Twins 6, Orioles 3: Nine. Times.

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober - 4 2/3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR (102 pitches; 57 strikes)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (4), Christian Vázquez (1)
Top 3 WPA: Vázquez .322, Trevor Larnach .164, Griffin Jax .135
Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs):

It doesn't exactly feel restful, when they come this way, but the Twins got two days off in a row before taking the field Wednesday. That's the good news. The tougher news is, they have to play twice, at the front end of a stretch in which they play three consecutive series without a day off. That means nine games in eight days, which will require some roster maneuvering and some heroic pitching performances. Tougher still, the first two pitchers tasked with delivering those innings-eating outings are Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, each of whom just faced the Orioles last week in Minnesota. As Cody Christie documented here earlier today, that poses an especially thorny challenge for a starting pitcher.

Early on, though, Ober was up to it and then some. He largely kept Baltimore batters off-balance over the first two frames, aided by a self-sacrificing, diving catch by Harrison Bader in the first on a foul ball that took him hard into the sidewall in foul territory. Ober cleverly mixed his stuff, as he always does, with some special wrinkles designed to confound Orioles hitters hunting familiar sequences. For instance, he started Ramón Laureano with three straight changeups to lead off the bottom of the third, then showed him one high heater and went back to the change for an easy groundout. Four changeups in five pitches to a right-handed batter is not the typical approach for Ober; it's emblematic of the adjustments he made to frustrate anyone sitting on a particular pitch they saw too often last week at Target Field.

Immediately thereafter, though, he got himself into trouble. Against No. 9 hitter Ramón Urías (who wasn't seeing him for a second time in a short window; he was on the IL when the O's were in Minneapolis last week), Ober went back to trying to mix his fastball with the changeup, but his command of the heater faltered. On a 3-2 pitch, he missed low and away, committing the cardinal sin of issuing a bases-empty walk as the Orioles flipped over the lineup card. 

Jackson Holliday couldn't make him pay, but Ryan Mountcastle came up with Urías on first and two outs. He'd notched a sacrifice fly and a ringing fifth-inning double against Ober last week, the latter creating a big jame the big righty had to work out of. That double came on a slider, and when Ober fell behind 3-1 and tried to sneak another slider in the zone by him, Mountcastle did it again. Urías, running on contact with two outs, was always going to try to score, but the pace of the ball and the skill of Bader (pursuing it into the corner) made the success of that endeavor far from assured. Sadly, the ball caught a corner and dropped against the wall, whereas Bader had been anticipating a hard bounce off the barrier. By the time he reversed his deceleration and chased it all the way to its resting place, there wasn't quite time for even the well-executed relay to Carlos Correa and Christian Vázquez. That made it 1-0 Orioles. 

It also brought up Gunnar Henderson, the hottest hitter in the Orioles' lineup, after he'd smashed a ground ball at 106 mph in his first at-bat. Ober worked a 2-2 count on him, but (perhaps getting too cute) tried a curveball to finish the inning. It wasn't a true hanger, but Henderson was ready for it, and smashed it well over the right-field wall. Suddenly, the Twins were in a 3-0 hole.

Happily, though, it didn't last even a half-inning. Brooks Lee took the first pitch of the fourth over the wall in center, just off the skyward-reaching glove of Cedric Mullins. A well-placed dribbler got Correa aboard, and Willi Castro drew a walk. Then, however, Royce Lewis struck out and Bader flied out to left. It could have been a wasted rally, and the game probably takes a very different shape from there if it had been. Instead, the most unlikely hero of this long winning streak emerged. Vázquez, also getting a meaty curveball, launched it out to left-center field for a lead the team would not relinquish.

 

Ober didn't even make it through five innings, which is unfortunate, under these circumstances. Other than that bad wobble in the third, though, he held Baltimore at bay. Danny Coulombe got him out of a jam in the fifth, and the team's deep bullpen followed its familiar formula thereafter. Some shaky defense by Lee at second and Correa at short threatened to result in another blown lead with Griffin Jax on the mound, but Jax gutted his way through and kept the 4-3 edge. Two insurance runs (the direct result of a Trevor Larnach double against a lefty, in a showdown the Orioles created on purpose by pitching around Byron Buxton) made the bottom of the ninth low-stress for Jhoan Duran.

 

Notes
In addition to Bader's great catch (one which briefly looked like it would knock him out of the game; he hobbled around a while and looks like he'll sport a bruise on his right knee after his collision with the wall), Buxton made a fine diving play later in the game to rob what would have been a game-tying single. Those two continue to be a sparkling defensive duo, and the Twins' fly ball-oriented pitching staff really positions them to have an outsized impact.

 

Ty France left mid-game after fouling a ball off his left instep. The initial diagnosis is a foot contusion. We'll see if he can get back into the lineup for Game 2.

Kody Funderburk is the 27th man for the double-dip. Expect him to pitch in this second contest.

What’s Next: The turnaround is so tight that Game 2 might be in progress by the time you read this. Simeon Woods Richardson takes the ball and will try to stretch the streak to double digits.

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[TheLeviathan]

Ober wasn't sharp and that could cause us some bullpen issues in game 2.  Let's hope SWR can come out and give us a good start.

Nice to see this team keep getting contributions up and down the lineup.

[Linus]

Interesting that at the end of the game substitutions were made to remove Lewis for defensive purposes. Buck and Bader save runs with their gloves. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

 

Interesting that at the end of the game substitutions were made to remove Lewis for defensive purposes. Buck and Bader save runs with their gloves. 

We've seen them do that anyway, but I did wonder if that was a way to save him a few breaths and set him up to be able to play Game 2—only then, of course, he's not in the lineup for it. Go figure.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Interesting that at the end of the game substitutions were made to remove Lewis for defensive purposes. Buck and Bader save runs with their gloves. 

I know there were concerns when Bader signed about how much a good outfielder can impact games, but I think we're starting to see the limitations of defensive metrics.

We run a flyball pitching staff (historically, I haven't looked at the data this year), in a park with some room in the OF, and we were playing plodding dudes out there the last few years.

The night and day difference with Bader and Buxton out there is evident to my eye test.  They're winning significantly at the margin for us.

[NYCTK]

 

I know there were concerns when Bader signed about how much a good outfielder can impact games, but I think we're starting to see the limitations of defensive metrics.

We run a flyball pitching staff (historically, I haven't looked at the data this year), in a park with some room in the OF, and we were playing plodding dudes out there the last few years.

The night and day difference with Bader and Buxton out there is evident to my eye test.  They're winning significantly at the margin for us.

Who's this "we" you're talking about? You got a mouse in your pocket? 😀

 

[S Bart]

Cody Clemens at first base still makes me nervous. 

[jmlease1]

Oof, a short start is not what we needed from Ober, especially with SWR the next man up. But maybe that'll be an opportunity for someone to step up.

Happy to see another win. Hope the Twins can keep beating up on Balto while it's down. Think we've been disappointed in our team's start this season? Talk to O's fans to see really disappointment.

Nice to Larnach doing the job. He'll lose PT when Wallner comes back, but when he's playing this well it makes it easier to wait until Wallner is 100%, be smart about Bader's PT and add options at the DH. He's always had talent with the bat, but needed to make some big adjustments once MLB pitchers stopped throwing him fastballs. He's doing a good job putting together competitive ABs.

Appreciate the HR from Vazquez, from whom any offense is a bonus these days.

[S Bart]

Buxton is 2nd in MLB strikeouts. Doesn't that seem a bit high for him, or has he always been at that level?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Who's this "we" you're talking about? You got a mouse in your pocket? 😀

 

Maybe, but I've always been a skeptic of the metrics on defensive runs saved and other measures.  I don't think we've found a way to quantify good defense yet, at least not the scope of it.

[NYCTK]

 

Maybe, but I've always been a skeptic of the metrics on defensive runs saved and other measures.  I don't think we've found a way to quantify good defense yet, at least not the scope of it.

I think that's fair. I prefer to think of defenders in buckets instead of this desire to quantify it. 

But like you said, with a flyball heavy pitching staff it was incredibly obvious that a defensive upgrade in the OF would be extremely beneficial. I just hope the Twins fans remember this when Bader returns to being a 650 OPS guy. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

 

Buxton is 2nd in MLB strikeouts. Doesn't that seem a bit high for him, or has he always been at that level?

If he ever stayed healthy enough to play as much as he's played so far this year, he'd have finished similarly high in that regard in other seasons. He's struck out in roughly 30% of his PAs since the start of 2022.

[Parfigliano]

 

Buxton is 2nd in MLB strikeouts. Doesn't that seem a bit high for him, or has he always been at that level?

2nd in league no.  Does he K alot yes 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think that's fair. I prefer to think of defenders in buckets instead of this desire to quantify it. 

But like you said, with a flyball heavy pitching staff it was incredibly obvious that a defensive upgrade in the OF would be extremely beneficial. I just hope the Twins fans remember this when Bader returns to being a 650 OPS guy. 

For sure, we shouldn't expect this with the bat, but I won't complain if we get lucky and it continues either!

[Doctor Gast]

Ober seemed to have control problems early. I was busy today so I tuned in late & the Twins were behind 3-0 yet because of the chemistry of the team now, I felt the Twins were going to win & they did (Vazquez's HR was hugh). Not that long ago if the Twins were up 3, I had doubts they would hold on to win. Chemistry is everything.

[bean5302]

Buxton could make the All Star game via vote if he stays healthy this year. Top 6 outfielders in each league get the nod, Buxton is #8 in fWAR right now, #4 in the AL.

Here are the standings atm for the AL outfielders. Obviously major changes can still happen due to injury or performance since voting won't even close for round 1 for another month.
1. Judge NYY 3.9 WAR, 100% lock.
2. Abreu BOS 1.7 WAR
3. Kwan CLE 1.7 WAR
4. Buxton MIN 1.6 WAR
5. McKinstry DET 1.3 WAR
6. Rodriguez SEA 1.3 WAR
7. Meyers HOU, 1.2 WAR
8. Arozarena SEA, 1.1 WAR
9. Langford TEX, 1.1 WAR
10. Springer TOR, 1.1

[Danchat]

This offense went from ice-cold to super clutch within two weeks... there were points in these two games where things looked grim and the hitters powered through and made the comebacks. This looks like a different team... well, the pitching hasn't changed that much but now the margin for error isn't razor thin so it seems like they're better.

[NYCTK]

 

Buxton could make the All Star game via vote if he stays healthy this year. Top 6 outfielders in each league get the nod, Buxton is #8 in fWAR right now, #4 in the AL.

Here are the standings atm for the AL outfielders. Obviously major changes can still happen due to injury or performance since voting won't even close for round 1 for another month.
1. Judge NYY 3.9 WAR, 100% lock.
2. Abreu BOS 1.7 WAR
3. Kwan CLE 1.7 WAR
4. Buxton MIN 1.6 WAR
5. McKinstry DET 1.3 WAR
6. Rodriguez SEA 1.3 WAR
7. Meyers HOU, 1.2 WAR
8. Arozarena SEA, 1.1 WAR
9. Langford TEX, 1.1 WAR
10. Springer TOR, 1.1

Don't look past some non qualified players like beloved comeback player Javy Baez or sudden star Trent Grisham. 

[S Bart]

 

2nd in league no.  Does he K alot yes 

MLB Stats for both leagues - as of this evening...just checked...yes, 2nd (I am not saying he is a bad hitter,,he,just seems either to strikeout or hit the ball)

Togle of Colorado - 61

Buxton  of Mn - 56

2 people tied at 55

2025 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com

[Parfigliano]

 

This offense went from ice-cold to super clutch within two weeks... there were points in these two games where things looked grim and the hitters powered through and made the comebacks. This looks like a different team... well, the pitching hasn't changed that much but now the margin for error isn't razor thin so it seems like they're better.

They are like night and day when compared to what I saw at TC against DET and NYM

[JDubs]

Was at this game for my first ever time at Camden, and it was great to see that even though it was an incredibly sparse crowd, it had to be at least half Twins fans. Great pair of games on a chilly, soggy day.

[DJL44]

 

Cody Clemens at first base still makes me nervous. 

Ty France is replaceable defensively.