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Before we get into the moves, let’s establish constraints that need to be followed in order to make this realistic. Would I love to see the Twins pursue Juan Soto? Absolutely. Is that realistic? Absolutely not. And the primary reason for that, other than the infeasibility of him joining a small-market team, is that the Twins have a self-imposed salary cap. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins currently have roughly $137 million on the books in 2025, which includes the players who are arbitration-eligible, such as Willi Castro. It’s been reported that the Twins will not look to reduce payroll for the second consecutive season and, even with a new broadcast deal, it’s safe to assume they won’t be looking to raise payroll, either. So the biggest constraint we have to work with is keeping the payroll around the $137 million figure at which it currently sits. We also have to leave space for 40-man roster additions, who will cost $800,000 each. I'm going to account for four players totaling $3.2 million, so I'll use $133.8 million as the target payroll. Another move to consider is whether Griffin Jax will transition to a starting role in 2025, but that will not be a part of my blueprint: I personally think that’s a terrible idea. With all that laid out, let’s get into the moves.
Creating “Cap” Space
The Twins have 11 players on whom to make arbitration decisions in the coming weeks, and if they were to tender all of the players a contract it would cost roughly $32.6 million, using Cot’s projections. I'm including Jorge Alcalá in this group, since he is arbitration-eligible, but he would instead be retained via an option at $1.5 million. One way or another, I don’t think Willi Castro should be with the Twins next season, and whether he is non-tendered or tendered and then traded, I am freeing the Twins of his $6 million projection. I am also opening up $1.575 million by non-tendering right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin. I am picking up Alcalá’s option and tendering the rest of the 2024-2025 class, which includes Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Durán, Trevor Larnach, Griffin Jax, Royce Lewis, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart.
Next, we turn our sights to players who have guaranteed contracts, but whom we could look to move. We’ve created a series of articles for a few of these players, but the two I am going to do nearly whatever it takes to move are right-handed starter Chris Paddack ($7.5 million) and catcher Christian Vázquez ($10 million). To make that happen, especially in the case of Vázquez, the Twins may have to help cover salary and/or send a prospect to the team receiving either player. When it comes to needing a backup catcher, the Twins have Jair Camargo who could fill the role, which would make Jeffers the primary catcher in 2025. In an attempt to be reasonable, I am going to open up only half of what both Paddack and Vázquez are owed, which gives me an additional $8.75 million to work with. These moves (in addition to excluding Castro) leaves the payroll at $119.05 million, with roughly $14.75 million to spend.
Replacing Willi Castro
My decision to move on from Castro doesn’t have anything to do with what I think of his production, but simply comes down to the dollars. I think we can recreate his versatility and production with less money. It’s been reported that the St. Louis Cardinals are looking to reduce payroll in 2025, as they look at a multi-year rebuild. I recently wrote about super-utility Brendan Donovan, whom I would love to see the Twins pursue via trade, as someone who could arguably be an upgrade over the 2024 Twins MVP. While I’m not going to get into details of what a trade for the 28-year-old might look like, I’ll at least mention that it’s not going to be cheap given his age, versatility, production, and having three years of team control. Alas, Cot’s projects him to get $4 million in his first year of arbitration, which saves us $2 million (and gives us two extra years) compared to retaining Castro’s services in 2025. This move puts the payroll at $123.05 million and leaves us with $10.75 million to spend.
Left-Handed Relief
As the 40-man roster sits now, Kody Funderburk is the only left-handed reliever coming out of the Twins bullpen. That needs to be addressed. If we look internally, the Twins do have four left-handed pitchers in their top two levels, three of whom are Rule 5-eligible and two of whom have virtually no relief experience. For a team looking to compete in 2025, they’re going to have to fill this void via trade or free agency. Scott Alexander is a cheap name who stands out to me, after a season that saw him throw 38 ⅔ innings of relief for the Oakland Athletics for just $2.25 million. He posted a 2.56 ERA / 3.89 FIP with a 10% K-BB rate, as an extreme groundball pitcher. While I do have concerns how that would pair with our infield defense, I think he would be a serviceable low- to medium-leverage reliever and would only cost the Twins a few million dollars on the open market. Considering he’s 35 years old with an unspectacular career résumé and experienced some left rotator cuff tendonitis in 2025, I think he could be added on a one-year deal for $4 million. This move puts the payroll at $127.25 million, with $6.75 million left to spend.
Infield Depth
I’ll be very interested to see the market value for Carlos Santana coming off a Gold Glove season. I’m not going to completely rule out a return to the Twins, but it does seem unlikely. His departure (in addition to Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, and Castro) needs to be addressed. When it comes to first base, I recently suggested that José Miranda is more than capable of getting the lion’s share at the position.
While Donovan can play all around the dirt, it’s worth noting that in 2024, he only played second, third, and left field. We also have rumors that the Twins could move Royce Lewis to second, creating an opening at third, which would likely be filled by Brooks Lee. Regardless of how that puzzle is put together, there is a level of uncertainty surrounding the infield depth players currently on the 40-man roster in Camargo, Michael Helman, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin, and I don’t foresee anyone in upper levels making an impact in 2025. As a competitive team, I need a solid, versatile bench bat and I’m looking at former Twins utility infielder Donovan Solano. Coming off a 2023 season wherein he posted a 116 wRC+ and a 1.3 fWAR campaign with our Twins, he didn't sign until two weeks into the 2024 season with the San Diego Padres. It was a one-year pact for $1 million, and he produced another above-average season, playing both corner infield spots and second base. I'd venture to guess he’d sign a similar deal to play in 2025, so I'm going to put him at 1 year, $2 million, giving us less than $5 million left in our budget.
Corner Outfield v. LHP
Nearing the end of our budget, the biggest hole I have on my roster is a corner outfield bat that will be on the short side of a loose platoon with Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Although a left-handed bat, another reason I like Brendan Donovan is that he can be serviceable against left-handed pitching—something Wallner and Larnach cannot say, to this point in their careers. Still, Donovan has been a below-average hitter against southpaws, and we need someone who can fill that gap. One name I really like is Mark Canha, who can also play first, but he will net more than what we have left to spend. For now, I don’t plan on addressing this need, because I want to leave the opportunity for the younger guys on our roster to really prove whether they will be relegated to platoon roles, including Wallner and Larnach. This also includes Martin, who carried a 93 wRC+ against lefties, and DaShawn Kiersey Jr. I’m also learning from the Twins' mistakes in 2024, where they essentially couldn’t improve at the deadline due to financial constraints. Leaving roughly $5 million to play around with isn’t a lot, but at least allows some room for improvement during the season.
You may have noticed I didn’t do much to improve the bullpen, but I am banking on Funderburk, Stewart, Topa, and even Ronny Henriquez to be healthy in 2025, which would boost the bullpen. And again, I left myself wiggle room to add to the roster if it’s needed.
What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Twins roster and hit the button below!
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