Bailey Ober’s “Cat-and-Mouse Game” with the Baltimore Orioles

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan--Imagn Images

Bailey Ober will once again toe the rubber against the Baltimore Orioles later this week, marking the second straight start against the same opponent in a single week, a rarity in today’s five-man rotations. After a solid five-inning outing on May 8 in which he allowed two runs (one earned) on eight hits with six strikeouts and one walk, Ober is tasked with refreshing his approach and avoiding predictability.

Unique Challenges of Consecutive Starts
Pitchers thrive on deception, and one-off starts afford a degree of surprise. However, facing the same lineup two starts in a week removes much of that novelty: hitters have fresh video, recent pitch-tracking data, and in-game memory of sequencing tendencies. Ober must be wary of telegraphing his changeup after working it heavily in his last outing or relying on the same fastball locations he exploited in his previous start. So, what extra stuff goes into facing a team for a second straight start?

“You can see what you threw, go back and watch how you got guys out—what worked and what didn’t work—and try to come up with something new, but most of the time, it’s gonna be sticking to the same type of plan, maybe with some new wrinkles,” said Ober. “For the most part, it’s pitching. There’s how you start guys, how you end guys, and then in the middle, it’s just on the fly. The middle counts, you’re just kind of seeing what you’re seeing within the at-bat, and go with that.”

There is also a potential for hitters to react differently to pitches that they have seen recently. In MLB’s playoffs, this tends to become a factor for high-leverage bullpen arms that are used multiple times in the same series. Batters could pick up on patterns, but some of those challenges might be mental for the pitcher. 

“I feel like I’ve had a few of these types of starts over the last couple of years,” Ober said. “I had back-to-back starts against Baltimore actually, in 2023, and both starts went well. Pretty much, just stick to your game plan, and if you see something mid-at-bat that you might not think it was open that wasn’t on the report, just go with your gut and try to execute a pitch. That’s kind of how it is. It’s usually just trusting yourself, trusting your catchers, trusting your eyes.”

Revisiting 2023’s Back-to-Back Success
Ober last tackled the Orioles in consecutive starts during the 2023 season and thrived.

• July 1, 2023, at Camden Yards: Ober fired seven shutout innings, surrendering just two hits and fanning eight while walking none.
• July 7, 2023, at Target Field: He followed with six innings of one-run ball, allowing four hits, striking out five, and issuing three walks.
• Across those two outings, he logged 13 innings, yielded six total hits, walked three, struck out 13, and surrendered a lone earned run. This outstanding line underscores his ability to adjust and dominate a lineup on quick turnaround.

Breakdown of His Last Orioles Outing
On May 8, Ober’s 91-pitch effort featured 60 strikes, a 66% strike rate, and 14 swinging strikes. Although he scattered eight hits and allowed two runs, he escaped multiple jams by stranding runners at second and third in both the second and third innings. That resilience under pressure will be critical if Baltimore jumps on early counts in his next turn.

Ober must resist falling into any “comfort sequence” he used effectively last start. For instance, if he led with four-seam fastballs to right-handers before executing inside sliders, he’ll need to flip that script, maybe opening with another offspeed offering to get ahead in the count. By deploying a “false first-pitch curveball” (starting counts with a breaking ball), Ober could disrupt Orioles hitters who have dialed in on his fastball tendencies. Below shows how Ober attacked Baltimore in his last start. 

The Twins may also have a secret weapon in hitting coach Matt Borgschulte, who the Twins hired away from Baltimore this winter. Ober was asked if the Twins coach could be a resource. “A little bit, yeah—mainly on guys that he has seen in the minor leagues that I haven’t thrown against. I’ve thrown against the guys that’ve been mainstays in the lineup for a few years now, so I have a good history with them, and they obviously know what I’m gonna do. So it’s just a cat-and-mouse game, back and forth, and who’s gonna give in? That’s the battle.”

If he replicates even a fraction of his 2023 back-to-back dominance, he could handcuff Baltimore’s hitters again. But the true test lies in Ober’s ability to innovate on the fly, turning the challenge of familiarity into a strategic advantage for the Twins this week.

Can Ober win this "cat-and-mouse game" with Baltimore? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Linus]

Nice article. Timely for the upcoming series. 

[Doctor Gast]

 "If you see something mid-at-bat that you might not think was open [or] that wasn’t on the report, just go with your gut and try to execute a pitch. That’s kind of how it is. It’s usually just trusting yourself, trusting your catchers, trusting your eyes.”

Bingo, love his approach.

[bean5302]

The key to Ober staying successful is definitely leveraging everything he can from the mental side of things adding to his precise control. Control has always been a weapon in pitching because throwing strikes hitters can't punish can go a long way towards getting outs, and virtually every hitter in MLB has weak points in the zone. Ober's pitching more like a later career Zack Greinke out there, but how far can the velo drop before hitters simply get too decision time? That's the question. Greinke hit that wall as his velo dropped under 90mph. Ober's now at 90.8mph.

Hopefully, Ober can weave his way through Baltimore's potentially dangerous lineup in Maryland. A lineup where 4 guys have an expected OBA over 40 pts higher than they've put up so far. That lineup is due for some serious regression upwards.

[S Bart]

Cody Clemens playing first base makes me nervous!!!!!🥵