MLBTR Twins Pursuit of Dylan Cease

[bean5302]

Sounds like the Padres are probably pursuing Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober as the centerpiece. Both either is worth well more than Cease on a standalone basis, IMHO.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/dylan-cease-discusses-trade-rumors.html

Quote

Hayes notes that the Twins would prefer to offer a package headlined by a young starter like Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson that would also include Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro. Woods Richardson posted solid back-of-the-rotation production for the Twins in his rookie season last year, with a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts, while Matthews struggled in nine starts at the big league level but remains the club’s top pitching prospect and is generally believed to project as a #4 starter in the majors long-term.

 

[Linus]

I’m with you that Ryan or Ober is a non- starter - I mean hang up the phone non- starter.  I’m not even sure I would give up 5 years of SWR for one year of Cease but I’m a little higher on him than most.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Ryan or Ober with 3 years of control left. Neither quite as good as Cease. Easy no however. The idea of Matthews or Richardson and Castro or Larnach. I could probably be persuaded to give up Richardson and Larnach. Yes I like SWR, but pitching 4.2 IP is a negative to him. Castro, maybe. He will be an FA after the season. But we do need him for 2025 don't we? Larnach should be replaceable by Emrod soon enough we hope.

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Ryan or Ober with 3 years of control left. Neither quite as good as Cease. Easy no however. The idea of Matthews or Richardson and Castro or Larnach. I could probably be persuaded to give up Richardson and Larnach. Yes I like SWR, but pitching 4.2 IP is a negative to him. Castro, maybe. He will be an FA after the season. But we do need him for 2025 don't we? Larnach should be replaceable by Emrod soon enough we hope.

I'd be happy shipping out SWR, Paddack and Larnach. Gotta have some payroll relief coming back (Paddack). It's a bit risky, though as it means a hit to the depth for the outfield, which is already thin.

[Danchat]

If Larnach or Castro got moved, who is their replacement? I get sending a younger pitcher + prospect(s) for Cease, but they already have issues filling out the lineup... feels like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

[sweetmusicviola16]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd be happy shipping out SWR, Paddack and Larnach. Gotta have some payroll relief coming back (Paddack). It's a bit risky, though as it means a hit to the depth for the outfield, which is already thin.

Yes about Larnach. If he was traded then Emrod has to be ready or we'd be in some hurt.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Danchat said:

If Larnach or Castro got moved, who is their replacement? I get sending a younger pitcher + prospect(s) for Cease, but they already have issues filling out the lineup... feels like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Larnach getting moved pushes Castro into LF.
Castro gets moved pushes Brooks Lee into the IF vs. utility.
Probably how it goes.

The question is how much do the Twins lose by making those swaps. Larnach has never posted a 2 WAR season. Castro is a 2-3 WAR player, depending on where he plays. The drop off from losing them isn't probably critical.

[tony&rodney]

Quite natural for San Diego (Preller) to ask about Ober and Ryan and also indicate an interest in Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. My take is that all of those names were pretty much dropped past the initial hello stage. 

Both Minnesota and San Diego have some motivation to engage further, which is why Dan Hayes writes his article. He suggests the likelihood of any deal remains low. The Padres need players, the Twins need a publicity boost. A trade will be complicated but possible. Preller needs to be reasonable and Falvey/Zoll needs to have confidence in those players who would pick up the slack from traded players. Perhaps the Twins add a bit of salary too. 

Preller wants to add a LF (Larnach), a DH/1B (Julien), possibly a utility player (Castro), and SP (SWR/Matthews). There are certainly other names being discussed and these discussions are likely on and off. Other teams are also attempting to pry Cease away from San Diego as well, but most of the other rumors involve more prospects than actual MLB players. The Padres are competing for a playoff position and while a Cubs or Mets prospect laden deal might be good 3 years from now, I would be surprised to see San Diego give up on 2025.

Perhaps if the Twins expand the deal to accept relief pitcher Robert Suarez (sunk contract), there could be an exchange that is kinder to the Twins. Speculatively, Larnach (LF), Julien (DH/1B), Castro (if/of), Paddack (SP), and a prospect along the lines of Cory Lewis or C. J. Culpepper would complete the trade for Cease and Suarez. San Diego sends away $23..75M in player costs but receives back $16.75M in players. The end result for San Diego leaves them with some money to add a guy like Gibson, Heaney, Lynn, or Quintana while their position group is strengthened. The Twins would be thinned though at the corner outfield spot and a utility player short for now. The upside is a risk. Do the Twins believe in Emmanuel Rodriguez and others or does caution and a risk adverse course continue to be the strategy of our favorite team. 

That is the way I read the current Cease situation and it seems like nothing will happen based on the past. But .... you never know.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

If Larnach or Castro got moved, who is their replacement? I get sending a younger pitcher + prospect(s) for Cease, but they already have issues filling out the lineup... feels like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I'm really happy with what Larnach did last year.  But he's been at the MLB level for four seasons now and he just isn't a consistent hitter. I'm Ok selling high on him, because the next time he goes in a half season slump I don't think his value will ever recover.

[DJL44]

It might be prudent for the Twins to overpay in MLB talent and get back some prospects from San Diego. The Padres undervalue their prospects.

There is still free agent talent available to fill out the roster.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Quite natural for San Diego (Preller) to ask about Ober and Ryan and also indicate an interest in Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. My take is that all of those names were pretty much dropped past the initial hello stage. 

Both Minnesota and San Diego have some motivation to engage further, which is why Dan Hayes writes his article. He suggests the likelihood of any deal remains low. The Padres need players, the Twins need a publicity boost. A trade will be complicated but possible. Preller needs to be reasonable and Falvey/Zoll needs to have confidence in those players who would pick up the slack from traded players. Perhaps the Twins add a bit of salary too. 

Preller wants to add a LF (Larnach), a DH/1B (Julien), possibly a utility player (Castro), and SP (SWR/Matthews). There are certainly other names being discussed and these discussions are likely on and off. Other teams are also attempting to pry Cease away from San Diego as well, but most of the other rumors involve more prospects than actual MLB players. The Padres are competing for a playoff position and while a Cubs or Mets prospect laden deal might be good 3 years from now, I would be surprised to see San Diego give up on 2025.

Perhaps if the Twins expand the deal to accept relief pitcher Robert Suarez (sunk contract), there could be an exchange that is kinder to the Twins. Speculatively, Larnach (LF), Julien (DH/1B), Castro (if/of), Paddack (SP), and a prospect along the lines of Cory Lewis or C. J. Culpepper would complete the trade for Cease and Suarez. San Diego sends away $23..75M in player costs but receives back $16.75M in players. The end result for San Diego leaves them with some money to add a guy like Gibson, Heaney, Lynn, or Quintana while their position group is strengthened. The Twins would be thinned though at the corner outfield spot and a utility player short for now. The upside is a risk. Do the Twins believe in Emmanuel Rodriguez and others or does caution and a risk adverse course continue to be the strategy of our favorite team. 

That is the way I read the current Cease situation and it seems like nothing will happen based on the past. But .... you never know.

I would do that deal.  Have no idea how realistic it is but I would be comfortable losing those players for a year of Cease.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Linus said:

I would do that deal.  Have no idea how realistic it is but I would be comfortable losing those players for a year of Cease.

Preller will believe that Cease will return more and Falvey will believe the price is exorbitant. That's why no deal.

The reality is that the Padres could use Paddack as a starter more so than the Twins and the difference in money, if Suarez is added to the deal, allows  San Diego to sign up an inexpensive free agent while filling holes that they cannot buy on the free agent market. If the Padres look for prospects they can do better talking with either of the Cubs or Mets but I'm not seeing why Preller would shift to prospects to help the team this year. Larnach, Julien, and the minor leaguers C. Lewis and C. J. Culpepper have years of control left, while Paddack and Castro strengthen the team this year. Preller does this deal if offered because it helps the 2025 team.

The Twins would hesitate because Castro has been valuable across the field and Larnach had some growth as a batter last year. Minnesota also almost certainly still has positive ideas about Julien, despite the groans from many on Twins Daily. Agreeing to take Suarez is risky too because he still has 2 player option years at $8M. If he bombs, that money is quite a hit. Falvey/Zoll does this deal because it is a splash for boosting public notice of the team.

The deal: Larnach, Julien, Castro, Paddack, C. Lewis, and C. J. Culpepper for Cease and Suarez.

[T.O.]

I have a cousin that knows someone that overheard someone in the checkout at the grocery store say that the Twins legal team was filing a Cease and desist order to stop these trade rumors.

[Danchat]

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm Ok selling high on him, because the next time he goes in a half season slump I don't think his value will ever recover.

Sure, I'm not opposed to selling high on him, but him being part of a larger package to get one year of a good starter doesn't seem like he is being sold for all that much.

[amjgt]

Every time this topic comes up I like to mention that Falvey's motivations might not align with typical Twins Fans' motivations (mix of current success and future outlook)

If I was a betting man, anything less than the playoff this year and new ownership will not retain Falvey. He's not a "sell the farm" kind of guy but if he can make a big improvement to 2025 (Cease would be that) for a package that might hurt a little, but is probably fair, then I wouldn't be surprised if he did it. 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Every time this topic comes up I like to mention that Falvey's motivations might not align with typical Twins Fans' motivations (mix of current success and future outlook)

If I was a betting man, anything less than the playoff this year and new ownership will not retain Falvey. He's not a "sell the farm" kind of guy but if he can make a big improvement to 2025 (Cease would be that) for a package that might hurt a little, but is probably fair, then I wouldn't be surprised if he did it. 

Good point. This could be Falvey's last season running a team. I think he would like to go for it.

[amjgt]

I also always feel like I should say...

I like Falvey and I think he's a good GM/Whatever his new title is.

But if you're a new owner and 2024 happened, then you miss the playoffs in 2025, it seems like you'd sack the top dude.

[bean5302]

So... when evaluating Derek Falvey's motivation, I think it's important to consider a couple things.
1) How much does Falvey's performance impact whether or not the new owner is going to keep him?
2) How much does Falvey want to stay with the Twins?
3) What are Falvey's other options around the league?

1) If the new owner has already formed an opinion on Derek Falvey (and they very likely have), that opinion is probably going to stick. An unexpectedly poor or great performance by the Twins in 2025 might move the needle, but it's awfully hard to change people's opinions. 

2) I don't know about this one. This probably will depend hugely on new ownership. The Twins are an underperforming mid-market team, but the work thus far has come with minimal scrutiny and pressure for an MLB franchise. Expectations in most markets would be much higher pressure, but with a lot more reward, too. Falvey might prefer keeping a lower profile or he might prefer working in a milder climate or he might crave the spotlight. Who knows?

3) Regardless of what fans here think about Falvey's acumen, I think it's likely safe to say another team would hire him in some capacity. That said, Levine clearly hasn't had much luck in that regard. His LinkedIn profile role remains Twins GM. If Levine wanted a role in baseball and Falvey was highly regarded, I expect Levine would have been more coveted.

[tony&rodney]

I'm not understanding the comments on here, relatively common, that assert that Falvey could easily get another  job as a GM or POBO or Team President. His record with the Twins is ok. Teams will seek out better than ok, which starts with the work of front office people working for Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. I'm not down on Falvey any more than I was down on Levine. I have no idea what type of plan they use in regards to building a baseball team. Many argued that Levine would be snapped up in 30 days and I'm not privy to his current status. 

The key for the Twins roster is dependent on how Falvey sees the current group. There are opportunities to make deals with other teams and I will certainly suggest that the terms can be difficult to hash out. Will Falvey find a way. I think he can if his confidence level rises on those players who need to fill any holes from players sent the other way in a trade. Certainly a new owner will be aware of how Falvey approached and managed the current situation, i.e., handling the roster building this offseason.

[LambchoP]

I'd be cool with Cease and maybe a prospect for SWR/Mathews, Larnach/Castro and Paddack.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I'd be cool with Cease and maybe a prospect for SWR/Mathews, Larnach/Castro and Paddack.

I guess I would too. Wondering if San Diego accepts Paddack. I'm real high on both Woods Richardson and Matthews but losing one allows a good year of development from AAA SP's with Lopez, Cease, Ober, Ryan leading, and Festa or SWR in the fifth spot. Initially I didn't really think Cease would be a good idea because of the cost of players going to the Padres. Now i feel like the Twins need a little shaking up to move off of being a .500 team. This will require faith and commitment to Emmanuel Rodriguez and few other inexperienced players. I'm still not sure the Twins believe in their guys.

I'm a little concerned about the lack of a decent catcher to work in the event that either Jeffers or Vazquez go down for two or more weeks. The last two years the Twins have rolled with these two and plan to do so again. Seems like a backup plan is needed. The guys they have slated for AA and AAA are ok for a week or so but any longer time will expose the team badly. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just updating here that MLB owners unanimously voted to have John Seidler, brother of late Padres owner Peter Seidler, as Padres new control person this morning. There was a dispute going on as far as who would be the primary person in charge of owning/running the team.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2025/02/06/mlb-owners-to-vote-on-john-seidlers-padres-role/

I don't know if this has anything to do with a Cease trade or not. But having a person in charge formally COULD potentially get things moving for any more moves that the Padres will make this offseason.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Nick Pivetta signs with San Diego, 4/55. They give up a pick for signing someone who had been offered the qo. This possibly relates in some way to their listening on trading Cease. Do you think this signing changes at all the changes they trade Cease now? 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

14 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Nick Pivetta signs with San Diego, 4/55. They give up a pick for signing someone who had been offered the qo. This possibly relates in some way to their listening on trading Cease. Do you think this signing changes at all the changes they trade Cease now? 

Padres came out with a statement that they weren't looking to trade Cease or King. Could be negotiating ploy or maybe they mean it. I never really thought Cease to the Twins was a thing. Felt like Vazquez' name got linked to the Padres and then a few folks ran with the possibility of Cease and it just became an aggregation rumor after that. I'd love for Cease to be slotted in next to Pablo, Ober and Ryan. That's a World Series caliber rotation. Just don't see it happening.

[Cory Engelhardt]

35 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Padres came out with a statement that they weren't looking to trade Cease or King. Could be negotiating ploy or maybe they mean it. I never really thought Cease to the Twins was a thing. Felt like Vazquez' name got linked to the Padres and then a few folks ran with the possibility of Cease and it just became an aggregation rumor after that. I'd love for Cease to be slotted in next to Pablo, Ober and Ryan. That's a World Series caliber rotation. Just don't see it happening.

I agree with you. He came up because Dan Hayes and Denis Lin (San Diego's beat writer for the Athletic)both confirmed that the Twins and Padres had talked on Cease.

It is interesting that Pivetta is getting about what Cease is this year now. 

I'm not even saying that it's only the Twins that should be in on Cease. Lots of teams should, namely Baltimore with all of their prospects. 

I guess we'll see how the offseason unfolds. Cease would be really great here.