Frozen in Place: AL Central Teams Sitting Out an Active Hot Stove Season

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Potential would probably be a better word, as AAA talent doesn't always equal MLB talent. But that is true for more than just Twins players.

True but , it seems, right now, Twins rookies do a belly-flop more frequently than other teams.

[LewFordLives]

33 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Their highest-paid players (Correa, Buxton, Lopez) are their best players. That's what you want, isn't it? Yes there are going to be availability questions with Correa and Buck but I'll take that over paying $25M to Javier Baez who you'd prefer not to have playing when healthy.

Everything you said is true, but it's still also true that Correa and Buxton have been part-time players. Did the front office err in signing them, or are they just unlucky? I don't know the answer. I thought the Buxton signing was a team friendly deal and was all for it. The Correa signing only makes sense if they have a payroll approaching $200 million.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

India came with the loss of Singer. Santana came with the loss of Naylor. It's a little misleading to only count additions and not subtractions when talking about the moves those teams made. Cleveland traded their gold glove 2B for salary relief, One could argue they had to do that to afford Bieber. Torres is the only addition that didn't come with a subtraction. 

And farm system rankings are all well and good, but if David Festa and Zebby Matthews were still eligible MN would be much higher than 13. The White Sox just set the all time single season loss record and traded their best player to land the prospects to get that ranking. I'll take the Twins situation over that any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

At this point I 'd take anything over the ChiSox organization

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

True but , it seems, right now, Twins rookies do a belly-flop more frequently than other teams.

This is truly the nut they need to crack. 

Probably a bit of local team bias but a consistently top 5 farm system should graduate more lineup lock players. We are still playing pick a spot with every guy in his third year.

Squinting to make Miranda and Julien maybe 1st baseman isn't a great last step of player development. 

On the topic, I do understand why they are being patient with these guys.  Unlocking the kids has always been the key.

[Brandon]

Guys the Twins have a pretty stable roster at the moment.  I don’t expect much the next theee offseason either maybe a trade of a player for prospects with a player ready to come up from the minors thing.  
 

Also the AL Central is gearing up for the bargain bin shopping bonanza before the start of the season.  Kansas City only needs complimentary players some offense that can hit above league average and a few relievers Cleveland can sign Polanco for 2B, Detroit was talking with Flaherty I think and can probably get by with another offensive player or two off the discount rack.  Detroit is the only competitive team that really needs a player like Bergman at 3B.  So get ready for the discounted dollar store shopping spree coming soon to the AL Central.  Be there or miss the offseason…. I guess.

[tony&rodney]

The top 2 salaries from each team / next 24 players out of 26 person roster/ 26 man team payroll /Revenue.

Seems like each team has an additional $26M in player costs. Add cost to payroll, divide by revenue for percentile of finances spent on players. Caveat on all numbers from Cots and Statistica.

This always makes me think of how we hear about players receiving around 50% of revenue. Hmmmm?

MIL  ($42M/$59M/$101M) / $320M  @40M 

CWS ($32M/$27M/$59M) / $288M  @30M

CLE   ($31M/$57M/$88M) / $315M   @36M

DET ($40M/$63M/$103M) / $306M @42%

KCR ($38M/$67M/$105M) / $302M  @43%           

MIN ($59M/$75M/$134M) / $342M  @47%

Seems like the Twins have it better when it comes to spending on players beside the top two salaries.

I'm guessing Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Milwaukee still have some room for additional payroll. I'm expecting those teams to make some additions. Bregman and Verlander to Detroit?

The Twins look maxed out, which leaves the front office to be "creative". I'm counting on some fun gains from our guys and hope the front office finds a productive deal or two. I am thinking that a number of younger / inexperienced players make a difference.

[mnfireman]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

True but , it seems, right now, Twins rookies do a belly-flop more frequently than other teams.

Learning a position at the MLB level is not how you develop players.

Playing a kid part-time is not how you develop players.

Continuing to play an over-matched kid is not how you develop players. 

Seems a lot more failure should be placed on the MLB staff than on the MiLB staff(s).

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Guys like Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Castro, Larnach, Wallner, Rodriguez are pretty good. Obviously Buxton and Correa. Miranda can hit. The Twins have players. They just seem to be a mishmash to me without clearly defined roles. Maybe that shifts this year. Oh, the pitching staff looks pretty good right now. It is easily a .500 team and with a few tweaks, maybe 90. That is a fair team.

You don't tweak a bad team and then win 90. There's got to be real changes after a team looks as pathetic as they did last season.

Ownership obviously doesn't care about the on field product this year, focused solely on getting rid of the team. So the fans should adjust their expectations accordingly. 

2026 and beyond! 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This is truly the nut they need to crack. 

Probably a bit of local team bias but a consistently top 5 farm system should graduate more lineup lock players. We are still playing pick a spot with every guy in his third year.

Squinting to make Miranda and Julien maybe 1st baseman isn't a great last step of player development. 

On the topic, I do understand why they are being patient with these guys.  Unlocking the kids has always been the key.

Then leave them in AAA till they are ready, do not waste time being another American Legion team  for youngsters.

If they fail, move on, or send them back as many times as necessary.

There are many players who excell except in MLB, the Twins seem to find them.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Learning a position at the MLB level is not how you develop players.

Playing a kid part-time is not how you develop players.

Continuing to play an over-matched kid is not how you develop players. 

Seems a lot more failure should be placed on the MLB staff than on the MiLB staff(s).

MLB is not where you develope players, it is where you separate the wheat from the chaff.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The top 2 salaries from each team / next 24 players out of 26 person roster/ 26 man team payroll /Revenue.

Seems like each team has an additional $26M in player costs. Add cost to payroll, divide by revenue for percentile of finances spent on players. Caveat on all numbers from Cots and Statistica.

This always makes me think of how we hear about players receiving around 50% of revenue. Hmmmm?

MIL  ($42M/$59M/$101M) / $320M  @40M 

CWS ($32M/$27M/$59M) / $288M  @30M

CLE   ($31M/$57M/$88M) / $315M   @36M

DET ($40M/$63M/$103M) / $306M @42%

KCR ($38M/$67M/$105M) / $302M  @43%           

MIN ($59M/$75M/$134M) / $342M  @47%

Seems like the Twins have it better when it comes to spending on players beside the top two salaries.

I'm guessing Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Milwaukee still have some room for additional payroll. I'm expecting those teams to make some additions. Bregman and Verlander to Detroit?

The Twins look maxed out, which leaves the front office to be "creative". I'm counting on some fun gains from our guys and hope the front office finds a productive deal or two. I am thinking that a number of younger / inexperienced players make a difference.

Are those revenue numbers from 2023?

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

India came with the loss of Singer. Santana came with the loss of Naylor. It's a little misleading to only count additions and not subtractions when talking about the moves those teams made. Cleveland traded their gold glove 2B for salary relief, One could argue they had to do that to afford Bieber. Torres is the only addition that didn't come with a subtraction. 

And farm system rankings are all well and good, but if David Festa and Zebby Matthews were still eligible MN would be much higher than 13. The White Sox just set the all time single season loss record and traded their best player to land the prospects to get that ranking. I'll take the Twins situation over that any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Can't go with this.  They lost Naylor, got our Santana and a prospect.  We lost Santana and got nothing - just hoping.  We lost Kepler and got nothing, could we have traded last year and got a prospect?  We have brought in a list of pitchers I do not want to go over and got nothing back as we let them walk.  Sorry, the other teams have done better and I am sorry that is the case.  

[Major League Ready]

55 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You don't tweak a bad team and then win 90. There's got to be real changes after a team looks as pathetic as they did last season.

Ownership obviously doesn't care about the on field product this year, focused solely on getting rid of the team. So the fans should adjust their expectations accordingly. 

2026 and beyond! 

Cleveland went from 76 wins in 2023 to 92 wins in 2024 without a significant addition.  It has been very common for teams building a young core to make significant improvement based on the development of young players.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Can't go with this.  They lost Naylor, got our Santana and a prospect.  We lost Santana and got nothing - just hoping.  We lost Kepler and got nothing, could we have traded last year and got a prospect?  We have brought in a list of pitchers I do not want to go over and got nothing back as we let them walk.  Sorry, the other teams have done better and I am sorry that is the case.  

This. Detroit added. KC has addressed a weakness. Cleveland has shuffled some pieces. CWS can likely only improve over 41 wins. Twins have signed the ultra versatile Mike Ford. Detroit and KC are also still being linked to players still on the board, which is more than the Twins are. We are only being linked to trading two guys just so we can meet "budget."

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'm not sure how we can honestly say that "the Twins have kept pace with the pack." We lost Carlos Santana and Max Kepler and nothing to replace them. Our defense will be a black hole. Lewis at 3rd, if not injured. Julien at 2B and Miranda at 1B. GL with this.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Are those revenue numbers from 2023?

Good question.

I used articles published last November (2024), but rechecking the revenue numbers are, indeed, from 2023. I guess numbers for 2024 are not out anywhere. This does change things certainly and i apologize for the error. As such, the expenses should be from last year and not the projected 2025 numbers. The payroll numbers below are rounded using 40 man roster plus MLB costs of benefits and bonuses applied to all teams.

MIL. $144 Rev. 320  45%

DET  $110 Rev. 306   36%

CLE. $125  Rev. 315   40%

KCR  $143 Rev. 302   47%

MIN  $149 Rev. 342   44%

CHW $157 Rev. 288   55%

FYI

Thank you the question. I don't usually go over this stuff too closely. Seems like teams are more or less doing what they can, but we might be able to see how some teams can add or understand that the White Sox are a mess.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Can't go with this.  They lost Naylor, got our Santana and a prospect.  We lost Santana and got nothing - just hoping.  We lost Kepler and got nothing, could we have traded last year and got a prospect?  We have brought in a list of pitchers I do not want to go over and got nothing back as we let them walk.  Sorry, the other teams have done better and I am sorry that is the case.  

Now you seem to be combining this offseason and overall recent historical front office performance into one. Arguing any Central team other than Cleveland has outperformed the Twins front office recently is nonsense. Nobody would make that argument. The Twins got a 1st round comp pick back for Sonny Gray. 

The Guardians can have 39-year old Santana for 12 mil. For a team with their offensive and financial struggles to drop that contract on that guy at 1B over Naylor is a win for the Twins. That swap made the Guardians a worse team. Slade Cecconi (the guy they got back for Naylor) isn't a prospect. He's been in the majors for parts of 2 seasons (104 innings, 17 starts) and owns an ERA over 6. In 77 innings last year (more than Festa threw for the Twins for reference) he had a 6.66 ERA. If the Twins traded their 2nd best hitter for Slade Cecconi in a swap like this these boards would be losing their collective minds. But the Guardians do it so now it's a win? Nope. Not buying it. Add in that they also traded their gold glove 2nd baseman to do nothing but save money and there's no way you guys would be praising the Twins for this. None. You'd be lighting the Twins up. But now you're claiming the Guardians are improving. The Guardians are less talented today than they were when the season ended.

Traded Kepler when? Before last year or during the season? Could have traded him before the season, and I would have. Rumors were they tried. These boards would've been pretty split on that with him coming off the 2nd half he had in 2023 and them coming off the playoff wins. But no, they couldn't have gotten anything useful for him in the middle of the year when he was terrible and hurt. Kepler isn't a loss from 2024. He was bad. He didn't help the team. Already mentioned that they got stuff for Gray. They traded Berrios and fans still complain about that. Can't please everyone. They should trade Ryan or Ober after 2025, but they'll get lit up for that. 

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Cleveland went from 76 wins in 2023 to 92 wins in 2024 without a significant addition.  It has been very common for teams building a young core to make significant improvement based on the development of young players.  

Sure. But the Twins look like they need a new rebuild given their current roster and restrictions. Not just a Mark Canha or Tommy Pham to patch a hole.  

If, say, Royce Lewis was the biggest question mark I wouldn't feel this way. But he's just one of about 7 on their current roster. 

This young core sadly appears to be a near complete bust. To the point you have fans wishing on Austin Martin based solely on the fact he was drafted 5th many years ago. Not to mention those fans trying to convince themselves Keirsey is a suitable backup CF for the guy we all know is going to miss at least half the season...

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

This. Detroit added. KC has addressed a weakness. Cleveland has shuffled some pieces. CWS can likely only improve over 41 wins. Twins have signed the ultra versatile Mike Ford. Detroit and KC are also still being linked to players still on the board, which is more than the Twins are. We are only being linked to trading two guys just so we can meet "budget."

 

15 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'm not sure how we can honestly say that "the Twins have kept pace with the pack." We lost Carlos Santana and Max Kepler and nothing to replace them. Our defense will be a black hole. Lewis at 3rd, if not injured. Julien at 2B and Miranda at 1B. GL with this.

Max Kepler didn't help the Twins in 2024. His loss doesn't mean anything. The Guardians traded their gold glove 2B and didn't replace him and their 2nd best hitter and replaced him with a guy who can't hit righties. They've made both their defense and already bad offense worse. Why should we care if Cleveland "shuffled pieces" if the new pieces are worse than the old pieces?

KC really hasn't done anything to improve overall as they traded from their rotation to address that weakness. If the Twins trade Ober for a bat would you say they've addressed their weakness and thus "kept pace with the pack?" The Royals had the 2nd best rotation ERA in baseball last year. It's why they were good. They just traded one of their starters. So now the best part of their team is weaker. Have they really improved? 

Detroit adding Gleyber is the only move that didn't come with a direct reduction in talent from the major league roster of one of our division rivals. If they add Bregman as well the 2025 Tigers would be looking pretty solid. But the other 2 teams worth talking about haven't improved their teams. So it's not too hard to "keep pace."

That being said, there's a lot of offseason left and, as you said, the other teams have a lot more noise around them than the Twins do. It certainly feels more likely that one or more of them add than the Twins add. But as of right now nobody in the central has really made any moves to separate themselves from this jumbled mess of mediocrity.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Sure. But the Twins look like they need a new rebuild given their current roster and restrictions. Not just a Mark Canha or Tommy Pham to patch a hole.  

If, say, Royce Lewis was the biggest question mark I wouldn't feel this way. But he's just one of about 7 on their current roster. 

This young core sadly appears to be a near complete bust. To the point you have fans wishing on Austin Martin based solely on the fact he was drafted 5th many years ago. Not to mention those fans trying to convince themselves Keirsey is a suitable backup CF for the guy we all know is going to miss at least half the season...

Near complete bust? Matt Wallner had a wRC+ of 155 last year. Was 143 the year before. Larnach was 121. Miranda 115. Lewis has crushed when healthy and was again last year until he ran out of gas (lost 1.7 MPH on his swing at the end of the year). Jeffers 107. Ryan and Ober are very much established legit major league pitchers. If that's a near complete bust of a young core I'd hate to see what your expectations are for a contending core. 

Are there massive health question marks with their 3 most talented position players? Absolutely. Is there a consistency concern from the roster overall that is mind boggling? For sure. But even with the collapse those guys put up more than respectable numbers.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Guardians traded their gold glove 2B and didn't replace him and their 2nd best hitter and replaced him with a guy who can't hit righties.

You say all this as if the Twins improvements aren't getting rid of their second best hitter to give more playing time to...Miranda and Julien? And as if Kepler will be suitably replaced by Austin Martin? 

Sorry, but currently the Twins are worse than last season.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You say all this as if the Twins improvements aren't getting rid of their second best hitter to give more playing time to...Miranda and Julien? And as if Kepler will be suitably replaced by Austin Martin? 

Sorry, but currently the Twins are worse than last season.

Kepler was already replaced by Martin last season so that isn't a change from 2024 to 2025. Miranda hit better than Santana last season so that is an improvement.

Other than those things, sure solid point.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kepler was already replaced by Martin last season so that isn't a change from 2024 to 2025. Miranda hit better than Santana last season so that is an improvement.

Other than those things, sure solid point.

For 1/3 of the season, sure, and the Twins were significantly worse for it. 

Miranda is a career 105 ops+ guy. Excuse me for not getting excited at the thought. But you're right...that means we're more so giving that playing time to Julien. Hooray! 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kepler was already replaced by Martin last season so that isn't a change from 2024 to 2025. Miranda hit better than Santana last season so that is an improvement.

Other than those things, sure solid point.

Martin replace Kepler. 🤣but he never played Right Field and was lousy in Center Field.

Miranda 9 dingers, Santana 21, but Santana played 30 more games; maybe if Miranda had played 30 more game he would have had those 12 extra dingers.

[chpettit19]

Just now, NYCTK said:

For 1/3 of the season, sure, and the Twins were significantly worse for it. 

Miranda is a career 105 ops+ guy. Excuse me for not getting excited at the thought. But you're right...that means we're more so giving that playing time to Julien. Hooray! 

I mean if you really want to get into it Martin isn't replacing Kepler at all. Martin isn't going to be a starting corner outfielder. Wallner is replacing Kepler in RF and that's a massive upgrade offensively while being a clear downgrade defensively. But overall it's an upgrade. So, the loss of Kepler isn't hurting anything because Matt Wallner in RF is an upgrade overall for the team.

Don't do that. You know very well that Miranda's 2023 OPS+ number was way down because of his injured shoulder and that's why his career number is 105. His healthy rookie season was 114 and last year was 112. But the discussion we are having is the change from the 2024 to 2025 team. The point you tried to make was the Twins lost their 2nd best hitter (you were trying to suggest that was Santana for some very weird reason) and I pointed out that Miranda hit better than him last year. Because he did. I'd be happy to make a wager with you that Miranda out hits him again in 2025. And there's no reason to believe that Santana leaving is clearing the way for more playing time for Julien. None at all. Miranda hit better against righties than lefties last year. Miranda as the everyday 1B is a far more reasonable expectation than Julien taking 1B reps from him.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

Martin replace Kepler. 🤣but he never played Right Field and was lousy in Center Field.

Miranda 9 dingers, Santana 21, but Santana played 30 more games; maybe if Miranda had played 30 more game he would have had those 12 extra dingers.

That wasn't my suggestion, it was the other poster. Martin isn't really replacing Kepler, Wallner is. And it's a very clear upgrade overall for the Twins.

Miranda was a better overall hitter than Santana. 

You're not worth discussing this with because your stance on all of this kind of stuff is that the veteran is the better option no matter what. So keep giving me the thumbs down and laughing faces and I'll just enjoy my night.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

In fairness the Twins have essentially created this pessimism through their words and actions. 

I all fairness there has always been pessimism even when they are wining 90+ games. 

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You don't tweak a bad team and then win 90. There's got to be real changes after a team looks as pathetic as they did last season.

The BP blew at least 10 games where Lopez, Ober, Ryan or SWR pitched well enough to win. Last year's team was closer to winning 90+ games than you might think.

It might be tougher to do this year, but the talent is there, the coaching staff just needs to draw the talent out.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Sure. But the Twins look like they need a new rebuild given their current roster and restrictions. Not just a Mark Canha or Tommy Pham to patch a hole.  

As currently constituted, the Twins are projected to have a top 10 offense and top 10 pitching staff in MLB, and those projections systems are accounting for the uncertainty. They are nearly a push to win the AL Central in Vegas, despite everyone being aware of what happened down the stretch.

Saying the Twins look like they need a rebuild is just out of touch with reality. It's a good team. They won 82 games last year even with the historic collapse and people act like they won 60.

[ashbury]

38 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

As currently constituted, the Twins are projected to have a top 10 offense and top 10 pitching staff in MLB, and those projections systems are accounting for the uncertainty. They are nearly a push to win the AL Central in Vegas, despite everyone being aware of what happened down the stretch.

Saying the Twins look like they need a rebuild is just out of touch with reality. It's a good team. They won 82 games last year even with the historic collapse and people act like they won 60.

Yabbut they went sumpin like 22-0 against the White Sox, didn't they? 😀