Bailey Ober’s “Cat-and-Mouse Game” with the Baltimore Orioles

Bailey Ober will once again toe the rubber against the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday, marking the second straight start against the same opponent in a single week—a relatively rare occurrence, given the balanced schedules teams play and the way they prefer to structure their starting rotations in the modern game. After a solid five-inning outing on May 8 in which he allowed two runs (one earned) on eight hits with six strikeouts and one walk, Ober is tasked with refreshing his approach and avoiding predictability.

Unique Challenges of Consecutive Starts
Pitchers thrive on deception, and within any one start, it's relatively easy to maintain that advantage. However, facing the same lineup twice in a row removes much of that novelty: hitters have fresh video, recent pitch-tracking data, and in-game memory of sequencing tendencies. Ober must be wary of telegraphing his changeup after working it heavily in his last outing or relying on the same fastball locations he exploited in his previous start. So, what extra stuff goes into facing a team for a second straight start?

“You can see what you threw, go back and watch how you got guys out—what worked and what didn’t work—and try to come up with something new, but most of the time, it’s gonna be sticking to the same type of plan, maybe with some new wrinkles,” said Ober. “For the most part, it’s pitching. There’s how you start guys, how you end guys, and then in the middle, it’s just on the fly. The middle counts, you’re just kind of seeing what you’re seeing within the at-bat, and go with that.”

There is also a potential for hitters to react differently to pitches that they have seen recently. In MLB’s playoffs, this tends to become a factor for high-leverage bullpen arms who are used multiple times in the same series. Batters could pick up on patterns, but some of those challenges might be mental for the pitcher. 

“I feel like I’ve had a few of these types of starts over the last couple of years,” Ober said. “I had back-to-back starts against Baltimore actually, in 2023, and both starts went well. Pretty much, just stick to your game plan, and if you see something mid-at-bat that you might not think was open [or] that wasn’t on the report, just go with your gut and try to execute a pitch. That’s kind of how it is. It’s usually just trusting yourself, trusting your catchers, trusting your eyes.”

Revisiting 2023’s Back-to-Back Success
Ober last tackled the Orioles in consecutive starts during the 2023 season and thrived.

• July 1, 2023, at Camden Yards: Ober fired seven shutout innings, surrendering just two hits and fanning eight while walking none.
• July 7, 2023, at Target Field: He followed with six innings of one-run ball, allowing four hits, striking out five, and issuing three walks.

Across those two outings, he logged 13 innings, yielded six total hits, walked three, struck out 13, and surrendered a lone earned run. This outstanding line underscores his ability to adjust and dominate a lineup on a quick turnaround. The big shift in strikeout and walk numbers from the first start to the second, though, underscores some of the hurdles a pitcher has to clear to succeed in consecutive showdowns with a team.

Breakdown of His Last Orioles Outing
On May 8, Ober’s 91-pitch effort featured 60 strikes, a 66% strike rate, and 14 swinging strikes. Although he scattered eight hits and allowed two runs, he escaped multiple jams by stranding runners at second and third in both the second and third innings. That resilience under pressure will be critical if Baltimore jumps on early counts in his next turn.

Ober must resist falling into any “comfort sequence” he used effectively last start. For instance, if he led with four-seam fastballs to right-handers before executing inside sliders, he’ll need to flip that script, maybe opening with another offspeed offering to get ahead in the count. By deploying a “false first-pitch curveball” (starting counts with a breaking ball), Ober could disrupt Orioles hitters who have dialed in on his fastball tendencies. Here's how Ober attacked Baltimore in his last start. 

The Twins may also have a secret weapon in hitting coach Matt Borgschulte, whom they hired away from Baltimore this winter. Ober was asked if the Twins coach could be a resource.

“A little bit, yeah—mainly on guys that he has seen in the minor leagues that I haven’t thrown against. I’ve thrown against the guys that’ve been mainstays in the lineup for a few years now, so I have a good history with them, and they obviously know what I’m gonna do. So it’s just a cat-and-mouse game, back and forth, and who’s gonna give in? That’s the battle.”

If he replicates even a fraction of his 2023 back-to-back dominance, he could handcuff Baltimore’s hitters again. But the true test lies in Ober’s ability to innovate on the fly, turning the challenge of familiarity into a strategic advantage for the Twins this week.

Can Ober win this "cat-and-mouse game" with Baltimore? Leave a comment and start the discussion.