Griffin Jax to Move to the Rotation?

[Matthew Lenz]

While it's been mostly speculation to this point, it seems the idea to move Griffin Jax to the starting rotation is picking up steam.

What started as an interesting article by Eno Sarris of The Athletic ($$) on the impact of a reliever moving into the rotation was followed up by this tweet from Mark Ferrin of MLB Network.

So nothing set in stone, yet, but definitely more than just speculation at this point.

Before becoming one of the leagues best relievers, Jax did come up as a starter through the Twins system and even made 14 Big League starts in 2021. He wasn't even a little bit effective as a starter, posting a 6.10 ERA / 6.24 FIP with an abysmal 9.9% K-BB rate. Of course, he's had time to master his craft and it's reasonable to think he would perform much better in a starters role in 2025 and beyond.

As pointed out by our own Cody Pirkl, it would be an odd move from a roster/organizational perspective.

Do you think the Twins should move Jax to the rotation?

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[nicksaviking]

I vote no:

[Danchat]

Why mess with success? Jax was an unmitigated disaster in the rotation and he was our best reliever last season. The bullpen needs more talent in it, not less. Feels like they might be prepping for trading one of their starters away.

[dxpavelka]

Sure.  Take a guy with ZERO bullpen experience (Duran) and move him to the bullpen and then take a guy who floundered as a starter, found himself in the pen and make him a starter.

[Jim wyllie]

I think if Jax is the one who wants to try starting again then perhaps trading him would be the best route then wt least we can get bullpen help in return 

[LambchoP]

I don't like it. We have enough starters coming up through the minors that are going to be competing for innings. Jax is potentially our best reliever. We are one or two moves from having an elite pen. Don't mess with success as someone else said:)

[Otaknam]

If Jax wants a chance to start give him a shot. Unlike others opinions  posted here, the Twins’ starting staff isn’t proven and deep, aside from Lopez, Ober, and Ryan. While they have a number of minor leaguers looking for a chance, and Festa and Matthews, none of these guys are can’t miss prospects. Varland has been unsuccessful as a starter, but has shown he could potentially fill Jax’s role in the bullpen. If Jax struggles after a half dozen starts, move him back to the bullpen. 

[JD-TWINS]

NO to Jax starting.

Trade Duran with another piece for a bat. Move Jax to closer - he can make more $$ there medium/long term. Everybody’s happy.

[Mike Sixel]

Eno says he's a very different pitcher than last time, and thinks it might work I bet good money they try it. 

[stringer bell]

BBRef has an item on this topic:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/twins-rumors-griffin-jax-rotation-starter.html

The article makes quite a bit of sense for a team trying to do more with less money. 

[Seth Stohs]

On 11/13/2024 at 6:01 PM, Danchat said:

Why mess with success? Jax was an unmitigated disaster in the rotation and he was our best reliever last season. The bullpen needs more talent in it, not less. Feels like they might be prepping for trading one of their starters away.

I don't care what Jax did in his first 15 or 18 or however many/few starts as a rookie. He's a completely different pitcher now. But I tend to agree with the "why mess with success?" thinking. I wonder how he would have to change his approach to be able to throw 75-95 pitches in a game. He's so valuable out of the bullpen because he airs it out for 1 innings at a time. He thrives on that adrenaline. You just can't be that hyped for 4-6 innings as a starter. Just can't. So, I think there are challenges and concerns that are fair. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins seem pretty settled with their starting pitching. There are some who have been somewhat dismissive of Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, and even more so for Zebby Matthews. Put just a couple of fair defenders in front of these guys and watch them flourish. Jax might be a candidate for starting but the Twins should value ($) him as a pen arm. I'm not too keen on this plan.

[nicksaviking]

This sounds an awful lot like the team catering to the pitchers wishes. We've seen pitchers make this request before, but they tend to end up on another team.

So Jax and Varland want to be starters. I guess that means if Festa and SWR aren't being vocal, they get sent to the pen? Sure, why not.

I don't run a baseball team, but to me, this doesn't bode well for the end of the Pohlad era.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I feel like there are 3 options here, 2 more likely...

1) They truly are going to try him as a starter, as they think he could be a high end starter. If he can transition and his stuff and command stay about the same, theoretically it could work.

2) They are open to trading him, and they are saying this to build up his potential value. There are probably teams out there asking about him thinking they can turn him to a starter ongoing, and the Twins would want starter level value back in trade vs reliever level value coming back.

 

IF both of these don't happen, obviously he is a high end reliever. But relievers can be so fungible in terms of results year to year.

[nicksaviking]

41 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I feel like there are 3 options here, 2 more likely...

1) They truly are going to try him as a starter, as they think he could be a high end starter. If he can transition and his stuff and command stay about the same, theoretically it could work.

2) They are open to trading him, and they are saying this to build up his potential value. There are probably teams out there asking about him thinking they can turn him to a starter ongoing, and the Twins would want starter level value back in trade vs reliever level value coming back.

 

IF both of these don't happen, obviously he is a high end reliever. But relievers can be so fungible in terms of results year to year.

Jax's value has to be extremely high already, I'm not sure it would improve a ton by dangling the starter angle, but I suppose it doesn't hurt.

I generally have no interest in trading him, particularly if it's just more prospects. But if this talk of him starting is because he's demanding/aggressively asking for it, then I almost think you have to. This team absolutely CANNOT let one player dictate where he wants to play unless they're going to let all the players with leverage to do the same. They're already walking a thin line with Royce Lewis. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Jax's value has to be extremely high already, I'm not sure it would improve a ton by dangling the starter angle, but I suppose it doesn't hurt.

I generally have no interest in trading him, particularly if it's just more prospects. But if this talk of him starting is because he's demanding/aggressively asking for it, then I almost think you have to. This team absolutely CANNOT let one player dictate where he wants to play unless they're going to let all the players with leverage to do the same. They're already walking a thin line with Royce Lewis. 

Yeah see, to me I wouldn't trade him for prospects either. I would very much listen to bring back a player or players that can help the 2025 roster. And my value for him would be VERY high.

[Danchat]

12 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

I don't care what Jax did in his first 15 or 18 or however many/few starts as a rookie. He's a completely different pitcher now. But I tend to agree with the "why mess with success?" thinking. I wonder how he would have to change his approach to be able to throw 75-95 pitches in a game. He's so valuable out of the bullpen because he airs it out for 1 innings at a time. He thrives on that adrenaline. You just can't be that hyped for 4-6 innings as a starter. Just can't. So, I think there are challenges and concerns that are fair. 

The second half of your post explains why I care about Jax's first handful of starts - his stuff was far more hittable when he was trying to go multiple innings. I'm sure he has improved and tweaked his pitches in other respects, but the whole concept of "airing it out 1 inning at a time" and "adrenaline" is the reason why so many AAAA starters become good to great relievers. There is some recent precedent to relievers going back to being starters - Lugo and Littell (a guy who looked just like Jax as a starter) come to mind - but it's risky. Especially when we know that this team isn't going to sign a bullpen replacement in free agency.

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, Danchat said:

The second half of your post explains why I care about Jax's first handful of starts - his stuff was far more hittable when he was trying to go multiple innings. I'm sure he has improved and tweaked his pitches in other respects, but the whole concept of "airing it out 1 inning at a time" and "adrenaline" is the reason why so many AAAA starters become good to great relievers. There is some recent precedent to relievers going back to being starters - Lugo and Littell (a guy who looked just like Jax as a starter) come to mind - but it's risky. Especially when we know that this team isn't going to sign a bullpen replacement in free agency.

If Jax can't keep his velocity up as a starter, I don't understand how they think he'll keep the results.

Lugo and Littell never threw that hard to begin with. They didn't have a 5 MPH velocity discrepancy to deal with.

[stringer bell]

The BBRef article said that Jax' velo uptick is more than the standard for someone transitioning to the bullpen. It would figure that Jax would maintain most of the increase in velocity he has achieved. He has also added more plus pitches even while converting to a bullpen arm.

There are no certainties, but it is possible Jax could become an elite starting pitcher. The economic realities are that it would be good for both Jax and the Twins if he could become that type of starting pitcher. 

[FargoFanMan]

Hard NO!!! Yes the metrics are good. Yes he probably wants this and yes the Twins might entertain this. It may have worked for a few guys last year around the league. Yet it’s a hard no. This screams Terry Ryan regime messing with a guy who just needs to take his role and improve himself based on being a late inning stopper. If you ramp his innings up in spring trying him out as a starter does that limit his effectiveness come august and September? Does it expose injury stresses beings he hasn’t started in years? Idk. Just seems like an experiment that doesn’t need to happen. Especially when you’ve got a bunch of depth knocking at the door coming through.

[mikelink45]

I went to trades and rumors to see what was happening on the FA market and was surprised that there was no mention of Farmer signing with the Rockies.   I know that he was a FA and we declined to sign him, but I still am interested in where our former Twins go.