Surprisingly, David Festa's Fastball Stinks. Here's Why It's Not an Easy Fix.

[Matt Braun]

Finally, a disadvantage for tall people. 

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Ten innings into 2025, a concerning trend with David Festa is continuing: his fastball isn’t cutting it. He’s allowing a .357 batting average against the heater, and the under-the-hood stats suggest it isn’t a fluke; that pitch is just far too hittable. If he wants to become a regular in the Twins rotation, something will need to change.

One of the inherent challenges in altering a pitcher’s offerings rests in the bedrock of their mix, the fastball. A player’s four-seam fastball can be malleable, to an extent—we’ve seen cut/cut-ride hurlers (like Dylan Cease) tweak their heaters for the better, or simply add a sinker—but the way someone throws a fastball is almost written into their DNA, and this isn’t Gattaca (1997). Unlike the crazy alterations we see pitchers make with breaking balls and offspeed offerings, their fastballs remain mostly static. Even Twins pitching guru Josh Kalk said, at last year's SABR Annual Conference in Minneapolis, that the team thinks about fastball shape as an immutable characteristic, akin to a fingerprint.

Festa’s main issue is that he’s an outlier in the modern pitching world, but maybe not in the best way. The Joe Ryans (Joes Ryan? people like Joe Ryan, is the point) of the world, with their low slots and high-rise heaters, are everywhere, and for good reason: carrying four-seamers at the top of the zone are difficult for hitters to identify and hit with consistency. Yet, while Ryan throws with a 23-degree arm angle, Festa is at 50 degrees, one of the highest in baseball.

That makes one of his fastballs at the top of the zone much easier for batters to hit. Hitters are less fooled by high heat when it comes from a high slot. Four-seamers in the top third of the zone with a sub-25° arm angle have induced a .181 batting average, .359 slugging, and 30.2% whiff rate since the start of last year, league-wide. The same pitch type in the same location begets a .249 average, a .435 SLG, and just 21.4% whiffs per swing if it comes from an arm angle of at least 50°.

That’s how Festa's 95-MPH fastball—with some of the best induced vertical break in MLB (19.2 inches)—gets hit at such a troubling clip. 

So, what can he do about it? Well, it’s clear the Twins are aware of his fastball woes. Festa introduced a sinker in 2025 to help augment his pitch mix, and introducing a sinker counts as a drastic step for the Twins. He’s only thrown the offering seven times in the majors, though, so it’s still unclear how effective it may be, and how it alters his profile. He also is already down 6° from his arm slot in 2024, so maybe they're trying to gradually get him working from a slightly more conventional three-quarters slot. 

Location is another factor. Festa has moved from a middle-high target to one on the glove-side third of the plate, belt-high. That’s an interesting change to make, given that the team is likely well aware of his on-plane issues. Here's where his fastballs landed in 2024, for reference. Obviously, too many of those balls crept down into the lower half of the zone and were still in the middle of the plate, but you can see what he's trying to do.

They could be looking at altering how he tunnels, but haven’t yet seen results because his slider command from last year has yet to arrive at the party. In any case, I think the horizontal move is groovy, but he’s still just a little low; if he can consistently bang high-and-away to righties, and under the armpit to lefties, that should do the trick. But that’s a tough spot to live in if his command isn’t up to snuff. So far, he's not quite finding that spot. He's caught in between hitting that top rail and steering it to the glove side, a bit.

There are successful tall, high-slot pitchers, but it’s a small group. Festa doesn’t have the velocity of Peak Justin Verlander or Tyler Glasnow, so he can’t just overpower hitters in the zone. He’s somewhat similar to his rotation mate, Chris Paddack, who has also had trouble getting the most out of his fastball. 

He may have to embrace the philosophy of Michael Wacha. Like Festa, Wacha is 6-foot-6 and throws from an almost identical slot (51°). His fastball isn’t good, in velocity or in shape characteristics, so he’s content to throw it in hittable locations to allow his tremendous changeup to succeed. The difference is in the depth of their arsenals: Wacha has six pitches, and while only one of them may be truly elite, the mere existence of the other five is enough to give him an edge that Festa lacks. It’s a lot easier for a hitter to only consider three (and a half? How generous are you feeling about that sinker?) pitches. At least throw an overhand curveball, dude!

Festa is still a tremendously promising pitcher. Of the trio of young hurlers consisting of Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and Festa, I think he possesses the best chance at becoming a stud major-league starter. His changeup feel at such a young age is difficult to teach; his slider command last year was remarkable. He’s in a weird spot, where his command and “stuff” are good but need tweaking for him to reach his full potential. Those tweaks may be difficult to make.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

What was the BAA on his fastball last year?  You might be right, but 10 innings isn't a sample size to hang your hat on.  Need a deeper pool of info.  Inherently, his arm angle might be more difficult to produce results from, but others have done it.  He may also.

[Linus]

I don’t think it’s that complicated. He’s as good as his location. He struggled with it in the minors and has improved in the bigs which is an accomplishment but it is still not a strength. There are few pitches nasty enough to be successful if not properly located. If he can’t take the next step his ceiling is back of the rotation guy which ain’t bad. 

[Karbo]

I would think with all the analytics the Twins use they should have figured that out sooner, like in the minors. IMO that's where he should be working on something like this. Sounds like Pablo will be back for his next start on Thursday so let him work on either his arm slot or sinker in St. Paul

[LambchoP]

I think Festa and his fastball will be just fine. If he's too hittable at the top of the zone because of his over the top delivery, maybe throwing it down low in the zone would be better. I just hope the Twins don't ruin him, he's got a great arm and a lot of potential. 

[bean5302]

Stuff+ has Festa's fastball as 100 (50 grade) last year and 104 (still 50 grade) this year. Given the sample size for Festa, it's tough to pull much more from the data. All it takes is a couple poorly placed pitches and the number of runs allowed can really move around.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I would think with all the analytics the Twins use they should have figured that out sooner, like in the minors. IMO that's where he should be working on something like this. Sounds like Pablo will be back for his next start on Thursday so let him work on either his arm slot or sinker in St. Paul

harder to figure out in the minors, because you're not going to have the same kinds of negative results, I think? there are things you can get away with even in AAA that MLB will eat you up on, and until you actually have the negative results on the fastball you won't truly know if it's too hittable or not and what kind of adjustments you need to make whether it's location, arm slot, etc.

I'm guessing the Twins had some concerns?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

What was the BAA on his fastball last year?  You might be right, but 10 innings isn't a sample size to hang your hat on.  Need a deeper pool of info.  Inherently, his arm angle might be more difficult to produce results from, but others have done it.  He may also.

Gave up a .304 BA against his fastball last year. .544 slugging against it. 

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Gave up a .304 BA against his fastball last year. .544 slugging against it. 

Seems like league median is a .425 SLG against 4 seamers. A hitter with a .544 SLG against fastballs would rank about 85% percentile. One of the issues with grading a pitch on its own is whether or not the pitch helps a different offering.

That's why Stuff+ compares pitches with each other to determine how pitches can feed off one another. If the fastball and a changeup break different directions and have a big difference in velocity, but look the same coming out of the hand, it can elevate both pitches beyond what they are on their own.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Gave up a .304 BA against his fastball last year. .544 slugging against it. 

Definitely less than optimal, but also better than this year's results. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Seems like league median is a .425 SLG against 4 seamers. A hitter with a .544 SLG against fastballs would rank about 85% percentile. One of the issues with grading a pitch on its own is whether or not the pitch helps a different offering.

That's why Stuff+ compares pitches with each other to determine how pitches can feed off one another. If the fastball and a changeup break different directions and have a big difference in velocity, but look the same coming out of the hand, it can elevate both pitches beyond what they are on their own.

A pitch can be the nastiest in the world but if hitters hit it well it doesn't matter. Hitters see Festa's fastball well. They hit it hard. And they put up big numbers against it. 

As the article said, that's not a huge deal if he has a bunch of offerings, but Festa is a 3-pitch pitcher (for now). And, really, he's closer to a 2-pitch pitcher because his change and slider usage are pretty platoon heavy. So, the hitter really only needs to worry about 2 pitches coming at him since he knows if he's a lefty it's most likely a fastball or change (82% chance) and if he's a righty it's most likely a fastball or slider (71% chance, so more balanced here). 

Stuff+ can rank his fastball however it wants. But, so far, his fastball has been hit hard and it's a problem because he doesn't have a deep repertoire. He throws his fastball 40% of the time so it's not a crazy high percentage, but it's enough that the numbers he's giving up are concerning for his ability to reach his ceiling. He has time to adjust and he's already working on that with adding the sinker. His book isn't written. He just got to the bigs. But the fastball numbers are definitely a concern at this point. And it has been a known concern. It's why he's been working on adding other pitches since he got into pro ball.

[TwinsDr2021]

Being 24 for a starting pitcher to debut isn't the end of the world, but having an ERA at 4 and a whip 1.264 is worrisome. Compare that to Ryan and Ober both had a WHIP below 1 in the minors. (As does Zebby) Besides K's Festa compares similair to Erik Fedde.

[bean5302]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A pitch can be the nastiest in the world but if hitters hit it well it doesn't matter. Hitters see Festa's fastball well. They hit it hard. And they put up big numbers against it. 

As the article said, that's not a huge deal if he has a bunch of offerings, but Festa is a 3-pitch pitcher (for now). And, really, he's closer to a 2-pitch pitcher because his change and slider usage are pretty platoon heavy. So, the hitter really only needs to worry about 2 pitches coming at him since he knows if he's a lefty it's most likely a fastball or change (82% chance) and if he's a righty it's most likely a fastball or slider (71% chance, so more balanced here). 

Stuff+ can rank his fastball however it wants. But, so far, his fastball has been hit hard and it's a problem because he doesn't have a deep repertoire. He throws his fastball 40% of the time so it's not a crazy high percentage, but it's enough that the numbers he's giving up are concerning for his ability to reach his ceiling. He has time to adjust and he's already working on that with adding the sinker. His book isn't written. He just got to the bigs. But the fastball numbers are definitely a concern at this point. And it has been a known concern. It's why he's been working on adding other pitches since he got into pro ball.

Do hitters suck at hitting Festa's 35/40 grade changeup as a result of the fastball?

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

harder to figure out in the minors, because you're not going to have the same kinds of negative results, I think? there are things you can get away with even in AAA that MLB will eat you up on, and until you actually have the negative results on the fastball you won't truly know if it's too hittable or not and what kind of adjustments you need to make whether it's location, arm slot, etc.

I'm guessing the Twins had some concerns?

I gotta mildly disagree on whether one can alter or develop a pitch at AAA level that will be a confident change at the MLB level. Guys can find pitches - new grip - arm slot, throwing on the side in the Bullpen w/o a batter present. Sure, at some point you have to take it to the mound in competition. Guys don’t typically experiment on the mound at MLB level - seeing if their new grip will get guys out.

[JD-TWINS]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A pitch can be the nastiest in the world but if hitters hit it well it doesn't matter. Hitters see Festa's fastball well. They hit it hard. And they put up big numbers against it. 

As the article said, that's not a huge deal if he has a bunch of offerings, but Festa is a 3-pitch pitcher (for now). And, really, he's closer to a 2-pitch pitcher because his change and slider usage are pretty platoon heavy. So, the hitter really only needs to worry about 2 pitches coming at him since he knows if he's a lefty it's most likely a fastball or change (82% chance) and if he's a righty it's most likely a fastball or slider (71% chance, so more balanced here). 

Stuff+ can rank his fastball however it wants. But, so far, his fastball has been hit hard and it's a problem because he doesn't have a deep repertoire. He throws his fastball 40% of the time so it's not a crazy high percentage, but it's enough that the numbers he's giving up are concerning for his ability to reach his ceiling. He has time to adjust and he's already working on that with adding the sinker. His book isn't written. He just got to the bigs. But the fastball numbers are definitely a concern at this point. And it has been a known concern. It's why he's been working on adding other pitches since he got into pro ball.

I agree - his book hasn’t been written!

He needs a more significant change of speed IMO as his “change-up” sits at 90-92mph. To me that’s an off-season/spring training grip adjustment or NEW grip. Either the sinker or cutter would be the typical variation off of the fastball arm motion. He does need a 4th pitch for some additional deception for the hitter’s heads, if nothing else.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Do hitters suck at hitting Festa's 35/40 grade changeup as a result of the fastball?

So, let hitters crush the pitch you throw 40% of the time so they fail against the pitch you throw 27% of the time and the vast majority of that 27% is against lefties only? Solid strategy. I can see why his fastball getting smoked isn't a problem now.

The pitch he throws the most getting blasted is a problem. I don't get why that's controversial. I've met Eno Sarris. Super nice guy. Not even he would tell you it's a good strategy to have your most often used pitch get mashed because it's Stuff+ is good. You're misusing Stuff+ to try to explain away a very real problem.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I think it’s pretty clear he is locating his 4-seamer to draw a picture of himself, or possibly a fetus, throwing a 4-seamer.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So, let hitters crush the pitch you throw 40% of the time so they fail against the pitch you throw 27% of the time and the vast majority of that 27% is against lefties only? Solid strategy. I can see why his fastball getting smoked isn't a problem now.

The pitch he throws the most getting blasted is a problem. I don't get why that's controversial. I've met Eno Sarris. Super nice guy. Not even he would tell you it's a good strategy to have your most often used pitch get mashed because it's Stuff+ is good. You're misusing Stuff+ to try to explain away a very real problem.

I didn't say that. Not really interested in fighting.

[DocBauer]

Look, I'm just not the pitch expert that a lot of my TD brethern are. What i see is a kid with a great 3 pitch mix, though i understand a 4th pitch changes most pitchers dynamic. I've seen a top prospect who has been pretty damn good since he hit the ML level in 2024. And he's been pretty good so far in 2025, SSS.

I know his 2 seamer is under construction. And I know that even a different grip on a ball can change how good a pitch can be. 

I may not be an expert, but I'm not stupid. 

Does he just need a different grip on his 4 seamer to make it move differently? Does he just need to get that sinker working better? Or does he just need a cutter?

I think Festa is right on the edge of being a very, very good ML SP. But what does he need to cross that line?