don't know that it's hurt us all that much: Steer had one good season, and we were able to replace his production just fine that year. He was just ok last season and not good this year...and he's been the best of the prospects we gave up. CES (who I admittedly thought would be the best of the trio) has done nothing to date in MLB: struggles to stay healthy, and has been exposed as a hitter since showing a little promise as a rookie, and doesn't add any defensive value. Maybe he's figured something out with this recent spate of homers...or maybe he just ran into a couple, because he's been awful before that. Hajjar looks like he's out of baseball?

The Mahle trade was a loss, because he got hurt. But it wasn't because he was bad and couldn't pitch. Hope he has a rotten day against us, but I wish that for every pitcher who we play.

Well said!

[Western SD Fan]

Absolutely well said.  The only thing I would like to add to this it is opining whether this trade as made the FO a little gun shy when it comes to making future deadline deal trades that we have been screaming for the past two years and likely will with the upcoming deadline.

[Trov]

Every MLB pitcher will miss full seasons due to injuries these days.  You just need to hope they do not miss them while you are paying them big and that you can get the best out of them. 

[LewFordLives]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I was fine with the trade at the time, and it just didn't work out.

Yeah, I don't lose sleep over this one. In the pantheon of bad Minnesota sports trades, this is nowhere near making the list. It wasn't even close to the worst deadline trade the Twins made that year. Cade Povich and Yennier Cano to the Orioles for Jorge Lopez.........oofda!

[NotAboutWinning]

I always wondered why they have Paddack a rehab deal, but not Mahle?

[William Malone]

Good trade that just didn't work out. And it doesn't look like they gave up too much. Steer had a great rookie year in 2023, but he wasn't great last year and has been even worse so far this year. And CES has never really hit at all in the bigs. And somebody had to get traded. If Twins never moved those guys, it takes up 40-man spots that were eventually taken by Julien or Austin Martin or Miranda. Would've lost them "for nothing" if you clog up the roster and don't have room for them. Those guys have their flaws too. But that's all part of the "no prospect guarantees anything" deal.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

I always wondered why they have Paddack a rehab deal, but not Mahle?

I'm guessing they had a conversation about it, but the dollars might not have lined up; it's one thing to give  Paddack $2.5M to rehab and $7.5M for a healthy season and another to go $5.5M and $16.5M, which is what Texas gave him. It's working out just fine for Texas, but that $16.5M was a fairly big risk for a pitcher with shoulder issues, which are often worse than elbow problems to come back from. I'm betting the total cost was looked at as too much risk. I think that's fair?

Couldn't have worked out better for Mahle: he's having one of his best seasons as a pro going into free agency at 31. If he stays healthy, he'll be in line for a big contract (3-4 years at $20M AAV? Maybe more?)

[CharlieDee]

The Twins gave him millions and got almost nothing in return....I hope he has the worst start of his career tonight.

[ziggy]

21 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

I always wondered why they have Paddack a rehab deal, but not Mahle?

Ignoring his month on IR prior to the trade and not signing him to a rehab deal is the only mistakes the Twins made with Mahle. But at the price tag Texas gave him, I would not have signed him either.