You're The Twins GM! Plotting My Offseason: Ciao, Willi Castro; Bring In Brendan Donovan

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins enter the 2024-2025 offseason with a very solid core that should have been a playoff team in the 2024 season. Alas, they watched the playoffs from their couch thanks to a historic collapse, but they still have the foundation for another playoff run in 2025. I’m putting my GM hat on and creating the blueprint I want to see the Twins follow over the next few months.

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Before we get into the moves, let’s establish constraints that need to be followed in order to make this realistic. Would I love to see the Twins pursue Juan Soto? Absolutely. Is that realistic? Absolutely not. And the primary reason for that, other than the infeasibility of him joining a small-market team, is that the Twins have a self-imposed salary cap. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins currently have roughly $137 million on the books in 2025, which includes the players who are arbitration-eligible, such as Willi Castro. It’s been reported that the Twins will not look to reduce payroll for the second consecutive season and, even with a new broadcast deal, it’s safe to assume they won’t be looking to raise payroll, either. So the biggest constraint we have to work with is keeping the payroll around the $137 million figure at which it currently sits. We also have to leave space for 40-man roster additions, who will cost $800,000 each. I'm going to account for four players totaling $3.2 million, so I'll use $133.8 million as the target payroll. Another move to consider is whether Griffin Jax will transition to a starting role in 2025, but that will not be a part of my blueprint: I personally think that’s a terrible idea. With all that laid out, let’s get into the moves.

Creating “Cap” Space
The Twins have 11 players on whom to make arbitration decisions in the coming weeks, and if they were to tender all of the players a contract it would cost roughly $32.6 million, using Cot’s projections. I'm including Jorge Alcalá in this group, since he is arbitration-eligible, but he would instead be retained via an option at $1.5 million. One way or another, I don’t think Willi Castro should be with the Twins next season, and whether he is non-tendered or tendered and then traded, I am freeing the Twins of his $6 million projection. I am also opening up $1.575 million by non-tendering right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin. I am picking up Alcalá’s option and tendering the rest of the 2024-2025 class, which includes Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Durán, Trevor Larnach, Griffin Jax, Royce Lewis, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart.

Next, we turn our sights to players who have guaranteed contracts, but whom we could look to move. We’ve created a series of articles for a few of these players, but the two I am going to do nearly whatever it takes to move are right-handed starter Chris Paddack ($7.5 million) and catcher Christian Vázquez ($10 million). To make that happen, especially in the case of Vázquez, the Twins may have to help cover salary and/or send a prospect to the team receiving either player. When it comes to needing a backup catcher, the Twins have Jair Camargo who could fill the role, which would make Jeffers the primary catcher in 2025. In an attempt to be reasonable, I am going to open up only half of what both Paddack and Vázquez are owed, which gives me an additional $8.75 million to work with. These moves (in addition to excluding Castro) leaves the payroll at $119.05 million, with roughly $14.75 million to spend.

Replacing Willi Castro
My decision to move on from Castro doesn’t have anything to do with what I think of his production, but simply comes down to the dollars. I think we can recreate his versatility and production with less money. It’s been reported that the St. Louis Cardinals are looking to reduce payroll in 2025, as they look at a multi-year rebuild. I recently wrote about super-utility Brendan Donovan, whom I would love to see the Twins pursue via trade, as someone who could arguably be an upgrade over the 2024 Twins MVP. While I’m not going to get into details of what a trade for the 28-year-old might look like, I’ll at least mention that it’s not going to be cheap given his age, versatility, production, and having three years of team control. Alas, Cot’s projects him to get $4 million in his first year of arbitration, which saves us $2 million (and gives us two extra years) compared to retaining Castro’s services in 2025. This move puts the payroll at $123.05 million and leaves us with $10.75 million to spend.

Left-Handed Relief
As the 40-man roster sits now, Kody Funderburk is the only left-handed reliever coming out of the Twins bullpen. That needs to be addressed. If we look internally, the Twins do have four left-handed pitchers in their top two levels, three of whom are Rule 5-eligible and two of whom have virtually no relief experience. For a team looking to compete in 2025, they’re going to have to fill this void via trade or free agency. Scott Alexander is a cheap name who stands out to me, after a season that saw him throw 38 ⅔ innings of relief for the Oakland Athletics for just $2.25 million. He posted a 2.56 ERA / 3.89 FIP with a 10% K-BB rate, as an extreme groundball pitcher. While I do have concerns how that would pair with our infield defense, I think he would be a serviceable low- to medium-leverage reliever and would only cost the Twins a few million dollars on the open market. Considering he’s 35 years old with an unspectacular career résumé and experienced some left rotator cuff tendonitis in 2025, I think he could be added on a one-year deal for $4 million. This move puts the payroll at $127.25 million, with $6.75 million left to spend.

Infield Depth
I’ll be very interested to see the market value for Carlos Santana coming off a Gold Glove season. I’m not going to completely rule out a return to the Twins, but it does seem unlikely. His departure (in addition to Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, and Castro) needs to be addressed. When it comes to first base, I recently suggested that José Miranda is more than capable of getting the lion’s share at the position.

While Donovan can play all around the dirt, it’s worth noting that in 2024, he only played second, third, and left field. We also have rumors that the Twins could move Royce Lewis to second, creating an opening at third, which would likely be filled by Brooks Lee. Regardless of how that puzzle is put together, there is a level of uncertainty surrounding the infield depth players currently on the 40-man roster in Camargo, Michael Helman, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin, and I don’t foresee anyone in upper levels making an impact in 2025. As a competitive team, I need a solid, versatile bench bat and I’m looking at former Twins utility infielder Donovan Solano. Coming off a 2023 season wherein he posted a 116 wRC+ and a 1.3 fWAR campaign with our Twins, he didn't sign until two weeks into the 2024 season with the San Diego Padres. It was a one-year pact for $1 million, and he produced another above-average season, playing both corner infield spots and second base. I'd venture to guess he’d sign a similar deal to play in 2025, so I'm going to put him at 1 year, $2 million, giving us less than $5 million left in our budget.

Corner Outfield v. LHP
Nearing the end of our budget, the biggest hole I have on my roster is a corner outfield bat that will be on the short side of a loose platoon with Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Although a left-handed bat, another reason I like Brendan Donovan is that he can be serviceable against left-handed pitching—something Wallner and Larnach cannot say, to this point in their careers. Still, Donovan has been a below-average hitter against southpaws, and we need someone who can fill that gap. One name I really like is Mark Canha, who can also play first, but he will net more than what we have left to spend. For now, I don’t plan on addressing this need, because I want to leave the opportunity for the younger guys on our roster to really prove whether they will be relegated to platoon roles, including Wallner and Larnach. This also includes Martin, who carried a 93 wRC+ against lefties, and DaShawn Kiersey Jr. I’m also learning from the Twins' mistakes in 2024, where they essentially couldn’t improve at the deadline due to financial constraints. Leaving roughly $5 million to play around with isn’t a lot, but at least allows some room for improvement during the season.

You may have noticed I didn’t do much to improve the bullpen, but I am banking on Funderburk, Stewart, Topa, and even Ronny Henriquez to be healthy in 2025, which would boost the bullpen. And again, I left myself wiggle room to add to the roster if it’s needed.

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[rickyriolo]

Trade Jake Cave to the Yankees for Rookie of the Year Luis Gil

[gmwannabe]

A 35 year old lefty with rotator cuff issues? A hard pass on Solano and Canha, no more aging vets. We still need a catcher to replace Vasquez which will require a couple of our  top prospects or Duran and a lesser prospect if you want Teel or Rushing. 

[Vanimal46]

I too would like to press the force trade button on MLB the Show to salary dump some players and acquire other players with no detail required. This article reads like something you were forced to do, and not something you wanted to do. 

[RpR]

Solano could be a good idea.

Jeffers and Camargo, two run at will catchers, 🤢

After one year, Camargo would probably  be called Camargone.

[bean5302]

Since I didn't see a final roster in the post:
C - Ryan Jeffers
1B - Jose Miranda
2B - Royce Lewis
3B - Brooks Lee
SS - Carlos Correa
LF - Trevor Larnach
CF - Byron Buxton
RF - Matt Wallner
DH - Donovan Solano
BC - Jair Camargo
UI/UO - Brendan Donovan
UO - Austin Martin
UO - DeShawn Keirsey
AAA Depth - Edouard Julien, Payton Eeles, Emmanuel Rodriguez

Rotation?
SP1 - Pablo Lopez
SP2 - Joe Ryan
SP3 - Bailey Ober
SP4 - Simeon Woods Richardson
SP5 - David Festa
AAA Depth - Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya

Bullpen
BP1 - Jhoan Duran
BP2 - Griffin Jax
BP3 - Brock Stewart
BP4 - Justin Topa
BP5 - Ronny Henriquez
BP6 - Kody Funderburk
BP7 - Scott Alexander
BP8 - Jorge Alcala
AAA Depth - Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Matt Canterino

In the scenario the Twins non-tender Willi Castro or trade him for something not relevant to the roster. Vazquez and Paddack are moved with no relevant return by covering half their salaries.

All in all, I think this is probably an 84-85 win team.

[Reptevia]

I think you have moved things around without significant improvement. Still looks like a 73-78 win team if people are healthy. 

[LambchoP]

Since we probably won't be able to do all three due to salary, the Twins need to upgrade one, if not two of these areas. First base, RH outfielder, preferably who can cover center field well enough, and a LHRP for our pen. I think the bullpen and first base should be priority since I believe some combo of Keirsey, Martin, Castro and maybe Mccusker can handle the 4rth outfielder role until Rodriguez, Rosario and Jenkins are eventually ready to take over.

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, Reptevia said:

I think you have moved things around without significant improvement. Still looks like a 73-78 win team if people are healthy. 

I'd agree the team probably hasn't improved, but 73-78 win team is way lower than projections based on WAR. It'd probably take injuries to Lopez, Correa and a couple others to flop that hard.

[Major League Ready]

The 4th OFer is not where I would spend whatever payroll room we have.  I might very well be overly optimistic but I would give Hellman a shot to start the season and I don't want to block Rodriquez.  I would like to see him here June 1.  He hits both handed pitching and he's a good defender who can cover CF in Buxton's absence.  I know that banking on him is optimistic but I don't see any great danger in this given we are talking about the 4th OFer.  Hellman and Kiersey can't be that much worse than someone else acquired as a 4th OFer.

The 1st allocation of funds is probably a LH RP.  1st base is a big question mark but it's a question with a few different potential solutions.  One of them is Miranda.  While not ideal, he has a reasonable floor.  Again, it may be too optimistic but having seen some of his hot streaks, it seems like there could be considerable ceiling there to be captured.  It's also an easier position to swing a trade to cover.   Perhaps they could find a MLB ready 1B in trade for Castro or Paddack although there is a lot of starting pitching available via free agency that probably won't cost much more than Paddack..

[Doctor Gast]

Matt, I think your plan may be better than what Falvey will come up with. Last season would have been easy to come up with a serious contender, having a tremendous core that broke the postseason curse pretty intact. The only real loss was Gray, which could have been resolved by trading away very good yet unnecessary young prospects & or players for an affordable top-end SP. That plus Ober & Ryan taking an expected step forward we'd have a more superior team than the original '23 team. But that wasn't done instead they invested in dead money (DeSclavani & Topa) & became overly dependent on Paddack & rookies.

The 1st big mistake was announcing that we were having a Fire Sale, come & give us your best offer. Falvey should have kept his mouth shut & actively shopped our fat & dead money, I'd go to CO & strike a deal that'd greatly benefit them, we'd receive players we need & we'd be freed from Dobnak's dead $3M (CO desperately need SPs, Dobnak would fit in there being a GB SP or RP). Paddack has value & could be shopped w/o having to pay a penalty. Paddack ($7.5M) can easily be replaced with a more affordable one via trade. Or now we can have Jax take that SP spot & find an even more affordable high-leverage RP via trade. Now that SP hole from last year wasn't filled, it still needs to be filled via trade.

I prefer Castro over Donovan. Castro is a true a true super utility player that adds valuable depth in premium mid-field positions, where Donovan mainly is good on cOF & 3B. W/o Castro valuable contributions up the middle IMO we wouldn't have recovered from our 1st slump.

I hate Falvey's "creativity" (creativity is proactive not passive) which means comprimizing the core to frivolously pay for players we don't need. Opting out from better inhouse options for more expensive inferior outside players. This offseason from last we have lost some chemistry, the core has been compromised, the main hole from last season is still open that needs to be filled, Our essential young players missed out on 1 year of valuable experience. Falvey's weird analytics where 1B glove trumps the bat & catcher's bat trumps the glove. I like very much our core from '23 IMO we can still salvage a winning team but Zoll needs to override Falvey's creativity. Stop wasting money in FA & use that money to secure our future key players.

I have total faith in this core but I have zero faith in Falvey. Even though we have a great core, because of Falvey's creativity I see us only getting worse. That said (I can't believe I'm saying this) IMO our best solution is to blow the whole thing up. Correa & Lopez are invaluable in the postseason but because of Falvey we'll never get there, So why pay for the luxury of having them? I know our farm system is so bloated from hoarding but we desperately need a primary catcher for not only now but the future & to fill it with depth there. Either way, I wouldn't trade Vazquez (no I'm not in love with him or his money), even with an analytical-driven team, yes mentorship is still valuable. Plus we'd have to give up a lot to move him. Jeffers is not a primary catcher now or in the future, So why keep him around to tempt Falvey to extend him with an exorbitant Boras salary? There is a big need & it would be easy to move him to obtain a very promising young MLB-ready in exchange. Either way, I'd trade Jeffers.

[tony&rodney]

The problem for this roster is similar to many, poor defense at 5 positions with maybe one plus and two average defenders. No player to back up Correa might be a disaster. A ground ball pitcher with that infield won't make it to June. 

To be fair, everyone who believes that catching the ball is remotely important is struggling to put together a roster. The payroll is less of a problem than finding infielders and outfielders to turn routine plays into outs. Those who are hoping that the situation miraculously changes using the current roster are finding increasingly creative means to justify their stances, which is natural and understandable. 

The future is unknown and rolling back a largely similar roster faces long odds versus improved AL Central foes. Nevertheless, as Twins fans, we pick our team to win the World Series in 2025.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

...I'd go to CO & strike a deal that'd greatly benefit them, we'd receive players we need & we'd be freed from Dobnak's dead $3M (CO desperately need SPs, Dobnak would fit in there being a GB SP or RP). Paddack has value & could be shopped w/o having to pay a penalty. Paddack ($7.5M) can easily be replaced with a more affordable one via trade...

I continue to see this narrative that we can just cast off our negative value multi-million dollar players onto other teams because they're "desperate" for one thing or another. There are plenty of fringe MLB caliber reclamation projects with a higher likelihood of success than a guy like Dobnak, and those reclamation projects will be cheaper, too.

Colorado is on record as wanting to drop payroll, and they were so desperate for pitching, they passed on grabbing Dobnak off waivers multiple times last year, along with 28 other teams. I don't think Dobnak is any better than Dallas Keuchel or Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are available for a MiLB deal. There is no reason to grab Dobnak at $3MM because of desperation.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

There is no reason to grab Dobnak at $3MM because of desperation.

Agree. 

Is it possible to move Dobnak via the international bonus money?

Personally, I keep the guy unless something easy pops up, which is tough to imagine right now.

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I continue to see this narrative that we can just cast off our negative value multi-million dollar players onto other teams because they're "desperate" for one thing or another. There are plenty of fringe MLB caliber reclamation projects with a higher likelihood of success than a guy like Dobnak, and those reclamation projects will be cheaper, too.

Colorado is on record as wanting to drop payroll, and they were so desperate for pitching, they passed on grabbing Dobnak off waivers multiple times last year, along with 28 other teams. I don't think Dobnak is any better than Dallas Keuchel or Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are available for a MiLB deal. There is no reason to grab Dobnak at $3MM because of desperation.

Of course, no one will take a chance on Dobnak with a $3M price tag on him off waivers. But if you have an incentive to fill holes with a deficit trading value plus you can DFA him knowing no one will claim him, has it's advantages. Twins can move Dobnak if they have the initiative & true creativity to do so. But they probably have the same mindset as you. Since Dobnak is a bad investment, we can't make anyone take him. Vazquez is a bad investment why is there talk about trading him? Dobnak has some value for the Twins just not $3M worth. He has greater value for the Rox & given the right incentive, we can move him. You just have to get out of that negative mindset & try. not sit back & wait for ROX to make an offer.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Vazquez is a bad investment why is there talk about trading him? Dobnak has some value for the Twins just not $3M worth. He has greater value for the Rox & given the right incentive, we can move him.

Vazquez can actually play baseball at an MLB caliber level. He's overpaid but he's not useless like Dobnak. Dobnak has no value for anyone. Who wants a washed-up pitcher who can only help you lose ballgames? If you give the Rockies a little more than $3M to take him they might accept. To get anyone to take Dobnak you'll have to give them something they think is more valuable than $3M.

[Doctor Gast]

38 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To get anyone to take Dobnak you'll have to give them something they think is more valuable than $3M.

Bingo!

Twins never approached LAD & said we really need Margot, let's make a deal. No, LAD didn't want Margot so they convinced the Twins that we needed Margot & gave a little incentive that TB gave them. From the beginning, I said we needed Margot like we needed a hole in our head.

I sincerely believe that Dobnak can help CO (I always try to find out what the other teams' needs are before offering a trade). By giving CO added trade value (more than $3M) while filling their needs would incentivate them to give Dobnak a chance to help them.

[bean5302]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

...To get anyone to take Dobnak you'll have to give them something they think is more valuable than $3M.

 

40 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Bingo!...

Why wouldn't the Twins just release Dobnak and eat the $3MM rather than giving Colorado (or some more likely hypothetical team) back more than $3MM of value?

Sure, we could give the hypothetical trade partner Cory Lewis for taking Dobnak off our hands so they could turn around and potentially give Dobber his unconditional release, but is that honestly a good way to save a relatively insignificant $2-3MM (depending on if the Twins use the money to add a 26 man guy)?

When you're talking about Paddack or Vazquez, sure, that's a lot of salary savings. Dobnak doesn't have a significant impact, and casting off significant prospects to save a pittance is a very tough sell to my logic.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I continue to see this narrative that we can just cast off our negative value multi-million dollar players onto other teams because they're "desperate" for one thing or another. There are plenty of fringe MLB caliber reclamation projects with a higher likelihood of success than a guy like Dobnak, and those reclamation projects will be cheaper, too.

Colorado is on record as wanting to drop payroll, and they were so desperate for pitching, they passed on grabbing Dobnak off waivers multiple times last year, along with 28 other teams. I don't think Dobnak is any better than Dallas Keuchel or Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are available for a MiLB deal. There is no reason to grab Dobnak at $3MM because of desperation.

I completely agree on cast-offs/Dobnack. Can’t just wish them onto another club.

Seems though, if Team can pay part of other’s salaries to move them, Dobnack may be in this group as well. Maybe team covers $1.25M and sends an A ball prospect? That leaves $1.75M for “other team” to cover. Seems it’s going to be a one way deal though with no real return. That’s OK - they would be giving Dobnack an opportunity and saving “some amount”.

I would think that a Julien & Paddack trade could net somebody with more than just a pulse - right? Paddack and somebody else with value.

Personally, I think Paddack is a big plus for 75 innings through the year from the Pen. Lefties, IMO, are in place with Funderburk - Moran - Headrick. Seems those 3 guys competing for a spot is a better option than signing a big maybe in his 30’s - there are a handful of those guys out there.

I trade Duran & Castro (why non tender and get no value back?) & Jeffers. ($14.7M moved) Those 3 may all go to one team to get a real catcher with youth. Camargo is not a real MLB option.

Paddack & Vazquez are in the $135M on the books now. If they can cost share a positive $1M for Dobnack plus the other $14.7m, that’s $15.7M to spend. The 3 guys traded would be replaced by $800K x 3 spots or $2.4M. This now leaves $13.3M to spend……add Tonkin’s release……$14.8M to soend

Pen:

Varland - Henriquez - Alcala - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa  - Headrick - Funderburk - Moran - Jax…….11 guys that seem to be in the mix.

Rotation is static:

Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Festa - SWR plus 3-4 guys at AAA.

13 man:

Lewis/Miranda - Correa/Lee - Keaschall/Lee - Miranda/Keaschall

Vazquez & young Catcher via trade

Martin - Kiersey - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner

I would trade Matthews - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Julien - Martin………whatever combination needed, to get a guy like Westburg or Tristan Casas to play 1B.

Can keep $10M to spend at the deadline (Aug. 1 - Sept. 30) for whatever is needed.

…………………..

Could dump Paddack and sign Santana for $5.5………..then take the roughly $18M left and try to sign O’ Neil as an OF bat and move Martin to AAA……..big maybe?

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

When you're talking about Paddack or Vazquez, sure, that's a lot of salary savings. Dobnak doesn't have a significant impact, and casting off significant prospects to save a pittance is a very tough sell to my logic.

That is the mentality that killed us last season. "Oh! we can't make a trade to fill an important need because we can't give up "significant" prospects, We can trade important players to shed payroll, & with that savings we can waste it on frivolous salaries to pay players that do nothing for us."

I'm not talking about "significant" prospects or young players. I'm talking about prospects & young players who have value who are redundant, not needed, and should be traded to acquire players who fill an important hole in our team that helps to win. What's more important? Twins winning or keep hoarding prospects in an already bloated farm?

$3M is a lot of money in a tight budget with needs like extending key players. The main idea is to trim fat. You save $3M of fat (players that can be easily substituted by a cheaper player) here, $7.5M there & another $5M. Stop paying frivolous salaries on players we don't need. All this adds up so you don't have to cut muscle. 

To be "creative" isn't putting up a Fire Sale sign, sit back & expect to get a viable offer. Yes, this way your get offers on Paddack & Vazquez but all of them are crappy & they'll pick the least crappy and they probably won't get any offers on Dobnak. To be creative you have to be proactive, this is being passive. As I explained to DSL44, Our only hope is for this FO to be proactive. Case in point- LAD wanted Glasnow, and to get Glasnow they had to take Margot. In this case, LAD wisely didn't want Margot but they took him anyway knowing full well they were going to flip him (MN never flips the undesirable players they receive, they eat them, yet they are a constant target to be flipped to). To move Dobnak for a passive FO it's not only difficult it is impossible. That's why I'm calling for this FO to be proactive.

I'm not asking MN to scam CO like we were. I'm asking MN to be proactive & offer CO a mutually beneficial offer. This is not an offer that I think this FO will do, it's an offer that I think they should do.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

That is the mentality that killed us last season. "Oh! we can't make a trade to fill an important need because we can't give up "significant" prospects, We can trade important players to shed payroll, & with that savings we can waste it on frivolous salaries to pay players that do nothing for us."

I'm not talking about "significant" prospects or young players. I'm talking about prospects & young players who have value who are redundant, not needed, and should be traded to acquire players who fill an important hole in our team that helps to win. What's more important? Twins winning or keep hoarding prospects in an already bloated farm?...

I think you're going to find you're in the minority if you'd like to cast off a top 10-ish prospect to unload $2-3MM of salary, and yes, I do expect it would cost a significant prospect for any team to consider taking on Randy Dobnak's contract. +50-100% the negative equity (all of it) for a realistic scenario at where a team jumps on the deal. Again, they're likely just going to give Dobber his unconditional release in this trade scenario. He'd struggle to get a MiLB deal right now.