Week in Review: Breakthrough and Another Bad Break

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins did what they needed to with a soft pocket in their schedule, winning five of six to catalyze a journey back toward the .500 mark. Unfortunately, yet another crushing injury blow tempered the enthusiasm, leaving the team to forge ahead without its two most impressive hitters for the foreseeable future.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Twins won their series against the White Sox, as they needed to, but it was frankly not a stirring display. They narrowly avoided another blown lead on Tuesday, survived 13 stranded runners on Wednesday, and got shut out on Thursday. The optics were that a bad team outscored a worse team by a couple runs over three games, and Minnesota was still not showing signs of elevating from its teamwide funk.

Then the Angels came to town, and the vibe shifted. The Twins recorded their first series sweep since the beginning of last August, and they did so in much more convincing fashion, exerting their will over a lackluster Los Angeles club. Minnesota outscored the Angels 21-5, and while their play wasn't perfect, they avoided the instances of maddening self-sabotage that have so frequently halted their momentum this season.

The Twins have won three of their past four series and are suddenly playing decent ball. But they've got to show they can do it against credible competition, and that opportunity is coming up next. Let's unpack.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/21 through Sun, 4/27
***
Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 12-16)
Run Differential Last Week: +18 (Overall: -2)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 23 | MIN 4, CWS 2: Buxton Averts Disaster with Game-Saving Catch

• Ober: 6 IP, 1 ER

Game 24 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Homers from Buxton, Larnach Help Offset 13 LOB

• Bullpen: 5 IP, 0 R

Game 25 | CWS 3, MIN 0: Offense Puts Forth a Dud in Rain-Shortened Loss

• Offense: 0-9 RISP, 1 XBH

Game 26 | MIN 11, LAA 4: Breakthrough Showing Tempered by Keaschall Injury

• Buxton, Larnach: 2 HR, 7 RBI

Game 27 | MIN 5, LAA 1: Twins Secure Series Win Behind Strong SWR Start

• Woods Richardson: 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K

Game 28 | MIN 5, LAA 0: Ryan Shreds Halos in Sweep-Clinching Shutout

• Ryan: 7 IP, 0 R, 11 K

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NEWS & NOTES

After making a heck of an impression during his three-start April cameo, David Festa was optioned back to Triple-A on Thursday to facilitate the return of Pablo López, activated from the injured list to start Minnesota's series opener against Los Angeles on Friday. Over 13 innings with the Twins, Festa allowed only two earned runs (1.38 ERA) and struck out 15. He'll be back as soon as another opportunity arises.

López looked sharp in his return on Friday night, and the Twins enjoyed their biggest win of the year – some much-needed good news that unfortunately got overshadowed by some not-at-all-needed bad news: Luke Keaschall suffered a broken forearm after being hit by a Kyle Hendricks fastball. The run of inconceivable injury interference for Minnesota's top prospects proceeds unabated. Although it was a non-displaced fracture, it'll take time to heal; expect Keaschall to be sidelined for at least a couple of months. 

With José Miranda already demoted, and Willi Castro (finally) placed on the injured list earlier in the week, the Twins find themselves direly thin on infield depth. This pushed them to swing a trade with the Phillies for Kody Clemens, who joined the team on Saturday. Clemens, much like Jonah Bride earlier in the month, is a fringe big-leaguer who came aboard after being designated for assignment by his previous club. The lefty swinger, who has a .611 career OPS in the majors but slugged .471 in the minors, plays primarily first base and is capable of mixing in at third, second and left.

The Twins find their roster rife with these kinds of marginal MLB talents, as Clemens and Bride are also joined by Mickey Gasper, recalled to take Castro's vacated spot. It's not a great situation for a team trying to rattle off victories and hoist itself back into relevance. But a crucial reinforcement is on the way.

Royce Lewis kicked off a rehab stint in St. Paul on Friday night, starting at third base and going 1-for-3 with a double. He played against Sunday, notching a pair of singles and coming just short of a grand slam on a sac fly. He looked good on his chances defensively. The Twins are surely inclined to take it slow with Lewis, but as with Brooks Lee and Keaschall before him, the front office may be compelled to accelerate his timeline slightly given the circumstances of the major-league roster.

 

In a couple of final roster notes: Michael Tonkin moved his rehab to Triple-A and Matt Canterino was released following his DFA. Diego Cartaya was outrighted from the 40-man roster amid an extremely slow start at Triple-A, making room on the 40-man for Clemens.

HIGHLIGHTS

Once again Byron Buxton was the star of the show for the Twins, impacting games with his legs, his glove and his bat. He opened the week by making one of the most thrilling and dramatic defensive plays of his career, sprinting into the gap and diving at the warning track to catch a would-be game-tying drive off the bat of Andrew Benintendi with two outs in the ninth inning. 

At the plate, Buxton hit two more homers and added five more runs scored to his team-leading total, now at 22. Since striking out four times in Kansas City on April 8th and then missing a couple days to attend a family funeral, Buxton is batting .286 and slugging .661 with five homers and four steals on four attempts, ranking fourth among AL players in fWAR. He's swinging at everything and striking out a ton but it doesn't seem to matter; Buck is locked in and looking like the best version of himself. He has started 25 of the team's 28 games in center field, with Sunday seemingly representing his first true "day off" of the season.

 

A refreshingly productive week for the Twins offense saw them bat .283 with 27 walks, 20 extra-base hits and 31 runs scored in six games. Other than Buxton, some other hitters contributed and showed signs of breaking free from early slumps:

• Trevor Larnach went 8-for-22 with three home runs and nine RBIs, embodying the run-producing profile that inspires Rocco Baldelli to consistently plant Larnach in the middle of the order. Larnach's OPS increased by 165 points during the home stand, from .548 to .713.
• Lee shook off a 2-for-19 start to pile up hits in these two series, notching eight in 21 at-bats to lift his average from .105 to .250. Lee drew two walks and did not strike out in six games. Only one of those hits went for extra bases (a double), so questions about his ability to drive and elevate the ball remain, but at least Lee is starting to find some grass.
• Edouard Julien had a relatively quiet week with the bat, notching two singles and a double in 21 trips, but what really caught my eye was the improved quality of ABs. The famously disciplined second baseman drew only three walks in 65 plate appearances coming into this last week, and was chasing out of the zone way more often than ever before. A little added aggressiveness is good, but being able to work counts and make pitchers sweat is key to unlocking his best form. Julien drew six walks last week, with four coming in Friday's lopsided win over the Angels.

As bad as this Twins team has generally looked, the formula for winning is actually very simple and achievable: score an average number of runs. When pushing across four or more, Minnesota is 12-3 this year. They were able to hit that threshold in five of their six games last week, albeit it against poor competition but also while leaving plenty of meat on the bone. I view it as promising. But nothing is going to come easy with arguably the team's two best hitters – Keaschall and Matt Wallner – sidelined indefinitely. 

On the pitching side, this was an extremely impressive string of games. Things finally did start to come a little easier for Griffin Jax, who rebounded admirably from a disastrous road trip while being used in noticeably lower leverage. All three of his appearances came in the seventh inning rather than the eighth or ninth, but Jax showed signs of getting on track by allowing no runs or walks and striking out seven. The luck-poor reliever continued to get BABIP'ed, with two of four balls in play turning into hits, but he overcame that by inducing an eye-popping 13 whiffs on 46 pitches. 

 

As Jax looks to reclaim his top spot in the bullpen hierarchy, Louis Varland is making a charge up the ranks, flashing flat-out filthy stuff in a full-time relief role. He did give up a solo homer, which continues to be a vulnerability, but outside of that Varland was squeaky clean in three innings of work, striking out four with no walks. His fastball, averaging 98 MPH, is one of the 10 hardest in the American League.

The starting rotation, with López back and looking healthy, is leading the charge for this team. Bailey Ober was stellar against the White Sox, tossing six innings of one-run ball and lowering his ERA to 2.42 since the season-opening clunker in St. Louis. Simeon Woods Richardson looked about as good as we've seen him on Saturday against the Halos, allowing one run over 5 ⅓ while striking out seven with no walks. Joe Ryan rebounded from a rough outing in Atlanta to flat-out eviscerate that same Angels team on Sunday, striking out 11 over seven shutout innings. 

 

A high-caliber rotation that brings quality day in and day out is an essential ingredient in churning out wins, as the Twins need to do. This starting unit looks very well equipped. But they can't do it alone.

LOWLIGHTS

The inefficiency of the Twins offense is infuriating to behold. Even in a week that would have to be described as their best of the season, the lineup was still was subject to constant letdowns in key situations, leaving a tremendous number of runs on the table. In six games and 47 offensive innings, the Twins stranded an extraordinary 52 runners on base, including 13 each on Wednesday and Saturday.

There is a level of credit due for so consistently populating the bases via hits and walks, but if you can't capitalize and convert, all the traffic doesn't do much good. That's been a recurring issue for this lineup dating back to last year. The quality of at-bats deteriorates and the ability to step up goes amiss when opposing pitchers are bearing down in scoring opportunities.

The most glaring perpetrator in these shortcomings remains Carlos Correa, who once again found himself coming up short for much of the week. He went 0-for-12 in the White Sox series and finished with five singles, a double and a walk in six games. On multiple occasions he came up with the bases loaded and less than two outs, only to end up watching strike three. When hitting with men on this year, Correa has nearly as many GIDPs (6) as hits (8), and seven of those hits have been singles.

In some respects Correa continues to be snakebit – occasional rockets finding gloves and some bad calls from umps, both of which we saw this week – but there's no excuse for a .578 OPS from a $37 million player. Correa, for his part, is not looking to make excuses.

When asked by reporters, following the Chicago series, if he's dealing with physical issues that are holding him back, Correa responded, "I'm dealing with my swing sucks right now." That definitely checks out. Despite good bat speed and a high contact propensity, Correa’s barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity are all below average, and his launch angle is the lowest of his career.

The end of the week did bring some genuinely positive movement on the Correa front, however. He turned on a few balls in the Angels series, displaying pull-side power that has been amiss, and notched three hits on Sunday, including a 113-MPH single that was the hardest-hit ball in the game.

A sign of things to come? We can hope. If the Twins are going to find a groove and dig their way out of this hole, they need some approximation of prime Carlos Correa at shortstop. And the same goes for Jhoan Durán at the back of the bullpen.

While he technically got the job done last week, securing his second save on Tuesday and closing out a four-run win on Saturday, Durán just isn't looking like the dominating force we used to know. The appearance against Chicago almost became another bullpen catastrophe, with Durán entering to protect a three-run lead against the worst team ever and putting the tying run on second before Buxton called game. Buck's highlight prevented a devastating early-season lowlight for Durán.

 

Although the right-hander only ended up allowing one run and one hit in the two innings, lowering his ERA to a deceptively impressive 1.59, he struck out only one of the nine batters he faced. His strikeout rate for the season is at 22%, down from 29% last year and 33% in 2023. Meanwhile the walk rate is way up to 13%. Troubling trends all around, and that's a bit ominous as the Twins head into a key series against an opponent that simply terrorized Durán and the Minnesota bullpen last season.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The impending return of Royce Lewis demands the attention of Twins fans everywhere, especially in the wake of Keaschall's deflating injury and news that Wallner is still "weeks away." While showing improvement, the offense still clearly needs an infusion of explosiveness and clutchness. We all know how Lewis can deliver on these fronts when healthy, and the early signs in St. Paul have been encouraging.

The Twins have signaled an intent to take it slow with Lewis's rehab, which seems plenty reasonable. They'd surely love to have him on hand for the next series in Cleveland but that's highly unlikely. Next weekend at Fenway is a possibility, but the following home stand (versus Baltimore and San Francisco) might be a more realistic target. Either way, we're almost there.

 

When Lewis returns, the Twins will need to make a decision on who goes from the bench to make room. Bride, Gasper or Clemens? There's an argument for Royce making any one of them redundant. Any action seen by these three in the coming games could be extra meaningful, though the availability of minor-league options for Gasper potentially puts him in the crosshairs. 

LOOKING AHEAD

If the Twins want to make a statement, they've got a prime opportunity in front of them. They have four games ahead in Cleveland against the defending AL Central champs, who took 10 of 13 matchups last year, and then it's off to Boston for a series at Fenway Park, where Minnesota's season essentially died in September. Can the Twins banish the memories of last year's second-half collapse, which these clubs played a big role in authoring? Or will this road trip, and step up in competition, simply remind us of who the Twins are?

An interesting subplot in Cleveland will be late-game dynamics with Durán, Jax, and Emmanuel Clase, who has himself been navigating early-season struggles and was recently demoted from the ninth inning. Things could get interesting in the final innings if these games are close.

MONDAY, APRIL 28: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Tanner Bibee
TUESDAY, APRIL 29: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Luis Ortiz
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Pablo Lopez v. TBD
THURSDAY, MAY 1: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. Ben Lively
FRIDAY, MAY 2: TWINS @ RED SOX — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Walker Buehler
SATURDAY, MAY 3: TWINS @ RED SOX — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Brayan Bello
SUNDAY, MAY 4: TWINS @ RED SOX — RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Sean Newcomb

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[Vanimal46]

Keep it up and I’ll jump right back in after the Wolves and Wild’s playoff runs. Until then the Twins are a distant 3rd place on the priority list. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Playing the White Sox and the Angels will do wonders for their opponents' hitting, pitching and fielding.

[Blyleven2011]

Best week in review coming at the expense of the white Sox and angels ...

Now hopefully we can keep that momentum going on the road against Cleveland and Boston  ...

Keaschall being injured and out for a couple of months is the low light ...

Cleveland tomorrow night , pound them and pound them hard ...

[mikelink45]

Next week determines whether I am impressed with this week's results or not.

[S Bart]

Well, the pitching staff has the 10th best ERA and 9th highest strikeout total in baseball which is not bad considering their record. Matthews is waiting in the wings with a 1.93 ERA in AAA. I agree with the comment above. This next week will show if there is a true upward trend. It should be noted that that three starters (Castro, Wallner, Lewis) were on the DL this last week and will not be present this upcoming week. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Take the first two in CLE and finish just 2 games below .500 for April, then build on that,

[Riverbrian]

.830 team OPS in the past 7 days.

4th best. 

That has been tremendously helpful.

Trevor Larnach leading the way. 

[twinzcynic]

"Haha take that haterz!! The twins just dominated very real MLB ball clubs to turn around their slow start. THe haterz were blinded by their hate of the Favline/Rocco philosophies that the SMART people here at twinsdaily love! Dominating the Angels/ChiSox means that we are for sure contenderz."

-Abridged quotes from most people onthis site last year.

[NYCTK]

Well, the Twins went 17-2 against the White Sox and Angels last season. And everything was smooth sailing after that I think.